For Lonestar and anyone interested in the AU v. UGA game this weekend:
I think Auburn stands a really good chance in this game. While Georgia has one of the top rushing defenses in the SEC in terms of rushing yards given up, they are in the bottom third of the SEC in terms of rushing touchdowns allowed with 17. All 17 of these rushing touchdowns came in either SEC play or their game against Clemson.
I went through all of Georgia's games against SEC opponents + Clemson, removed their statistics against Georgia from the equation, and compared the rushing yards and touchdowns that Georgia allowed to their opponents average yards and touchdowns against other opponents.
Georgia has only held their opponents significantly below their season average in rushing three times this year(^1), but two of those occasions have come in big games for the Dawgs: Missouri (104 yards below their average), LSU (120 yards below their average), and Vandy (23 yards below their average). Conversely, Georgia has not allowed any team it has faced to grossly exceed its average rushing yards per game, with only South Carolina (28 yards or ~114% above their average) and Clemson (24 yards or ~114% above their average) exceeding their average rushing yards against other opponents by 10% in the Georgia game.
While Georgia is holding opponents to 85% of their average rushing yardage, they are also allowing their opponents to score ~11% more rushing TDs than their average (2.43 compared to 2.18). Georgia has only held their opponent below their average in rushing touchdowns twice this season: LSU (allowing 2 TDs to a rushing attack averaging 3) and Clemson (allowing 2 TDs to a rushing attack averaging 2.22). Georgia's opponents have significantly exceeded their average in rushing TDs in four games so far: Missouri (giving up 3 TDs to a rushing attack averaging 2.56), Tennessee (giving up 2 TDs to a rushing attack averaging 1.44), Florida (giving up 2 TDs to a rushing attack averaging 1.25), and Vandy (giving up 4 TDs to a rushing attack averaging 2.88).
I did the same for Auburn's rushing attack. Auburn's opponents (sans Ark. State, W. Carolina, and FAU), have averaged giving up 1.62 rushing TDs per game. Auburn has averaged scoring 3.00 TDs against them, which exceeds their opponents average by 1.37 TDs per game. Only Mississippi State has had any success in holding Auburn below their average in either TDs (0 vs. 3.00) or yards (120 vs. ~281).
I think Auburn has a good chance of rushing for between 240 yards and 325 yards (their average +/- 15%) and scoring 3-4 rushing TDs. I'm not sure that this will be enough to beat Georgia, so either the special teams will have to put up some points or Marshall will have to connect with Coates for a score or two to beat the Dawgs.
^1 Georgia also limited Florida to ~1 yard below its season average, by holding Florida to 145 yards against its average of 146.