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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Tiktaalik

Member
Even with a perfect split the CPC would need 35%+ of the vote to get a majority. A CPC minority was the most likely outcome from the beginning, though it's also still most likely that Mulcair and Trudeau will bring it down on the Throne Speech and replace it with an NDP/LPC accord/coalition.

I think this is a very risky assumption to make. In a scenario where the Conservatives once again win a plurality of seats we really have no idea what could happen. Either Mulcair or Trudeau could resign for example, and who would take their place? The parties could go in any direction.

A coalition government is one of many possible election outcomes, but voters shouldn't be using the possible outcome of a coalition to put their mind at ease that they can vote for any opposition party with the inevitable result being that of kicking Harper out of office.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
historically, Liberals have produced great Prime Ministers and made good progressive advancements. Why try for Brand C when we can go back to a trusted brand that produced good Prime Ministers?

Because he's not talking about voting NDP for the government or Prime Minister but because of PR?
 
Because he's not talking about voting NDP for the government or Prime Minister but because of PR?
if the NDP wins a majority, they will never put PR on the table. The will become the new establishment party just like the others who's main goal is to cling to power, like any party

I'm a skeptic when it comes to PR promises if a party wins a Majority with the current system
 

Azih

Member
if the NDP wins a majority, they will never put PR on the table. The will become the new establishment party just like the others who's main goal is to cling to power, like any party

I'm a skeptic when it comes to PR promises if a party wins a Majority with the current system

Maybe. But one thing unique is that the NDP hasn't promised to 'look at' the issue or 'study the issue' or any of that nonsense that is used by parties to bury a policy file. They've said the issue has been looked at and studied to death. They're not going to do that. They'll just implement a PR system and they know which one it is. MMP.

This is far stronger and far more concrete than any promise in the past and far stronger than what the Liberals have said. And Craig Scott the NDP guy who's pushing this is very well placed in the NDP hierarchy to keep the NDP honest as are NDP supporters (who are traditionally more activist at the grassroots than Liberal supporters)

The other thing is that in a minority situation if the NDP is in the far stronger position it'll be far more easy for them to pick up enough Liberal/Green votes to implement their plan. If the Liberals are the stronger party then, the inner brain trust of Justin Trudeau which is not PR friendly at all, would have a far freer hand in setting PR up to fail.

Look I'm pretty left wing, loved Jack Layton, am a paid up member of the NDP etc etc. But I wasn't born in Canada and don't have any of the weird family loyalties that born Canadians seem to have. I liked McGuinty before he went corrupt and think his first term performance was amazing. I supported Wynne before she started talking about privatising Hydro etc etc. But PR is far more important than any other issue. And the NDP and the Greens have strong policy planks on this and the NDP is actually in a position to do something about it.
 
The Conservatives going after
Pierre
Trudeau in their latest press release:

COEnRkOWIAAKsHG.jpg
 

Azih

Member
+ there is the Devil You Know vs the Devil You Don't factor

Yeah and the Devil I know doesn't like PR.

Seriously moments for real electoral reform don't come often. And PR will stop Canada's slow ugly slide towards a two party + exaggerated regional parties state.
 
Yeah and the Devil I know doesn't like PR.

Seriously moments for real electoral reform don't come often. And PR will stop Canada's slow ugly slide towards a two party + exaggerated regional parties state.
NDP wants to apply bill 101 to Federal institutions in Quebec, is a big no no for me.

Pierre Trudeau made Canada officially bilingual, lets keep Federal institutions bilingual without exception
 

Azih

Member
NDP wants to apply bill 101 to Federal institutions in Quebec, is a big no no for me.

Pierre Trudeau made Canada officially bilingual, lets keep Federal institutions bilingual without exception
Which has absolutely nothing to do with anything I've said. You should be able to vote for the PCs or the Greens if you want and have that matter. That's how you make Canadian democracy healthy again.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
What are these people living in a frozen wasteland supposed to do to support themselves? Yes we have a lot of open space but its not used for good reason.
It's not used because we don't have enough people to use it. And there is a huge amount of unfrozen space that isn't being used. Manitoba only has one large city (Winnipeg). The second largest city only has 46k people. A place like that is perfect for migrants.
Does anyone actually read mailers? When I get them they go straight into the trash.
I didn't know they were a regular thing. My mom showed me the infamous Lawrence Toet one and that gave a good laugh. I guess she trashes the rest.

Incredible. The Conservative party is just pathetic. There is zero reason to mention Iran as they have nothing to do with what happened this week and the guy wearing the shirt. All they have done is put their ignorance and prejudice on full display, once again. I hope that party collapses.
Fingers crossed that the final weeks/days of the campaign see either the Libs or NDP breaking out as that kind of voter (which I consider myself part of) massively supports whoever has the best chance to form government instead of dividing the votes between two parties.

It would make sense for this to happen if their party preference takes a backseat to the desire for change. If such were your motivation, you'd make an eleventh-hour decision based on who's ahead.
I agree but I really want NDP. However, in the end, I will do what needs to be done to remove the Conservatives.
historically, Liberals have produced great Prime Ministers and made good progressive advancements. Why try for Brand C when we can go back to a trusted brand that produced good Prime Ministers?
In general, I don't think that this is a very good reason to not vote for other parties. Imagine if no one would give you a job because you had no experience?
Maybe. But one thing unique is that the NDP hasn't promised to 'look at' the issue or 'study the issue' or any of that nonsense that is used by parties to bury a policy file. They've said the issue has been looked at and studied to death. They're not going to do that. They'll just implement a PR system and they know which one it is. MMP.

This is far stronger and far more concrete than any promise in the past and far stronger than what the Liberals have said. And Craig Scott the NDP guy who's pushing this is very well placed in the NDP hierarchy to keep the NDP honest as are NDP supporters (who are traditionally more activist at the grassroots than Liberal supporters).
I agree. This is the biggest thing for me because I want to vote for the Green party. If the NDP wins and implements this, it will be interesting to see what types of parties pop up. I'm kind of afraid that we might get our own UKIP. I think it will be worth it though.
 

maharg

idspispopd
+ there is the Devil You Know vs the Devil You Don't factor

I've had more than enough of the devils I know, thanks. The Liberals and the Conservatives have both done more than their share to dismantle things I value about this country over the last 30 years and I'm tired of it. Time to give a new devil a chance.
 
today both Trudeau and Mulcair said that they are ready to put partisanship aside and aid the refugees

Mayor Johhn Tory and Mayor Denis Coderre both said that they are willing take in refugees

Premier Couillard said he is ready take in over a 1000 refugees



but Harper............ Harper.... in town halls today starts talking about............. Iran.
Iran?
 

Walpurgis

Banned
today both Trudeau and Mulcair said that they got to put partisanship aside and aid the refugees

Mayor Johhn Tory and Mayor Denis Coderre both said that they are willing take in refugees

Premier Couillard said he is ready take in over a 1000 refugees



but Harper............ Harper.... in town halls today starts talking about............. Iran.
Iran?
LMAO
 

Azih

Member
Iran and Pierre Trudeau. Something tells me the Cons are desperate to hold on to their very core. Internal party polling must be pretty bad.
 

SRG01

Member
Iran and Pierre Trudeau. Something tells me the Cons are desperate to hold on to their very core. Internal party polling must be pretty bad.

I think pretty bad is an understatement. There's widespread discontent for the CPC, moreso than reflected in the polls. I mean, we have projections like Oliver -- a prominent cabinet minister -- most likely losing his seat, amongst other very telling signs.

The only positive sign I've seen for Harper and the CPC in the past few weeks is the Wild Rose win in the Alberta byelection last night. They actually started chanting "Harper! Harper!" at one point...
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Iran and Pierre Trudeau. Something tells me the Cons are desperate to hold on to their very core. Internal party polling must be pretty bad.

Do Conservatives not like Trudeau? I always got the sense that everyone liked him, everyone who likes this country at least.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Srs?

Especially out west they fucking hate him.
Pierre Trudeau was hated in Alberta for the National Energy Program.
Going off of my exposure to Conservatives, he is literally the devil. I dont know many Conservatives though.
I don't know any Conservative people or talk politics with anyone really so I didn't know that. I find that really shocking, to be honest. To my knowledge, he basically made this country what it is today. I assumed that even nationalists on the right would appreciate that.
 
I don't know any Conservative people or talk politics with anyone really so I didn't know that. I find that really shocking, to be honest. To my knowledge, he basically made this country what it is today. I assumed that even nationalists on the right would appreciate that.

Pierre Trudeau is liked in Ontario...and that's about it. Maybe Atlantic Canada too. Quebec didn't like him because he did the constitution without them (and the whole FLQ Crisis stuff), and the west...well:

Basically Trudeau's National Energy Plan (NEP) forced the western provinces to sell their oil at below-market prices to prop up Ontario's manufacturing sector, when in reality they should have been making tonnes of money selling it around the world, and Ontario's manufacturing sector should have collapsed. Basically he tried to micromanage the economy, and it caused the collapse of the Liberal vote west of Winnipeg for the past 40 years. All they win now are a few handful of seats where there are older, popular incumbents.

Trudeau set the western provinces back a generation in terms of resource revenue and the older generation still remembers, basically. He was one of the main reasons the Reform movement started, as people started to realize that Ontario was sacrificing the west for its own protection, so why should the west continue with the traditional parties of the east? That's basically why the Reform and NDP movements existed: western populism.

The Harper government is basically the west getting back at the east for the Liberal years, focusing mostly on stuff that benefits resource production.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
How is Iran in any way a threat to Canada?

Harper is trying way too hard in imitating the Republicans down south.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Pierre Trudeau is liked in Ontario...and that's about it. Maybe Atlantic Canada too. Quebec didn't like him because he did the constitution without them (and the whole FLQ Crisis stuff), and the west...well:

Basically Trudeau's National Energy Plan (NEP) forced the western provinces to sell their oil at below-market prices to prop up Ontario's manufacturing sector, when in reality they should have been making tonnes of money selling it around the world, and Ontario's manufacturing sector should have collapsed. Basically he tried to micromanage the economy, and it caused the collapse of the Liberal vote west of Winnipeg for the past 40 years. All they win now are a few handful of seats where there are older, popular incumbents.

Trudeau set the western provinces back a generation in terms of resource revenue and the older generation still remembers, basically. He was one of the main reasons the Reform movement started, as people started to realize that Ontario was sacrificing the west for its own protection, so why should the west continue with the traditional parties of the east? That's basically why the Reform and NDP movements existed: western populism.

The Harper government is basically the west getting back at the east for the Liberal years, focusing mostly on stuff that benefits resource production.
I guess I can understand that. I do think that was the right call though. The point of being in a country together is to help each other.
Yes, I did.
Patrick-Star-spongebob-squarepants-23418165-500-359.gif
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Pierre Trudeau is liked in Ontario...and that's about it. Maybe Atlantic Canada too. Quebec didn't like him because he did the constitution without them (and the whole FLQ Crisis stuff), and the west...well:

Basically Trudeau's National Energy Plan (NEP) forced the western provinces to sell their oil at below-market prices to prop up Ontario's manufacturing sector, when in reality they should have been making tonnes of money selling it around the world, and Ontario's manufacturing sector should have collapsed. Basically he tried to micromanage the economy, and it caused the collapse of the Liberal vote west of Winnipeg for the past 40 years. All they win now are a few handful of seats where there are older, popular incumbents.

Trudeau set the western provinces back a generation in terms of resource revenue and the older generation still remembers, basically. He was one of the main reasons the Reform movement started, as people started to realize that Ontario was sacrificing the west for its own protection, so why should the west continue with the traditional parties of the east? That's basically why the Reform and NDP movements existed: western populism.


The Harper government is basically the west getting back at the east for the Liberal years, focusing mostly on stuff that benefits resource production.


Good post.

Growing up in BC I can confirm that the older generation here doesn't like him much either. The BC public largely sided with Alberta in those NEP disputes.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Do Conservatives not like Trudeau? I always got the sense that everyone liked him, everyone who likes this country at least.

...

...

...

Like, I don't even know what to do with this. Not only do many conservatives not like Trudeau, many non-conservatives don't like him either. His name is basically a bad word in half of this country.
 

super6646

Banned
...

...

...

Like, I don't even know what to do with this. Not only do many conservatives not like Trudeau, many non-conservatives don't like him either. His name is basically a bad word in half of this country.

Yup, anything west of Manitoba, and the population thinks Pierre should have been hung for crime's against humanity (you know I am greatly exaggerating, but many people in Western Canada hated him). This goes especially for Calgarian's, he all but destroyed our city's economy. But I still don't think of him as a bad PM, and he's certainly better than Stephen Harper (who's party has now also destroyed our economy),
 

sikkinixx

Member
Good post.

Growing up in BC I can confirm that the older generation here doesn't like him much either. The BC public largely sided with Alberta in those NEP disputes.

I find that odd. I found the sentiment around him pretty neutral or positive growing up in Vancouver.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
I find that odd. I found the sentiment around him pretty neutral or positive growing up in Vancouver.

Maybe it depends on whether you lived in the Valley or not? The Valley is more conservative leaning to begin with, so the narrative being forwarded by the Reform Party of Pierre Trudeau as this bad guy that screwed over the West would have caught on a lot stronger.
 

Silexx

Member
Slightly off-topic, but I think all political candidates are going to be banned from the Rogers Center after tonight.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
It seems that whatever Anon planned on leaking this Monday has been delayed because John Baird's dad is dead. They say they have something "smaller" planned for Tuesday and will drop the big one sometime this month.
Slightly off-topic, but I think all political candidates are going to be banned from the Rogers Center after tonight.
What happened?
BWAHAHA WAT?

Whatevs, he's a hero to me. :)
 

Silexx

Member
What happened?


Game is not over yet, but Jays are getting trounced right now and Justin Trudeau is in attendance. This is after Harper and Muclair attended a game and Jays got beat there too, afterwards folk were saying that the candidates' presence jinxed the team.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Game is not over yet, but Jays are getting trounced right now and Justin Trudeau is in attendance. This is after Harper and Muclair attended a game and Jays got beat there too, afterwards folk were saying that the candidates' presence jinxed the team.

Harper went to a Jays game and they lost. Mulcair went to a Jays game and they lost. Trudeau went to tonight's Jays game and they're currently losing.

Sounds like these Jays suck now. :p
 

Fou-Lu

Member
Interestingly I am in BC and my parents and grandparents all basically worship/worshipped Pierre Trudeau. Though I think that might have something to with the fact that we are related to him.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Sure, they can get some small amount of credit for accepting Iraqi refugees. I'd think that doing things like circulating this mailer:

COAsjJnUEAEyPKd.jpg

Weirdly "Health care is a human right; We should work towards giving ALL Canadians (regardless of how they became Canadians) better dental, vision, and drug benefits" is not an option here. Like, we're not talking about committing to cold hard cash, we're talking about as a basic theoretical principle, and they set it up that your only choice should be between "Canadians should be screwed over" or "Refugees Who Are Not Canadians And By The Way Even If We Let Them In We Shouldn't Pretend They're Canadians should be screwed over". Nothing about that flyer displays a positive idea for making the country better, just invites people to direct their angry outwardly.

This is like in America when people are like "BURGER FLIPPERS want $15 an hour?!?!?! I work 60 hours a week as a paramedic/soldier/vlogger/door-to-door oatmeal and I only get $9 an hour!!!!" as if the problem is burger flippers making too much, not that it's inhumane that anyone can work full time and not make enough to even live in a gutter?
 

Newt

Member
That moment when you realize that after your move, Calgary Southwest in your riding. Hello Harper overlord.
 

lacinius

Member
Another way to tell the NEP story is to actually start back in 1961 with Diefenbaker's National Oil Policy. With that policy everything east of the Ottawa Valley would use imported world price oil, and everything west of the valley would use oil from Alberta. This resulted in everyone west paying $1 to $1.50 more above the world price for Alberta oil... keep in mind most of the oil companies at the time in Alberta were foreign owned.

So from 1961 to about 1973 everyone west paid billions of dollars more for Alberta oil than those east of the valley using imported world price oil, which is something that is usually forgotten. Then around 1973 the OPEC oil embargo managed to quadruple the price of oil, which resulted in Canada being put into an economic spin.

With Diefenbaker gone, Trudeau enters the picture and to try and help the economic crisis he first introduces Petro-Canada and then in 1980 the NEP, with an aim to ensure Canadian oil security, increase Canadian ownership of the oil resources, and with the greater oil prices keep more of the funds in Canada for all Canadians, while also selling Alberta oil to the rest of Canada at less than world oil prices at the time to try and help the economic crisis.

Such a plan of course did not go over very well with the foreign owned oil companies, and compound that with the severe global recession of 1981 and 1982, which had nothing to do with Trudeau or the NEP... but with the Conservatives dominating politics in Alberta at the time and for decades to come... it became easy to blame Trudeau for anything and everything, and the legend of NEP was born. Keep in mind for that recession Canada's bank of Canada rate hit 21% (how much is it today?), inflation was around 12%, and unemployment in Canada was around 12% as well.

Just a different spin I guess, which should always be expected with anything political.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Another way to tell the NEP story is to actually start back in 1961 with Diefenbaker's National Oil Policy. With that policy everything east of the Ottawa Valley would use imported world price oil, and everything west of the valley would use oil from Alberta. This resulted in everyone west paying $1 to $1.50 more above the world price for Alberta oil... keep in mind most of the oil companies at the time in Alberta were foreign owned.

So from 1961 to about 1973 everyone west paid billions of dollars more for Alberta oil than those east of the valley using imported world price oil, which is something that is usually forgotten. Then around 1973 the OPEC oil embargo managed to quadruple the price of oil, which resulted in Canada being put into an economic spin.

With Diefenbaker gone, Trudeau enters the picture and to try and help the economic crisis he first introduces Petro-Canada and then in 1980 the NEP, with an aim to ensure Canadian oil security, increase Canadian ownership of the oil resources, and with the greater oil prices keep more of the funds in Canada for all Canadians, while also selling Alberta oil to the rest of Canada at less than world oil prices at the time to try and help the economic crisis.

Such a plan of course did not go over very well with the foreign owned oil companies, and compound that with the severe global recession of 1981 and 1982, which had nothing to do with Trudeau or the NEP... but with the Conservatives dominating politics in Alberta at the time and for decades to come... it became easy to blame Trudeau for anything and everything, and the legend of NEP was born. Keep in mind for that recession Canada's bank of Canada rate hit 21% (how much is it today?), inflation was around 12%, and unemployment in Canada was around 12% as well.

Just a different spin I guess, which should always be expected with anything political.

God help you if you say any of this in a bar in Calgary.
 

maharg

idspispopd
It's a pretty sound explanation for Trudeau's actions though, as hard as Trudeau haters want to try to ignore it.

Oh definitely. The reality is Alberta was going to get screwed over one way or another by the 80s, the NEP is a ridiculously overblown boogeyman and the creation of Petro Canada almost certainly brought a huge amount of wealth directly to Canadians and Albertans.

Still, you just don't say that shit in Calgary.
 

Sakura

Member
NDP down everywhere outside of Quebec and the race is narrowing further.

Greens are eating into the NDP massively in BC and as a result Conservative support is neck and neck with NDP. Cons and Libs up slightly in BC too.

I wouldn't worry too much about polls a month+ before the election.
Polls for the 2011 election a month before hand had Liberals at about 30% and NDP at 15~20%.
Yet on election day it ended up being the reverse.
It will flip back and forth quite a bit between now and election day.

God, just vote NDP (or Green where they're in front) so we can get PR and never have to worry about this shit again.
I'm not really convinced either party would actually change the voting system. Nor that most Canadians even want a different electoral system.

Even with a perfect split the CPC would need 35%+ of the vote to get a majority. A CPC minority was the most likely outcome from the beginning, though it's also still most likely that Mulcair and Trudeau will bring it down on the Throne Speech and replace it with an NDP/LPC accord/coalition.
I... really don't think that is likely at all.
 
I'm not really convinced either party would actually change the voting system. Nor that most Canadians even want a different electoral system.

I dont think most Canadians even know what PR is. There is no doubt that it's much more democratic than FPTP and should be implemented ASAP, regardless of what most Canadians think.
 
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