The political romance of B.C.
British Columbians vote Conservative in one election and NDP
the next and they could mean the difference between minority rule
or a change of government,
...
Conservatives are fighting to preserve the high-water mark of 21 of 36 seats that they scored in B.C. in 2011. They are almost certain to lose some of those seats a few, perhaps, to the Liberals. I know this is a target riding of the Liberals because they did hold it from 2004 until 2008, Mr. Saxton said in an interview, adding the Liberals have a decent candidate in businessman Jonathan Wilkinson.
But, broadly speaking, the threat to most Tories is actually the New Democrats. The NDP are likely to come out with a majority of the seats in the province, said Richard Johnston, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia. The question is how big a majority. Every seat that the Conservatives retain, in what could be a swing against them, could be important.
Prof. Johnston may be overstating the case. Stephen Harpers Conservatives might continue to hold a plurality of B.C. seats on election night. But most observers predict the Tories will suffer losses in B.C an outcome that could help trim the Tories towards a minority or bolster the NDP towards government, depending on results elsewhere in Canada.
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B.C. can be divided into four political regions. There is the resource-producing economy of the Interior, a blue bastion since the days of Reform. There is Vancouver Island, divided between a more rugged and Conservative-leaning north and the more leftish capital of Victoria. There is downtown Vancouver, where the Liberals and the NDP fight it out. And there are the suburbs and exurbs of the Lower Mainland, where all three parties battle for power, with the inner suburbs trending progressive and the outer suburbs trending Conservative.
In the last election, that resulted in 21 Conservative seats, 12 NDP, two Liberals and one Green; one of the Conservatives has since become Independent.
But underlying all of this is an ethos, which permeates the political culture today just as it has since the province was created more than a century ago. David Black, a political scientist at University of Victoria, calls it the political romance that is B.C.
You see more political variety in a smaller geographical footprint than anywhere I know of in Canada, he said. There's a waywardness, a fickleness, a curiosity about politics
that moves people to take educated bets on new things.
He attributes this waywardness to the provinces historic isolation from the rest of the country, which has produced a place where people are incredibly passionate about politics, and quite indifferent to what anyone in the rest of the country is thinking.
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