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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Tiktaalik

Member
I'm sure that whatever riding it is, you'll come up with some reason why he shouldn't vote Liberal.

lol yes well it's happened to me again and again where people I knew that didn't read up on politics very much just assumed various things about their riding without doing any research and strategically voted for the wrong party for the riding. It's really frustrating to me to see ridings get split because people are strategically voting for a party that actually isn't in a position to win.

Unless he's in Ontario or the Atlantic provinces it's unlikely that he's actually in a safe Liberal seat.
 

Popstar

Member
lol yes well it's happened to me again and again where people I knew that didn't read up on politics very much just assumed various things about their riding without doing any research and strategically voted for the wrong party for the riding. It's really frustrating to me to see ridings get split because people are strategically voting for a party that actually isn't in a position to win.
Yeah, I know how frustrating that is. This one guy was trying to get me to vote NDP even though the Liberals had a large lead according to threehundredeight in both my former riding (Vancouver Centre 44.4%) and the new riding (Vancouver Granville 45.6%) I found myself in after redistricting.

Unless he's in Ontario or the Atlantic provinces it's unlikely that he's actually in a safe Liberal seat.
*cough*
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Yeah, I know how frustrating that is. This one guy was trying to get me to vote NDP even though the Liberals had a large lead according to threehundredeight in both my former riding (Vancouver Centre 44.4%) and the new riding (Vancouver Granville 45.6%) I found myself in after redistricting.

If you're confident with trusting 308 data then take notice that it shows that the Cons have basically zero chance of winning either riding, and so you might as well vote for whatever opposition party you feel like. Personally I think it's a better strategy to go with the party that has the best chances of forming a minority government. At the moment that's the NDP, due to the fact that it's leading in three provinces and second in three whereas the Liberals are third in five. If you want to vote Liberal and then hope for some unprecedented coalition arrangement appears, go ahead, but I think that's a pretty risky strategy.

Please don't misunderstand me as I'm not advocating voting NDP purely out of ideological party affiliation. I just want people who have no strong party affiliation and who simply want to ditch the Conservatives to:
1) Read polls often and stay informed.
2) Consider factors outside of their riding and how well each party is doing in each province.
3) Consider what might happen after the election, and who could possibly win a government mandate.
4) If the opposition party that stands the best chance of forming a minority government is in second place, but in striking distance of winning your riding (ie. 5-10% back from first place), consider taking a risk and voting for them. Winning that seat could push them over the line into winning a minority and getting Harper out.
5) Make a final decision close to election time.
6) Vote :)

If the Liberals were the opposition party that was number one in multiple provinces I'd be advocating that people consider voting for them first of all. Maybe that will be the case in several months, but that's not the case at this moment.
 
Yeah, I know how frustrating that is. This one guy was trying to get me to vote NDP even though the Liberals had a large lead according to threehundredeight in both my former riding (Vancouver Centre 44.4%) and the new riding (Vancouver Granville 45.6%) I found myself in after redistricting.


*cough*

But... your friend is right? The Conservatives seem dead in your riding. It makes no difference whether you vote NDP or Liberal, the Conservatives won't win anyway.

My riding in comparison (Richmond Hill, Ontario) is 41% Liberal and 32% Conservative. That's a lot tighter, currently held by a Conservative MP. It wouldn't be smart to vote for the NDP at 21% (I doubt they'll be that high on election night as it is).

edit: beaten
 

Popstar

Member
But... your friend is right? The Conservatives seem dead in your riding. It makes no difference whether you vote NDP or Liberal, the Conservatives won't win anyway.

My riding in comparison (Richmond Hill, Ontario) is 41% Liberal and 32% Conservative. That's a lot tighter, currently held by a Conservative MP. It wouldn't be smart to vote for the NDP at 21% (I doubt they'll be that high on election night as it is).

edit: beaten
You missed the earlier conversation.
 

Iph

Banned
NDP is fantastic in certain areas, but I do not think it would be a good choice for Canada as a whole at all.

If I can, I'll vote Conservative or Liberal, depending on what my area is looking like. d^_^b
 

down 2 orth

Member
Be careful with polls guys, they have a funny way of pivoting in a different direction on election day. Case in point:

-The recent Greek referendum
-The recent British election
-The recent Israeli election

If you want Harper out, NDP clearly has momentum on their backs, voting for the Liberals will more than likely benefit the Conservatives.
 

Sakura

Member
I think every one should vote for the party they like most and not worry about strategic voting.
Please split the vote
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
I do not support Trudeau or anything, but I've never understood the 'too young' bit. Harper was 46~47 when he became PM Trudeau is 43. Not really a huge difference.
You can also add that Harper was an MP for two terms before becoming PM, the same as Trudeau.
 

Azih

Member
You can also add that Harper was an MP for two terms before becoming PM, the same as Trudeau.
The Con attack on Mulcair as a 'career politician' is hilarious for the same reason. But it's not about what makes sense. It's about what they can get to stick.
 
Paul Wells tweeted that they were doing it because they found that "careerist" worked well against Mulcair. Not sure how their polling found that it was the ideal line coming from Harper of all people, but...we'll see, I guess.

Be careful with polls guys, they have a funny way of pivoting in a different direction on election day. Case in point:

-The recent Greek referendum
-The recent British election
-The recent Israeli election

If you want Harper out, NDP clearly has momentum on their backs, voting for the Liberals will more than likely benefit the Conservatives.

After the debate, it's hard to tell if they have momentum. Google says that interest in Trudeau shot up afterwards, which may mean that people are thinking about his party instead. The fact Mulcair is suddenly begging for Harper to take part in more debates sounds to me like he doesn't feel as sure as he was a little over a week ago. And if you want examples that are a little more relevant to Canada, look at Ontario (where the campaign saw Wynne go from being a probable loser to having a huge majority), or BC (the NDP spent most of the campaign in first, before their vote collapsed in the days leading up to the election and the Liberals won again), or Quebec (PQ started out looking likely, until the Liberals surged past them), or the last two Alberta elections (first Redford won after looking dead in the water for weeks, then the NDP rose a few dozen points over the course of the campaign).

Point bring, polling in this country is nowhere near as sophisticated as many other countries, and things have a way of changing very quickly. A party having momentum two and a half months out from an election doesn't mean a whole lot.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Be careful with polls guys, they have a funny way of pivoting in a different direction on election day. Case in point:

-The recent Greek referendum
-The recent British election
-The recent Israeli election

If you want Harper out, NDP clearly has momentum on their backs, voting for the Liberals will more than likely benefit the Conservatives.

The thing is, I was talking to some people from work about the debate and that was their first exposure to Mulcair, whereas pretty much everyone knows about Trudeau and Harper. I also talked to some people who didn't watch the debate and they said that they're voting for the Liberals because they recognize Trudeau and don't want to vote for the Conservatives.

In Ontario, as of right now, it's a bit less murky in terms of the NDP support. Outside of the few pockets that the NDP are polling well in, it's pretty much Liberals vs Conservatives right now. Case in point, the NDP hasn't even assigned a candidate for my riding which is one of the new ones that's ripe for the picking.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Aren't you in Ottawa? Outside of Ottawa Centre, I don't think there's much fertile ground for the NDP here.

Well my point is that they're not even trying right now.

Alberta definitely wasn't fertile grounds for the NDP 3 months before their elections, it was only a few weeks before election day that the NDP really shot up in popularity.

The same could happen here in Ontario, but right now they're not even trying for the most part. It's a Liberal vs Conservative battleground here essentially by default.
 
Be careful with polls guys, they have a funny way of pivoting in a different direction on election day. Case in point:

-The recent Greek referendum
-The recent British election
-The recent Israeli election

If you want Harper out, NDP clearly has momentum on their backs, voting for the Liberals will more than likely benefit the Conservatives.

I don't think that creating a polarizing two party state would benefit Canada at all.

The Liberal party is like the balance of the Force that keeps things sane and normal.

A strong NDP party would strengthen the Conervative party in the long term.

Canada needs a strong Liberal party to bring things back to NORMAL
 

Silexx

Member
Be careful with polls guys, they have a funny way of pivoting in a different direction on election day. Case in point:

-The recent Greek referendum
-The recent British election
-The recent Israeli election

If you want Harper out, NDP clearly has momentum on their backs, voting for the Liberals will more than likely benefit the Conservatives.

Don't be so sure. There are more traditional Liberals willing to vote CPC than there are those willing to vote NDP. Now, Harper is polling very low, so I don't think we'll the Grits be abandoned completely, but I wouldn't underestimate the Blue Grit voters (who are mostly in Southern Ontario) and their distaste for the NDP. Still, this election may very throw every conventional wisdom out the window.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
I don't think that creating a polarizing two party state would benefit Canada at all.

The Liberal party is like the balance of the Force that keeps things sane and normal.

A strong NDP party would strengthen the Conervative party in the long term.

Canada needs a strong Liberal party to bring things back to NORMAL

I think a strong NDP would force the Conservatives to adapt and maybe become a little less racist and exclusionary. Hopefully it would move them towards the left as well. I don't think it would make them stronger though.
 
I think a strong NDP would force the Conservatives to adapt and maybe become a little less racist and exclusionary. Hopefully it would move them towards the left as well. I don't think it would make them stronger though.
Are Conservatives really racist?
They have a Shikh MP with a blue turban sitting right behind the PM in the commons. Something that is unthinkable in Quebec provincially.

Conservatives have had Chinese-Canadian MPs, Japanese-Canadian MPs, 1st Nations MPs, Jewish MPs, Muslim MPs etc.... Something unthinkable provincial in Quebec's National Assembly


Jason Kenney even if he is strategically pandering has played the multicultural Liberal playbook to win over minorities.


They are not Republicans
 

MMarston

Was getting caught part of your plan?
I don't think that creating a polarizing two party state would benefit Canada at all.

The Liberal party is like the balance of the Force that keeps things sane and normal.

A strong NDP party would strengthen the Conervative party in the long term.

Canada needs a strong Liberal party to bring things back to NORMAL

This pretty much why, as unlikely as it is, I want a Liberal opposition if the NDP does go for government. Vice versa too.

Again though, highly unlikely at this stage, especially FPTP, so that's wishful thinking.

I think a strong NDP would force the Conservatives to adapt and maybe become a little less racist and exclusionary. Hopefully it would move them towards the left as well. I don't think it would make them stronger though.

I don't like the Conservatives either, but I disagree with that sentiment. They've never struck me as racist or exclusionary at all. Really, their main problem is the nature of their policies for Canadians in general.
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
ihuWX8F.png
Bike lane? Who gives a shit about a bike lane?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-bus-bike-lane-toronto-1.3182473
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Are Conservatives really racist?
They have a Shikh MP with a blue turban sitting right behind the PM in the commons. Something that is unthinkable in Quebec provincially.

Conservatives have had Chinese-Canadian MPs, Japanese-Canadian MPs, 1st Nations MPs, Jewish MPs, Muslim MPs etc.... Something unthinkable provincial in Quebec's National Assembly


Jason Kenney even if he is strategically pandering has played the multicultural Liberal playbook to win over minorities.


They are not Republicans
The Republicans somehow have women, black people and that Indian guy. That doesn't mean they aren't racist. The same goes for the Conservatives.
I don't like the Conservatives either, but I disagree with that sentiment. They've never struck me as racist or exclusionary at all. Really, their main problem is the nature of their policies for Canadians in general.
I did a search on Google so here are some of the racist/exclusionary things that Conservatives have done.


Protecting Canadians from Barbaric Cultural Practices

Are Conservatives race-baiting Facebook with this First Nations petition?
Muslim groups 'troubled' by Stephen Harper's mosque remark
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair decries prime minister's comment as a form of Islamaphobia
Asked how to distinguish between teens messing around in their basements and someone who is radicalized, Harper said it would be a serious offence "no matter who you are."

"It doesn't matter what the age of the person is, or whether they're in a basement, or whether they're in a mosque or somewhere else," Harper said Friday in Richmond Hill, Ont.
Political Spat over Niqab Comment Ends With Conservative Minister Calling Liberal Party ‘Racist’
"The overwhelming majority of Canadians want that rule to continue to apply. We've done a lot in the past year to strengthen the value of Canadian citizenship. People take pride in that. They don't want their co-citizens to be terrorists. They don't want people to become citizens who haven't respected the rules," Alexander said.
...
"I am appalled by the language used by Immigration Minister Chris Alexander in an interview with VICE," McCallum says in the release. "It is unacceptable that this Minister, speaking on behalf of Canadians, would suggest that all women who wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies are 'terrorists.'"
Harper says Ottawa will appeal ruling allowing veil during citizenship oath
Seems like they want to ban hijabs too (even though those don't cover faces). Unfortunately not surprising.

"Whities" and "brown people"? Conservative MP has a history of using racially divisive rhetoric
Controversy erupted at the Manning Networking Conference on Saturday when the New Brunswick MP commented on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program:

"I’m going to put this in terms of colours but it’s not meant to be about race, it makes no sense to pay ‘whities’ to stay home while we bring in brown people to work in these jobs."
Same MP criticizing the government's "statement of reconciliation and apology" to First Nations people.
"This apology paved the way for an industry funded by taxpayers and fuelled by guilt.

"Were Indian residential schools perfect. Of course not. But what was the alternative? Should the federal government not have provided education for aboriginal children?"
There's lots more with that one. Disgusting.
There was this dangerous dehumanisation of terrorists that I got in the mail a few months ago. It also promoted that "us vs them" thing that ISIS is trying so hard to make a thing.

Niqabs ‘rooted in a culture that is anti-women,’ Harper says
“We do not allow people to cover their faces during citizenship ceremonies. Why would Canadians, contrary to our own values, embrace a practice at that time that is not transparent, that is not open and frankly is rooted in a culture that is anti-women,” Mr. Harper told the Commons Tuesday. “That is unacceptable to Canadians, unacceptable to Canadian women.”

This one is old but wtf Harper?
“You've got to remember that west of Winnipeg the ridings the Liberals hold are dominated by people who are either recent Asian immigrants or recent migrants from eastern Canada: people who live in ghettoes and who are not integrated into western Canadian society.” Report Newsmagazine, January 2001.

The result of Canada under the Conservatives.
The EKOS poll: Are Canadians getting more racist?

There was also some comments that Harper made in the U.S. many years ago about Canada being a white country. I think it was on his Wikipedia page but I guess they removed it.

The Conservatives are definitely racist.
 
I don't know if the Conservatives are racist, necessarily -- as gutter said, Jason Kenney has made a concerted effort to win over some diaspora groups, particularly the Sikhs -- but they're not averse to a little race-baiting when it suits them. They've definitely engaged in Muslim-bashing; just a few months ago they had Tim Uppal -- in all his turbaned glory -- give a press conference in the House of Commons foyer about how it was necessary to ban niqabs and hijabs. Just last month, didn't their Senate caucus come out with a proposal that would require imams to be licensed by the government?

Looking at the redistributed votes from 2011 Ottawa-Vanier could be in play for the NDP? (I don't know anything about Ottawa)

Ottawa–Vanier Liberal
21,417
38.1

NDP-New Democratic Party
16,126
28.7

Conservative
15,711
27.9

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p45&lang=e#tab6on

2011 probably marked the low point of Mauril Belanger's electoral career, and he still won by 10 points. If the Liberals lose Ottawa-Vanier, it'd be as part of a '93 Tories-style obliteration. I know I'm pretty partisan, but I don't think that's a probable outcome at this stage.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!

Walpurgis

Banned
The difference is, the Conservative party is the idiot. I haven't seen any racist or exclusionary policies from the NDP and two out of the three of those racist/homophobic NDP were kicked from the party. The Conservatives on the other hand...

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney was quoted as saying in 2012 "If they subsequently withdraw their own claim, they’re telling us that in fact they don’t need Canada’s protection, that they’re not victims of persecution, and that’s… a bogus claim. It’s a fake claim."

The government has since pushed to reduce Hungarian Roma immigration. In December 2012, Hungary was added to a list of "Safe Countries", which would make refugee claims harder.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people_in_Canada

Ottawa’s crackdown on Roma refugees has Hungarians seeking asylum elsewhere
The federal government’s push to reduce the number of Roma refugees from Hungary appears to be working, with a drop of hundreds to only dozens of Hungarians filing for asylum since the crackdown late last year.

Hungarians, who claimed asylum in Canada more than any other nationality from 2010 to 2012, are now being deported back to their home country where many Roma say they face poverty, stigmatization and intimidation by extremist groups.
In December, Hungary was placed on a list of “safe countries,” meaning refugees will now have their claims assessed much more quickly. They have no right to appeal decisions to the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) and failed claimants are deported faster.
According to Beatrix, after seeing so many friends and family return from Canada, many people are now choosing to escape to England instead. They have gotten the message that, in Canada, deportation is their likely fate.
 
Anyone else notice the two terrorists who killed soldiers were actually White Québecois Catholics (or grew up as one)? Strange how this is viewed as a Muslim immigration issue.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!

Walpurgis

Banned
Anyone else notice the two terrorists who killed soldiers were actually White Québecois Catholics (or grew up as one)? Strange how this is viewed as a Muslim immigration issue.
We had one White Christian ISIS sympathiser in Winnipeg.
aaron-driver.jpg

Driver was born in Saskatchewan to a Christian family and has lived in New Brunswick, Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba. His mother died when he was seven years old.

His father later remarried and joined the Canadian Forces. Driver said he's never gotten along with his father or stepmother and isn't close with them now.

Driver said his father caught him smoking a joint at age 14 and sent him to London, Ont., to live with his sister. For the next three years, he hung out with the wrong people and got into trouble.

But that changed when Driver was 17, after he discovered his girlfriend was pregnant.

"That's why I stopped drinking and I stopped doing drugs and I stopped partying and stuff, and I started reading the Bible … because, you know, I had a lot of responsibility coming my way very soon," he said.

The Bible is also what Driver said drove him to Islam.

"I just decided it couldn't possibly be the word of God, so I started watching debates to find some answers. A lot of debates between Christians and atheists and Christians and Muslims, and the Muslims were always destroying them in these debates," he said.

When asked how he turned from devout Muslim to a "radical extremist," Driver said it was a result of reading up on the Middle East online.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...parliament-but-denies-he-s-a-threat-1.3124815

He's harmless though but that's besides the point.
 

mdubs

Banned
bobody talked about mailboxes during the debate

seriously, why no talk about Canada post?

I'd really like to hear Mulcair justify his position on this, since he is only restoring door delivery to those who received it before that cut. He's arguing that it removes jobs and disadvantages the elderly and disabled. The real baffling thing is that most newer neighbourhoods already had supermail boxes before the cuts, what about the elderly and disabled in those communities? Why is he trying to restore and unequal standard, are the needs of people in those communities less valid or something? Either give it to everybody or give it to nobody
 
I'd really like to hear Mulcair justify his position on this, since he is only restoring door delivery to those who received it before that cut. He's arguing that it removes jobs and disadvantages the elderly and disabled. The real baffling thing is that most newer neighbourhoods already had supermail boxes before the cuts, what about the elderly and disabled in those communities? Why is he trying to restore and unequal standard, are the needs of people in those communities less valid or something? Either give it to everybody or give it to nobody

desnly populated urban centers pose a greater challenge for those superboxes than say suburbs .

In my neighborhood, there is no place anywhere where you could set up multiple superboxes for all the densely compact urban residents. you would have to have one at every street corner removing bustops and shit. It is impossible to implement superboxes in the city

This LOL is one my my top 5 issues for voting against Harper because I'm a city dweller
 

mdubs

Banned
desnly populated urban centers pose a greater challenge for those superboxes than say suburbs .

In my neighborhood, there is no place anywhere where you could set up multiple superboxes for all the densely compact urban residents. you would have to have one at every street corner removing bustops and shit. It is impossible to implement superboxes in the city

This LOL is one my my top 5 issues for voting against Harper because I'm a city dweller

While that is a valid point, where does that fit in to his argument about the disabled and elderly? They still have to walk to the supermail boxes in some suburban communities while other suburban neighbourhoods get home delivery.

Add: I suppose the point is that there is something wrong when my slightly older suburban neighbourhood gets home delivery while the newer neighbourhood 5 minutes away with exactly the same housing density has supermail boxes
 

Sch1sm

Member
What?! This can't be real! Isn't there some constitution thing that would prevent this? This is straight up racist.

Don't forget people who marry someone with dual/multi citizenships.


I wonder what the numbers are like for who's effected by this. Probably majority of the population.
 
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