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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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M

matthewwhatever

Member
SRG01 said:
Please let it be Nathan Cullen. I've always had a soft spot for him, especially during the NDP leadership race.
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As a Liberal, he terrified me. He would've picked up Layton's Happy Warrior mantle, and he would've made it harder for Trudeau to jump into the Liberal leadership and define himself as a fresh face. (It also would've helped Joyce Murray's campaign significantly, since she was the pro-merger candidate on the Liberal side). I'm not sure he works quite as well against Trudeau now, but he'd still be a pretty formidable leader.
 
S

Sean C

Member
User33 said:
Will Mulcair step down when his party inevitably comes in third again?

He took the party from Official Opposition to right back where they started...third wheel.
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killer rin said:
It's going to depend on whether or not they have enough seats to be the Kingmaker. If they do, Muclair will stay, if not; he leaves.
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There's no way the NDP don't have enough seats to do that, based on current polling trends.

I'd say Mulcair's continuing in office will also hinge on whether the NDP caucus is happy with his performance in the campaign.
 
A

Azzanadra

Member
killer rin said:
It's going to depend on whether or not they have enough seats to be the Kingmaker. If they do, Muclair will stay, if not; he leaves.
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I hope not. I am voting Liberal tomorrow, and I hope for their minority government, but I still like Mulcair. He was great it parliament from what I have seen and I think he would he would make a good "kingmaker" as others have said. Since the Libs are going to get a minority as a best case scenario, I think it is important for the NDP to be as strong as possible within Parliament to outnumber the conservatives to pass the relevant progressive legislation.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
maharg said:
I'm surprised Ekos and Nanos aren't converging more as we get closer to election day. One of them is going to be way off.
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Léger seems to be backing up Nanos more. So i hope numbers are closer to those two than they are to Ekos.

Ekos overrates the Conservatives enormously in Quebec by a large margin
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
User33 said:
Will Mulcair step down when his party inevitably comes in third again?

He took the party from Official Opposition to right back where they started...third wheel.
Click to expand...

I think it depends on what happens in Quebec. Muclair's pitch for leadership was essentially that he was a major component of the big Quebec win in 2011, and he could push the party to the next level. If Quebec falls apart, then the NDP will need to reboot with a different approach and so ditching Mulcair would be advisable. However, if the NDP largely holds onto Quebec then it would make sense to keep Mulcair on.

Nathan Cullen is great, but BC is such a basket case that I kind of hope he eventually quits the federal party to run for the BC NDP leadership so he can turn around that disfunctional party and be Premier.

Edit: I think Mulcair did an Ok job. If I was to clean house in any area I'd send the backroom strategists packing.
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
killer rin said:
If we were to look at the Ontario Election, the Alberta Election and 2011, does anyone know which pollster is the most reliable?
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Leger was best in Alberta
Angus Reid in ontario

The difference between those 2 and nanos is where liberal/green/bloc are going, really. Cons and NDP are fairly aligned between the 3 at the moment
 
S

Sean C

Member
Tiktaalik said:
Edit: I think Mulcair did an Ok job. If I was to clean house in any area I'd send the backroom strategists packing.
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I don't think there was anything particularly wrong with Mulcair's performance in the campaign; it ended up being based on assumptions that didn't turn out to be true, but they were probably reasonable ones at the time.

There'll be a lot of things going into whether Mulcair stays on. I don't think their Quebec performance will be bad enough to warrant booting him. It'll be a fundamental question around whether they want him to lead the party into the next election or not; or is there somebody else the party thinks could do a better job?
 
A

Apathy

Member
User33 said:
Will Mulcair step down when his party inevitably comes in third again?

He took the party from Official Opposition to right back where they started...third wheel.
Click to expand...

I personally don't like the man, he's trying to imitate Jack's personality and failing at it, but I would like to see him stick around so I can see more super creepy smiling pictures of him.
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
Sean C said:
I don't think there was anything particularly wrong with Mulcair's performance in the campaign; it ended up being based on assumptions that didn't turn out to be true, but they were probably reasonable ones at the time.

There'll be a lot of things going into whether Mulcair stays on. I don't think their Quebec performance will be bad enough to warrant booting him. It'll be a fundamental question around whether they want him to lead the party into the next election or not; or is there somebody else the party thinks could do a better job?
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Yeah fundamentally the question of whether to stay with Mulcair or not comes down to whether the party's chances for growth is improved by going with a specific different person.

I look around the rest of the top MPs and it feels like a step back. I really like Cullen and Dewar, but their French for example is respectively "ok" and "bad", and so one has to be skeptical about how well they could do in Quebec. At the moment the NDP's strength in Quebec is a major part of their pitch, so it feels risky to put those seats at risk. Going into this campaign one of the major strengths of the NDP pitch was that they were nationally competitive right across the country. The NDP doesn't want to regress into being a regional protest party.
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Apathy said:
I personally don't like the man, he's trying to imitate Jack's personality and failing at it, but I would like to see him stick around so I can see more super creepy smiling pictures of him.
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My dislike for the man made me think twice about Strategic Voting in my riding, and I went Liberal even if they are in 3rd Place.

I voted NDP twice to Block the Bloc here, but the way Mulcair carried himself by attacking Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien....eeeessh not a way to convince strategic Liberal voters to vote NDP... bad move Mulcair, you are not Jack

The NDP's succes depends entirely on Liberal swing voters. Attacking past Liberal Prime Ministers to score cheap points is counter productive for the NDP's requirement of wooooing Liberal swing voters
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Tiktaalik said:
If these are consistent with the final election numbers it feels like Liberal Minority to me.

I hope the Conservatives don't squeak out a slim plurality of seats. It would be awfully nice to not have to go through the song and dance of having to defeat the Conservative throne speech.
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I go back and forth on this, because I would actually like the constitutional questions around this settled once and for all, especially if we're going to actually get PR out of the arrangement of parliament we get (and thus minority governments become a common thing). But the risk that it'll settle wrong scares the crap out of me.
 
S

Sean C

Member
Tiktaalik said:
Yeah fundamentally the question of whether to stay with Mulcair or not comes down to whether the party's chances for growth is improved by going with a specific different person.

I look around the rest of the top MPs and it feels like a step back. I really like Cullen and Dewar, but their French for example is respectively "ok" and "bad", and so one has to be skeptical about how well they could do in Quebec. At the moment the NDP's strength in Quebec is a major part of their pitch, so it feels risky to put those seats at risk. Going into this campaign one of the major strengths of the NDP pitch was that they were nationally competitive right across the country. The NDP doesn't want to regress into being a regional protest party.
Click to expand...
Yes, given that Quebec is likely to make up around half the NDP's caucus, strong appeal there is absolutely vital to any future leader.

I confess I'm not all that familiar with the NDP's Quebec bench beyond a few names (Turmel, Saganash) -- is there anybody there who people are talking about as a potential future leader?
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Sean C said:
Yes, given that Quebec is likely to make up around half the NDP's caucus, strong appeal there is absolutely vital to any future leader.

I confess I'm not all that familiar with the NDP's Quebec bench beyond a few names (Turmel, Saganash) -- is there anybody there who people are talking about as a potential future leader?
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Turmel and Boulerice made a big mistake in 1995, they can't be future leaders of a "Federalist" party
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
Sean C said:
I confess I'm not all that familiar with the NDP's Quebec bench beyond a few names (Turmel, Saganash) -- is there anybody there who people are talking about as a potential future leader?
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Yeah I'm in the same position. Who is Mulcair's top Quebec Lieutenant?

This would be a ways down the road, but it'd be a great story if one of the "no name" MPs that were surprisingly elected in the Orange Wave ended up becoming the leader to eventually take the party into power.

I liked this Globe article about Lauren Liu that was written at the start of the campaign. I hope she keeps her seat.

Edit: 308 projects an NDP win :)
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Simon Belmont said:
There is one, it's just been dead since the election started.
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We should have a new thread for the new Parliament -- hopefully it won't be Harperland 36 hours from now!

Sean C said:
Yes, given that Quebec is likely to make up around half the NDP's caucus, strong appeal there is absolutely vital to any future leader.

I confess I'm not all that familiar with the NDP's Quebec bench beyond a few names (Turmel, Saganash) -- is there anybody there who people are talking about as a potential future leader?
Click to expand...

Boulerice? Guy Caron? I don't know them very well either. Even now, a lot of their Quebec MPs were really just placeholders, so it's hard to think that any of them would be able to step up and win the leadership.

I can't believe Dewar hasn't improved his French enough to be considered a viable leadership contender...though if he loses his race, that point may be moot soon enough.

I'm kind of astounded it's reached a point where we're even talking about this. The NDP picked Mulcair because he was the one who promised he could get them over the hump, and it seemed like he was going to do just that. I remember thinking in August that, no matter how much I disliked the possibility, we were going to wind up with him as PM. To go from that to questioning his future in less than two months is a pretty crazy flameout.
 
S

Sean C

Member
Tiktaalik said:
I liked this Globe article about Lauren Liu that was written at the start of the campaign. I hope she keeps her seat.

Edit: 308 projects an NDP win :)
Click to expand...
All of the various projection sites I've seen support Liu winning, so she's probably back. The Liberal candidate in the riding is a former ADQ MNA who previously supporting the Tories in this riding, weirdly enough -- somebody just looking for a seat, I would guess.
 
Sakura

Sakura

Member
I've seen some articles and stuff draw comparisons with the British election and shy Tories, polls being wrong etc. But looking at opinion polls, I'm not sure I am seeing this? Most I see is a tie between the Conservatives and the Labour party in the UK, while in Canada current polls have leads of like 4~6 points for the Liberals, so I am not sure I understand the point of comparison the articles are making.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Ignore the British comparisons -- just look at our last few elections here. The Conservatives tend to overperform their polling numbers by a few points.

mo60 said:
Ben perin said that Harper lost the moral authority to govern. That must hurt for harper.
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/20...o-govern-says-former-pmo-lawyer/#.ViPoTvmrTIW

I also found something else, but I'm trying to find the link to it currently.It's related Jenni Bryne.

Edit: Found it.The conservatives don't expect her to be in Calgary tommorrow according to this guy.
https://twitter.com/IvisonJ/status/655818203390586880
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1) First read that as Perrin Beatty (one-time PCer) and raised an eyebrow. Realized who it actually was and...wow. That must hurt Harper personally. If he's losing PMO loyalists, he's losing the most dedicated Conservatives there are.

2) If senior CPC people aren't at their leader's election night party, that's a sign they're expecting to lose. Nobody wants to fly out to Calgary Monday night, then have to rush back to Ottawa to prepare for the immediate transition to Opposition.
 
S

Sean C

Member
pestul said:
I wonder how many bench-crossers this election will produce. It's going to be a fun day tomorrow.
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Given how ideologically polarized Harper's party is compared to all the others, I don't think much opportunistic floor-crossing can be expected. What defections the party has had of late have tended to be motivated by personal grievance (e.g., Eve Adams).
 
K

killer rin

Member
7fztFBp.png
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Here is my riding https://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35026/essex/
I can't believe we finally have a chance to shove Jeff Watson to the dirt, such an exciting time!

The Last Emperor said:
Going to the Trudeau rally in an hour
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Make sure you get his autograph on an election sign, everything is looking to be him being our next Prime Minister; and what better way to celebrate then hanging a signed sign on your wall :p
 
L

Lebon14

Member
#DenounceHarper has been the #1 trend on twitter today. It must be a sign. A sign that we'll defeat Harper once and for all. Tomorrow's the day. I'm having my fingers crossed.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Sakura said:
I've seen some articles and stuff draw comparisons with the British election and shy Tories, polls being wrong etc. But looking at opinion polls, I'm not sure I am seeing this? Most I see is a tie between the Conservatives and the Labour party in the UK, while in Canada current polls have leads of like 4~6 points for the Liberals, so I am not sure I understand the point of comparison the articles are making.
Click to expand...

I think the 2 major differences between UK vs Canada is that the SNP of today is what the Bloc was at its strongest. The Bloc of today has lost lots of its luster, while Scotland is currently living their Bloc moment with the SNP

Dem-Libs in the UK have been weak for a long time, for a several generations the Dem-Libs have been in 3rd place with no chance of retaking 2nd.

Dem-Libs were the bigger losers coming out of the coalitions with Cameron while the latter campaign for stability and Dem-Libs got wiped off to benefit the Conservatives

As for the Liberals in Canada have historically always been in either 1st or 2nd place with the exception of 2011; the NDP has not been able the keep hold of 2nd place for 2015 while the Liberals see themselves repair and fix the problems they underwent for the last 3 campaigns.


*the perils of coalition governments is that the weaker party ends up being a temporary crutch propping up a coalition while the bigger party takes all the credit for anything positive
 
O

Onion_Relish

Member
Lebon14 said:
#DenounceHarper has been the #1 trend on twitter today. It must be a sign. A sign that we'll defeat Harper once and for all. Tomorrow's the day. I'm having my fingers crossed.
Click to expand...

because internet activist users tend to be so active in our democracy rockeyeroll.gif
I'm just hoping some of this slacktivism becomes actual voting. I'll be heading out early tomorrow and will see how Kamloops looks and report back
 
P

PumpkinSpice

Banned
Onion_Relish said:
because internet activist users tend to be so active in our democracy rockeyeroll.gif
I'm just hoping some of this slacktivism becomes actual voting. I'll be heading out early tomorrow and will see how Kamloops looks and report back
Click to expand...

Young people who don't vote tend to be either be
  1. Totally unconcerned or even aware of what's going on in politics or
  2. Believe that their vote won't have any effect
When you see people aware of what's going on, jazzed up for change, and interested in a cause that they think will actually happen it's pretty likely they'll take 10 minutes out of their day to be part of it.
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
/!\ Prediction based on useless anecdote warning /!\

I was at a hipster brunch spot this morning and everyone around me was talking about the election. I think we're going to see a notable uptick in youth turnout, which certainly benefits NDP and Liberal.
 
L

Lebon14

Member
Onion_Relish said:
because internet activist users tend to be so active in our democracy rockeyeroll.gif
I'm just hoping some of this slacktivism becomes actual voting. I'll be heading out early tomorrow and will see how Kamloops looks and report back
Click to expand...

I know that I'll be voting tomorrow; I'm not just here for show, I'll act. I'll be trying to kick Denis Lebel's butt with a NDP vote.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Lebon14 said:
I know that I'll be voting tomorrow; I'm not just here for show, I'll act. I'll be trying to kick Denis Lebel's butt with a NDP vote.
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I like you! Do it! Denis Lebel is a terrible MP... plus Lebel used to be a card carrying member of the Bloc

Lebel's handling of the ''new'' Champlain Bridge was a slap in the face at Canadians on the South Shore and in Montreal who never vote Conservative.

Lebel has taken so many anti-Montreal stances, the guy needs the boot. Just because the Conservatives have zero seats in a city, it doesn't mean they have to play politics and shit on the entire Metropolitan area.

Plus the Cons were ready to throw away history be naming the new birdge as the ''Maurice Richard'' Bridge and throw Samuel de Champlain under the buss.

Cons are small minded, that they would erase founding historical figures for sports legends.

Lol, if it wasn't for Samuel de Champlain, there would be no Maurice Richard.
 
L

Lebon14

Member
gutter_trash said:
Mulcair on his last day takes no questions from journos
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/ac...interne=cyberpresse_B20__3274086_section_POS1
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He wants his message to get there straight and clear and don't have the media try to make him say something he'll regret. Which is a good move, imo.

gutter_trash said:
I like you! Do it! Denis Lebel is a terrible MP... plus Lebel used to be a card carrying member of the Bloc

Lebel's handling of the ''new'' Champlain Bridge was a slap in the face at Canadians on the South Shore and in Montreal who never vote Conservative.

Lebel has taken so many anti-Montreal stances, the guy needs the boot. Just because the Conservatives have zero seats in a city, it doesn't mean they have to play politics and shit on the entire Metropolitan area.
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HAHAHA! Wow. We learn something everyday.

I agree on the Montreal events & stance. I remember once that Laval (was it? I don't exactly remember) tried to get federal funding for a stade (not a huge one) but were denied. Weeks later, somewhere in Alberta, they asked funds for one and got accepted... That was a thing.
 
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