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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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mo60

Member
I don't think this will be a great night for the conservatives and maybe even the ndp now sadly. I hope the liberals don't get a majority.Sub 100 seats may be possible for both conservatives and the ndp now.
 
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it starts with that but the turning part was really when the Libs became a viable pro-economy option (namely, to run deficits to create stimulus).

there's always been a social element to this campaign but there was still an underlying feeling that people had to choose between social and political interests or economic interest

the Libs announced a economic platform that I think really made them as much of a pro-economy candidate as anything else... that's when they really started to match the Cons on the economy and steal a lot of votes from the NPD -- they basically came together to offer something attractive in every social, political, and economic avenue... so I think some folks that felt they had to vote for NDP or Cons for just one could instead vote for the Libs for both. and that packaging also gave the Libs leadership. I think that stand Trudeau took to run deficits actually made him look ready and like a leader. it showed him as someone willing to take action and made both other candidates look as inactive, lethargic

anecdotally, I know very capitalist pro-economy typically-Conservative folks voting for Libs based purely on the Lib platforming having, what, $40 billion a year in debt stimulus (vs Cons spending only $5b or so) (combined with no hard corp tax rate increase) because they feel the economy needs it.

I thank everyone who responded.

I caught an interview between party spokespersons on CBC a few weeks ago where the Liberal spokesman banged the drum on running a deficit to dig out of the recession, and while I know just enough about economics to know that this is the best-proven strategy for digging out of an economic recession, I am glad to know that the Canadian voters are well-educated enough to accept this argument as well.

The Conservative spokesperson harped on how it would create a massive deficit, but the Liberal spokesman responded by pointing out that Harper had turned a surplus into a deficit and left the dude stuttering for a bit. It was great theatre.
 
I feel bad being the only guy cheering for Liberal losses, but I guess I have to be the one NDP supporter who believes. lol

You're not alone friend. Really don't want a Liberal Majority to happen, so I'm hoping the NDP can take as many seats as possible from the Liberals without risking the Conservatives pulling ahead of them.
 

Luigi87

Member
Painting the country red
We're painting the country red
We dare not stop
Or waste a drop
So let the votes be spread
We're painting the country red
We're painting the country red
 

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
Yeah, guys I -really- think strategic voting is going to play a huge role in this election - I know some of you think it is having a marginal effect... but I guess we'll see.

Edit: up 441 votes in tobique, I think I'm calling all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
You're not alone friend. Really don't want a Liberal Majority to happen, so I'm hoping the NDP can take as many seats as possible from the Liberals without risking the Conservatives pulling ahead of them.
I'm at a point where I hope the CPC can hold seats enough seats in Ontario to stop a Liberal majority. This is how fucked the election is for me right now.
 
Yeah rural Ontario and suburban Toronto (including Scarborough and Etobicoke) will probably all go conservative. God damn it
I'll be EXTREMELY surprised if GTA goes blue. 308 has my riding going 60% Liberal and 25% Conservative, and if my riding is predicted to be that Liberal, then ALL GTA ridings will be really fucking Liberal. It's really a matter of how well Liberals do in rural ridings. That will be the difference between them winning 60 out of 122 Ontario seats and winning 80-90/122.
 
Yeah, guys I -really- think strategic voting is going to play a huge role in this election - I know some of you think it is having a marginal effect... but I guess we'll see.

Too hard to tell in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals polled at 60% there over the weekend, so I don't think that strategic voting played too much of a role. Not when previously NDP ridings like Halifax and (possibly) St. John's East are going red.
 

GtwoK

Member
Why are some polls seats called before all polls are counted in that area? At what point do they call the candidate elected\, despite less than half the polls being counted?
 

oneils

Member
Why are some polls seats called before all polls are counted in that area? At what point do they call the candidate elected, despite less than half the polls being counted?

When the math says that it's improbable anyone will catch up. They probably have statistical models/algorithms that make this fairly straightforward.
 

UberTag

Member
The five outstanding ridings that have yet to be called...

- Fundy Royal
- Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (just started releasing data)
- New Brunswick Southwest
- St. John's East
- Tobique--Mactaquac

Why are some polls seats called before all polls are counted in that area? At what point do they call the candidate elected\, despite less than half the polls being counted?
They run the early numbers through a number of different tools based on historic trends and local polling before making a conclusive call on a riding.
 
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