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[Deleted member 126221]

These polls are fucked. That always bodes well for the CPC.

If the conservatives win again, I just dont know. The degradation of science, tech, information, innovation in this country is too much at this point. Quebec seems to not have its priorities straight.

Please point out to me why it's Quebec's fault again. As far as I know, it's one of the places where the Conservative party ISN'T leading.

 

[sikkinixx]

These polls are fucked. That always bodes well for the CPC.

If the conservatives win again, I just dont know. The degradation of science, tech, information, innovation in this country is too much at this point. Quebec seems to not have its priorities straight.

Or rural Ontario. Or rural BC. Or the nearly the entire province of Alberta.

Shit is infuriating.

 

[Ledhead]

Please point out to me why it's Quebec's fault again. As far as I know, it's one of the places where the Conservative party ISN'T leading.

Yeah...if you're angry about conservative support, I would think you would point the finger at the West

 

[Buba Big Guns]

Please point out to me why it's Quebec's fault again. As far as I know, it's one of the places where the Conservative party ISN'T leading.

An irrelevant niqab issue is enough to swing voters away from the NDP towards BQ and CPC. Niqabs apparently supercede actual policy decisions that effect peoples lives. Quebec clearly has the largest swing out of any other province regarding this 'issue'.

 

[potatohead]

Because apparently 0.001% of the population having previously met all security and identification requirements may, or may not, want to wear a niqab during a public swearing-in ceremony to become a Canadian citizen. Such a thought has rightly rustled some jimmies, and many will cling in desperation to any political party that will ensure such a nightmare scenario is prevented. This is Canada after all, where we are strong and free.

The fear-mongering over the non-issue of niqabs bothers me immensely.

Such a small number of people affected as to be insignificant, and the fact they do identify themselves at the ceremony before they enter....

It's dark days for Canada.

 

[Stet]

Yeah...if you're angry about conservative support, I would think you would point the finger at the West

Suburban Ontario.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

An irrelevant niqab issue is enough to swing voters away from the NDP towards BQ and CPC. Niqabs apparently supercede actual policy decisions that effect peoples lives.

And that's happening only in Quebec? Take another look at the polls, champ.

 

[Ledhead]

Suburban Ontario.

There as well haha

 

[Buba Big Guns]

And that's happening only in Quebec? Take another look at the polls, champ.

Lets see, oh it seems to be enough of an issue to swing 10% of voters in Quebec. Thanks for the tip though, bud.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

Lets see, oh it seems to be enough of an issue to swing 10% of voters in Quebec. Thanks for the tip though, bud.

8% for CPC in Quebec, versus 6% for Canada. Conservative are still 2nd place here, versus 1st place pretty much everywhere else.

I'll vote Bloc despite not giving a damn about this ridiculous niqab thing. Despite what the medias and some politicians tell you, this is not the only issue being decided in this election.

Can't wait for Quebec to, one day, finally get out of Canada. You guys will finally be free from the Conservative without us voting for them. The numbers should add up, huh?

 

[Buba Big Guns]

8% for CPC, 2% the Bloc, versus 6% for Canada. Conservative are still 2nd place here, versus 1st place pretty much everywhere else.

I'll vote Bloc despite not giving a damn about this ridiculous niqab thing. Despite what the medias and some politicians tell you, this is not the only issue being decided in this election.

Can't wait for Quebec to, one day, finally get out of Canada. You guys will finally be free from the Conservative without us voting for them. The numbers should add up, huh?

They do in our current system. Less seats for the LPC and NDP means more for the CPC and irrelevant parties like the BQ. Good luck with your secession plan though!

 

[Deleted member 126221]

They do in our current system. Less seats for the LPC and NDP means more for the CPC and irrelevant parties like the BQ. Good luck with your secession plan though!

So Quebec is to blame because the electoral system is bullshit and it should be our job to re-balance things as the rest of Canada massively vote for the Conservative party?

 

[Pedrito]

The niqab swing is dumb as shit but blaming Québec? Really? Without Québec, Harper would coast to a win with no opposition.

 

[Buba Big Guns]

So Quebec is to blame because the electoral system is bullshit and it should be our job to re-balance things as the rest of Canada massively vote for the Conservative party?

What? Conservatives were on the verge of winning only a handful of seats in Quebec before this whole niqab bs came up. If this issue alone was able to bring them from last place to 2nd in Quebec, then there is something wrong.

It applies to the rest of Canada too, but it seems to be quite extreme in Quebec, and probably only going to get worse after tonight.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

What? Conservatives were on the verge of winning only a handful of seats in Quebec before this whole niqab bs came up. If this issue alone was able to bring them from last place to 2nd in Quebec, then there is something wrong.

It applies to the rest of Canada too, but it seems to be quite extreme in Quebec, and probably only going to get worse after tonight.

So extreme CPC is still in 2nd place here despite being in 1st place almost everywhere else. But if Harper wins it'll exclusively be Quebec's fault for some reason.

I can't believe all this mental gymnastic to blame Quebec for everything wrong in the beautiful country of Canada. This thread has been fascinating to me, I understand better how Quebec bashing works now.


EDIT: From last place to 2nd place? What?

 

[gutter_trash]

Blaming Quebec alone is shallow since you have BC, Alberta, Sask, Manitoba and Ontario who still have a higher concentration of Conservative power bases.

Ontario is the mother who awarded them a majority in 2011

 

[Buba Big Guns]

So extreme CPC is still in 2nd place here despite being in 1st place almost everywhere else. But if Harper wins it'll exclusively be Quebec's fault for some reason.

I can't believe all this mental gymnastic to blame Quebec for everything wrong in the beautiful country of Canada. This thread has been fascinating to me, I understand better how Quebec bashing works now.

Are you kidding me? Where did anyone say Quebec is to be exclusively blamed? Stop trying to read between the lines and over analyzing when there's nothing to over analyze in the first place.

This whole turning arguments into black and white, with us or against us, talking points is exactly why fearmongering works.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

I don't think I need to read between the lines too much to understand you were blaming Quebec for a Conservative jump that is far from being exclusive to the province (6% VS 8%).

Maybe I'm too quick on the draw (though I'd argue it's justified considering the tone of this thread), but my points still stand.

If the conservatives win again, I just dont know. The degradation of science, tech, information, innovation in this country is too much at this point. Quebec seems to not have its priorities straight.

EDIT: Anyway, I don't feel like arguing anymore. Nobody will change his mind. I really, really, should stop coming to this thread...!

 

[Apathy]

This was a little bit odd coming out of Hamilton, the ndp candidate, who's also on the school board and a trustee didn't know what Auschwitz was.

http://m.thespec.com/news-story/5927450-hamilton-ndp-s-alex-johnstone-didn-t-know-what-auschwitz-was

I don't know how that's possible.

 

[Ledhead]

This was a little bit odd coming out of Hamilton, the ndp candidate, who's also on the school board and a trustee didn't know what Auschwitz was.

http://m.thespec.com/news-story/5927450-hamilton-ndp-s-alex-johnstone-didn-t-know-what-auschwitz-was

I don't know how that's possible.

I saw that. SMFH

 

[GuessMyUserName]

I'd just like to say that anyone flipping to the Cons over the niqab issue - no matter what province you're from - is disgusting human filth that should have their voting power revoked.

 

[gutter_trash]

This was a little bit odd coming out of Hamilton, the ndp candidate, who's also on the school board and a trustee didn't know what Auschwitz was.

http://m.thespec.com/news-story/5927450-hamilton-ndp-s-alex-johnstone-didn-t-know-what-auschwitz-was

I don't know how that's possible.

I don't believe her. I think she is liar for saying she did not know what Auschwitz was. She made that up for covering up her past jokefull social media comments

 

[massivekettle]

This was a little bit odd coming out of Hamilton, the ndp candidate, who's also on the school board and a trustee didn't know what Auschwitz was.

http://m.thespec.com/news-story/5927450-hamilton-ndp-s-alex-johnstone-didn-t-know-what-auschwitz-was

I don't know how that's possible.

Certainly not going to go down well with the Jewish crowd...

CPC and LIB are going to pounce...

 

[Apathy]

I don't believe her. I think she is liar for saying she did not know what Auschwitz was. She made that up for covering up her past jokefull social media comments

That's worse though. If she made the joke she can apologize. Her saying she doesn't know what it is is way more hurtful to a campaign


Edit : the riding is apparently a cross section between poor students and a neighbourhood with a high portion of Jewish people

 

[Tiktaalik]

Mainstreet also has the Conservatives well ahead in Ontario http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/battleground-ontario/

I don't think Ekos is an outlier. We're seeing disaffected Conservative voters that were flirting with the idea of Liberal or NDP going back home.

I believe now more than ever that the outcome of this election hinges on the upcoming Quebec debates. Either the NDP hold their base, or it splinters and we get either a large enough Bloc contingent that a coalition is impossible, or a Conservative Majority. Trudeau obviously has the opportunity to pick up Montreal area seats as well, but with the way the rest of the country seems to be swinging back to the Cons, at this time I would consider a Liberal government the least likely outcome.

Herbert is once again great in this article. I'm looking forward to watching the CBC At Issue panel tonight with Hebert and Coyne.

Mulcair coming to French-language debate with much larger target on his back: Hébert

MONTREAL—With his party’s competitive position in national voting intentions hanging by a Quebec thread, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has more to lose than to gain in Thursday’s French-language debate.

Since the campaign began, a commanding lead in Quebec is mostly what has kept the New Democrats in the game. But the status of front-runner comes at a price and Mulcair will spend the first French-language debate of the campaign on the hot seat.

He absolutely needs to keep alive the prospect of a second Quebec orange wave. Absent a strong showing in the province’s polls, the NDP’s carefully constructed bid for power could crumble like a house of cards.

The party’s narrative hangs on the notion that the New Democrats are best placed to beat the Conservatives next month. On the way to this week’s French-language debate, that contention has been sorely tested.

If all had gone according to plan for the NDP, Justin Trudeau would no longer be a realistic contender for prime minister. With the Liberals lagging too far behind to have a shot at winning the election and the help of a cautious platform there would be an NDP wave in the making in Ontario.

So far, neither has happened.

Eight weeks and two English-language debates later — including one on the central issue of the economy — the Liberal leader is still standing and his party has gained more ground in public opinion, in particular in Ontario, than the NDP.

At this juncture, a slide in NDP support in Quebec could lead to a hemorrhage of support in other regions of the country as non-conservative voters coalesce behind the stronger opposition option.

Until this week, the main liability Mulcair was expected to take in the French-language debate was his support for the Energy East pipeline. That stance pits him against Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe, and it does not play well with Quebec’s environmental activists.

But now the NDP leader is coming to the debate with a much larger target on his back.
In Quebec, the debate over whether Muslim women should be required to uncover their faces to take the oath of citizenship has given a moribund Bloc campaign a bit of a kiss of life.

Support for a veil ban runs high in Quebec. In the national assembly, a Liberal move to ban face coverings for public servants and for anyone using provincial government services enjoys multi-party support.

The NDP is not alone in opposing a niqab ban. So do the Liberals. But because the Bloc and the New Democrats fish in the same nationalist pool of francophone voters, Duceppe’s attacks have focused on Mulcair.

Anecdotal and recent polling evidence suggest they are taking a toll.

At this juncture, the NDP’s best hope of riding out the niqab controversy would be for the election conversation to move on to other topics. But with not one but two French-language debates on the agenda of the next two weeks and with the help of BQ and Conservative ads, the niqab issue could be on the Quebec radar to stay.

A good debate for Duceppe on Thursday would be good news for Harper and Trudeau.

Every vote that the Bloc takes back from the NDP helps the Liberals and the Conservatives in their own local battles against the New Democrat tide.

The NDP has owned Quebec since the beginning of the campaign but that could still change. Past history shows that the debates tend to focus Quebecers on their election choices — sometimes with unexpected results.

When he arrived on the set of the French-language debate in the last election, Duceppe had cause to believe he was bulletproof. His party was sitting on its usual comfortable lead. As the only Quebec leader on the set, he had the home advantage.

So widespread were those assumptions that those who covered the 2011 French-language debate did not come away with the impression that it had been a watershed moment.

A few days later, the NDP jumped in the lead in Quebec, and never looked back.

This year, the roles are reversed, with Mulcair the leader to beat and Duceppe the one to watch.

 

[Walpurgis]

I'd just like to say that anyone flipping to the Cons over the niqab issue - no matter what province you're from - is disgusting human filth that should have their voting power revoked.

I agree. It's the definition of bigotry and intolerance. This entire country has gone into the shitter with the Conservatives and all some people seem to care about is whether or not a hundred or so foreign looking women are allowed into the country.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

I'd just like to say that anyone flipping to the Cons over the niqab issue - no matter what province you're from - is disgusting human filth that should have their voting power revoked.

This I can agree with. No matter where you stand on this "issue", I fail to see how you can switch your vote based on this alone. It's so minuscule in the grand scheme of things...

 

[Tiktaalik]

I don't believe her. I think she is liar for saying she did not know what Auschwitz was. She made that up for covering up her past jokefull social media comments

Yep agreed.

 

[Azih]

I don't think you guys realize how deeply horrifying it is to have your faith considered to be enough of a terrible slur that it can be used as graffiti to deface a candidate's sign. Is the word 'Islam' really that hateful?

 

[Walpurgis]

I don't think you guys realize how deeply horrifying it is to have your faith considered to be enough of a terrible slur that it can be used as graffiti to deface a candidate's sign. Is the word 'Islam' really that hateful?

I've grown used to it. I don't really get offended unless people are pushing for legislation targeted toward Muslims. I am African and male so, thankfully, I don't experience the hate when I'm out and about. I can only imagine what it's like to be a woman or middle eastern, especially during these "phases". The only thing I can do is vote against parties that contribute to that. Thankfully, in Canada, I can vote for most parties.

 

[gutter_trash]

will there be another English Debate? because I think it is heavily needed

 

[TheRealTalker]

ISIS and taxes. ISIS likes higher taxes. Do you want to support ISIS? Only a Harper-led Conservative government can save us.

this should help

Because apparently 0.001% of the population having previously met all security and identification requirements may, or may not, want to wear a niqab during a public swearing-in ceremony to become a Canadian citizen. Such a thought has rightly rustled some jimmies, and many will cling in desperation to any political party that will ensure such a nightmare scenario is prevented. This is Canada after all, where we are strong and free.

sigh... I just can't and the CP is just laughing it up

some people

 

[gutter_trash]

tonight it is not a TVA debate but a Radio-Canada debate with Elizabeth May included.

If it were a TVA debate, I think it would have been a bigger clown show

but since it is a Radio-Canada debate, plus the addition of May may added a 5th voice that could calm down the storm.

*** the moderators will be by Patrice Roy (news reporter who survived a road side bomb while ridding with Canadian Troops in Afghanistan) and Yves Boisvert from Lapresse. So the debate should be more civil than though it was goign to be

 

[Stumpokapow]

RE: Outlier polls; 1 in 20 polls will be an outlier, even if conducted perfectly. Polling agencies report 95% CIs. That means that the true value of popular support will only be in the poll's margin of error interval 95% of the time.

The keys to figuring out if a poll is an outlier:
1) wait for more polls (note: not just polls from other outlets)

2) apply prior beliefs and use Bayesian inference. If a poll shows a large swing and you don't see any credible real-world event that would cause this, then your prior should be that there's no swing. I could buy a conservative swing in Quebec based on recent news, although perhaps not such a big one. But I can't establish a narrative that would explain anything resembling that kind of national swing.

So my blind guess would be that that poll is an outlier. I guess we'll see.

 

[SRG01]

Hey, remember those handwritten NDP signs in Harper's riding in Calgary? The ones that got removed for some reason? Turns out it was Calgary's Bylaw Services that did it: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-sign-harper-calgary-heritage-removed-bylaw-1.3240562

Happy ending though: the signs were returned after they realized that they were official campaign signage.

 

[DreamMachine]

welp, looks like harper is getting close to majority territory. layton crosby is working his magic again. cpc are pulling way ahead at this point i am starting to accept another majority for conservatives

 

[maharg]

Ekos has often been the first to show a trend the others eventually follow up on, though. The 2011 Orange Wave was showing up in Ekos about a week before any other pollsters caught it, and likewise again they were the first to show a committed rise in NDP vote intentions in Alberta iirc.

Obviously you do still need to wait and see more, and a CPC rise in the polls could lead to people finally making a *collective* choice between the NDP and the Liberals rather than the piecemeal riding-by-riding strategic voting nonsense everyone's been trying to make work for years (which is basically what happened in Alberta, though that was an easier choice since the ALP under Swann was basically anemic and nothing like the current LPC).

 

[CitizenVectron]

Let's say that this poll is an actual early peek into a trend that allows the Conservatives to win another majority, this time with only 35-38% of the vote. Would this be a catalyst for merger talks between the LPC and NDP? Or would it take another defeat?

 

[matthewwhatever]

Mainstreet also has the Conservatives well ahead in Ontario http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/battleground-ontario/

Not as well ahead as Ekos -- both have the Conservatives at 38, but Mainstreet at least has the Liberals within the MoE at 34, whereas Ekos has them back at 30. Mainstreet is backed by Leger and Nanos, who both have the CPC and LPC hovering at around 35, with the NDP around 20.

RE: Outlier polls; 1 in 20 polls will be an outlier, even if conducted perfectly. Polling agencies report 95% CIs. That means that the true value of popular support will only be in the poll's margin of error interval 95% of the time.

The keys to figuring out if a poll is an outlier:
1) wait for more polls (note: not just polls from other outlets)

2) apply prior beliefs and use Bayesian inference. If a poll shows a large swing and you don't see any credible real-world event that would cause this, then your prior should be that there's no swing. I could buy a conservative swing in Quebec based on recent news, although perhaps not such a big one. But I can't establish a narrative that would explain anything resembling that kind of national swing.

So my blind guess would be that that poll is an outlier. I guess we'll see.

Even Frank Graves, the head pollster at Ekos, is saying people should be cautious, and he's puzzled by the discrepancies. They also haven't released the breakdowns or the methodology yet, so until we can see all that, it's hard to tell exactly what's fueling a Conservative surge. The last Ekos poll had the Conservatives rising on the strength of the Syrian refugee crisis, but I can't imagine that specific issue causing people to abandon the NDP in favour of the Conservatives.

will there be another English Debate? because I think it is heavily needed

Yep, the Munk debate is still to come. It'll be foreign policy-focused, though, and it may not be broadcast on any of the major stations.

On a related note: Here's why you should watch the French debate (even if you only speak English)

1. It’s being organized through the Broadcast Consortium, which means it will air live on the two main English cable news network, as well as Radio-Canada channels across the dial, CPAC and various online streaming services.

2. There’s no fixed topic, so the questions — and answers — could delve into areas that haven’t yet come up during previous debates or on the campaign trail.

3. For the first — and last — time during this campaign, there will be five — yes, five — leaders on stage, and they’ve all got a lot at stake.

And if anyone wants to know where to watch:

French-only: Ici Radio-Canada (all platforms), Tele-Quebec, lapresse.ca

French with simultaneous English interpretation: CBC News Network, CTV News Channel, Cable Public Affairs Channel (CPAC)

Online: Globalnews.ca, Youtube Canada: Election 2015

 

[Tiktaalik]

 

[eBay Huckster]

Ekos has often been the first to show a trend the others eventually follow up on, though. The 2011 Orange Wave was showing up in Ekos about a week before any other pollsters caught it, and likewise again they were the first to show a committed rise in NDP vote intentions in Alberta iirc.

IIRC they also had a series of weird outliers a week before the Ontario election last year that had Hudak in the lead, so...

(the best part of that election was probably Ipsos having Hudak in the lead in literally every LV poll)

 

[SRG01]

Let's say that this poll is an actual early peek into a trend that allows the Conservatives to win another majority, this time with only 35-38% of the vote. Would this be a catalyst for merger talks between the LPC and NDP? Or would it take another defeat?

It will never happen, because the NDP still has a core component to the party that is extremely left-wing while the Liberals are still very centrist.

Yes, pretty much this.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

I assumed from the beginning that Harper would win yet again, but I couldn't have guessed it would have been with such a stupid move. Conservatives really are experts at exploiting the population's fear and stupidity for their own gain. Even as a perpetual pessimist, I underestimate that stupidity, but they don't, and that's how they manage to win again and again...

I'll miss the debate tonight, but I'm sure it'll be niqab niqab niqab niqab. Ugh.

 

[lacinius]

*** the moderators will be by Patrice Roy (news reporter who survived a road side bomb while ridding with Canadian Troops in Afghanistan) and Yves Boisvert from Lapresse. So the debate should be more civil than though it was goign to be

Is Yves Boisvert still employed?

 

[matthewwhatever]

I'll miss the debate tonight, but I'm sure it'll be niqab niqab niqab niqab. Ugh.

I think it'll be a bit of that, but also Energy East (the Liberals are pushing a video today -- which ends rather abruptly, I'll admit -- from 2013 of Mulcair in Washington talking about making an east-west pipeline a priority) and F-35s (Harper seems to be sticking with his talking point that canceling them would kill jobs, even without much evidence). Maybe a bit of childcare, if the Liberals decide to stick with their unearthed Mulcair video from yesterday.

Though for La Presse, it's all about the niqab:

 

[Deleted member 126221]

Is Yves Boisvert still employed?

Whaaaaat. As much as I dislike La Presse editorial line, this is terrible. So we'll pretty much only have Journal de Montréal/Québec with its cover pages about ran-over dogs and the Disney on Ice show at the Centre Vidéotron. God damn.

I assume Boisvert will keep his job however. They'll want to keep him.

 

[Ledhead]

Whaaaaat. As much as I dislike La Presse editorial line, this is terrible. So we'll pretty much only have Journal de Montréal/Québec with its cover pages about ran-over dogs and the Disney on Ice show at the Centre Vidéotron. God damn.

I assume Boisvert will keep his job however. They'll want to keep him.

Don't worry man, you still have Allo Police to keep you up to date on things

 

[gutter_trash]

I'm happy that May will be there today. She proved herself in the Maclean's debate and proved me wrong.

With nothing to lose, she can put Harper in his place about this stupid distraction wedge issue

 

[MeBecomingI]

The Ekos poll... fucking what? How? How can people be that stupid?

We're doomed.

 

[Walpurgis]

I'm happy that May will be there today. She proved herself in the Maclean's debate and proved me wrong.

With nothing to lose, she can put Harper in his place about this stupid distraction wedge issue

Wow! May just got gutter_trash to admit that he was wrong about her. Could she be Canada's next Prime Minister?