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[killer rin]

Wait, what? Where are you seeing 308's estimates? Right now he's predicting 124 NDP, 117 LPC, 97 CPC, 1 Green.

Oh, in my riding. Should have proof read that

 

[Buba Big Guns]

Its up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr6HK--HH5s

That was pretty good. Better than Trudeau or Harper.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Coyne once again ripping apart the Conservatives. The whole thing is worth reading, so I'll just post one paragraph:

This is the great achievement of the Harper government. Not only has it made itself unelectable, but it has made even conservatives indifferent to its fate. It did not invest its political capital in difficult but necessary changes to national policy. It frittered it away on pointless vendettas, sideshows and gewgaws, all the while congratulating itself on its cleverness. Yet for all its aimless vote-chasing, it has managed it make itself more unpopular than if it had actually done anything worthwhile — while still being cursed as unspeakably right-wing.

 

[NetMapel]

Its up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr6HK--HH5s

Compared to the other two interviews, Mulcair seems to be the most comfortable and relaxed. I'll give him a lot of credits for that because the other two seem like they want to fight Mansbridge for even a slight challenge, haha... However, my gut feeling is he seems to be making a lot of promises that I don't know how he'll guarantee. For example, he says he will balance the budget. What if Mansbridge is right that the Spring budget from Conservatives is worse than predicted ? What if there are global forces that is pretty much outside of Canada's control that negatively impact the budget ? Mulcair seems to just went MEH at it and said Conservatives lied about numbers before and he thinks things won't get worse. How does he plan to pay for all the programs such as the $15 childcare benefit if the budget do go south ? Since it will most likely be a minority government, verything in the NDP budget must be pass the parliament, no ? How does he plan to rally supports from the other two parties ? Also talking about abolishing the senate but doesn't answer how he plans to do it. He says Canadian will give him the mandate to do so ? Maybe that is the case morally speaking, but how does he plan to get it done through all the legislatively speaking ?

 

[Buba Big Guns]

Compared to the other two interviews, Mulcair seems to be the most comfortable and relaxed. I'll give him a lot of credits for that because the other two seem like they want to fight Mansbridge for even a slight challenge, haha... However, my gut feeling is he seems to be making a lot of promises that I don't know how he'll guarantee. For example, he says he will balance the budget. What if Mansbridge is right that the Spring budget from Conservatives is worse than predicted ? What if there are global forces that is pretty much outside of Canada's control that negatively impact the budget ? Mulcair seems to just went MEH at it and said Conservatives lied about numbers before and he thinks things won't get worse. How does he plan to pay for all the programs such as the $15 childcare benefit if the budget do go south ? Since it will most likely be a minority government, verything in the NDP budget must be pass the parliament, no ? How does he plan to rally supports from the other two parties ? Also talking about abolishing the senate but doesn't answer how he plans to do it. He says Canadian will give him the mandate to do so ? Maybe that is the case morally speaking, but how does he plan to get it done through all the legislatively speaking ?

To be fair, you could say the exact same thing about the lack of specifics about Harper and Trudeau as well. These are complex topics that can't really be explained in a 20 minute interview.

For example abolishing the senate would be a long and arduous process and would probably take years to accomplish.

Mulcair is the only one that established concretely what his party stands for, which is just about as much as you can do in an interview like that.

 

[Walpurgis]

Is this data visualization of threehunderedeight's projections new? I don't remember seeing it before.

http://stephenmcmurtry.org/election_map (it's interactive)

(Conservatives only taking 5 seats in BC would be rather surprising)

Lol. I live in that tiny yellow spot in Manitoba. It looks like Winnipeg is mostly red but there are a lot of blue ridings in Manitoba, unfortunately. I'm surprised because I didn't think that those places were very populated. The amount of ridings outside of Winnipeg doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[mo60]

Coyne once again ripping apart the Conservatives. The whole thing is worth reading, so I'll just post one paragraph:

That piece is a very scathing piece on the current conservative party of Canada and their election campaign. I do think the current conservative party is to toxic, very directionless and etc. I do agree with andrew that all the conservatives care about is bribing microdemographics with campaign promises and instilling fear in people to prevent people for voting for the other choices.I have been noticing this a lot this election with the Conservatives and it does not impress me much because I find it boring and not exciting. The Liberals \and NDP are the opposite of the conservatives this election. They seem to both be running campaigns that makes people want to vote for them.I don't think the Conservatives will be able to win this election at this point with their war chest and/or buying people's votes..They need to make their campaign exciting again and to energize people to vote for them in order to win this election, but I don't think they will be able to do that anymore.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Compared to the other two interviews, Mulcair seems to be the most comfortable and relaxed. I'll give him a lot of credits for that because the other two seem like they want to fight Mansbridge for even a slight challenge, haha... However, my gut feeling is he seems to be making a lot of promises that I don't know how he'll guarantee. For example, he says he will balance the budget. What if Mansbridge is right that the Spring budget from Conservatives is worse than predicted ? What if there are global forces that is pretty much outside of Canada's control that negatively impact the budget ? Mulcair seems to just went MEH at it and said Conservatives lied about numbers before and he thinks things won't get worse. How does he plan to pay for all the programs such as the $15 childcare benefit if the budget do go south ? Since it will most likely be a minority government, verything in the NDP budget must be pass the parliament, no ? How does he plan to rally supports from the other two parties ? Also talking about abolishing the senate but doesn't answer how he plans to do it. He says Canadian will give him the mandate to do so ? Maybe that is the case morally speaking, but how does he plan to get it done through all the legislatively speaking ?

I just finished watching the interview myself. He did seem comfortable, and I think he expressed himself well.

On the budget issues I can't help but notice how often he says "..our first budget..." This makes me think that maybe the reason he's so comfortable in predicting a balanced budget despite all his spending promises his government would take an incrementalist approach and bring things in slowly over time. 15 dollar a day care for example would be an example of a promise that would have to be negotiated with the provinces and so may not appear in the first budget.

I think on the senate issue it's not about some elaborate plan he has, he hasn't found some loophole in the charter or anything, but rather that he's stated his objective is to get rid of the senate and he's going to keep talking with the provinces about it and will try to bring more and more people to his side of the issue over time. It's incredibly difficult to convince people to do anything and sometimes it just takes time and herculean effort.

I think the weakest part of the interview was on the Clarity Act as the way he refused to say 50% +1 was classic, professional politician nonsense. He should have talked about how number is not as important as the question. When polled using simple, clear questions, the support for Quebec independence drops significantly.

 

[RevoDS]

Compared to the other two interviews, Mulcair seems to be the most comfortable and relaxed. I'll give him a lot of credits for that because the other two seem like they want to fight Mansbridge for even a slight challenge, haha... However, my gut feeling is he seems to be making a lot of promises that I don't know how he'll guarantee. For example, he says he will balance the budget. What if Mansbridge is right that the Spring budget from Conservatives is worse than predicted ? What if there are global forces that is pretty much outside of Canada's control that negatively impact the budget ? Mulcair seems to just went MEH at it and said Conservatives lied about numbers before and he thinks things won't get worse. How does he plan to pay for all the programs such as the $15 childcare benefit if the budget do go south ? Since it will most likely be a minority government, verything in the NDP budget must be pass the parliament, no ? How does he plan to rally supports from the other two parties ? Also talking about abolishing the senate but doesn't answer how he plans to do it. He says Canadian will give him the mandate to do so ? Maybe that is the case morally speaking, but how does he plan to get it done through all the legislatively speaking ?

I mostly agree, Mulcair seemed by far the most comfortable during the interview, and he didn't seem to avoid answering certain questions nearly as much as Trudeau did. As a result, he appeared more honest and transparent.

There is indeed some inconsistency in what he's saying, however, for example his promise of a 1% tax rate drop immediately after forming government doesn't fit with his promise of a balanced budget in the first year unless he enables other increases to offset the revenue loss or decrease spending accordingly.

I don't think you can blame him about the global forces thing. The truth is, as a small economy, Canada doesn't have much control about it; none of the leaders know what they'd do in a crisis because every crisis is different and may require a different response. Plus, talking about a potential crisis isn't appealing to any political leader because even acknowledging the possibility makes them look weak, helpless and unprepared (which is unfair, but it is the case nevertheless)

That said, I have to say kudos to Mansbridge and his research team for his Senate question. I'm a bit disappointed that Mulcair's answer was unsatisfactory, but he brought up a great potential issue with the NDP plan in that they're voluntarily antagonizing the senate and there's a very real risk that it'll backfire on them policy-wise. Of course, doing that would simply add fuel to the fire and accelerate its demise, but still, it's a very interesting point Mansbridge brought up

 

[maharg]

So now I guess it's the Liberals' turn to play hardball on debate attendance:

I'm kind of confused by this. Haven't we been through this already? The Munk debate was supposed to be bilingual after Mulcair pushed on it. Did they go back on that?

And while charging for in-person presence at the debate is crass, if it's broadcast I don't really have a huge problem with it. Charge or not, only people with a lot of privilege or luck can attend a national debate to begin with.

 

[CitizenVectron]

I have a really hard time believing that BC projection. Or the Saskatchewan one for that matter.

Keep in mind that in that Sask projection, that's only 5 seats for the NDP, but 8 for the CPC (and 1 Liberal).

Realistically I would only expect 4 for the NDP in SK though. But that large orange swath in the north is a single riding.

 

[Popstar]

Lol. I live in that tiny yellow spot in Manitoba. It looks like Winnipeg is mostly red but there are a lot of blue ridings in Manitoba, unfortunately. I'm surprised because I didn't think that those places were very populated. The amount of ridings outside of Winnipeg doesn't make any sense to me.

Isn't just under half the population of Manitoba rural? An equal number of rural seats and urban (Winnipeg) seats seems roughly correct.

EDIT: Just checked and its eight Winnipeg and six large rural ridings which matches the population split.

 

[mo60]

Looks like another nanos nightly poll was just released . The liberals are increasing their lead on the NDP while the Conservatives are stuck at 26%.

Nanos is the only one that is still showing the LPC>NDP which I find really odd.

Link to the article taking about the recent nightly poll
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

 

[CitizenVectron]

Looks like another nanos nightly poll was just released . The liberals are increasing their lead on the NDP while the Conservatives are stuck at 26%.

Nanos is the only one that is still showing the LPC>NDP which I find really odd.

Link to the article taking about the recent nightly poll
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

Nanos is also the only one with data from the last few days. So either they are showing a trend which will soon be revealed in other polls, or they are outliers. Either is plausible.

EDIT - Also keep in mind the 2 days are within the margin of error of each other, so realistically the NDP or Liberals could be ahead. Basically it's a statistical tie in that poll.

 

[Evo Shandor]

That said, I have to say kudos to Mansbridge and his research team for his Senate question. I'm a bit disappointed that Mulcair's answer was unsatisfactory, but he brought up a great potential issue with the NDP plan in that they're voluntarily antagonizing the senate and there's a very real risk that it'll backfire on them policy-wise. Of course, doing that would simply add fuel to the fire and accelerate its demise, but still, it's a very interesting point Mansbridge brought up

I completely agree with this criticism of Mulcair's plan. However, I think the Senate would be very stupid to become obstructionist. Mulcair can simply say then to the people 'See? The Senate doesn't work!' This seems to be his plan, but it is a valid criticism as it can possibly delay the passage of legislation he is wanting to introduce and mar his claim that he will do so as quickly as possible. The priority should be helping people with social programs and not immediately taking the Senate on, over what seems to me like a very personal grudge Mulcair has against the institution.

 

[Face it Tiger..]

the one thing that is entirely unsurprising is how blue those prairie provinces are.. and the fact they are mostly oil rich spots.

 

[Simon Belmont]

CBC poll tracker is now showing a Liberal victory in the projections. The horse race goes on!

 

[Azih]

I think the weakest part of the interview was on the Clarity Act as the way he refused to say 50% +1 was classic, professional politician nonsense. He should have talked about how number is not as important as the question. When polled using simple, clear questions, the support for Quebec independence drops significantly.

I found that part of the interview was Mulcair adamant about not saying anything that could be turned into a soundbite. He didn't shy away from agreeing with 50%+1 but refused to say the words. It was fine for me since he backed up the stance in a lot of good ways (Referencing Scotland, England, pointing out that it's playing bullshit games to refuse to set a bar at all). I'm biased of course but Mulcair had a deep grasp of the policies and sound reasoning for everything. The GST *is* regressive and the UCCB *is* clawed back for high earners. Good points there.

I now think that the 'first NDP budget' will find a lot of 'money' by withdrawing from combat/bombings in the Middle East and shifting that cash to other things. Which I am just fine with.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Looks like another nanos nightly poll was just released . The liberals are increasing their lead on the NDP while the Conservatives are stuck at 26%.

Nanos is the only one that is still showing the LPC>NDP which I find really odd.

Link to the article taking about the recent nightly poll
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

As I said a few days ago, I was able to chat with a pollster from a major company a few days ago, and he was telling us that their proprietary data was showing a marked shift towards the Liberals. I don't know yet how sustainable the shift is, since a lot of it seems to be based on disaffected Conservatives, who may have a change of heart during the last stages of the campaign, but I think we may start seeing other polls that have the LPC up.

I now think that the 'first NDP budget' will find a lot of 'money' by withdrawing from combat/bombings in the Middle East and shifting that cash to other things. Which I am just fine with.

How much do you think we're spending on combat? It's a miniscule portion of the federal budget. Savings there aren't nearly enough to fund everything else he's promising -- nor, for that matter, is defunding the Senate, which seems to be his other glib talking point. (The latter is also unconstitutional, but I'm quite sure he knows that.)

So now I guess it's the Liberals' turn to play hardball on debate attendance:

I'm kind of confused by this. Haven't we been through this already? The Munk debate was supposed to be bilingual after Mulcair pushed on it. Did they go back on that?

And while charging for in-person presence at the debate is crass, if it's broadcast I don't really have a huge problem with it. Charge or not, only people with a lot of privilege or luck can attend a national debate to begin with.

Apparently the moderator they're proposing is a unilingual anglophone, hence the first complaint. Munk is now saying that they never promised a bilingual debate, just a debate with "bilingual components", so...not bilingual.

As for the second point, I saw somewhere that they're charging $100 a ticket. That seems a little exorbitant, no matter how much Munk complains about the cost of hosting a federal leaders debate.

It really is unfortunate that this may be the last English debate we have. May deserves to be there, regardless of what Harper and Mulcair may say.

 

[Azih]

How much do you think we're spending on combat? It's a miniscule portion of the federal budget. Savings there aren't nearly enough to fund everything else he's promising -- nor, for that matter, is defunding the Senate, which seems to be his other glib talking point. (The latter is also unconstitutional, but I'm quite sure he knows that.)

I don't think it's negligible as bombs and boots on the ground are expensive but I'm just saying that's probably going to be a part of their 'concrete' 'costed' platform for a balanced budget (which I'll reserve judgement on until I see it).

It really is unfortunate that this may be the last English debate we have. May deserves to be there, regardless of what Harper and Mulcair may say.

Agreed.

 

[LordOfChaos]

I'm not sure if this is old news, but did you guys see the strategic voting page?

http://www.strategicvoting.ca/districts.html

 

[Tiktaalik]

A rare youth oriented promise appears!

NDP Would Create More Than 40,000 Youth Jobs


WINNIPEG — NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is promising to create more than 40,000 youth jobs, paid internships and co-op placements over four years.

He says an NDP government would work with the private sector and NGOs and provide up to $100 million a year for the program, which aims at cutting the youth unemployment rate of 13.1 per cent.

The plan would create apprenticeship spaces through federal infrastructure projects, in federally regulated airports or port authorities.

All federal infrastructure projects greater than $10 million would have to hire apprentices.

The federal government would also provide $5 million a year in grants so that municipalities can create 1,250 apprenticeships.

The program also calls for a crackdown on unpaid internships.

 

[gutter_trash]

That was pretty good. Better than Trudeau or Harper.

he still can't tell you how he will manage to realistically abolish the senate

 

[CitizenVectron]

I'm not sure if this is old news, but did you guys see the strategic voting page?

http://www.strategicvoting.ca/districts.html

That site is not that great for Saskatchewan. While it's true that the NDP are closest to the CPC in the Moose Jaw riding, they are pretty far behind and stand no real chance. However, Regina-Lewvan is basically neck and neck for the NDP and CPC, so it's an important strategic vote riding, but is not listed.

 

[Prax]

Its up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr6HK--HH5s

Yeah, as I suspected, Mulcair he comes off with an easy and open confidence unlike the other two. However, listening to the actual ideas and how it may be implemented... I feel like it doesn't add up and no clue on how he will follow through.
Trudeau's platform and plan so far makes more sense overall in how it might be implemented and costed out, but he doesn't command the same air of authority. Maybe over the next few weeks, people will see they are good and sound platforms though and hope for the best.

I wonder what's really leading the Liberal momentum though. Maybe the infrastructure infusion seems just as tasty to everyone else as it does to me. lol

 

[maharg]

I wonder what's really leading the Liberal momentum though. Maybe the infrastructure infusion seems just as tasty to everyone else as it does to me. lol

Basically Ontario. Nanos' Ontario numbers seem a little fishy to me, I have a hard time believing the NDP are down like ten points from their 2011 performance, but it's obviously not impossible.

 

[Prax]

Basically Ontario. Nanos' Ontario numbers seem a little fishy to me, I have a hard time believing the NDP are down like ten points from their 2011 performance, but it's obviously not impossible.

My first guess would have been people just switching from Cons to Libs as they watch the cons have heading for a trainwreck of incident after incident, and the Libs being the closest alternative, but it seems it's actually at the cost of the NDP?
Maybe Mulcair and Harper just seem to old for real change. Maybe it's the nice hair after all.

 

[maharg]

My first guess would have been people just switching from Cons to Libs as they watch the cons have heading for a trainwreck of incident after incident, and the Libs being the closest alternative, but it seems it's actually at the cost of the NDP?
Maybe Mulcair and Harper just seem to old for real change. Maybe it's the nice hair after all.

Well, it's coming from both. CPC is down a similar amount.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

Yeah, as I suspected, Mulcair he comes off with an easy and open confidence unlike the other two. However, listening to the actual ideas and how it may be implemented... I feel like it doesn't add up and no clue on how he will follow through.
Trudeau's platform and plan so far makes more sense overall in how it might be implemented and costed out, but he doesn't command the same air of authority. Maybe over the next few weeks, people will see they are good and sound platforms though and hope for the best.

I wonder what's really leading the Liberal momentum though. Maybe the infrastructure infusion seems just as tasty to everyone else as it does to me. lol

Their commitment to no deficits and balanced budgets is strange for... the NDP. It's one thing to say you want to match long term yearly expenses with approximately the same amount in tax revenue; that's just sensible and any party should commit to that. In a good non-recession, non-"country building" year I'd expect there's no good reason to be more than a few % below balance, and preferably a few % above.

But it's long been a central plank of "liberal" economics (that is, evidence backed real-world economics, not austerity/conservative/libertarian fantasy-land economics) to match recessions and long-term depressed economies (like we're in now) with increases in public spending -- and that's it's OK to go well into deficit to achieve that.

I guess they're just trying to avoid the "lol socialist" label of tax/spend or borrow/spend, but it comes across really hollow.

Aside from that he really does come off a lot more comfortable than Trudeau or Harper in this interview. Ignoring anything he's saying, it makes him seem a lot more Prime Ministerial.

 

[Holmes]

Ontarians aren't dumb enough to be swayed by nice hair, right? Wait, this is the same province that gave Wynne a majority.

 

[Silexx]

Well, it's coming from both. CPC is down a similar amount.

Conservative and NDP brands are heavily tainted in Ontario.

 

[gabbo]

Conservative and NDP brands are heavily tainted in Ontario.

Federally, the cons have escaped the specter of Mike Harris, given how many of Harris' hitmen were in Harper's cabinet/caucus. The NDP are still for whatever reason trying to live down Bob Rae.

 

[Holmes]

Yeah, Cons have Mike Harris, NDP has Bob Rae, and the Libs have McGuinty. Ontarian Premiers suck etc.

 

[Walpurgis]

Isn't just under half the population of Manitoba rural? An equal number of rural seats and urban (Winnipeg) seats seems roughly correct.

EDIT: Just checked and its eight Winnipeg and six large rural ridings which matches the population split.

Huh. For some reason, I thought Winnipeg had 800k. >_>

 

[Prax]

Ontarians aren't dumb enough to be swayed by nice hair, right? Wait, this is the same province that gave Wynne a majority.

I think Ontarians are kind of shallow enough to be swayed by anything looking like Harris or Rae. I don't even remember if we have a moniker for the worst under the Liberal leaders for Ontario. McGuinty Months? lol
Wynne hasn't really done anything I find too objectionable, so I kind of don't know what's been going on provincially except the sex-ed stuff.

My main thoughts on the conservative wins over the last two elections were just.. Ontario "punishing" Liberals for the scandals, but we all really know they wanted them back in power and I guess now is prime time to bring them back.

 

[maharg]

Their commitment to no deficits and balanced budgets is strange for... the NDP. It's one thing to say you want to match long term yearly expenses with approximately the same amount in tax revenue; that's just sensible and any party should commit to that. In a good non-recession, non-"country building" year I'd expect there's no good reason to be more than a few % below balance, and preferably a few % above.

But it's long been a central plank of "liberal" economics (that is, evidence backed real-world economics, not austerity/conservative/libertarian fantasy-land economics) to match recessions and long-term depressed economies (like we're in now) with increases in public spending -- and that's it's OK to go well into deficit to achieve that.

I guess they're just trying to avoid the "lol socialist" label of tax/spend or borrow/spend, but it comes across really hollow.

Aside from that he really does come off a lot more comfortable than Trudeau or Harper in this interview. Ignoring anything he's saying, it makes him seem a lot more Prime Ministerial.

I'm really confused why people are so surprised by this. The NDP has, aside from when trying to score political points, been largely anti-deficit for a very long time now. They proudly wear the fact that their provincial governments have tended to balance budgets. If the situation weren't quite so utterly dire in Alberta, the Alberta NDP would probably also be aiming for a balanced budget.

Federally, the cons have escaped the specter of Mike Harris, given how many of Harris' hitmen were in Harper's cabinet/caucus. The NDP are still for whatever reason trying to live down Bob Rae.

And yet Bob Rae is in the Liberal caucus. :/

 

[Silexx]

Federally, the cons have escaped the specter of Mike Harris, given how many of Harris' hitmen were in Harper's cabinet/caucus. The NDP are still for whatever reason trying to live down Bob Rae.

Here's how the dynamic kinda works. It's not that everyone in Ontario hates the Conservatives and NDP, but rather if you're a left-leaning voter then you remember the Harris and the disaster he was. And on the other end, if you're a right-leaning voter then you remember Bob Rae and the disaster he was. (to clarify, the 'disaster' can be qualified as 'perceived')

So come election time, these voters have essentially two choices, vote the party they generally identify with or vote for the party that will keep out the one they hate. And thus, guess who gets to be the benefactor of the latter.

 

[Home]

My family hated Mike Harris but if you dare mention Bob Rae you are in for a 30+ minute conversation on Rae days and all that.

Which is weird as they plan on voting liberal.

 

[Walpurgis]

I don't know much about provincial politics. Could anyone tell me how the NDP has done in Manitoba?

 

[explodet]

When someone said "Rae Day", I heard "day off from school".
I should know better now that I'm older, but... *shrug*

 

[gabbo]

My family hated Mike Harris but if you dare mention Bob Rae you are in for a 30+ minute conversation on Rae days and all that.

Which is weird as they plan on voting liberal.

My parents hated Harris much more than they hated Rae Days (both working in the provincial public sector).

When someone said "Rae Day", I heard "day off from school".
I should know better now that I'm older, but... *shrug*

Exactly ,at the time, it just meant a longer march break for me.

Federally, the cons have escaped the specter of Mike Harris, given how many of Harris' hitmen were in Harper's cabinet/caucus. The NDP are still for whatever reason trying to live down Bob Rae.

Here's how the dynamic kinda works. It's not that everyone in Ontario hates the Conservatives and NDP, but rather if you're a left-leaning voter then you remember the Harris and the disaster he was. And on the other end, if you're a right-leaning voter then you remember Bob Rae and the disaster he was. (to clarify, the 'disaster' can be qualified as 'perceived')

So come election time, these voters have essentially two choices, vote the party they generally identify with or vote for the party that will keep out the one they hate. And thus, guess who gets to be the benefactor of the latter.

Which is why I said weird. Harris' team is still very much involved in politics at both levels (or... were until everyone jumped off the HMCS HarpoCon), whereas Rae didn't drag that hate with him to the Liberals so much

 

[lacinius]

I'm really confused why people are so surprised by this. The NDP has, aside from when trying to score political points, been largely anti-deficit for a very long time now. They proudly wear the fact that their provincial governments have tended to balance budgets.

Not in Manitoba they don't.

 

[whitehawk]

Is this data visualization of threehunderedeight's projections new? I don't remember seeing it before.

http://stephenmcmurtry.org/election_map (it's interactive)

(Conservatives only taking 5 seats in BC would be rather surprising)

Only 2 NDP seats in Toronto? That doesn't seem right.

 

[Holmes]

Only 2 NDP seats in Toronto? That doesn't seem right.

Nanos has been pumping out daily polls now showing the NDP like more than 10% lower in Ontario than their 2011 result, which is questionable.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Apart from Maharg's regular complaints about Nanos, I don't recall all this poll questioning from Dippers when it showed the NDP ahead. Crazy how all the pollsters' methods have become suspect right at the exact same time as the Liberals are pulling ahead.

I don't know much about provincial politics. Could anyone tell me how the NDP has done in Manitoba?

From June: Premier Greg Selinger’s approval rating stays in basement: Angus Reid

Doer was popular enough that Harper appointed him Ambassador to the United States for fear that he'd run federally for the Liberals or NDP, but their current leader's popularity is abysmal.

EDIT: I knew that I'd seen a more recent poll than June. From last week: "Manitoba NDP Premier Greg Selinger remains the least popular premier in Canada, with an approval rating of just 22 per cent."

 

[maharg]

Apart from Maharg's regular complaints about Nanos, I don't recall all this poll questioning from Dippers when it showed the NDP ahead. Crazy how all the pollsters' methods have become suspect right at the exact same time as the Liberals are pulling ahead.

Let's be fair, there's literally one day of polling where Nanos put out a useful poll and the NDP were ahead. Not like there was a lot of time for anyone to gripe about it.

So far Nanos' movements for the NDP and Liberals have been pretty well within the margin of error. With a daily tracking poll we'll really need another few days, or much bigger movements, to get a good feel for how things are really trending.

 

[Tiktaalik]

he still can't tell you how he will manage to realistically abolish the senate

Tom Mulcair is not hiding one little constitutional trick he discovered to abolish the Senate. The means of abolishing the Senate remains the same as it always has been, which is unanimous agreement of the provinces. This would be extraordinarily difficult, but it remains NDP policy to strive for this goal.

In contrast Trudeau and Harper have essentially decided that it is too hard to change or abolish the Senate and they will not bother trying.

At the moment the NDP are stating that they will not appoint senators. The NDP will use this fact, plus this election mandate from the Canadian public as leverage when discussing the issue with the Provinces. Perhaps at some point the Supreme Court will force the NDP to appoint senators, but until that happens it seems like a viable approach to try.

The NDP platform is very ambitious. It may well be that negotiations with the provinces will utterly fail and like Harper, Mulcair will have to give in and give up on the idea. However I think that it’s better to try to implement a policy and fail then to not try at all.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Let's be fair, there's literally one day of polling where Nanos put out a useful poll and the NDP were ahead. Not like there was a lot of time for anyone to gripe about it.

So far Nanos' movements for the NDP and Liberals have been pretty well within the margin of error. With a daily tracking poll we'll really need another few days, or much bigger movements, to get a good feel for how things are really trending.

Technically, it's now two days. But no, absolutely, it's within the margin of error, and as I said on the last page, there's no way to tell if it's sustainable. But if you look back at the beginning of this thread and in the previous Canadian PoliGAF thread, there was all kinds of triumphalism about how an NDP victory was practically a sure thing now that they had momentum at their backs. Then we get a clear trend for a different party -- which has been going back to the beginning of last week -- and suddenly all those people who thought polls were infallible are questioning how they could possibly be getting those results.

And for Ontario specifically, I'll just leave this here:

If there is one part of the country that seems to be behind the Liberals' improving national numbers, it is Ontario. And this is not just from the Nanos polls. Though the last three rolling polls (which overlap in terms of the days they were in the field) have put the Liberals between 38 and 43 per cent in the province, the most recent Ipsos and Léger surveys have the party at 36 or 37 per cent. This marks a significant divergence from the close three-way race that was reigning in the province for much of August.

 

[Walpurgis]

From June: Premier Greg Selinger’s approval rating stays in basement: Angus Reid

Doer was popular enough that Harper appointed him Ambassador to the United States for fear that he'd run federally for the Liberals or NDP, but their current leader's popularity is abysmal.

EDIT: I knew that I'd seen a more recent poll than June. From last week: "Manitoba NDP Premier Greg Selinger remains the least popular premier in Canada, with an approval rating of just 22 per cent."

ayyyyy lmao

Winnipeg is in a bit of a crisis today. Early this morning, a whole bunch of transit routes were cancelled without any prior warning to...anyone really. Even the city councilors didn't know about it. Apparently, they don't have enough funding to repair broken buses or something. People are pissed off. I wonder if this idiocy is his doing. I like NDP but damn.

 

[maharg]

And for Ontario specifically, I'll just leave this here:

Sure, but then you should probably finish the thought.

One point of contention between the latest set of polls, though, concerns the position of the NDP in Ontario. Ipsos and Léger have the party in a competitive position, whereas Nanos has the NDP down to just 18 or 20 per cent in the province. This, more than anything else, is enough to drive the New Democrats behind the Liberals in the national count.

Also, I think you should temper your perception of triumphalism by considering the lens you see it through. There's been plenty of high expectations among both liberal and ndp supporters in these threads, and far far far more "nothing will ever change ever again ((((" (or in a few rare cases "))))") than either combined, especially in the pre-election thread.