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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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P

PumpkinSpice

Banned
mo60 said:
How fast do guys think Harper will resign on monday if he loses the election to the Liberals. Do you guys think he will act like Prentice when the Alberta PC's lost.
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He'll announce Monday and might stay as opposition leader until a replacement can be found.
 
S

Sean C

Member
mo60 said:
How fast do guys think Harper will resign on monday if he loses the election to the Liberals. Do you guys think he will act like Prentice when the Alberta PC's lost.
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He'll announce his intent to resign as leader immediately; I'm not sure whether he'd stay on as opposition leader until a replacement is found, though. If you want to go by the most recent example in federal politics, Martin remained as an MP until the next election but he ceased to be leader immediately and Bill Graham took over as interim leader and leader of the opposition; Harper may decide it's better to exit the spotlight immediately.
 
M

mo60

Member
What?
http://legalinsurrection.com/2015/10/is-obamas-team-targeting-canadas-conservative-party/

I know that their are people that use to work on the Obama campaign team helping the Liberals this time, but what this article is describing looks like a conspiracy theory.

Also there's this excerpt from the article
But Judi McLeod of the Canada Free Press has been documenting how Obama is planning the “fundamental transformation” of Canada by taking down Harper’s government and bringing to power a progressive majority assembled from Canada’s Liberal Party and New Democratic Party (NDP), an affiliate of the Socialist International.

In a dispatch earlier this year, McLeod provided the facts about the interference of Obama campaign operatives in the Canadian elections scheduled for October 19. “In Canada, Obama’s campaign team is guiding the election campaigns of both the Liberals and the NDP,” she wrote. She urged the Harper government to investigate.

She explained why Obama is targeting Canada: “To the U.S., Canada is the country next door, to Obama it’s home of the architects of the maligned Keystone XL Pipeline and home to the world’s Number One elected defender of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Indeed, for the last seven years, Harper has not only been supporting Israel, but functioning as the leader of the Free World in the face of Obama’s deal-making with America’s enemies and adversaries. In 2014, at the summit of G20 nations, Harper famously told Russian President Putin that he needs “to get out of Ukraine.” Putin replied with a lie, saying the Russians weren’t in Ukraine.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
wow legalinsurrection.com very reputable sounding site

about
Legal Insurrection now is one of the most widely cited and influential conservative websites, with hundreds of thousands of visitors per month. Our work has been highlighted by top conservative radio personalities, such as Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin, and Professor Jacobson regularly appears as a guest on radio shows across the nation.
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wow rush and mark levin

how the hell did you even find this?
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Stet said:
Which ads relating to corruption?
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Just before the campaign started, the NDP put out an ad that strung together all the Conservatives' legal and ethical missteps. For some reason they never built on it -- or even put it on TV during the campaign, as far as I can remember -- but it was a) highly effective, and b) undeniably a negative attack ad.

gutter_trash said:
you guys asked for Mainstreet, but this one went unnoticed on this board

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/canadas-choice-2015/
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I posted it with Nanos a few pages back, but it went unnoticed.

Anyway...I like the numbers, but I still don't see where the Liberals can get a majority. If Mainstreet is correct, Quebec (Liberals winning on Montreal island, and a four-way tie everywhere else) and BC (Liberals leading overall, but without a firm base in any specific area) are going to be really interesting to watch.

Sean C said:
That at least was based on riding polling, albeit what was subsequently shown to be an outlier.
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Not just an outlier poll -- that implies it was one of those rogue polls, the mythical 20th poll (from the "correct 19 times out of 20). That CROP poll was deliberately manipulated to get a specific result.

Tiktaalik said:
I recall Chretien banning it being a sort of "on the way out the door" legacy move.

I'm sure there must have been a bunch of fundraising guys at the Liberal Party that were furious with him for it.

It set the party back for a bit, because they simply weren't as organized around collecting small amounts from individuals in the way the Conservatives were.
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Yep -- the Liberal Party president at the time was irate about it, to the point he went on TV and called it "dumber than a bag of hammers". Not coincidentally, he was a Paul Martin guy.
 
M

mo60

Member
Stumpokapow said:
wow legalinsurrection.com very reputable sounding site

about


wow rush and mark levin

how the hell did you even find this?
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Someone posted this in the r/canadapolitics subreddit.It's definitely not a good article.People were posting it all over the place also.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
matthewwhatever said:
Not just an outlier poll -- that implies it was one of those rogue polls, the mythical 20th poll (from the "correct 19 times out of 20). That CROP poll was deliberately manipulated to get a specific result.
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.... The '20th poll' is an outlier, and not mythical. There's a reason they have to specify that. It was almost certainly one of very few polls the NDP commissioned that showed a result like that, but CROP would have to be insane to let an actually manipulated poll go out with their name on it without comment.

This is a pretty extreme accusation.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
maharg said:
.... The '20th poll' is an outlier, and not mythical. There's a reason they have to specify that. It was almost certainly one of very few polls the NDP commissioned that showed a result like that, but CROP would have to be insane to let an actually manipulated poll go out with their name on it without comment.

This is a pretty extreme accusation.
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Questionable NDP poll adds to industry's credibility issues

The Liberals immediately charged that the poll had over-sampled NDP supporters and under-sampled Liberal supporters. And five reputable pollsters who examined the methodology at the request of The Canadian Press agreed that the survey did indeed seem flawed in a number of ways, skewing the results.
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Maggi suggested that CROP may not have known the NDP would leak its poll. However, the NDP leaked another CROP riding survey a couple weeks earlier, which suggested Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe was running a whopping 37 points behind the NDP incumbent in his old Montreal riding of Laurier-Sainte-Marie.
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Either CROP was duped by the NDP -- and, as far as I can tell, has done nothing to clear their names since -- or they were complicit in putting out an intentionally flawed poll. I don't know how else you can interpret it.
 
G

GuessMyUserName

Member
More from my facebook feed... stop voting for liars guys, vote Conservative!

bk6Fgrj.jpg
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I love the big marijuana leaf in the background, a nice touch.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
93% of Canadians support a niqab ban in citizenship ceremonies? If true, that figure is disgusting, and responding to an allegation of playing divisive politics by noting we're united in hate is just about the ugliest look possible.
 
A

Azzanadra

Member
GuessMyUserName said:
More from my facebook feed... stop voting for liars guys, vote Conservative!



I love the big marijuana leaf in the background, a nice touch.
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Out of curiosity, where do you live? This conservative fanaticism is truly a sight to behold. Never thought such was possible in Canada, this is the type of shit I would expect from the Republicans. Even if the Liberals win a minority though, a good amount of Parliament will still be conservative... which means it will be up to the NDP to bring about progressive ideas into reality.
 
T

TheRealTalker

Banned
Stealing signs is now the latest thing... this time in Ottawa

Abducted lawn signs found discarded in Orléans

Attacks on opponents’ lawn signs are a recurring theme in every election, and this one is no different.

Following news of Conservative volunteers caught vandalizing signs in Brampton, Ontario, comes the discovery of a mass grave for Liberal and NDP lawn signs in the Ottawa-area riding of Orléans.

The Liberal campaign chanced on the cache of about 35 disappeared Andrew Leslie signs, a few NDP signs and several Save the CBC signs. No signs promoting Conservative candidate Royal Galipeau were found.

The discarded signs were found in the trees next to a baseball diamond near Champlain Street.
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G

GuessMyUserName

Member
Yeah that's right, Canada overall 82%. It's just a bit of added hilarity (or sadness) on the anti-lying infographic to use Quebec's % for "Canadians".

Azzanadra said:
Out of curiosity, where do you live? This conservative fanaticism is truly a sight to behold. Never thought such was possible in Canada, this is the type of shit I would expect from the Republicans. Even if the Liberals win a minority though, a good amount of Parliament will still be conservative... which means it will be up to the NDP to bring about progressive ideas into reality.
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I've been at York for years now, but that's from an old elementary school classmate in Burlington. A place where, in regards to minorities, growing up I've known a grand total 2 black guys and 1 Chinese guy until I came here for university.

The poster in this case spams pro-Conservative and anti-Trudeau stuff all day long and nothing else, I noticed before his profile said he works for Federal Government of Canada, but seems now he has it set to "ask". Got a nice picture of him with Harper and his wife though!
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
I don't remember the sign vandalism being this bad last time around. In my riding I've seen signs from all the parties broken in half and thrown on the ground. Apparently in Rockcliffe someone went around and covered the non-Conservative signs in blue spraypaint.

TheRealTalker said:
anyone watch the Harper Toronto rally livestream?
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I missed it! I want to know if Harper embraced the Fords (literally or metaphorically).
 
T

TheRealTalker

Banned
matthewwhatever said:
I missed it! I want to know if Harper embraced the Fords (literally or metaphorically).
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apparently he avoided the question

just ranting his tagline over and over again and talking about Trudeau.... he did have a photo shoot with the Ford family afterwards though

His rally mustered around 600+ people, while on the same day Trudeau and Muclair's rally individually rallied 3000+ in Windsor and Vancouver
 
L

lacinius

Member
maharg said:
I doubt it. The reason it's drying up for the PCs is because corporate donations were banned. Wildrose is outraising every other party by a lot because their fundraising base was always significantly individual donors. Just like the federal CPC. Corporate and union donations ended federally before the Liberals went out of power and the CPC made a huge advantage out of it.
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Is this what is meant by Corporate donations coming to an end?!? :\

"However, CBC News began investigating federal contributions after revelations last week by an SNC executive at the Charbonneau Commission in Montreal. Yves Cadotte explained to the inquiry on corruption how SNC-Lavalin had its executives make political contributions municipally and provincially and then compensated them through their bonuses."

Hmmmm... which company did AECL get sold to again, all the while assuming none of the liabilities that Candian taxpayers will still be on the hook and have to pay for the continued billions in clean-up costs?!?
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
Zekes! said:
I realized my biggest frustration about this election is that the NDP and Liberal seem to refuse to work together. Even though they're different parties I feel like they should be ganging up on the Conservatives. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" and all that shit.

Maybe it's because I want the Cons out so much that I don't give a shit who wins between either of them.
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One of the unfortunate things about this election is that it has been so oriented around getting rid of the Conservatives, and the strategic voting schemes that people think is necessary to do so, that the differences between the NDP and Liberals have been heavily downplayed. We've seen the flawed stereotype that both parties are interchangeable left wing parties constantly restated by the media.

For example in the tight race of Vancouver Granville, the decision of whether to vote for the Liberals or NDP is not about their different philosophies and policies, but rather about which one is leading in the local polls and which has the best chance to defeat the 3rd place Conservative candidate.

There are lots of Canadians that feel they could potentially vote for either (me included!) and this fact has somehow been transformed by the media into the fact that the Liberals and NDP are interchangeable. It's not true. While they are both left leaning parties, they hold dramatically different philosophical views on the role of the state in people's lives, and their approaches to the same issues are often starkly different.

This good article talks about this in further detail.

Strategic voting has long-term costs for progressives

In the last week of this election, there has been a great deal of talk about strategic voting. Organizations such as Vote Together have been trying to coordinate progressive voters in order to maximize the chance that Liberal or NDP candidates beat Conservative ones, even if it means progressives do not end up voting for the party they prefer. In the short term, this could play a role in keeping the Conservatives from winning re-election — but strategic voting has long-term costs.

This election is not just a competition between the three main parties to form government, but also a fight on the left between the Liberals and NDP to determine which party will emerge as the Conservatives’ main competitor. New Democrats voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out of power (or Liberals voting NDP to do the same), hurt their party’s ability to compete for government in the long term.

While the Liberals and NDP have been converging over the past couple of elections, important differences still exist between the two parties. The NDP’s promise to balance the budget may on the surface suggest that they are abandoning their social democratic roots, but their commitment to $15-a-day daycare and investment in health care suggest that the party still believes that investment in government programs is essential to reducing inequality. Indeed, this is not the first time the NDP has committed to balanced budgets. Tommy Douglas was balancing budgets in Saskatchewan in the 1940s and ’50s, when the party was still known as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. The Liberals, in contrast, have committed to using income tax increases on the wealthy to cut middle-class taxes, a policy that is certainly aimed at redistribution, but uses a very different set of instruments to do so.

In short, the Liberals and the NDP have both developed left-leaning platforms, but they are still different parties. The NDP’s platform looks like that of a social democratic party that has had to moderate its commitments to government programs. The Liberals look like a centrist party that has had to move left. They have made a greater commitment to address inequality than the Liberals may have in the past, but tax cuts are as much a part of their plan for doing so as the expansion of government programs are. Whichever of these parties emerges as the stronger of the two left-wing parties in this and perhaps the next election, will determine the kinds of policy options that Canadians will be presented with.

This election is thus not just about replacing the Conservatives, but also about determining which party will emerge as the Conservatives’ competitor in future elections. The Canadian party system has been going through very significant changes. Over the past two-and-a-half decades, the Liberals have lost their position as Canada’s centrist “natural governing party.” The Conservatives have managed to consolidate their support on the right of the political spectrum and have forced the Liberals and NDP to compete over centre-left votes.

With the Conservatives looking like they will hold the centre-right of the political spectrum well into the future, any party that wants to replace the Tories will have to win a large amount of the vote on the centre-left. Only one of the Liberals or the NDP is going to be able to compete with the Conservatives to form government over the long term. Conservative support is simply too great (in this election Conservative support seems like it is particularly low) to allow for the Liberals and the NDP to split the centre-left vote and still compete with the Conservatives.

Over the long term, centre-left voters are likely to consolidate behind one of the Liberals or the NDP. The growth of the NDP through the 2000s has called into question which party they will end up consolidating behind. The NDP’s second-place finish in 2011 for the first time made them look like a party that might be able to form government. The Liberal’s recent resurgence in the polls has made that party look like it has an equal, if not better, shot at defeating the Conservatives.

This is a unique moment in Canadian electoral history, in that it is conceivable that over the next election or two, either the Liberals or the NDP could mount a serious challenge to form government. If one of these parties emerges from this and the next election with a clear lead over the other, it is likely that strategic voters will start to consolidate behind that party, consigning the weaker of the two centre-left parties to third-party status.

The 2015 election is thus not just a contest to see who will form Canada’s next government, it is a competition to determine the kind of party that will challenge the Conservatives for many elections to come. Strategic voting could be a valuable tool for progressives seeking to keep the the Conservatives from returning to government, but it comes at a cost. Progressive voters strategically voting in this election may be costing their party the ability to compete for government in many future elections.
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This author seems to think that a two party system is inevitable and Canadians must inevitably choose which left wing approach they favour. My hope is that we'll see PR eventually implemented, and that both parties could exist and Canadians will be able to decide on a case by case basis which approach is best.
 
T

TheRealTalker

Banned
Tiktaalik said:
Agreedo.

It's just unfortunate. Let's implement PR and then we can get real nerdy about policy and everyone can vote for whatever party they want, even if it's a fringe party like the Greens.
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yes after this election

for in order to reach such a agreeable solution we need to first get rid of the gigantic hurdle that is preventing us from ditching the past the post system
 
S

Sch1sm

Member
Dissonance said:
CRj91ZqUcAAr4KS.jpg:large


"Thank you @pmharper it was great to see you tonight & thanks to the thousands of people who came #elxn42 #elxn2015"

https://twitter.com/TorontoRobFord/status/655552840908328960

Apparently they spoke at it: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-stephen-harper-economy-voting-1.3276458
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Oh man. Rob Ford's really dropped weight since his diagnosis and subsequent treatments. No one will even remember his breaking his diets by going to fast food drive thru's.
 
A

Azzanadra

Member
I don't think you will need to worry about the "future conservative competitor". I have a feeling their done, these last few weeks have shown their desperation. And besides, the Liberals WANT a voting reform, which I think with the NDP support should not be a problem.

Even without the voting reform, the Conservative government has largely relied on the personality cult of Stephen Harper. Not that he is a charming individual or anything, but I really don't see who they would replace him with. After this election, he is done.
 
TheStruggler

TheStruggler

Report me for trolling ND/TLoU2 threads
Trudeau was in Winnipeg few hours ago, grabbed a starbucks with him and caught up on some stuff. He is exhausted and lost his voice and is literally running on fumes, he is very excited yet nervous. He talked after at St James Civic Center was good time.
 
K

killer rin

Member
Azzanadra said:
I don't think you will need to worry about the "future conservative competitor". I have a feeling their done, these last few weeks have shown their desperation. And besides, the Liberals WANT a voting reform, which I think with the NDP support should not be a problem.

Even without the voting reform, the Conservative government has largely relied on the personality cult of Stephen Harper. Not that he is a charming individual or anything, but I really don't see who they would replace him with. After this election, he is done.
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I mean, the Conservatives have relied on a bunch of stuff up until now. Take away their unlimited attack ads (election or not), their ability to call elections 3 months early for strategic reasons, Steven Harper, and their ability to break election laws for little to no punishment and suddenly you will see their support go way down.

Electoral reform just makes it all the more better
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
Azzanadra said:
I don't think you will need to worry about the "future conservative competitor". I have a feeling their done, these last few weeks have shown their desperation. And besides, the Liberals WANT a voting reform, which I think with the NDP support should not be a problem.

Even without the voting reform, the Conservative government has largely relied on the personality cult of Stephen Harper. Not that he is a charming individual or anything, but I really don't see who they would replace him with. After this election, he is done.
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You're not alone in wondering if the Conservatives will be an aimless ship without Harper.

Can the Tories hold together if they don’t win a majority?

Less than a week out to the election, here’s a thought: Can the Tories survive anything other than an outright majority win? If they lose at the polls, or win a minority that’s toppled, can the party hold together?

For the last nine years, the spoils of victory have allowed the party to keep a variety of ills under wraps. So long as the party was in power, able to provide jobs and power to the faithful, it was easy to manage growing discontent in the party and among the grassroots. Once the good times stop, though, the party is going to have to come to a nasty reckoning — its record in office has left few conservatives happy, and its efforts to win another election, if futile, may make winning the next one even harder.

There are three distinct issues at play here. The first, of course, is the sense among true-blue conservatives that this government has been underwhelming … to put it mildly. I share that frustration. There’s a few bright spots here and there — thanks again for nuking the long-gun registry, fellas — but overall, the Tories have been all the centrist things I’d hoped they wouldn’t be. They spend too much. Instead of reforming the tax code, they’ve actually made it worse through their ridiculous boutique credits. They haven’t found a sector of the economy they don’t feel would benefit from corporate welfare. They have actually boasted of defending supply management. And under Harper’s watch, despite all Harper’s tough talk, the Canadian Armed Forces are too small and in desperate need of new equipment. In some areas, the Navy, first and foremost, things have gotten worse. Our once-proud fleet has rusted out on Harper’s watch, and help is years away … if it ever comes at all.

That’s just a quick sample. Ask a thousand small-c conservatives what their biggest disappointment has been and you’ll probably get about as many answers. That’s a problem for a party facing a potentially long spell out of power. “We’ll do better next time, probably, eventually” won’t exactly fire up the troops as they cart their office supplies to their new, crappier desks in the opposition wings, or keep donations rolling in from the grassroots as the party sets out to rebuild. Morale matters, and I’m hearing it’s not so great these days. It’s no mystery why.

But the concern isn’t that the party has disappointed the true believers (though that’s bad). What’s worse is my sense that they’re losing moderates in the Toronto area. Tories around the country may roll their eyes at that fear — let the eastern bastards freeze and all that — but show me a path to victory for a Conservative party that doesn’t involve a strong showing in the GTA. Just one. Anyone?

Fundamentally, the Tories have too often offered voters the worst of both worlds. On the issues that matter most to most conservative voters — national security, fiscal responsibility, smaller government — their record is terrible. And for millions of other Canadians, swing voters who might be persuaded to vote Conservative but aren’t committed Tories, the party has played to its worst impulses. It’s been petty, arrogant, aloof, and has allowed its desire to win over small voting blocs to blind itself to how it all comes across to the public at large.

I don’t personally believe that the Tories have been worse than the governments that came before. But I do believe that Conservative parties have to work harder in Canada. There just aren’t enough committed right-wing voters to win elections on a sustainable basis. Winning over the middle while satisfying the right was never going to be easy, but good Lord, there had to be ways other than this.

The conservative message, to my mind, has always been a fundamentally optimistic one: things aren’t perfect, but they’re getting better, and with a few minor tweaks, they’ll be better still. No need for massive government programs to solve problems that don’t exist. Maximum freedom and minimum taxes will solve most of them on their own.

Simplistic? Sure. But a positive and uniquely conservative message that the Harper Tories never really articulated. Instead, they demoralized the true believers and turned off the mushy middle, leaving them with no option other than to play the odious niqab card in hopes of shoring up some last-minute votes.

It could work, I suppose. If it does, the Tories will have dodged a bullet. If this government goes down, whoever leads the Conservative party next will have some ‘splainin to do.
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Jason Kenny seems like the natural front runner. Charest seems like an good candidate, but I don't know enough about Quebec politics to know if he'd be viable there. Certainly one imagines a Quebecer could have some trouble in Alberta.

If we got a PR system then we'd likely see a super right wing federal Wildrose style party from the west and a right of centre PC style party centred around Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
 
E

explodet

Member
JK-Money said:
Trudeau was in Winnipeg few hours ago, grabbed a starbucks with him and caught up on some stuff. He is exhausted and lost his voice and is literally running on fumes, he is very excited yet nervous. He talked after at St James Civic Center was good time.
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Starbucks?

Whatsamatta, Timmy's not good enough for ya, ya elitist?

fuck I could go with a triple grande salted caramel mocha right now
 
M

mo60

Member
I don't think the conservatives will be as relevant as they use to be in the last decade or so. They are just to toxic right now and people will slowly reject them in the next few elections.I could see the NDP becoming the second party again or forming government again eventually.
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
JK-Money said:
Trudeau was in Winnipeg few hours ago, grabbed a starbucks with him and caught up on some stuff. He is exhausted and lost his voice and is literally running on fumes, he is very excited yet nervous. He talked after at St James Civic Center was good time.
Click to expand...

That's really cool! Lucky! I'd love to have a personal chat with any leader. Even Harper.
 
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