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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
- Status
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
i'd rather an evil genius that doesn't devalue my citizenship to a wedding photographer that does.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Naw, 2011 was when they stole Quebec. They were supposed to somehow keep Quebec while building out in Ontario and the west, and basically they failed on both counts. lol
Eh. It'll still almost certainly be the second best showing of the NDP in Canadian history. This is definitely not their "one chance" and the NDP's fortunes are definitely still on the rise. If they're so short sighted as to think that booting Mulcair right as they're able to make substantive contributions to policy for the first time in decades will help, they're dumber than bricks and they'll go through leaders like the Liberals have for the last ten years.
Quoting this for the first time Trudeau passes legislation the NDP rejects with the help of the Conservatives.
Would that fundamentally be a bad thing? What if it was something the NDP was in the wrong about?
TheRealTalker
Banned
24 hours after winning:
he should grow that back and also twirl his moustache
lol only if he gets a majority though...
Building up in the entire country through moderation of policy and appealing to Liberal swing voters was always the plan since Layton took over. The Quebec surge was part of that plan working way faster than they intended to.
That the NDP had a *shot* this election is basically that plan already being like 5 years ahead of what I expect they were thinking they could achieve if everything went well.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
There was clearly a strategy problem, since they didn't present themselves as a viable alternative to Harper. And I don't know if they'll ever sweep Quebec again, which makes me wonder where they go from here. Hell, it looks like any gains they made in the GTA are about to be wiped out as well.
I don't know how an NDP makes a credible point that they are better than the Liberals though, especially from a third place position with no dependable base of support.
They were never, ever, ever going to sweep Quebec again and they couldn't convince Ontarians that they were better than the Liberals. I think they'd be lucky if the Liberals pass some form of PR so that at least they can hang on as a strong third choice protest party.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Are we expecting a minority government?
I haven't voted yet and I don't know which party either ;.;
I haven't voted yet and I don't know which party either ;.;
There was, no doubt about it. Fortunately for them, there are elections yet to be fought, and they are not committed to the strategy they used this time for eternity (if that were true, they'd still be campaigning on Marxism).
If the NDP are smart, Mulcair will be judged on what he achieves in a minority parliament. If NDP platform planks get enacted he'll get another shot. If not, then they'll probably boot him.
I may be misremembering, but I feel like I've had a *lot* of conversations with you in the poligaf thread where you've taken similar "things will never change again" positions (ie. that Harper will never lose again). That we've had two elections in a row with sea changes is proof positive that campaigns matter and things will change.
I'm just stirring up shit.
The NDP voted with the Conservatives to defeat the Liberal Party lol
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Might as well vote strategically at this point if you are on the ABC train.
I don't think Canada needs a fourth centrist party that doesn't stand for anything important. lol
They also voted with the Bloc, ergo all Conservatives are separatists.
Canada needs PR. For PR to happen, the NDP have to be there and able to negotiate, imo.
So sad and so true.
BigJonsson
Member
Final Ekos numbers are out
Liberals FTW
Liberals FTW
Trudeau just coming on the stage in Vancouver. Introduced by local star chef Vij. Last rally stop of the campaign. I almost went to this but it is in North Van and I was feeling a bit lazy and I need to meet friends later.
https://www.periscope.tv/althiaraj/1vOGwnYoZXRKB?:username=@althiaraj&
https://www.periscope.tv/althiaraj/1vOGwnYoZXRKB?:username=@althiaraj&
I don't think strategic voting has much of an effect overall. My parents wanted to vote Liberal instead of NDP this election because the Liberals are winning and have the Trudeau name. They have also felt that their NDP votes were wasted in the past. The thing is, the Liberals have never won in this riding. It's NDP vs CPC. I'm sure there are plenty of NDP voters here switching to Liberal because of the news so the CPC will easily win here.
Educated strategic voters + uneducated strategic voters can clash in these ridings leading to the outcome that we all fear. This is why the next government needs to end all of this unintuitive confusion and give us PR.
Educated strategic voters + uneducated strategic voters can clash in these ridings leading to the outcome that we all fear. This is why the next government needs to end all of this unintuitive confusion and give us PR.
NDP wrong and CPC right? That goes against the laws of physics.
BigJonsson
Member
Ekos
35.8 Lib
31.9 CPC
20.4 NDP
Liberals with tiny lead in 65+
35.8 Lib
31.9 CPC
20.4 NDP
Liberals with tiny lead in 65+
Compare with their previous poll, BQ and Green got like 3% more votes
This is why EKOS is shit lol
Oh god this is another poll that isn't even on their site? They have such high movement in their polls
TheRealTalker
Banned
In a wonderful world we would have either NDP or Liberals running the country with one of them being the official opposition
Green Party can overtake the CPC for all I care... like most people stated a conservative party is needed for balance but the current one is just now a toxic existent that needs reform
Green Party can overtake the CPC for all I care... like most people stated a conservative party is needed for balance but the current one is just now a toxic existent that needs reform
Sakura
Member
Likely a Liberal minority unless something crazy happens.
BigJonsson
Member
It's on iPolitics
either we underestimate the amount of con voters or underestimate the massive liberal surge
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_18_2015.pdf
but this is what's on ekos website for today
edit: nm seems it goes up on ipolitics before their site as stated in that PDF lol
They're still going to finish the race with something in the range of 65-80 seats, a probably something in the neighbourhood of half Quebec's seats. That's a pretty solid base; indeed, a bigger one than the NDP has ever historically had.
The immediate chance to execute a UK Labour-style squeeze on the Liberals has definitely gone away, but the NDP is poised to have more leverage on the federal scene than they've had since the 1972-1974 (Pierre) Trudeau minority.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
I'm going to call a Liberal majority.
I think pollsters are really under-estimating support for non-Conservative parties. The Conservative's usual base of voters isn't going to be very motivated tomorrow, Trudeau has a lot of momentum and will sway undecided voters + get a lot of new people to vote Liberal for change. It's going to be a few points higher than their averages, into the high end of their margin of error or higher.
I might be wrong but I wanted to write this down so I can quote myself tomorrow evening.
I think pollsters are really under-estimating support for non-Conservative parties. The Conservative's usual base of voters isn't going to be very motivated tomorrow, Trudeau has a lot of momentum and will sway undecided voters + get a lot of new people to vote Liberal for change. It's going to be a few points higher than their averages, into the high end of their margin of error or higher.
I might be wrong but I wanted to write this down so I can quote myself tomorrow evening.
Exactly. If you told someone 5 years ago that in an election in 2015, the NDP would win ~70 seats, they'd laugh in your face. And a lot of that is still down to Mulcair and the work he and they put into Quebec, whatever missteps were made this election.
They should definitely be grooming leadership candidates for a post-Mulcair future, but they should be preparing for an election basically any time after this if it turns out a minority.
Only way I see him out in the short term is if the Liberals pull a majority out of their hat. In that case, building up a new leader for 2019 makes sense.
They should definitely be grooming leadership candidates for a post-Mulcair future, but they should be preparing for an election basically any time after this if it turns out a minority.
Only way I see him out in the short term is if the Liberals pull a majority out of their hat. In that case, building up a new leader for 2019 makes sense.
Sakura
Member
Depends how votes are distributed too.
Conservatives could have less votes, but win more seats (not that I think that will happen necessarily).
Perfect Blue
Banned
Damn! I was going to call this at home but I don't want to be TOO overconfident only to get my hopes horribly crushed.
hope the NDP collapse/Liberal Unification + Harper with Fords is enough to push the liberals into the clear
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I'm thinking liberals too, duno if minority or majority.
And I should decide who to vote for soon, it's tomorrow lol
And I should decide who to vote for soon, it's tomorrow lol
firehawk12
Subete no aware
That'd probably be the best for the country, really. lolI'm hoping for a weaker Liberal minority than I projected.
Puppet Shadow
Member
I think it will be a conservative minority.
Here in BC I've learned polls mean nothing, and many incumbents manage to hang on, even when with an unpopular party.
Hope I'm wrong.
Here in BC I've learned polls mean nothing, and many incumbents manage to hang on, even when with an unpopular party.
Hope I'm wrong.
TheStruggler
Report me for trolling ND/TLoU2 threads
if it happens cant wait to say "I know the prime minister of Canada" lol
The only way a minority parliament could happen where this wasn't the case is if the Bloc do fantastically well, and I'd really rather not go back to that.
Plus, the NDP will need time and fundraising to be in a position to run another election campaign, so I doubt they'd be eager to do it unless the Liberals wind up doing something to make them really unpopular.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Well, it's the LPC after all. I expect some new Cronyism scandal to happen in the next term. lol
Ehhh, only if people vote strictly on party lines. And that bothers me too, of course.
Confusion Illusion
Banned
Either Liberals or NDP. Mostly leaning towards former at this point.
I feel like I'm the only one in my family who doesn't hold socially conservative views.
I feel like I'm the only one in my family who doesn't hold socially conservative views.
Nothing is guaranteed but it's likely to be either a Liberal or Conservative minority
matthewwhatever
Member
That would be something -- though if I'm remembering correctly, you've been predicting that disillusioned Conservatives will stay home, so maybe this is in line with that? With all the Ford stuff in the last few days, I've noticed a bit of that online. It wouldn't shock me. I also like your prediction more than mine, so I'd love to be wrong on this.
Also, go Greens!
Fun fact: Trudeau's maternal grandfather was the MP for Vancouver North (which no longer exists). They were going for a bit of the "full circle" vibe with that stop, I think.
If they come out of Quebec with 30+ seats, a majority wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. I'm skeptical, but your podcast is right -- in tight three- and four-way races, anything is possible.
If that happens, that also means the NDP is underperforming in Quebec, which would probably be Mulcair's death knell. Promising to be the one to get them over the hump and failing is one thing; not getting them over the hump *and* losing Quebec would be an unmitigated disaster.
24 hours after winning:
*swoon*
The Green numbers aren't insane, and he doesn't have the Conservatives winning among women. This may be legit -- though still I'm a little suspicious about what weighting he's giving, since Ekos has been so far out of sync with the other pollsters so far, it's weird to see him suddenly close to being in agreement with them.
Better tone in the relationship if Trudeau and the Liberals win, with less emphasis on pipelines; no change (so continuing doom & gloom) if Harper and the Conservatives win. Some irritants will still be present no matter what.
Good chance 9 years of Harper Conservative rule ends on Monday. A very good chance.
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