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CFB Week 15: Championship Week - Cool as Nacho Cheese

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Y

Yaboosh

Super Sleuth
cashman said:
The real problem with dropping TCU is that they were already ranked ahead of Florida St. who played shaky again. If FSU has been dropping because they've looked awful in their wins how do they jump ahead of TCU if it was just the same story this week?
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Because this time we did it against the #11 team.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Yaboosh said:
Because this time we did it against the #11 team.
Click to expand...

Florida State has dropped every week. What's one more. :/

In a way, like I said I think in the last moments of last week's thread, it would be hilarious if FSU dropped to 5 tomorrow, was left out, won their bowl game, and the AP voters moved them to 1.

A split champion in the very first year of the CFP. College football, everybody.

(But they're likely still in.)
 
D

DominoKid

Member
cashman said:
The real problem with dropping TCU is that they were already ranked ahead of Florida St. who played shaky again. If FSU has been dropping because they've looked awful in their wins how do they jump ahead of TCU if it was just the same story this week?
Click to expand...

Because now they are a conference champion.

It doesnt have to make sense to happen.
 
C

C4Lukins

Junior Member
Yaboosh said:
Because this time we did it against the #11 team.
Click to expand...

Baylor beat the number 9 team. Sure it was not as dominant a win, but if we want to talk about dominant wins then compare TCU dominating Minnesota while Ohio State squeaked by, the only opponent they had in common. And around and around we go.
 
Y

Yaboosh

Super Sleuth
C4Lukins said:
Baylor beat the number 9 team. Sure it was not as dominant a win, but if we want to talk about dominant wins then compare TCU dominating Minnesota while Ohio State squeaked by, the only opponent they had in common. And around and around we go.
Click to expand...


There is 1 important differentiator.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Briles has lost. His team is out, it's just a matter of 2 out of TCU, FSU, and tMCU.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 15m 15 minutes ago
Big problem for Baylor is that if the committee wants to avoid the whole head-to-head debate, easiest way is to omit both Baylor and TCU.
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Sums it up for Baylor. It would be illogical regarding TCU, but Baylor is solidly outside, in my opinion.

Since nobody asked and they're likely to be wrong, here's some further statistical speculation from Silver.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 13s 13 seconds ago
Also FWIW: our model would have OSU favored to surpass TCU (but not FSU) had TCU stayed at No. 4 last week and FSU at No. 3.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 6m 6 minutes ago
My personal, subjective take FWIW: Alabama 100%, Oregon 100%, FSU 85%, TCU 80%, OSU 33%, Baylor 2%. http://53eig.ht/1w1VhPn

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 8m 8 minutes ago
How our statistical model has the odds: Alabama 100%, Oregon 100%, TCU 91%, FSU 68%, Ohio State 40%, Baylor 1%. http://53eig.ht/1w1VhPn

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 9m 9 minutes ago
Our late-night analysis of the college football playoff picture: http://53eig.ht/1w1VhPn
Click to expand...
 
B

bucknuticus

Member
C4Lukins said:
Baylor beat the number 9 team. Sure it was not as dominant a win, but if we want to talk about dominant wins then compare TCU dominating Minnesota while Ohio State squeaked by, the only opponent they had in common. And around and around we go.
Click to expand...

in a snow storm, at minny, and it was like -2
 
C

cashman

Banned
DominoKid said:
Because now they are a conference champion.

It doesnt have to make sense to happen.
Click to expand...

Randolph Freelander said:
Briles has lost. His team is out, it's just a matter of 2 out of TCU, FSU, and tMCU.



Sums it up for Baylor. It would be illogical regarding TCU, but Baylor is solidly outside, in my opinion.

Since nobody asked and they're likely to be wrong, here's some further statistical speculation from Silver.
Click to expand...
The latest tweet is pretty much my thoughts on this. If TCU was fourth then they would probably be jumped, but now they're pretty much locked in by being ahead of FSU this week.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Forde kind of blasts the committee, the Big Ten, and ESPN here

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/will-c...y-of-games-didn-t-help---054509940-ncaaf.html

(Middle section of the larger article)

So what does the committee do with its two spots and four teams? [My note: In case it's not obvious, he's referring to TCU, FSU, tMCU, and Baylor]

Unfortunately, it can’t change the rules on the fly and make this a six-team tournament, with first-round byes for the Crimson Tide and Ducks. So it has to make some tough calls.

If the weeks of ill-advised rankings releases can be used as any kind of guide, the Buckeyes may ace out the Big 12. The committee has overvalued a league that did virtually nothing in non-conference play, rewarding Big Ten teams for beating other Big Ten teams that hadn’t proved much.

Ohio State was ranked fifth last week, ahead of Baylor, despite having fewer quality victories and a far worse loss. Michigan State was ranked eighth despite zero victories over ranked teams – a five-point victory at home against a Nebraska team that fired his coach as a highlight. Wisconsin was ranked 13th despite having a loss to 5-7 Northwestern and no quality victories.

A college administrator told me in late November that he’d been told the former coaches on the committee were having the most influence in the meeting room. As it happens, two of the three former coaches on the committee have ties to Big Ten schools – Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez and former Nebraska coach and AD Tom Osborne. As it also happens, those men were highly successful coaches while espousing an old-school, smash-mouth football philosophy.

Who plays smashmouth? Michigan State and Wisconsin, both highly regarded by the committee, are two that come readily to mind. Hurry-up, spread-offense Baylor doesn’t fit that blueprint.

Still, predicting what the final vote will look like is precarious business – especially if the committee lives up to its credo of using a blank canvas every week and starting over. There may be an 11th-hour appreciation of the Bears that has not existed to date, or some other shift that creates a different outcome.

But if that happens, then the value of the weekly releases will be called even further into question. If the committee changes its mind on teams at the last minute, then how trustworthy was all the work up to this point? Was it all a show-business charade for ESPN’s benefit and to drum up interest (as if college football needed more) in the new postseason format?

That would be a bad look, and it would lead to a withering examination of the methodology in the coming weeks.
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D

Draconian

Member
I just don't understand why TCU is so far ahead of Baylor coming into this week. It irritates me to think about the head to head matchup not mattering one bit.
 
C

C4Lukins

Junior Member
bucknuticus said:
in a snow storm, at minny, and it was like -2
Click to expand...

The point is you can pick and choose why one victory means more then another to create whatever narrative for your team. Two teams are going to get screwed tomorrow, and the playoff committee is going to have to weigh every small little morsel of positive or negative info in order to come to a conclusion. I can make a compelling argument for all three teams on the cusp.
 
M

mre

Golden Domers are chickenshit!!
Kevtones said:
100% it's going to be:


1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. TCU
Click to expand...
FSU only moves up in two scenarios: (1) Alabama moves to 2nd with FSU 3rd and TCU 4th, or (2) Bama moves to 2nd while FSU moves to 3rd and OSU moves to 4th.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
matchups will be Oregon-Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and Alabama-Florida State in the Sugar Bowl, whether Alabama remains #1 or not and how that affects the other seeds doesn't really matter
inb4 the committee trolls us all and puts Baylor in

just imagine if we had the BCS, we'd have 5 1-loss teams going for the #2 spot and SECSECSEC would almost ensure Florida State/Alabama
 
L

Lonestar

I joined for Erin Brockovich discussion
Thing I love, is the pickle in "precedence" in whoever they put in, if it actually is between Baylor/TCU.

TCU means "fuck conference champions" because Co-Champs is bullshit and not real.
Baylor means "fuck OOC schedules, SMU and Southern Miss for everyone!"
 
K

Kevtones

Member
OSU has the worst resume of the three. Throw in the B1G factor and the human need for consistency - TCU or Baylor have that spot.



If money or 'late season flurry' overrides a 14 point home defeat to a GARBAGE Virginia Tech team then we've already lost as fans.

I mean come on:

b3esvencqaafwdn.jpg


Even FSU beat Wake Forest 43-3.
 
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