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CNN: Green Party files for Wisconsin recount, audit

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the point of the recount is not to reverse the results of Election night,

the point is to address the disparity between pencil/paper ballots versus electronic ballots
 

Totakeke

Member
Well a distinction should be made between the polls and a prediction. Many of the predictions were based on more complicated models that aggregated various polling data and weighted it differently. But as you say, even an 80% chance leaves a 20% chance that it could happen, which is still pretty significant.

Event with the state polls it depends on the specific polls, but so much of this still revolves around the models they use to estimate and the samples they have access to or respond. For those based on the likely voters, they weight/exclude/include variably based on voting in previous elections and how likely they think they are to vote. That can exclude or poorly weight people who didn't vote this time or who didn't vote in the 2008 or 2012 election but were motivated to vote this time. Plus there's still some long-standing methodological issues with the way polls have been run with the rise of cell phones. Here's a New York Times article discussing some of these biases.



This shit isn't simple, and we're not educating people well enough. Also, pollsters aren't being transparent enough with their methods to allow people to find issues. (The LATimes poll is an exception, as they did take that model and explain what some thought was going wrong.)

You were talking about Nate Silver so I took it to mean that the modelers you're talking about were of his type. But otherwise no disagreements here.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Like it or not, this does make the dems (and Jill Stein) look like sore losers to the average person and I don't blame them for building it up like this. It's truly ridiculous. Very few of those taking up for it now would be taking up for it if the tables were turned. They were already setting the stage to do the opposite before Trump won.

KKmkbz4.jpg

Hilary has 1) conceded, 2) has not retracted her concession, and 3) has not made unfounded accusations of election fraud. If there's a recount happening - and there is - it makes sense to be involved to monitor it.
 

soco

Member
Like it or not, this does make the dems (and Jill Stein) look like sore losers to the average person and I don't blame them for building it up like this. It's truly ridiculous. Very few of those taking up for it now would be taking up for it if the tables were turned. They were already setting the stage to do the opposite before Trump won.

http://i.imgur.com/KKmkbz4.jpg[IMG][/QUOTE]

Jesus christ. Your poster-sized tweet adds zero value plus it's so f'n gigantic.
 

KingBroly

Banned
If the presidential race was found to be off or hacked, wouldn't that lead to recounts in these races?

No

If neither candidate gets to 270, it goes to the candidate with a majority EC votes. In this case, removing all 46 would put Trump at 260 and Hillary at 232. Let's say you flip MI and WI to Hillary while invalidating PA, it'd be 260-258 Trump (did the math on this before I came in here) without accounting for faithless electors (I've heard Hillary has 6 and Trump has 0 atm).

HOWEVER, it is in my opinion that any flipped states at this point (Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular) would cause the House to throw their votes out. Why?
MI - You had 3 counts, 2 favoring Trump, 1 Hillary. Hillary's win would look like an outlier.
PA - You basically can't recount PA. You'd have to invalidate it entirely.

The margins are simply too large compared to historical statewide-ran elections, particularly ones that flipped and in 2 PA races in 09 and 11 that didn't, to flip and not be extremely suspicious for the beneficiary party, in this case, Clinton. Even invalidating them would super suspicious because of the margins of victory versus historical norms for recounts.


Trump could put a stop to recounts in MI if he wanted to by saying he objects to them (his right under state law), and none of this would matter.
 

MIMIC

Banned
Team Clinton's general counsel's statement on the whole recount affair.

In the coming days, we will continue to perform our due diligence and actively follow all further activities that are to occur prior to the certification of any election results. For instance, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania conduct post-election audits using a sampling of precincts. Michigan and many other states still do not. This is unfortunate; it is our strong belief that, in addition to an election canvass, every state should do this basic audit to ensure accuracy and public confidence in the election.

Beyond the post-election audit, Green Party candidate Jill Stein announced Friday that she will exercise her right as a candidate to pursue a recount in the state of Wisconsin. She has indicated plans to also seek recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides. If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well. We do so fully aware that the number of votes separating Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the closest of these states — Michigan — well exceeds the largest margin ever overcome in a recount. But regardless of the potential to change the outcome in any of the states, we feel it is important, on principle, to ensure our campaign is legally represented in any court proceedings and represented on the ground in order to monitor the recount process itself.

And just in case anyone forgot about the Russians:

Moreover, this election cycle was unique in the degree of foreign interference witnessed throughout the campaign: the U.S. government concluded that Russian state actors were behind the hacks of the Democratic National Committee and the personal email accounts of Hillary for America campaign officials, and just yesterday, the Washington Post reported that the Russian government was behind much of the “fake news” propaganda that circulated online in the closing weeks of the election.
 

KingBroly

Banned

MaulerX

Member
Saying that she didn't receive the majority of the vote by combining votes for all other candidates is delusional at best.



Do you even know what the term "plurality winner" even means? It means exactly that, that you win the popular vote without winning the majority vote (she's under 50%). She did not win the majority vote. It's a fact and there's nothing delusional about it.
 

seat

Member

I can't believe this is our president-elect. I know he will be our president, but even though the election is over he has literally done nothing to try to mend the division in our country and is instead doing exactly the opposite. It's unprecedented for our modern time. People thought Obama was given a hard time after he was elected, but Trump ain't seen nothin' yet if he continues to be so deliberately antagonistic towards half the country.

You know what? Let's give him hell.
 

KingBroly

Banned
Any ETA on how long this recount will take?

Wisconsin said 2 weeks

All 3 states have to file by the 13th or the House can throw their votes out. This is Federal Law.

Pennsylvania's probably going to tell Stein/Clinton to pound sand because of how impossible it'd be to do a recount, let alone in 2 weeks. We're talking 27,000 volunteers PER party to help monitor recounts on top of however many election officials, lawyers, etc. Not to mention having to Challenge in each of the state's 83 districts and 9000+ districts. Good lord. It'd take 6 months. But I guess that's why those machines were made and are still used. To prevent recounts. Oh, and they'd have to prove there was statewide systematic fraud in each of these 9000 precincts as well. Good fucking luck.

http://billypenn.com/2016/11/23/a-p...llary-clinton-a-nightmare-scenario-explained/

That is the definition of insanity.
 
I was talking about this with some friends the other day, and we all came to the conclusion that we don't know what would be worse. A Trump presidency... or the absolute crack that would form if the long shot occurred and the election was to swap from one candidate winning to another.

If you think now is bad, there would literally be riots in the streets as Republicans would have had their presidency taken away from them. The Alternative Right which has already come out of the darkness would go full on postal because there is no way they would just disappear quietly. Not to mention the actual implications of a historical amount of voter fraud never before having been seen in the USA which would bring the entire democratic process into question.

Then there is the other idea of, what if Hillary flips one or two states, but Trump still ends up on top. If you don't think the Republicans would use that as an opportunity to go full in 100% Electoral Reform with Voter ID, Gerrymandering and non trackable Electronic Voting, you would be insane.
 
I can't believe this is our president-elect. I know he will be our president, but even though the election is over he has literally done nothing to try to mend the division in our country and is instead doing exactly the opposite. It's unprecedented for our modern time. People thought Obama was given a hard time after he was elected, but Trump ain't seen nothin' yet if he continues to be so deliberately antagonistic towards half the country.

You know what? Let's give him hell.

The disparity between his prepared statements "~mend the division~" and his uncensored tweets "~fuck half the country~" is hilarious.
 

KingBroly

Banned
I was talking about this with some friends earlier today, and we all came to the conclusion that we don't know what would be worse. A Trump presidency... or the absolute crack that would form if the long shot occurred and the election was to swap from one candidate winning to another.

If you think now is bad, there would literally be riots in the streets as Republicans would have had their presidency taken away from them. The Alternative Right which has already come out of the darkness would go full on postal because there is no way they would just disappear quietly.

Not to mention the actual implications of a historical amount of voter fraud never before having been seen in the USA which would bring the entire democratic process into question.

Then there is the other idea of, what if Hillary flips one or two states, but Trump still ends up on top. If you don't think the Republicans would use that as an opportunity to go full in 100% Electoral Reform with Voter ID, Gerrymandering and non trackable Electronic Voting, you are insane

A crack would be infinitely worse. With a Trump Presidency, like him or not, good or bad, you at least have a sense of normalcy, however light it may be. Hell, the DNC could just stonewall him for 4 years if they wanted. But it's better than running around with our heads cut off.
 
A crack would be infinitely worse. With a Trump Presidency, like him or not, good or bad, you at least have a sense of normalcy, however light it may be. Hell, the DNC could just stonewall him for 4 years if they wanted. But it's better than running around with our heads cut off.

That's pretty much the only logical conclusion. With a crack you would essentially be marking down the date in a history book for where everything went down the hill. There would be no recovering from the actual implications of what it would mean.
Though, the "don't know what's worse" was more sarcastic figure of speech to get the point across because even though Trump is terrible, the crack would be worse
 

Zeus Molecules

illegal immigrants are stealing our air
Like it or not, this does make the dems (and Jill Stein) look like sore losers to the average person and I don't blame them for building it up like this. It's truly ridiculous. Very few of those taking up for it now would be taking up for it if the tables were turned. They were already setting the stage to do the opposite before Trump won.

KKmkbz4.jpg

Who cares? Its suspect, I rather they look and see than roll over like Gore did.
 

Zeus Molecules

illegal immigrants are stealing our air
I was talking about this with some friends the other day, and we all came to the conclusion that we don't know what would be worse. A Trump presidency... or the absolute crack that would form if the long shot occurred and the election was to swap from one candidate winning to another.

If you think now is bad, there would literally be riots in the streets as Republicans would have had their presidency taken away from them. The Alternative Right which has already come out of the darkness would go full on postal because there is no way they would just disappear quietly. Not to mention the actual implications of a historical amount of voter fraud never before having been seen in the USA which would bring the entire democratic process into question.

Then there is the other idea of, what if Hillary flips one or two states, but Trump still ends up on top. If you don't think the Republicans would use that as an opportunity to go full in 100% Electoral Reform with Voter ID, Gerrymandering and non trackable Electronic Voting, you are insane

You realize that the dems are going to spend the next for years rioting too. The only difference is when the police open fire on them it will be with the blessing of the white house......

I mean there was rioting against trump as he ran, Why would his presidency in any way point to a normalization of American politics.
 

KingBroly

Banned
That's pretty much the only logical conclusion. You would literally be able to mark down the date in a history book for where everything went down the hill. There would be no recovering from the actual implications of what it would mean.
Though, the don't know what's worse was more sarcastic figure of speech to get the point across :p

Personally, I think that date for the US was the Kennedy Assassination. America lost its' innocence that day. Just go back to it and you'll see that a lot of the things that fell into place because of it.

I think Trump has the ability to be a Great President. I think he has great instincts, and he goes around the world talking to people, making deals. He, above all, wants results. He doesn't care how he gets them. For a guy who had no Political experience coming into this campaign, he took down the entire heavyweight division. That says something about him and his skillset for the job. I also like that he gave us 2 Nintendo Directs this week, and I hope he does more of them, talking DIRECTLY to the American people.
 

manakel

Member
I also like that he gave us 2 Nintendo Directs this week, and I hope he does more of them, talking DIRECTLY to the American people.
Like how he continually preaches about unity, and then five minutes later goes on twitter rampages that contradict the exact things he's spouting off?

I would like to believe that Trump will be a good president. But the behavior he's shown within the weeks since the election give me little hope that he will be able to unify this country, let alone be an effective communicator with other nations.
 
Personally, I think that date for the US was the Kennedy Assassination. America lost its' innocence that day. Just go back to it and you'll see that a lot of the things that fell into place because of it.

I think Trump has the ability to be a Great President. I think he has great instincts, and he goes around the world talking to people, making deals. He, above all, wants results. He doesn't care how he gets them. For a guy who had no Political experience coming into this campaign, he took down the entire heavyweight division. That says something about him and his skillset for the job. I also like that he gave us 2 Nintendo Directs this week, and I hope he does more of them, talking DIRECTLY to the American people.

Not sure if serious but it says he's a populist and nothing more. Who knows what he wants, right now it looks like he wants what's best for his businesses, for someone else to handle anything not related to his businesses and a white af america.
 

KingBroly

Banned
Like how he continually preaches about unity, and then five minutes later goes on twitter rampages that contradict the exact things he's spouting off?

I would like to believe that Trump will be a good president. But the behavior he's shown within the weeks since the election give me little hope that he will be able to unify this country, let alone be an effective communicator with other nations.

The best uniting factor is results.
 

Black_Sun

Member
Personally, I think that date for the US was the Kennedy Assassination. America lost its' innocence that day. Just go back to it and you'll see that a lot of the things that fell into place because of it.

I think Trump has the ability to be a Great President. I think he has great instincts, and he goes around the world talking to people, making deals. He, above all, wants results. He doesn't care how he gets them. For a guy who had no Political experience coming into this campaign, he took down the entire heavyweight division. That says something about him and his skillset for the job. I also like that he gave us 2 Nintendo Directs this week, and I hope he does more of them, talking DIRECTLY to the American people.

Bruh. Have you been paying attention to all the news? His cabinet is full of loonies and he's setting up a kleptocracy. He wants Pence to do all the work and he wants to spend half his time in Trump Tower that'll cost the country and NYC a million dollars per day. He's even blocking up traffic on Wall Street.

Not to mention that he's using his influence to set up contracts for himself while he's president and is planning to run his business and the country at the same time.
 

OuterLimits

Member
Man, this election has been something. You have some on the Right thinking "dead people" and non citizens were voting everywhere.

You have some on the Left thinking Russian agents were running around sabotaging voting machines.

Seeing how Trump won Ohio by 9%, it's not surprising to me that he was competitive in Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Ohio is usually pretty damn close, so if he was winning by that large a margin, it makes sense that he would get votes from the similar blue collar voters in other neighboring states. Plus he did extremely well in both the Michigan and Pennsylvania primaries. Finally polls before election day showed Trump tied or within the margin of error in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin is the only one that is more of a surprise to me since he got crushed in the primary and Paul Ryan wasn't exactly a big ally of his.
 

Balphon

Member
I can't believe this is our president-elect. I know he will be our president, but even though the election is over he has literally done nothing to try to mend the division in our country and is instead doing exactly the opposite. It's unprecedented for our modern time. People thought Obama was given a hard time after he was elected, but Trump ain't seen nothin' yet if he continues to be so deliberately antagonistic towards half the country.

I don't think Trump has enough self-control to maintain any sense of magnanimity for more than a few minutes. At some point you'd think even his voters will tire of his constant bile and recrimination.

It might honestly be in Twitter's best interests to close Trump's account if he's going to continue on like this.
 

Anfony O

Member
Guys I know this is totally irelevant but this story has made me look into Jill Stein's political stance for the first time, and to be honest i''m shocked. I was given the impression thay she was a looney from her stance against vaccinations (which apparently she is not true) and the whole wifi waves thing (which from what I read she demanded more studies into after being asked about it by an audience member). I really found a lot of what she has to says is incredibly in line with what Bernie was offering. Now this was a quick brush thru so pardon my ignorance and if anyone here can offer me a bit of a more detailed explanation on why Jill was branded a bit crazy i'de really appreciate it. Thought i'de save us a new political thread.
 
Regardless of the outcome, I think there should be a recount. I doubt anything will change but if there any chance of Russian hacking our polls, it should be handled by whoever is president. These are serious accusations.
 
Guys I know this is totally irelevant but this story has made me look into Jill Stein's political stance for the first time, and to be honest i''m shocked. I was given the impression thay she was a looney from her stance against vaccinations (which apparently she is not true) and the whole wifi waves thing (which from what I read she demanded more studies into after being asked about it by an audience member). I really found a lot of what she has to says is incredibly in line with what Bernie was offering. Now this was a quick brush thru so pardon my ignorance and if anyone here can offer me a bit of a more detailed explanation on why Jill was branded a bit crazy i'de really appreciate it. Thought i'de save us a new political thread.

She's an authoritarian that wants to immediately shut down all nuke plants and ban GMOs, which would drive our carbon output through the roof. She's a Putin worshipping wannabe tyrant. She's terrible.
 

Alanood

Member
Like it or not, this does make the dems (and Jill Stein) look like sore losers to the average person
It's okay, the average person voted for Trump, a sore loser who wouldn't accept the result if he's not the winner.
Perhaps the average person prefers idiots.
 
why Jill was branded a bit crazy i'de really appreciate it.

This is why you always should verify claims you read online (especially in an echo chamber message board). It's politics. People constantly make up lies about the competition. The anti-vaccination lie is easily disproven, but if enough people repeat a lie on the Internet, it becomes "true," even though it's actually not.
 

Yoda

Member
This is really stupid, they'd need to overturn more than one state for this to work. Aside from that, this makes Liberals come off as sore losers. If any state should be recounted it's Michigan, not Wisconsin (I'm aware Dr. Stein intends to try there too).
 
Guys I know this is totally irelevant but this story has made me look into Jill Stein's political stance for the first time, and to be honest i''m shocked. I was given the impression thay she was a looney from her stance against vaccinations (which apparently she is not true) and the whole wifi waves thing (which from what I read she demanded more studies into after being asked about it by an audience member). I really found a lot of what she has to says is incredibly in line with what Bernie was offering. Now this was a quick brush thru so pardon my ignorance and if anyone here can offer me a bit of a more detailed explanation on why Jill was branded a bit crazy i'de really appreciate it. Thought i'de save us a new political thread.

Whatever she feels personally, that doesn't change that The Green Party platform is a nightmare of anti-science California Mommy Bus garbage that would sadly not bite its proponents in the ass before leaving millions dying of starvation and disease. Well, I mean except for Congress of course.
 
I can't believe this is our president-elect. I know he will be our president, but even though the election is over he has literally done nothing to try to mend the division in our country and is instead doing exactly the opposite. It's unprecedented for our modern time. People thought Obama was given a hard time after he was elected, but Trump ain't seen nothin' yet if he continues to be so deliberately antagonistic towards half the country.

You know what? Let's give him hell.
Trump's temperament and accepted divisiveness just makes me wish Obama knew then that he could have just been real with us this whole time.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
This is really stupid, they'd need to overturn more than one state for this to work. Aside from that, this makes Liberals come off as sore losers. If any state should be recounted it's Michigan, not Wisconsin (I'm aware Dr. Stein intends to try there too).
It's not about changing results at all. It is about using the recounts to do what they were designed to do; to ensure all of the votes are accounted for.
 
If neither candidate gets to 270, it goes to the candidate with a majority EC votes.

This is not true. If no candidate for President gets 270 electoral votes, the election is thrown into the House. If the same happens for the Vice President, that election is thrown into the Senate.

The only thing it does to change the calculus is mean Hillary has to win by getting to 270, because if the House is given the option, they will pick Trump.
 

Figboy79

Aftershock LA
Personally, the way I feel about the whole thing is that we had a chance to stop Donald J. Trump from becoming President of the United States. That time was November 8th, 2016, but we apparently couldn't be arsed to do it, so now he will become our President.

While I understand the frustration and disappointment, I mean, this could have been stopped. Had people bothered to get out and vote, so now I'm like, "Let Rome fucking burn." As a black man born, raised, and living in the United States of America, I can't say I've ever felt like this place was my home. I've never been made to feel like I belong, and this election was just a reminder that the issues that plague minorities and other marginalized communities (ie, the LGBTQ community), aren't important enough to stop a fascist demagogue from running the country. The fact that the lives of the aforementioned marginalized groups are about to get a lot worse wasn't a deal-breaker. In the end, November 8th, 2016, just served as a reminder that, when it really came down to it, the "liberals" were just as okay with the status quo for the white majority as the "conservatives."

Oh well. It was a pretty good 8 years for the most part. While I'm very concerned for my fellow minorities, the LGBTQ community, Muslims, and everyone else about to be reamed by President Trump and his toxic policies, I do have to say I'm lingering somewhere around "ANGER," and kind of want to see the whole thing burn down.

Jill Stein is just posturing right now. She's trying to save face, and she's trying to avoid being spoken about in the same breath as Ralph Nader.

If the recounts soothes some anxiety and quiets the conspiracy theories, fine. Okay. But like I said, we had a chance to stop President Trump, but we couldn't be bothered to do the bare minimum, so here we are. Reap what you fucking sow, America. Peace.
 

OuterLimits

Member
Wait is Pennsylvania even being considered
seriously this is turning pretty wacko and trumps not to blame for a change

I can understand Michigan since it was 10,700 votes. Although Michigan just spent 2 weeks going over the votes anyway since it was close.

Wisconsin was 22k so still kind of close, but unlikely a recount would change much.

Pennsylvania though was a 68k difference so a recount there seems ridiculous.

Hillary won some states with a much smaller vote margin than that. Nevada she won by 26k, Minnesota by 42k, and New Hamphshire by only 2,700 votes.
 
Wisconsin said 2 weeks

All 3 states have to file by the 13th or the House can throw their votes out. This is Federal Law.

Pennsylvania's probably going to tell Stein/Clinton to pound sand because of how impossible it'd be to do a recount, let alone in 2 weeks. We're talking 27,000 volunteers PER party to help monitor recounts on top of however many election officials, lawyers, etc. Not to mention having to Challenge in each of the state's 83 districts and 9000+ districts. Good lord. It'd take 6 months. But I guess that's why those machines were made and are still used. To prevent recounts. Oh, and they'd have to prove there was statewide systematic fraud in each of these 9000 precincts as well. Good fucking luck.

http://billypenn.com/2016/11/23/a-p...llary-clinton-a-nightmare-scenario-explained/

That is the definition of insanity.

How is PA an acceptable system voting? This is ridiculous.

Hopefully a lawsuit is brought up against PA and their fraud voting system. I bet them not being able to do a recount will trigger it.
 

msdstc

Incredibly Naive
This is why you always should verify claims you read online (especially in an echo chamber message board). It's politics. People constantly make up lies about the competition. The anti-vaccination lie is easily disproven, but if enough people repeat a lie on the Internet, it becomes "true," even though it's actually not.

Uhh no her statements on vaccinations make it pretty clear she's at the very least skeptical although she acknowledges they're crucial. She's a nut though there's no questioning that. Just take a quick peak through her Twitter right now that's all it takes.

the point of the recount is not to reverse the results of Election night,

the point is to address the disparity between pencil/paper ballots versus electronic ballots

For the millionth time this "disparity" has been cleared up already by all sorts of pundits.
 
Like it or not, this does make the dems (and Jill Stein) look like sore losers to the average person and I don't blame them for building it up like this. It's truly ridiculous. Very few of those taking up for it now would be taking up for it if the tables were turned. They were already setting the stage to do the opposite before Trump won.

The problem you're facing is that if this statement is true, there's no reason (or solid path) for us to remain a united republic anymore. If we've reached the point where both sides aren't even willing to agree what is and is not acceptable under the rules and throw out any attempt at oversight or transparency when it's bad for their "team", there's no going back from that to a coalition government or a united federal state.

So, you'd better hope you're off the mark.
 

msdstc

Incredibly Naive
The problem you're facing is that if this statement is true, there's no reason (or solid path) for us to remain a united republic anymore. If we've reached the point where both sides aren't even willing to agree what is and is not acceptable under the rules and throw out any attempt at oversight or transparency when it's bad for their "team", there's no going back from that to a coalition government or a united federal state.

So, you'd better hope you're off the mark.

He's right at the very least on the tables turned bit. There's no doubt if somebody called for a recount when hillary had won, the reaction here would be very different.
 

Kathian

Banned
I don't get any if this. If the Dems were fighting it would make sense. Strikes me this is just to get her name known by the Left and advertise herself. Democrats would do best to keep back. The claims are already discredited; if anything this is just further sign that fake news is quite a big thing.

Trump won key states. Clinton failed to sell herself to an important segment of the electorate. And the minority parties remain minority parties even when up against two major Marmite characters.
 
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