Awful. We need a poll with CPC at 5%.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
- Status
Awful. We need a poll with CPC at 5%.
matthewwhatever
Member
Meanwhile, Forum continues to get results that no one else does:
NDP 36
LPC 29
CPC 28
Meanwhile, Mainstreet just came out with a GTA poll that probably seems to confirm that the Liberal lead in Ontario is built around a huge Toronto-area lead. Again, this is GTA-only.
LPC 43
CPC 28
NDP 27
EDIT: Looking at Nanos' regional breakdowns, it seems like the Conservative bump is being buoyed entirely by the Prairies, where they've gone up 10 points in the last two days (yay smaller sample sizes!).
And here's more about the guy the Conservatives are bringing in to help shore up their campaign:
NDP 36
LPC 29
CPC 28
Meanwhile, Mainstreet just came out with a GTA poll that probably seems to confirm that the Liberal lead in Ontario is built around a huge Toronto-area lead. Again, this is GTA-only.
LPC 43
CPC 28
NDP 27
EDIT: Looking at Nanos' regional breakdowns, it seems like the Conservative bump is being buoyed entirely by the Prairies, where they've gone up 10 points in the last two days (yay smaller sample sizes!).
And here's more about the guy the Conservatives are bringing in to help shore up their campaign:
To expand on what Maharg said, now that the NDP is in actual striking distance of forming government the move to the center is a strategic move to make them more palatable to the general population. They can no longer just get by before the pro-labour/union party they used to brand themselves as.
Liberals are moving to the left in order to try and steal some votes from the NDP while trying to bank on their past reputation of being more 'laissez-faire' economically in order to retain the Blue Grit segment of their base.
gutter_trash
Banned
Historically, the NDP has always been the social conscience of Canada, campaigning by the Left and getting support from workers unions.
But they use to fare poorly nationally and have hit lows depending on their leader
The only way the NDP can gain more support is to absorb the Center-Left and the Center away from the Liberals.
Right now, Thomas Mulciar has pulled the NDP furthest away from the Left and more squarely into the Center. Mulcair was not always an NDP, he used to be a Centrist provincial representative.
People who think that the current NDP is "different" are in for a shock because their leader is very establishment, very controlling and rigid.
As for the Liberals, during the 90s and 2000s, they become obsessed with zero deficits and veered more Center with Chretien and Center-Right with Martin on fiscal issues.
in the past, St-Laurent, Pearson, Pierre Trudeau were more Center-Left. Justin Trudeau is trying to get the party back to the Pearson and papa Trudeau alighment of Center-Left
The nature of the Canadian system is kinda borked and there are usually only two ways for a party to find success.
1. Big tent party close enough to the center to get support from 35+% voters
2. Regional protest party
This is why the Greens get screwed.
Of those the first is the only way to win 'majority' power which is what all parties lust after. The NDP has roots as a regional protest party but is now close enough to getting more than 1/3rd of the vote that it could conceivably win maybe even a majority. Since its base is enthusiastic about maybe actually winning the NDP can afford to appeal to centrists to get it over the hump.
The Liberals have an established recent history of campaigning from the left and then ignoring that to govern from the right.
OMG this ad from Adbusters.
It's so over-the-top and ridiculous. I know it's easy to hate on Harper but even I'm thinking they're laying it on way too thick.
It's so over-the-top and ridiculous. I know it's easy to hate on Harper but even I'm thinking they're laying it on way too thick.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I for one am shocked that adbusters would manipulate the truth.
matthewwhatever
Member
Well that's...something. Adbusters really aren't too big on subtlety, are they?
They are promising 20 billion in infrastructure spending. That is going to change up the dynamic of 1/3rd municipality, 1/3rd provincial, 1/3rd federal. There's multiple instances of federal governments covering all infrastructure costs before. See the freeway that was proposed (and thankfully not built) in the 60s for Vancouver, the municipality had full federal spending, it was considered "free" for them.
The Liberals are the only group that has made a definitive and quantitative platform statement that has really proven to spur growth.
- Conversatives have a no change approach.
- NDP have a 2% small and medium business tax decrease (1% first year, 2% second year). They plan to increase corporate tax (no quantitative statement here)
Both Conservatives and NDP are planning for a balanced budget, which will mean government cuts and with an insecure private sector, there's no spending into economic growth there. Tax cuts works when the private sector is confident, it's not right now in the Canadian economy. Those small and medium business tax decreases are not going to create enough jobs to offset the lost revenue.
The Liberals have a direct plan to spur growth. Infrastructure spending is one of the best ways to spur growth in an economy. History has shown this in things like the New Deal or German's Autobahn development in the 30s to get out of the great depression.
The negative is you need to then ensure you balance your budget back on the economic upswing the infrastructure spending costs, which seems their plan by having a balanced budget in 2019.
Hasn't the NDP promised 1 cent of the gas tax to municipalities for infrastructure? That's stable long term funding.
In any case apparently less than a week to go before Mulcair's 'fully costed' platform comes out. Fun times.
Also, The Star, which has been traditionally hostile to PR has a positive article on it for a change:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/09/10/electoral-reform-back-in-the-spotlight.html
Sign up for the Fair vote thunderclap guys.
In any case apparently less than a week to go before Mulcair's 'fully costed' platform comes out. Fun times.
Also, The Star, which has been traditionally hostile to PR has a positive article on it for a change:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/09/10/electoral-reform-back-in-the-spotlight.html
Sign up for the Fair vote thunderclap guys.
We're not in a good position to balance our budget. We need to spend our way out of this non-recession.
We need large public works. Not incremental changes. A 1% gas tax fund won't be enough for the municipalities to afford those large public works (such as broadway line and surrey light rail).
We need large public works. Not incremental changes. A 1% gas tax fund won't be enough for the municipalities to afford those large public works (such as broadway line and surrey light rail).
gutter_trash
Banned
Nanos again with a daily Nanos Poll
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls
usually polling firms do weekly polls, but Nanos has gone daily and it fluctuates day to day.
Not sure how to feel about dailies, seems like overkill.
With a tight race like this, I am more interested in regional breakdowns
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls
usually polling firms do weekly polls, but Nanos has gone daily and it fluctuates day to day.
Not sure how to feel about dailies, seems like overkill.
With a tight race like this, I am more interested in regional breakdowns
No the amount of funding doesn't change how these projects are funded. It's always been that federal funds must be matched by both the province and the municipalities. I'm looking at recent projects such as Ottawa and Calgary's line and Vancouver's line. 1/3 matching setup here.
Unless I explicitly read a statement that says the Liberals would be covering the municipalities share, I'm going to assume nothing has changed in how major infrastructure projects are funded in Canada. The core problem that remains is how to fund the municipal share. That's what we had the Transit Referendum over. We always had the Federal funds available.
The article I posted previously is by former Vancouver councillor, Gordon Price, who knows what he's talking about. I'm not pulling shit out of my ass here.
20 billion is a nice, big sounding number, but this is a promise designed to sound a lot more significant than it is. There remain big roadblocks to Surrey and Vancouver being able to build its transit lines.
This isn't true at all. It hasn't always been like this and it's not always like it for every project. I just gave you a historical example of full federal funding with no municipality cost for a large transit public works in Vancouver.
I believe you are confusing Status Quo with the conservative's "Infrastructure Canada" or "Building Canada" initiative which was a 7-year program from 2007 to 2014 (I don't believe they created any new initiative since) which had this formula for federal grants.
CitizenVectron
Member
Nanos again with a daily Nanos Poll
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls
usually polling firms do weekly polls, but Nanos has gone daily and it fluctuates day to day.
Not sure how to feel about dailies, seems like overkill.
With a tight race like this, I am more interested in regional breakdowns
Instead of doing 400 people per day nationally, I would rather see them do 400 per day in a region, and rotate regions so we get the same province/region once per week. I think that would be a lot more useful and also interesting.
matthewwhatever
Member
Nanos again with a daily Nanos Poll
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls
usually polling firms do weekly polls, but Nanos has gone daily and it fluctuates day to day.
Not sure how to feel about dailies, seems like overkill.
With a tight race like this, I am more interested in regional breakdowns
I posted the regional breakdowns above. Basically, most of the Conservatives' growth in Nanos comes from jumping almost 12 points in two days in Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba. They're still dead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, and they had minimal growth in Ontario and BC.
He also isn't saying it is.
You are the one assuming, not me. You are assuming based on a Conservative infrastructure initiative that's been in place for the last 8 years, that the Liberal party wants to change.
All we have is what is presented in front of us is the statement and promise that $20bn in public transit spending from the Federal government. Part of that funding would go to getting the broadway corridor and surrey light rail done.
So the issue you have is obviously trust. I guess I don't have as much a cynical eye as you.
Well it's certainly up in the air. Full platforms are coming soon for all the parties in any case.
But don't downplay the one cent of the gas tax. One of the biggest problems cities are facing is the massive repair and maintenance backlog. It's all well and good to have a giant scissor to cut a ribbon while spending billions on shiny new capital investment but what gets forgotten is the ongoing costs of the old and new infrastructure. Boring stable long term funding is what is needed to maintain good repair and the one cent of the gas tax is exactly that. It's good policy. It's necessary policy.
Long term maintenance funding does not kick start the economy like new large public works.
Once again, one of the greatest economic recoveries of modern times, Germany with the autobahn initiative, was from massive infrastructure spending. There is a huge historical track record for infrastructure spending being a boost to an economy in recession.
Now's not the time for this. Need to spend your way out of this non-recession. When GDP growth is comfortable, that's when you look towards "good policy" in your balancing budget.
Once again, one of the greatest economic recoveries of modern times, Germany with the autobahn initiative, was from massive infrastructure spending. There is a huge historical track record for infrastructure spending being a boost to an economy in recession.
Now's not the time for this. Need to spend your way out of this non-recession. When GDP growth is comfortable, that's when you look towards "good policy" in your balancing budget.
matthewwhatever
Member
New Ekos numbers, and, well...
And the conclusion is even worse:
EDIT: In other words, as Eric Grenier points out: 3 polls today each with a different order.
Nanos: 31% LPC, 31% CPC, 30% NDP
Forum: 36% NDP, 29% LPC, 28% CPC
EKOS: 32% CPC, 30% NDP, 27% LPC
And the conclusion is even worse:
EDIT: In other words, as Eric Grenier points out: 3 polls today each with a different order.
Nanos: 31% LPC, 31% CPC, 30% NDP
Forum: 36% NDP, 29% LPC, 28% CPC
EKOS: 32% CPC, 30% NDP, 27% LPC
I can't wait for voter reform.
70% of voters don't want a Harper government. They are just split between the parties. Need ranked ballots.
1 - Green
2 - Liberals
3 - NDP
4 - Conservatives
My ranking is essentially the political spectrum. Funny that the NDP used to be 2nd there for me, but the Liberals have become more socialist then the party that was built on Democratic Socialism. There has been a political shift very recently.
I think some of you haven't seen that yet. Watch more interviews and read further into the platforms. Try not to be so distrustful based off previous political platforms and just look at the current platforms, and you'll also see that shift. The NDP have moved more centrist to appeal to certain demographics and the Liberals have moved to the left to appeal to other demographics.
Maybe you have become more centrist so this modern NDP may appeal to you, but I'm still very much a leftist and this new Liberal platform appeals to me.
70% of voters don't want a Harper government. They are just split between the parties. Need ranked ballots.
1 - Green
2 - Liberals
3 - NDP
4 - Conservatives
My ranking is essentially the political spectrum. Funny that the NDP used to be 2nd there for me, but the Liberals have become more socialist then the party that was built on Democratic Socialism. There has been a political shift very recently.
I think some of you haven't seen that yet. Watch more interviews and read further into the platforms. Try not to be so distrustful based off previous political platforms and just look at the current platforms, and you'll also see that shift. The NDP have moved more centrist to appeal to certain demographics and the Liberals have moved to the left to appeal to other demographics.
Maybe you have become more centrist so this modern NDP may appeal to you, but I'm still very much a leftist and this new Liberal platform appeals to me.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
If there's another Conservative minority and no coalition to stop it I'm going to march my ass down to parliament hill.
That's my point. The promise is designed to sound as good as possible and to get people more excited than they should be,
The NDP has made a similar (tho a bit smaller) grandiose transit funding promise. They're guilty of the same thing. It's politics.
Tabris: Spending money on repair and maintenance creates as many jobs as spending money on shiny new trains. So they're both good for the economy. Also they're *both* necessary. I don't know why you're making it an either/or.
Also if you want the Greens to thrive than the Liberal view of 'ranked ballots' would not help them at all. The Green and NDP push for PR would get the Greens the 5% of the seats (or dozen or so seats in the House of Commons) that they deserve. So the NDP is way better and more progressive and democratic on this than the Liberals BY FAR. The Liberals are getting better but Trudeau personally doesn't like PR.
Also if you want the Greens to thrive than the Liberal view of 'ranked ballots' would not help them at all. The Green and NDP push for PR would get the Greens the 5% of the seats (or dozen or so seats in the House of Commons) that they deserve. So the NDP is way better and more progressive and democratic on this than the Liberals BY FAR. The Liberals are getting better but Trudeau personally doesn't like PR.
They've put a number down though Tik.
So even if the broadway corridor and surrey light rail don't get done due to municipalities if that funding dynamic remains, there's still $20bn being invested into public transit works across the country, and $60bn in total infrastructure spending.
That's something neither the NDP or conservatives have put forward. That's a concrete number in their platform.
So even if the broadway corridor and surrey light rail don't get done due to municipalities if that funding dynamic remains, there's still $20bn being invested into public transit works across the country, and $60bn in total infrastructure spending.
That's something neither the NDP or conservatives have put forward. That's a concrete number in their platform.
matthewwhatever
Member
Hey, I'm the one who's supposed to be posting the sobering polls!
I'd really like to see some regional breakdowns on the numbers, since those don't seem to be available yet. Ekos, obviously, is one of the more reputable pollsters out there, but at the same time, if the CPC growth there is fueled entirely by a huge jump in the prairies -- where they were already winning by a lot -- it doesn't make a huge difference.
It doesn't create as many jobs though in the end.
You are looking at the immediate impact of job growth. That one construction worker is going to get a job whether repairing a track or laying a new track, yes.
But then you aren't looking at the further economic impact of new public transit infrastructure. New public transit creates development demand (new businesses and housing develop around transit hubs), lowers housing costs via densification (highrises get built around transit hubs which are cheaper then detached housing in dense cities), decreases demand on maintenance of roads which is more expensive then transit maintenance, environmental benefits (this one is obvious), etc.
You must have missed the NDP promise. On the transit side it's close to the Liberal promise, but certainly smaller.
It amounts to about $1.5 billion a year. The liberal plan is more, like $1.7 billion I think? Someone else will have to grab better numbers because I'm posting from my phone.
BigJonsson
Member
This NDP ad is hilarious, the Liberals should follow suit with one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpSLtS0Jlis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpSLtS0Jlis
EDIT - Correction on my side since I read it wrong. It's over a decade. So $2 billion a year on public transit, $6 billion a year on infrastructure spending.
They are quadrupling the national infrastructure spending average with their plan.
EDIT 2 - That $20 billion over a decade is in addition to the current spending. The current spending must be $7.5 billion if it's quadrupling. So that means total will be $2.75 billion a year.
Totally on point. Lots of funding for municipalities has been cut under the conservatives and the city budget is getting spread suuuuper thin to make up for it. In Victoria, we can't meaningfully spend on homelessness or infrastructure (our bridge was a $90 million dollar project with $0 from the province) and keep up with sewer/road/utility upgrades that are all coming up past due. This puts pressure on homes and businesses as that's mainly where our money comes from. Cash injections and funded projects are fun, but we need something stable that we can use for all the boring stuff.
CitizenVectron
Member
And repairing existing infrastructure does that. Do you think that spending $200 million on a new bridge stimulates the economy more than $200 million to repair an old one?
gutter_trash
Banned
Eggs in a same basket something i guess .
I hope Liberals continue to grow in Ontario
TheRagnCajun
Member
So what if Harper wins a minority government at 32%? That still leaves ~60% of the power with the Liberals and NDP. That's the beauty of Canada's multiple party politics.
I still support a MMP electoral system
Personally I wish some party would propose just letting large municipal areas to start leveraging directly from provincial income tax (though, as with many other things this probably involves buy-in from the provinces). I'm really tired of my city, being larger in population than two of the provinces, needing handouts from the federal or provincial government to do well supported projects within its own boundaries.
matthewwhatever
Member
It all depends how many seats each party gets. If they're all around 100 (say 120 CPC, 115 LPC, 110 NDP, 2 GPC and 1 BQ), it's anybody's guess. The best-ever third party finish was either the NDP in 1988 or the Liberals in 2011, and in both cases we had a majority government so it didn't matter.
If one party has 150+, though...I can't imagine either of the other two opposition parties would be in a position to bring them down. There might be a convenient number of MPs sick on the day they vote for the Throne Speech and the first budget.
Wasn't that proposed for Toronto a few years ago? Did they go anywhere? It absolutely makes sense, but I think it requires provinces being willing to devolve power.
Trudeau and Mulcair promising to bring in "scary, terrorist" refugees scared conservative voters back over to Harper.
No surprise there.
gutter_trash
Banned
I blame the NDP for adopting the Sherbrooke declaration and being Pro Bill 101 for Federal Institutions inside Quebec
a coalition government could have been viable but the NDP (for regional pandering purposes) has adopted a soft-nationalist approach in Quebec that makes them incompatible with the egalitarian ideology of the Liberal party
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Full list of candidate resignations and social media gaffes so far.
These are starting to add up. Are any of the riding projections taking into account missing candidates yet? For example, with no liberal candidate running in South Surrey-White Rock as of today, there's no way it's going red as projected by 308. I think they could do something interesting like using the % of likely alternate parties to simulate ridings like this with missing candidates.
These are starting to add up. Are any of the riding projections taking into account missing candidates yet? For example, with no liberal candidate running in South Surrey-White Rock as of today, there's no way it's going red as projected by 308. I think they could do something interesting like using the % of likely alternate parties to simulate ridings like this with missing candidates.
BigJonsson
Member
Depends if ppl vote for party or candidate, there will be replacement candidates
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Some of these resignations are already said to have no replacements, like the pee guy's riding.
If we get any later in the campaign I don't think the'll have time to nominate replacements.
McGuinty and David Miller combined to get the City of Toronto Act passed which is one of the major reasons why I still am not completely sour on Dalton (that and the Greenbelt. Love the Greenbelt). This is why Toronto had an additional vehicle registration tax (which Rob Ford killed) and an additional Land Transfer Tax (which is the thing keeping the city's finances healthy and allows Toronto to actually get some benefit from its crazy real estate market).
Despite what you may think. I'm a policy voter, not a party voter.
Soft nationalism has crippled separatism in a way that decades of Liberal policies have not. It's fairly obvious that the NDP in Quebec is way better for Canada than the Liberals in Quebec.
Edit: And Tabris, I'm sorry but only putting money into ongoing maintenance and repair when there's a balanced budget is an incredibly incredibly incredibly bad idea. That's what leads to crumbling bridges, roads developing massive sinkholes, and sewage and drainage problems. Especially since what you're saying is that there will be no action on the massive backlog for FOUR MORE YEARS.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked