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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Can someone fill me in on why Harper is using the economy shtick when that's been a failure as well?

Standard operating procedure for conservatives everywhere. Low information voters reflexively think that conservatives will be less likely to cause dramatic shifts in economic policies and maintain a stable, growing economy despite globally overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, when societal anxiety is higher conservative policies are more attractive since they are rooted in fear.

Ironically, unless an extreme disaster occurs (such as the financial crash just before the 2008 election), conservatives do better by creating a poor economy and societal unrest which is why the Republicans in the USA will do everything they can to undermine Obama's policies in particular and America in general.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Quitting as an MP forcing a midterm election in Spadina to go into a mayoral race then decide to run again as an MP is like uhhh no respect for tax payers who foot the bill for the cost of midterm elections + lack of respect for voters who voted for her in 2011.
Eh, she thought she had a chance because of the Ford stuff so why not. Too bad she didn't expect a third choice candidate to show up and be the anti-Ford candidate.

I guess that's the story of this election too. lol
 

Stet

Banned
Ok so the dollar is the metric of a failing economy?

When most of the rest of the Western world is doing fine, it's a good bet that your citizens losing one full quarter of their buying power means you're doing something wrong.
 
So in contrast to all those editorials that take a side, Macleans has decided to endorse...long campaigns. Also, Trudeau and/or Harper. But mainly long campaigns:

The outsized length of the 2015 campaign has been a frequent source of complaint from many corners. Yet elections are the only opportunity citizens have to directly control the future of their country and, in narrowing the field to two well-defined and credible main contenders, Canadian voters have had to think carefully about what really matters to them and why. It’s been time well spent.

Ominously, someone snapped some pictures of moving vans wheeling boxes of documents out of the PMO this morning:

CRccGiSUsAEGAiS.jpg

CRccCz6UYAAF-VZ.jpg

And lastly, a Twitter data analytics company suggests this could be the result on Monday:


That's:
Liberals 37.2
Conservatives 32.2
NDP 15.8


I don't know how much it can be trusted, since it seems like Twitter and Google understate NDP support a little (at least, based on how the NDP fared in terms of online traffic following the debates), but it may not be insane -- Ekos' pollster said that his polling was showing the Liberals & Conservatives getting the bulk of support in the advance polls, and this would match up with that. Forum also found that NDP support was much, much softer than the other parties which 1) LOL Forum, and 2) would seem to support this analysis.
 
I think the only hope of the next president successfully removing ourselves from TPP would be if Bernie was elected. Hilldawg would express her disapproval of it but say it would be inappropriate for her to take down a part of Obama's legacy. She would probably make vague motions at "improving it" that ultimately go nowhere.

she's already explicitly campaigning against it and that, by itself, makes it fairly likely to get shitcanned under a Clinton administration
 

Sean C

Member
Can someone fill me in on why Harper is using the economy shtick when that's been a failure as well?
What else has he got?

Quitting as an MP forcing a midterm election in Spadina to go into a mayoral race then decide to run again as an MP is like uhhh no respect for tax payers who foot the bill for the cost of midterm elections + lack of respect for voters who voted for her in 2011.
My all-time favourite example of this is Kevin MacAdam, who resigned his provincial riding in 2000 to run federally for the PCs in the general election that year -- he lost, at which point he ran in the by-election for his vacated provincial seat and went back to the legislature. He then quit midway through his next term to go take a job working for Peter MacKay.
 

Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
Quitting as an MP forcing a midterm election in Spadina to go into a mayoral race then decide to run again as an MP is like uhhh no respect for tax payers who foot the bill for the cost of midterm elections + lack of respect for voters who voted for her in 2011.

To be fair, a lot of people were practically begging her to run for mayor.
 

Pedrito

Member
If we were in a movie, a young citizen journalist would follow those vans to an out of town warehouse, do so dumpster diving and finally solve a puzzle, revealing the shocking truth.

162498.jpg
 

pr0cs

Member
When most of the rest of the Western world is doing fine, it's a good bet that your citizens losing one full quarter of their buying power means you're doing something wrong.
Guess some of the articles I've read suggest otherwise.
Depends on which way you lean I suppose
 

Apathy

Member
Can someone fill me in on why Harper is using the economy shtick when that's been a failure as well?

He already tried the tough on crime and drugs bit with a known and self admitted crack user next to him and he thought no one would see the irony in that, but they did so he has to try something else that might sick.
 

Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
Guess some of the articles I've read suggest otherwise.
Depends on which way you lean I suppose

I don't know how you could view the economy doing well when we were technically in a recession earlier this year. Plus our primary sector being in shambles due to low oil prices. What kind of spin is needed to make our current situation seem good?
 

pr0cs

Member
I don't know how you could view the economy doing well when we were technically in a recession earlier this year. Plus our primary sector being in shambles due to low oil prices. What kind of spin is needed to make our current situation seem good?
Oil prices are the current government fault?
 

Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
Then she makes terrible decisions. Maybe stop listening to ideologues and instead listen to realists that said before she got in she didn't stand a chance.

She did stand a chance. The election last year was just a huge clusterfuck, with a lot of insane things happening during the campaign. Rob Ford getting cancer and dropping out? Doug Ford running in his place? She also ran a pretty bad campaign, so she does owe blame to herself.

Oil prices are the current government fault?

The impact of low oil prices are the government's fault. Maybe putting so many chips into a sector we have no control of the price is not a smart idea?
 

Pedrito

Member
I don't know how you could view the economy doing well when we were technically in a recession earlier this year. Plus our primary sector being in shambles due to low oil prices. What kind of spin is needed to make our current situation seem good?

80% of the economy is growing and don't forget that Canada came out of the great recession in better shape than all the other G7 countries
and then got leapfrogged by most of them, and quite franky should be thrown out of the G7 for being irrelevant
.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
MacLeans:
Yet Trudeau undercuts his own appeal with occasional detours into pandering. The most obvious example is his promise to cancel recent reforms of Employment Insurance. These reforms, including a requirement that EI claimants accept jobs up to an hour’s commute from home, are meant to improve employment in Atlantic Canada and reduce seasonal dependency on EI. Trudeau will undo this to win the favour of a small subset of East Coast voters.

A fundamental misunderstanding of what EI is, what EI does, and why this change is bad.

Say I work a white collar job, and I am laid off by no fault of my own. I think we all recognize that I am able to walk down the street and get a job at McDonald's. Some people would say "Then what's the need for EI? Look, you can get a job". But this makes no sense. If I have worked my whole life towards career advancement, got relevant degrees, accumulated experience, got good performance reviews, etc. why ought I voluntarily accept a massive backslide in pay, prestige, and career prospects? EI makes it so that I don't have to. It is a system designed to enable me to spend the brief period after I lose my employment searchable for a comparable replacement job or getting my ducks in a row before transitioning into a new industry. It's not designed to compel me to take a job, it's designed to make it so I don't feel compelled to take a job.

The one hour commute rule functions similarly. A one hour commute costs a significant amount (in bus costs this is perhaps $1000+ less salary per year, in car costs even more. Invoicing mileage at the Revenue Canada standard of $0.55/km, that's perhaps $8,000 in costs a year). A one hour commute significantly deflates hourly salary. Working 8 hours a day with a 5 minute commute at $20 an hour makes your effective wage $19.51 an hour. Working 8 hours a day with a one hour commute at $20 an hour makes your effective wage $16 an hour. That's a >15% wage suppression effect. Some people voluntarily take jobs with extremely long commutes to help control living costs or for career advancement or whatever, but compelling someone to do so hurts workers, and it especially hurts middle class workers. It also has a negative effect on families, so GG conservatives.

The "problem" of seasonal EI dependence, such as it is, is entirely separate. If the government has simply had enough of fishermen free-riding some of the year, perhaps they ought say so, instead of applying rules to the vast majority of people who occasionally use EI in the course of their life. But the hilarity of a government with a rounding error number of seats in Atlantic Canada running a policy whose stated purpose is to brow-beat the Atlantic Canadian culture of dependency (* actual Harper quote) is too much. Federal mismanagement of natural resources has contributed to the decline in fish stocks (along with, yes, the overfishing by Stupid Newfies!!!!--but also overfishing by foreign fishers from the Iberian peninsula that the federal government didn't take seriously enough until it was too late). Federal mismanagement of the seal hunt file and failure to blunt lobbying efforts by animal groups in Europe have significantly impacted the ability of sealers to make a living. Atlantic Canadians remember the long and protracted dispute between the feds and Newfoundland over the Atlantic Accord. You guys know how Alberta bleats on about how having oil revenues expropriated by the feds in the name of the national interest was the Single Most Evil Thing Ever And Curse Trudeau's Name? The only difference between that and this is that our oil ended up being under water instead of under land. I say these things not to haul out the laundry list of grievances Atlantic Canada has against the federal government, but rather to observe that programs that support seasonal workers are in part an admission that everyone has not done enough to make employment in those areas sustainable. People aren't free-riding, they're using the system as designed: to make up for the lack of opportunities available. If you remove that system, it's not like the people in question won't need to eat. And no, "take another job" is not credible--people from small rural towns are tired of being told to get retrained to be hairdressers at age 50 when they live in a town of 100 people, 20 of whom are being told to retrain as hairdressers.

MacLean's? What a joke. Another one in the long line of voices from the Canadian core maligning, smearing, or ignoring the periphery. Wonder when they'll go back to warning old-stock Canadians about the threat posed to them by Canada's "Too Asian" Universities?
 

pr0cs

Member
The impact of low oil prices are the government's fault. Maybe putting so many chips into a sector we have no control of the price is not a smart idea?
That sector employs a ton of people throughout the country, when has it not been a focus of so many chips?
 
WOW at the low cpc spending. Get them out of here holy shit

It's the Taxpayer Federation. They're not exactly a non-partisan group.

Guess some of the articles I've read suggest otherwise.
Depends on which way you lean I suppose

1% growth forecast this year. Our closest neighbour and biggest trading partner is expected to grow between 3.5% and 4%.

Our unemployment rate is over 7%, and job creation isn't matching population growth. US unemployment: 5% and falling, since their economy is creating jobs.

Don't know how to define poor economic performance, but it seems pretty blatant to me.
 

Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
That sector employs a ton of people throughout the country, when has it not been a focus of so many chips?

It is not sustainable in this day and age to continue focusing on that sector, especially when the government is so tunnel visioned about it. What economic plan does Harper beyond oil? Where is the investment into other sectors should oil fail? Why are we so heavily emphasizing this sector when its prosperity is not under our control? Not just oil prices, but when the tar sands are dependent on the US passing the keystone XL pipeline. Speaking of the US, 90% of our oil goes there, but they are using less and less of it each year. What is exactly is the long term plan here?
 

Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
The first one is just hand waving criticism of our economy by saying, it could be worse! Not to mention falsely claiming that the Conservatives were in any way responsible for us weathering the great recession.

The second one is an article about an average Canadian's economic freedom, hand waves that it dropped this year. Also it is from the Toronto Sun lol
 

Azih

Member
It is not sustainable in this day and age to continue focusing on that sector, especially when the government is so tunnel visioned about it. What economic plan does Harper beyond oil? Where is the investment into other sectors should oil fail? Why are we so heavily emphasizing this sector when its prosperity is not under our control? Not just oil prices, but when the tar sands are dependent on the US passing the keystone XL pipeline. Speaking of the US, 90% of our oil goes there, but they are using less and less of it each year. What is exactly is the long term plan here?

Two words

ENERGY
SUPERPOWER*


*onlyoneformofunsustainableenergythatwillbecomeobsoleteinanyfuturethatisntapocolyptic
 

Cynar

Member
MacLeans:


A fundamental misunderstanding of what EI is, what EI does, and why this change is bad.

Say I work a white collar job, and I am laid off by no fault of my own. I think we all recognize that I am able to walk down the street and get a job at McDonald's. Some people would say "Then what's the need for EI? Look, you can get a job". But this makes no sense. If I have worked my whole life towards career advancement, got relevant degrees, accumulated experience, got good performance reviews, etc. why ought I voluntarily accept a massive backslide in pay, prestige, and career prospects? EI makes it so that I don't have to. It is a system designed to enable me to spend the brief period after I lose my employment searchable for a comparable replacement job or getting my ducks in a row before transitioning into a new industry. It's not designed to compel me to take a job, it's designed to make it so I don't feel compelled to take a job.

The one hour commute rule functions similarly. A one hour commute costs a significant amount (in bus costs this is perhaps $1000+ less salary per year, in car costs even more. Invoicing mileage at the Revenue Canada standard of $0.55/km, that's perhaps $8,000 in costs a year). A one hour commute significantly deflates hourly salary. Working 8 hours a day with a 5 minute commute at $20 an hour makes your effective wage $19.51 an hour. Working 8 hours a day with a one hour commute at $20 an hour makes your effective wage $16 an hour. That's a >15% wage suppression effect. Some people voluntarily take jobs with extremely long commutes to help control living costs or for career advancement or whatever, but compelling someone to do so hurts workers, and it especially hurts middle class workers. It also has a negative effect on families, so GG conservatives.

The "problem" of seasonal EI dependence, such as it is, is entirely separate. If the government has simply had enough of fishermen free-riding some of the year, perhaps they ought say so, instead of applying rules to the vast majority of people who occasionally use EI in the course of their life. But the hilarity of a government with a rounding error number of seats in Atlantic Canada running a policy whose stated purpose is to brow-beat the Atlantic Canadian culture of dependency (* actual Harper quote) is too much. Federal mismanagement of natural resources has contributed to the decline in fish stocks (along with, yes, the overfishing by Stupid Newfies!!!!--but also overfishing by foreign fishers from the Iberian peninsula that the federal government didn't take seriously enough until it was too late). Federal mismanagement of the seal hunt file and failure to blunt lobbying efforts by animal groups in Europe have significantly impacted the ability of sealers to make a living. Atlantic Canadians remember the long and protracted dispute between the feds and Newfoundland over the Atlantic Accord. You guys know how Alberta bleats on about how having oil revenues expropriated by the feds in the name of the national interest was the Single Most Evil Thing Ever And Curse Trudeau's Name? The only difference between that and this is that our oil ended up being under water instead of under land. I say these things not to haul out the laundry list of grievances Atlantic Canada has against the federal government, but rather to observe that programs that support seasonal workers are in part an admission that everyone has not done enough to make employment in those areas sustainable. People aren't free-riding, they're using the system as designed: to make up for the lack of opportunities available. If you remove that system, it's not like the people in question won't need to eat. And no, "take another job" is not credible--people from small rural towns are tired of being told to get retrained to be hairdressers at age 50 when they live in a town of 100 people, 20 of whom are being told to retrain as hairdressers.

MacLean's? What a joke. Another one in the long line of voices from the Canadian core maligning, smearing, or ignoring the periphery. Wonder when they'll go back to warning old-stock Canadians about the threat posed to them by Canada's "Too Asian" Universities?
Beautiful beautiful post with a great understanding of what EI actually is.
 

A Sun news story about a Fraser Institute report is supposed to be a counter-argument to the notion that our economy is doing terribly? If ever you wanted an example of begging the question, I think that's about a close as you can get to a textbook definition.
 

pr0cs

Member
It is not sustainable in this day and age to continue focusing on that sector
It will rebound, and when it does the provinces without will still be there with their hands out like always. My point is that that industry is being influenced by outside forces totally out of our control. And we have nothing to even remotely fill that gap. And we have heard absolutely nothing from any parties how they plan to backfill that hole anytime soon.

A Sun news story about a Fraser Institute report
So it's all a lie... Or maybe biased? Is there any media this election that isn't?
 
It will rebound, and when it does the provinces without will still be there with their hands out like always. My point is that that industry is being influenced by outside forces totally out of our control. And we have nothing to even remotely fill that gap. And we have heard absolutely nothing from any parties how they plan to backfill that hole anytime soon.

Oil revenue should be treated like tips or christmas bonus - used for savings and extra expenses, but not to be relied upon. If Alberta/SK had been saving their oil royalties (also increased at 5-10x what they charged) like Norway, they'd be the wealthiest provinces in history. Instead it was relied upon and taxes were low, and now they have no savings.
 

Stet

Banned
It will rebound, and when it does the provinces without will still be there with their hands out like always. My point is that that industry is being influenced by outside forces totally out of our control. And we have nothing to even remotely fill that gap. And we have heard absolutely nothing from any parties how they plan to backfill that hole anytime soon.

1) "It will rebound" is wishful thinking with no concrete proof.
2) If our main industry is being influenced by outside forces that we can't control, we need to diversify our options to ensure that outside forces in one industry never take down our entire economy.
3) We do have options to fill that gap, in Alberta no less, where even despite the lack of government investment biotech firms are trying desperately to do just that.
 
So it turns out that the NDP's top campaign strategist was a registered lobbyist for both the Canadian Fuels Association and "Just Energy Ontario" up until a couple of weeks ago:


So it's all a lie... Or maybe biased? Is there any media this election that isn't?

Most media is fairly biased, but the idea that Sun Media or the Fraser Institute can be relied on for anything other than your standard Conservative talking points is insane.
 
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