I'm about 95% sure it'll be Jeb vs. Hilary.
CNN Poll: Trump Surging in Iowa
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I'm about 95% sure it'll be Jeb vs. Hilary.
Fivethirtyeight is such a good site
But I am not saying it from a perspective of the polls holding weight, rather it seems like Hilary might implode on herself and Republicans have been imploding for the past few years. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up happening.
Team Alucard
Banned
Hillary has been a major public figure for over 2 decades, and she has never imploded before, why do people think she suddenly will now? Especially when she's probably hungrier than she's ever been (This is her absolute last chance at becoming POTUS).
The e-mail stuff is just another manufactured scandal like benghazi that no-one outside of the right-wing echo chamber cares about.
The e-mail stuff is just another manufactured scandal like benghazi that no-one outside of the right-wing echo chamber cares about.
AstroNut325
Member
He is a more rational choice than just about any other Republican. He is one of the least insane.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Bush, Walker, and Rubio (the three "serious" candidates) are polling behind Trump right now. Combined.
Even if one of those guys gets the nod it's going to be an ugly process. My personal bet is Trump goes to the convention with a plurality of delegate support, the RNC screws him over by nominating Bush instead, Trump runs as a third party and all hell breaks loose.
Even if one of those guys gets the nod it's going to be an ugly process. My personal bet is Trump goes to the convention with a plurality of delegate support, the RNC screws him over by nominating Bush instead, Trump runs as a third party and all hell breaks loose.
Not even that, she has Obama's campaign apparatus behind her.
She just isn't spending a lot of resources right now because she doesn't need to. She can afford to wait until after the off-year elections.
They raise some legit points. Can he keep his lead for 6 months, let alone 1 year? Is he nearing his speak or has he just gotten started in the curve? All remains to be seen. I'm not sure we can all it eitherway but one thing is for sure, Trump has been defying odds/predictions since over a month now. Nothing the media or press predicted about him so far has come true.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
More schadenfreude for me. He's basically the Colbert report on human form, without the irony or sarcasm.
And_Gignac
Member
lol Bush crashing and burning.
Current state of his donors:
Current state of his donors:
bodyboarder
Member
People who don't live in America.
BoboBrazil
Member
Trump just says how the rest of the Republicans feel. He's just honest about it. I'd take him as the non over any of those other guys.
gutter_trash
Banned
I hope Trumps wins so we could put an end to the Religious Right and just call it the Right without God nutters
The insane thing is that this "insane lunatic" is an infinitely better option than the guy at least 47% of the country will vote for on the Republican ticket.
But we can dream.
speculawyer
Member
I don't understand how Ben Carson is in second. The man may be a great surgeon. But he's a crazy theocratic nut.
On second thought, I do understand why Ben Carson is in second in an Iowa GOP caucus.
On second thought, I do understand why Ben Carson is in second in an Iowa GOP caucus.
speculawyer
Member
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Carson seems to have a weird appeal in Iowa, but only Iowa. Elsewhere he's lost somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Honestly, out of all the GOP choices, he's the least nuts. I don't agree with him on pretty much anything, but at least it's pretty damn obvious where he stands with things.
I absolutely, positively don't want a Republican anywhere near the White House, ever. However, if I had to pick one, it would probably be Trump, just because he wouldn't send us barreling down the road to a Christian theocracy like all the other members of the clown car would.
Sanders vs Trump would be an epic battle - a fight between support for pure, unfettered capitalism versus very progressive democratic socialism. It's all moot though - I suspect it will be Rubio/Clinton or Bush/Clinton on the ballot when the time comes.
Manmademan
Member
Here's the thing- there's no one really in a position to take it from him.
Last election, there was a parade of clowns with Mitt Romney as the sensible one with all of the PACs and establishment backing- and even then Mitt had to outspend Santorum 12 to 1 in places like michigan to put a nail in that coffin. Had Santorum been equally well funded that primary would have gone the distance. No one is in a position this time where they are VASTLY better funded than everyone else by leaps and bounds.
Speaking of funds, Trump *could* fund his own campaign through the primaries, if he chose to. His personal wealth eclipses everyone else by quite a bit, so even if every superpac under the sun decided not to bother with him (unlikely), and he did ZERO grassroots fundraising (also unlikely) money issues on their own wouldn't knock him out. Look at where rick perry is right now, having to lay off staff because the campaign is broke. This won't and can't happen to Trump. If he wants to stay in, he stays in.
From a charisma standpoint, Trump clearly has this. no one else is really close. Mitt Romney's achilles heel is that when it came down to it he was boring as dry white toast, and awkward as hell when giving a speech. Everyone else from Gingrich to Bachmann to Cain had the ability to fire up a crowd where Mitt didn't. Again, that's not the case here- in fact the opposite is true. Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Scott Walker were literally boring the crowd to death up there and that's his best competition. Ironically Chris Christie is the best one who could go head to head with him, but his base all abandoned him to run to trump.
Trump is running oratorical rings around literally everyone. The rest of the candidates with the exception of Rand Paul who is totally desperate were scared to death to mix it up with Trump in a debate. And it didn't go so well for Rand Paul. And this is a Trump that was literally speaking complete nonsense. If he actually bothered to put together a comprehensive position on anything it would be utter destruction. The press conference from the other day shows that Trump knows exactly how to work a crowd and say the right things when he wants to. He's not an idiot but is very good at playing one on TV.
Finally- Herman Cain was cruising along until a parade of sex scandals sank his campaign. This isn't likely to happen to Trump. His dirty laundry is already out in the open, the skeletons are all public. The most you could hope for is that he says something so out of bounds that the crowd turns on him en masse- but at this point that "something" doesn't seem to exist. He can insult war veterans, insult women, say he's not really into the jesus thing, nothing seems to matter. Unless he lights a baby on fire and eats it on camera there doesn't appear to be a "too outrageous" button. The more he "speaks whats on his mind" the more his appeal goes up.
The only thing that will sink Trump, is Trump, and that appears to be in a "gets bored and calls the whole thing off" way, rather than "trump finally goes too far!" or "has a massive scandal!" way.
Captain Tuttle
Member
He will do what Romney did; sit back and enjoy the shit show with the rest of us. When the smoke clears he'll be the nominee.
The GOP has a real problem with it's base though, it's really tainting the brand.
Ehh, he was polling behind Trump, Jeb and Walker before the debate and seems to have gotten a pretty consistent bump in every poll since.
The guy was one of the few to not crumble in polling after Trump surged.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Funny part is that I think Trump is the most sane and reasonable candidate among them. There are parts I actually agree with him in his platform.
I still think Rubio will rise more and more after each debate. He was really strong in the first debate and didn't appear to be batshit crazy. At some point, the Bush backers could flip to Rubio as well, which would provide him with funds for the long haul.
Trump is entertaining and he has done a great job at attracting a lot of attention this early in the process. All the lesser known candidates who have actual policies to stand on should be ecstatic that Trump is in the race. Trump gets everyone more exposure than they would have had, while not having a strong enough platform to actually beat them come voting time.
Trump is entertaining and he has done a great job at attracting a lot of attention this early in the process. All the lesser known candidates who have actual policies to stand on should be ecstatic that Trump is in the race. Trump gets everyone more exposure than they would have had, while not having a strong enough platform to actually beat them come voting time.
quickwhips
Member
I care. I believe in the FOIA. Its important to be transparent.
speculawyer
Member
Well yesterday he gave a speech going hard on Iraq. A third Bush v. Iraq war would certainly be popular right? I mean Hollywood does sequels all the time for a reason, right? This will be just like Godfather 3 or Alien 3.
Crimson_Gold
Member
This sounds terrible. At least you didn't say alien resurrection. That would mean the end of days is upon us.
I care and for president I've voted Obama, Obama, Kerry, Gore. She either did it for her own gain or out of serious lack of common sense understanding about technology and the need for security. Either one is not good.
TheSaddestSort
Member
The Republican party is trapped in a nightmare of its own making.
dr3upmushroom
Banned
It's the ultimate Babyface vs Cocky Heel match.
Crimson_Gold
Member
He earned his name. Don't you forget it
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Romney was always in first or second place pretty much so I don't think the comparisons are that close though.
Jeb is a terrible politician, terrible speaker, just not intelligent, and has allied himself way too much with W's people. If a guy is going to come back from his awful poll numbers, it's going to be Rubio.
gutter_trash
Banned
pretty much this.
The rest of the GOP candidates are neo-con chicken hawks, religious nutters, socio-conservative anti-abortion nutters and so on.
Trump is the most "moderate" out of that clown car.
Yes he said inflammatory comments but his past opinions from the 80s and 90s reveal that he has a progressive bone hidden under that heap of bullshit that covers him,
Jeb Bush may talk softly but the guy is just a continuation of the Bush dynasty wanting to profit off more wars
Trump is the "lesser" evil out of those GOP candidates
Also sounding more and more like the emails were reclassified at a later time and possibly inaccurately. Im on team Sanders btw, but watching the Republicans dance around this is irritating, like hearing Jeb Bush pinning the Iraq disaster and the isis phenomenon on Obama, you know instead of his own family and their friends the Bin Ladens.
It's genuinely astonishing.
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
None in that cast of idiots have a real chance of being President unless Hillary Clinton dies or it is revealed that she once had an affair with Osama Bin Laden.
I wouldn't say I'm nonchalant but I'm enjoying the show. Trump is shitting on the GOP and the infighting he has created will do nothing good for the chances of the eventual nominee.
I dunno, their electoral math is so fragile they might actually thinkthey have a better chance with him, if he makes it that far. Last night the man pointed to the Great Wall of China as proof his wall idea is sensible.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
I will take that compared to the rest of them talking about god.
Maninthemirror
Banned
Place your bets . When trump becomes the president, he will become a democrat in the first day of office. Manchurian candidate
They aren't just inflammatory, they are deeply racist and mysoginistic, meaning he despises the vast majority of people in the country he claims he wants to run, to stroke his magnificent ego.
I think this too, and I'm sure the other lobbyists/candidates are just patiently waiting for something like this to happen. Trump might stump the Trump.
EatinOlives
Member
I do wonder if people saying "he's the least insane, he says what he thinks" in this thread would be saying the same thing if he had make similarly disparaging remarks about black people instead of Mexicans.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
And the rest of them do that under the banner of god for their justification. At least he's up front about it.
Mr. Giggles
Member
Ooooooo sanders vs trump!!! I can see it now
Let's get it on!!!!
Let's get it on!!!!
Say he is truly a racist and misogynistic and hates many groups of people but enacts universal healthcare (lol), keeps planned parenthood funding and abortion as is - would it be worse than a Scott Walker who doesn't say that stuff out loud but is willing defund everything and let a woman die so a fetus can maybe be born?
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