First of all, there's no way to measure which way people voted strategically, if they voted strategically, or in what numbers.
Even if you could measure, you'd probably find that between low info and high info voters, they think different choices are the correct strategic vote for their riding.
Even the high information voters don't have anywhere near enough information to make a truly informed decision, so they are probably, even within that group, making contradictory choices.
It's really unlikely that strategic voting on a per-riding basis has ever produced a single swing worthy of note. Most of the effort is expended on ridings with no hope. To drive this point home, every election since Harper took power has pushed the strategic vote frenzy higher and higher. Every election since then has resulted in greater and greater victories for Harper. Empiricism is not on the side of this approach to gaming the system.
Now, a national swing towards a single party that can win *is* effective, and is arguably also strategic voting, but it's not what people usually mean when they say it in Canada right now thanks to organizations peddling uniform swing lists as actual advice, which is basically just snake oil placebo nonsense.
And all of this is just yet another reason why we need PR.
</rant>
It's a valid rant. We do need PR.
As far as strategic voting goes, I look at it this way. In a climate of perceived momentum shift like this one - and there's no discounting that perception is out there whether projections are bunk or not - let's not over-complicate things.
If a riding has historically never had an NDP MP, vote Liberal.
If a riding projection has a Liberal MP as a clear front-runner over their NDP counterpart - and the riding has swung Liberal many times in the past, vote Liberal.
If you're in a new riding the situation is a little dicier as you have to factor in a mix of voter tendencies across multiple ridings... however, if those original ridings largely exude the same qualities as the two above examples, vote Liberal.
If you're in a riding with an incumbent NDP MP who has boasted a solid track record during their stint as our recognized opposition party, vote NDP.
If you're in a riding that has historically never had a Liberal MP, vote NDP.
If a riding projection has an NDP MP as a clear front-runner over their Liberal counterpart - and the riding has swung NDP many times in the past, vote NDP.
And, otherwise, vote your conscience based on the platform and local representation you approve of the most.
Don't let some third-party strategic voting site tell you which way to vote in a riding where it's a legit competition between the NDP and Liberals and either one can win. Make up your own mind. Dirty pool is clearly being employed in the Vancouver-Granville situation.
