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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Walpurgis

Banned
Yeah, guys I -really- think strategic voting is going to play a huge role in this election - I know some of you think it is having a marginal effect... but I guess we'll see.

Edit: up 441 votes in tobique, I think I'm calling all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada.

Strategic voting is what killed the NDP in the rest of Canada after the niqab killed them in Quebec. It doesn't work so well at a riding level though because many people don't know about their local candidates and the situation in their riding.
 

Indicate

Member
Yeah rural Ontario and suburban Toronto (including Scarborough and Etobicoke) will probably all go conservative. God damn it

Scarborough is red by a significant amount according to 308. My riding was previously NDP and is now Liberal. Plus there's alot of Muslims in Scarborough.
 
Why are some polls seats called before all polls are counted in that area? At what point do they call the candidate elected\, despite less than half the polls being counted?

They can look at the trends and extrapolate from there. Some ridings are fairly homogeneous, so they know if the half the votes are going one way, they figure the rest will, too.

Also, incumbency plays a big role -- someone like Lawrence Macauley was guaranteed to win no matter what.
 

Sean C

Member
The Liberals in Central Nova have something like 12,000 votes to 5000 for the Tories. The only previous time they won that riding was in 1993, and that was because of vote-splitting between the PCs and Reform.
 
I'm at a point where I hope the CPC can hold seats enough seats in Ontario to stop a Liberal majority. This is how fucked the election is for me right now.

I'm hoping the Prairies will be the Prairies and not give the Liberal's enough seats to win a majority. I don't have enough faith in Ontario to think they'll won't go red en mass.
 

dankir

Member
Wow all of Atlantic Canada went Liberal.

I didn't even know there was a Marxist party running my riding (Suburb outside of Montreal lol) and good ol Rhinoceros party hahaha.


Let's go Justin!
 
Yeah rural Ontario and suburban Toronto (including Scarborough and Etobicoke) will probably all go conservative. God damn it
I got my old conservative religious grandparents to vote Liberal in Etobicoke North. Did my part. I voted in Brampton Centre since it is technically my home riding even though I don't live there anymore. Hoping Brampton does something right for once and gets that bum Gasol out of office.
 
The five outstanding ridings that have yet to be called...

- Fundy Royal
- Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (just started releasing data)
- New Brunswick Southwest
- St. John's East
- Tobique--Mactaquac


They run the early numbers through a number of different tools based on historic trends and local polling before making a conclusive call on a riding.

There's a place called Fundy Royal?
 
Not going to post it yet, since I feel posting it prematurely might jinx it (Probably wait until votes are counted in Alberta before I do it), but I have a LOVELY gif I'm planning to post should the NDP win.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
I'm hoping the Prairies will be the Prairies and not give the Liberal's enough seats to win a majority. I don't have enough faith in Ontario to think they'll won't go red en mass.

Half of Manitoba is rural so that's all Conservative. The other half in Winnipeg is Liberal though.
 

J-Man

Member
I've been following this awesome thread all election long, thanks for all the links and opinions.

I'm happy to see this Liberal sweep right now and am very optimistic that a change will happen! Wouldn't hate if a few of those went NDP as that is my traditional party (if you can have one by 30 years old, but lots of Federal elections in my current lifetime).

I'm in Ottawa Centre, and I felt I could easily vote my conscience (liberal) but still expect Paul Dewar to be my representative at election time. I wouldn't be able to sleep, though, if the vote splits and the Conservative walks up the middle (or right flank, as it were) and formed a government. I have voted strategically and it failed in the past when Lawrence Cannon won my old riding in the Pontiac, so I now have a hard time not voting my conscience.

Excited, thought, that this will be a good night.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I'm hoping the Prairies will be the Prairies and not give the Liberal's enough seats to win a majority. I don't have enough faith in Ontario to think they'll also go red en mass.
Yeah, if the NDP has to die for the Conservatives to win some seats, I'll take it. I think I'm done being an NDP member now and might just give up on voting.

Although I threaten that every year it seems. lol
 

Kifimbo

Member
Interesting, from Paul Wells:

Atlantic Canada numbers for all parties now within a couple points of last Ekos poll.

And Ekos predicted this:

20151018f_slide1.png
 

ibyea

Banned
Say I have a question guys. Canada has a parliamentary system, right? Why didn't NDP and Liberals form coalition to stop Harper? I know they tried in 2008 but how come they failed?
 

Sean C

Member
Yeah rural Ontario and suburban Toronto (including Scarborough and Etobicoke) will probably all go conservative. God damn it
The Liberals are going to sweep Scarborough and Etobicoke.

Say I have a question guys. Canada has a parliamentary system, right? Why didn't NDP and Liberals form coalition to stop Harper? I know they tried in 2008 but how come they failed?
There were a bunch of reasons, including Liberal unease about it, and the single-biggest factor was the fact that they would have needed the support of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which was the wedge that Harper used to break it up after he succeeded in temporarily shuttering the House of Commons (which he shouldn't have been able to do, in my opinion).

Edit: Now ahead by more than 500 votes in Tobique. This is a full-on rout.
 

sunofsam

Member
If Saint John--Rothesay isn't Weston I'll literally go and jump into Lake Ontario. I just don't see it happening, we keep re-electing him because the majority of people back home will only vote conservative now. I had a family member recite the "Just isn't ready" line to me a few days ago when I phoned home to check in.

Wayne Long is elected.

Put the link on YouTube please.
 
I start thinking that Liberal could "wipe out" Quebec too.

Lol, maybe everybody are STRONGLY for the Cannabis legalization ( i know i am xD ).

Almost start to be boring, i'm watching more baseball and tv then the election lol.
 

XOMTOR

Member
I'm at a point where I hope the CPC can hold seats enough seats in Ontario to stop a Liberal majority. This is how fucked the election is for me right now.

Same here. Even though I've traditionally been conservative, I want to see Harper gone. On the other hand, I don't want my government wasting a single cent on anything related to marijuana. Ever.
 

Dr.Acula

Banned
Said 17% pop. vote for Tories in Atl. Canada right now, compared to 28% in the 80s when the Tories were reduced to 2 seats nation-wide.

Historical beating out East.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Lol Mansbridge

I love the CBC as much as anyone, but they have to be the most blatantly left media source in the country.

I haven't been paying attention but I know he was accused of CPC bias with softball questions for Harper last election. What did he do today?
 
Say I have a question guys. Canada has a parliamentary system, right? Why didn't NDP and Liberals form coalition to stop Harper? I know they tried in 2008 but how come they failed?

because in all coalitions all over the world, the lesser party becomes the loser while the bigger party gets all the cred

you don't want to be that loser party that latches onto a bigger party then end up suffering even more the next time
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Say I have a question guys. Canada has a parliamentary system, right? Why didn't NDP and Liberals form coalition to stop Harper? I know they tried in 2008 but how come they failed?
Dick waving contest. It's only going to get worse now, as we move to a 2 party system since the NDP are as good as dead. Or at least as irrelevant as Elizabeth May.
 
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