I just read a
really good article criticizing TVByTheNumbers' Renew/Cancel headline about Chuck being in trouble and exploring the show's chances.
There's an interesting part that mentions an Audience Loyalty Index which seems to confirm what we suspected after seeing the first ratings from this season: Chuck, with virtually no advertising, is running purely on its loyal fanbase right now. 95,7% of the audience from the first episode returned for the second one, suggesting that only 5% of its viewers leaves between episodes. Comparatively, last year it averaged 82% on that index, which means the new viewers we caught in the first half of the season weren't all that loyal and, as we saw, left rather quickly.
So assuming that remains true, the good news is we're unlikely to fall much further from where we are at the moment. The question now is whether that's enough for NBC...