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Covid 19 Thread: [no bitching about masks of Fauci edition]

D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
What else would you say is the reason? We unlocked completely on July 19th. Delta is highly infectious and highly transmissible. Yet with no lockdown measures, our R rate has started falling, as our vaccination rates continue to escalate (78% of all adults vaccinated). We’ve had multiple large scale mass gatherings, full freedom of movement, and a completely open nation for weeks now. And yet cases have stabilised and the R Rate has fallen. Against, as I say, the most virulent strain of the virus so far. What else is the explanation?

What caused the previous waves to decline when vaccination was low or non-existent? What caused India's Delta wave to plummet despite sub-5% vaccination?

As soon as people stop pumping hydroxychloroquine and that other drug as effective/alternatives to vaccination, sure.

Tell that to the people promoting it then and maybe stop lumping everyone together?
 
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RAÏSanÏa

Member
It's not true that vaccinated people have nothing to fear. That assumption has led to some confusion.

There's a greatly reduced chance of developing covid, symptoms or death from exposure if vaccinated.

Always lots of personal and circumstantial to consider for making a risk assessment.



My state is a shithole.

Holy fuck. Literally out of control.

If a variant does come from the area it might get colloquially named The Blip if it wipes out the unvaxxed and a percentage of the vaxxed.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Jesus. That’s not far off the total UK infection rate, in a nation of 65 million, as opposed to a state of 21 million.

The UK peaked at 54,000 cases in a single day (80% of the previous peak). If you want to do the population adjustment thing, that would be the same as 250,000 cases per day in the US, since our population is approx. 5x. I imagine that's probably about where our Delta wave will peak out, since that's also about 80% of our previous peak of 300k~ per day.
 
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Thaedolus

Member
Heres the thing, it doesnt have to be one or the other. Both should be considered effective tools. This whole idea that covid is some magical virus that conventional drugs are ineffective against, is lunacy. Problem for Big Pharma is, they cant distribute their vaccine with EUA if there is a viable alternative treatment. Hence why they will not even entertain an alternative treatment. Guess why regeneron is allowed? Because it makes them fucking money

They shouldn’t be considered effective tools because the data don’t show them to be effective tools and they have demonstrable risk. It’s insane that anyone would consider the vaccines to be too risky and push hydroxi
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
They shouldn’t be considered effective tools because the data don’t show them to be effective tools and they have demonstrable risk. It’s insane that anyone would consider the vaccines to be too risky and push hydroxi

I have no intention of pushing hydroxi or ivermectin or whatever until we know more, but there are clear incentives to not know more about them at this point in the game.

$155 million for a clinical trial to study repurposed drugs:

vs. $3 billion for research into new drugs:

We'll see what happens once Pfizer and Moderna get full FDA approval. If we suddenly start seeing breakthrough discoveries in the prophylaxis and therapy arena, then, well, yeah...
 
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caffeware

Banned

Doctors on the industry networking site Doximity are finding their news feed inundated with anti-vaccine comments from fellow physicians.

Malarik read directly from several comments posted by people with the initials M.D. or D.O., which indicates doctor of osteopathic medicine, after their names. There’s no anonymity on the site, so everyone is identified. In the posts, they refer to the vaccines as experimental, unproven or deadly and occasionally write “Fauxi” when talking about Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House chief medical advisor.

It’s not an outlier. Dozens of screenshots and descriptions of posts shared with CNBC by other doctors were consistent with Malarik’s experience. Articles about vaccines or masks have hundreds of comments, many that are factually inaccurate and often based on conspiracy theories, while stories on less politically divisive topics have just a few comments, if any at all.

 
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D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Report #20 (data through 2nd of August) from England is now out.


Item
Delta Cases
1-Dose Cases
2-Dose Cases
Unvaccinated Cases
Total Delta Deaths
1-Dose Deaths
2-Dose Deaths
Unvaccinated Deaths
Report 16
60624​
13555​
4087​
35521​
73​
11​
26​
34​
Report 17
92029​
19957​
7235​
53822​
109​
18​
50​
38​
Report 18
123620​
26495​
10834​
71932​
257​
45​
118​
92​
Report 19
229218​
54091​
28773​
121402​
460​
65​
224​
165​
Report 20
300010​
70107​
47008​
151054​
742​
79​
402​
253​
<50 Totals
265749​
64271​
25536​
147612​
71​
8​
13​
48​
>50 Totals
33736​
5835​
21472​
3440​
670​
71​
389​
205​
<50 Rate
88.58%​
24.18%​
9.61%​
55.55%​
9.57%​
11.27%​
18.31%​
67.61%​
>50 Rate
11.24%​
17.30%​
63.65%​
10.20%​
90.30%​
10.60%​
58.06%​
30.60%​
Increase
70792​
16016​
18235​
29652​
282​
14​
178​
88​
Increase %
31%​
30%​
63%​
24%​
61%​
22%​
79%​
53%​

As expected from early symptom reporting app data, the vaccinated cases and deaths continue to rise at a higher rate than the unvaccinated, but overall England is on its way out of this wave. Remember that this is just looking at those who had emergency care attendance (including those who visited a hospital but did not stay overnight), so the actual number of infections and community spread is obviously going to be a lot higher, especially if the vaccinated are less likely to exhibit serious symptoms.

Some other data:
  • Of those <50 and fully vaccinated, 25,536 received emergency care and 13 died, or 0.05091%.
  • Of those <50 and unvaccinated, 147,612 received emergency care and 48 died, or 0.03252%.
  • Of those >50 and fully vaccinated, 21,472 received emergency care and 389 died, or 1.81166%.
  • Of those >50 and unvaccinated, 3,440 received emergency care and 205 died, or 5.95930%.
Also of note from the presentation materials that backs up what the CDC was hinting at the other day:

I got curious about what kind of population sizes we were dealing with and looked up England's population by age as well as vaccinations by age and did a bit more analysis, which I will share here for anyone curious.

Here are my calculations, but please correct me if I'm doing something dumb:

---
Age GroupEngland Population1+ Dose Group Size2 Dose Group SizeOnly 1 Dose SizeUnvaccinated Group Size
<5035,243,29818,702,24112,125,4846,576,75716,541,057
>5021,043,66320,383,79919,830,464553,335659,864
---

Now here are the cases and deaths of those who were attended to at emergency care (visiting a hospital, but not necessarily staying over night):

---
Delta Cases1-Dose Cases2-Dose CasesUnvaccinated CasesTotal Delta Deaths1-Dose Deaths2-Dose DeathsUnvaccinated Deaths
<50 Totals265,74964,27125,536147,6127181348
>50 Totals33,7365,83521,4723,44067071389205
<50 % of Group24.18485%9.60907%55.54565%0.02672%0.01245%0.05091%0.03252%
>50 % of Group17.29606%63.64714%10.19682%1.98601%1.21680%1.81166%5.95930%
---

As you can see, in the <50 group among those that required emergency care, the death rate was basically identical (actually slightly higher in the 2-dose group as of the latest report).

And while this next one may be a bit faulty, here is the % of the populations in the first chart that required emergency care for Delta (emergency care cases / population size):

---
1 Dose Case % of Pop.2 Dose Case % of Pop.Unvaccinated Case % of Pop.
<500.97724456%0.21059778%0.89239763%
>501.05451490%0.10203547%0.52131954%
---

Again, this assumes that everyone in those populations is being exposed to the virus, so it's faulty, but still, you see that the rate of requiring emergency care among the 2-dose population is 24% of the unvaccinated population, which indicates that it is helping reduce severe symptoms.

Either way, we're talking about 71 total deaths in a population of 34.2 million (just the <50 population of England) to Delta over the course of half a year.
 

RAÏSanÏa

Member
Public health discussed that a statistical result of the increasing percentage of vaccinated people in the entire population vs the shrinking pool of unvaccinated/partial would show as this increase of vaxxed people getting sick and dying. >50 vaxx rates being substantially higher than <50 would show this effect. Which looks to be the case with 12million(out of 35m) for <50 vs 19million(out of 20m) for >50 with 2 dose.

It's not an increased vulnerability to a strain. It's a statistical result of high vaccination rates.
 

adj83

Neo Member
Public health discussed that a statistical result of the increasing percentage of vaccinated people in the entire population vs the shrinking pool of unvaccinated/partial would show as this increase of vaxxed people getting sick and dying. >50 vaxx rates being substantially higher than <50 would show this effect. Which looks to be the case with 12million(out of 35m) for <50 vs 19million(out of 20m) for >50 with 2 dose.

It's not an increased vulnerability to a strain. It's a statistical result of high vaccination rates.

Isn't this only applicable when just looking at the volumes of people requiring hospital treatment / dying, split by vaccinated or not? E.g. 100 vaccinated people being hospitalised and 75 not vaccinated being hospitalised doesn't mean the vaccine isn't working because of the high rate of vaccination.

By including the total population size, the number fully vaccinated etc. you can normalise the figures and get comparable percentages which help show how effective the vaccine is at preventing severe cases / death.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Public health discussed that a statistical result of the increasing percentage of vaccinated people in the entire population vs the shrinking pool of unvaccinated/partial would show as this increase of vaxxed people getting sick and dying. >50 vaxx rates being substantially higher than <50 would show this effect. Which looks to be the case with 12million(out of 35m) for <50 vs 19million(out of 20m) for >50 with 2 dose.

It's not an increased vulnerability to a strain. It's a statistical result of high vaccination rates.

I think I showed it in the data above, but it looks like around a 80 ~ 75% relative reduction in requiring emergency care when viewed as a rate of the entire population. Of course, this assumes that the entire population is exposed, so it's not a clean figure, but it still gives you an idea. Now, when 5% or more of those unvaccinated and >50 who end up requiring emergency care also end up dying, that can result in a significant number of deaths.

Extrapolating the figures and you can get the following hypothetical projections for Delta (assuming we started from scratch and that everyone is eventually exposed to the virus equally):

No vaccination <50: Total population of 35,243,298 --> of which 0.89% require emergency care = 314,510 --> 0.03% die = 102
Full vaccination <50: Total population of 35,243,298 --> of which 0.21% require emergency care = 74,222 --> of which 0.05% die = 38
Difference: 64

No vaccination >50: Total population of 21,043,663 --> of which 0.52% require emergency care = 109,705 --> of which 5.96% die = 6,538
Full vaccination >50: Total population of 21,043,663 --> of which 0.10% require emergency care = 21,472 --> of which 1.81% die = 389
Difference: 6,149

So, yeah, very clear high value proposition for one group vs the other.
 
Got my second shot of Pfizer today, no side effects just like last month. Glad I got it over with. Makes me feel a bit safer, considering I go to the movies twice a week (Suicide Squad in IMAX and Green Knight this weekend 🥳🥳🥳 ).

Shame this whole thing has turned into such a mess though, misinformation is spreading fast. My family has always been pretty sane, but pretty much everyone has been made paranoid through Facebook and WhatsApp, so now nobody wants to get vaccinated because apparently everyone who gets vaccinated is going to randomly die in five years.

I'm done arguing about it though, because no matter what happens and no matter how many people die, they just become more and more skeptical by the week. Their body, their choice, their problem.
 

RAÏSanÏa

Member
Isn't this only applicable when just looking at the volumes of people requiring hospital treatment / dying, split by vaccinated or not? E.g. 100 vaccinated people being hospitalised and 75 not vaccinated being hospitalised doesn't mean the vaccine isn't working because of the high rate of vaccination.

By including the total population size, the number fully vaccinated etc. you can normalise the figures and get comparable percentages which help show how effective the vaccine is at preventing severe cases / death.

That etc. on the last sentence is a big bag that takes a lot of competence and security to handle and dessiminate, but I agree.
 

Keihart

Member
It’s getting pretty close to the point where the mods need to think about shutting this thread down. It’s just one ad hominem attack after another.
And let this insanity run amok the other threads ? it think it's well contained here.
I'm kinda bias tho, because i find entertainment in reading the drama going on here between some posters sometimes.
 
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RAÏSanÏa

Member
I think I showed it in the data above, but it looks like around a 80 ~ 75% relative reduction in requiring emergency care when viewed as a rate of the entire population. Of course, this assumes that the entire population is exposed, so it's not a clean figure, but it still gives you an idea. Now, when 5% or more of those unvaccinated and >50 who end up requiring emergency care also end up dying, that can result in a significant number of deaths.

Extrapolating the figures and you can get the following hypothetical projections for Delta (assuming we started from scratch and that everyone is eventually exposed to the virus equally):

No vaccination <50: Total population of 35,243,298 --> of which 0.89% require emergency care = 314,510 --> 0.03% die = 102
Full vaccination <50: Total population of 35,243,298 --> of which 0.21% require emergency care = 74,222 --> of which 0.05% die = 38
Difference: 64

No vaccination >50: Total population of 21,043,663 --> of which 0.52% require emergency care = 109,705 --> of which 5.96% die = 6,538
Full vaccination >50: Total population of 21,043,663 --> of which 0.10% require emergency care = 21,472 --> of which 1.81% die = 389
Difference: 6,149

So, yeah, very clear high value proposition for one group vs the other.
It's well known that the oldest of >50 once ill have the lowest chances of survival despite vaccine and treatments. That should be considered.
Not up on UK news specifically, but were there any outbreaks at care homes with the loosening of restrictions that might have bumped numbers? There have been a few here and they are ongoing.
 

ntropy

Member
Y6KTiTDs.jpeg
 

FunkMiller

Member
The UK vaccination rate is what? +70%, right? So if 35% of the people being hospitalized are fully vaccinated, that would indicate decent effectiveness.

Yep. I’ve seen people trying to jump on this as a way of undermining the vaccines, but we’ve vaccinated the vast majority of our adult population. Of course a lot of hospitalised people will have been vaccinated.

The point is there aren’t that many of them.
 

RAÏSanÏa

Member
The situation in Florida being an indicator of the developing one in Alberta is troubling.

With the complete loosening of restrictions being credited to vaccine use and approval for vaccine for youngest kids months away it seems sensible to maintain or even strengthen health measures for children.
To give medical authorities funding and mandate based on previous covid measures to make sure kids are kept safe and monitored so schools and daycares can stay open with as few covid cases and restrictions as possible until they get their option for vaccine. Keep them safe on their playgrounds while the adults have fun in their spaces where small children don't attend or have an option to avoid.
 

sackings

Member
The situation in Florida being an indicator of the developing one in Alberta is troubling.

With the complete loosening of restrictions being credited to vaccine use and approval for vaccine for youngest kids months away it seems sensible to maintain or even strengthen health measures for children.
To give medical authorities funding and mandate based on previous covid measures to make sure kids are kept safe and monitored so schools and daycares can stay open with as few covid cases and restrictions as possible until they get their option for vaccine. Keep them safe on their playgrounds while the adults have fun in their spaces where small children don't attend or have an option to avoid.
Children are not at risk. Period
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member


You gotta love how fear articles use big percentage numbers when the absolute numbers aren't impressive. Total patients going from 23 in one month to 240 in the next isn't interesting. It needs to be reported as a ONE THOUSAND PERCENT INCREASE.

And then this gem they whipped up to induce panic that under 12 infections are exploding past all other age groups, even though they are the 3rd lowest out of the 8 groups in terms of absolute numbers and aren't even particularly high in proportion to their percentage of the population.

d2Rvn0d.png
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Children are not at risk. Period
That is weapons grade bullshit. Children are at a much lesser risk, but there is still some kind of risk there. There are numerous reports of Covid related deaths in children in just the last few weeks let alone the last year.


Pretending the risk to them is zero is being intentionally ignorant of the facts.
 

RAÏSanÏa

Member
Total patients going from 23 in one month to 240 in the next isn't interesting
And it should be. That's a 10x increase before they're even confined together for hours a day with children from families that don't share concerns about covid risks.

That it isn't interesting to some is inarguable and the reasons for that many. It is bizarre to see legislators behaving in that way and ignoring the already hundreds of pediatric cases in ICU from the past month and rising. Bad news on the horizon for Alberta kids if their government is following along with something similar. Different jurisdictions, different priorities.
 

BigBooper

Member
I saw this post about vaccinated breakthrough infections. I was wondering if anyone knows off-hand how reinfection rates compare vs breakthrough rates. If someone naturally had covid and recovered, are the 2nd infection rates similar to people that'd had the vaccine?

 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
I have no intention of pushing hydroxi or ivermectin or whatever until we know more, but there are clear incentives to not know more about them at this point in the game.

$155 million for a clinical trial to study repurposed drugs:

vs. $3 billion for research into new drugs:

We'll see what happens once Pfizer and Moderna get full FDA approval. If we suddenly start seeing breakthrough discoveries in the prophylaxis and therapy arena, then, well, yeah...
Seems reasonable, it costs a lot more to develop a new drug than test an existing one for a new indication. You are going to have multiple candidates for a new drug most of which will fail plus you have to set up GMP manufacturing etc. I'm sure we will see new drugs in the prophalyxis area etc, but I doubt we see anything close to a vaccine level effectiveness.
 

Porcile

Member
I finally got a Pfizer vaccine with the second shot due in a few weeks. Probably could have gotten it sooner if the world didn't suck Japan's dick so much.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
I finally got a Pfizer vaccine with the second shot due in a few weeks. Probably could have gotten it sooner if the world didn't suck Japan's dick so much.

In Japan? I thought they were still only doing people that are a bit older, or did you get it through your workplace?
 

Porcile

Member
In Japan? I thought they were still only doing people that are a bit older, or did you get it through your workplace?

Yes, through work, but maybe it's easier to get the vaccine if you're living outside of Tokyo? However, I do know some other younger people in Tokyo who have their first one scheduled for the end of the month. Those were booked through the regular system.
 
Just so we are clear about the kids. We are talking about almost 18 months of covid in the US. Out of the 75 million Americans under 18 years old, the number of deaths is approximately 350. The vast majority of that 350 had significant health complications. So while the risk may not be zero, it is extraordinarily low. There have been FAR more suicides by people in that age group in the last 18 months, and no one is trying to do very much to stop that outside of some lip service. So maybe let’s cool it on “protecting the children” by further isolating them from their peers and education.

The amount of stress and arrested development we have put on children is shameful. Maybe for adults, a mask is no big deal. But for a 7 year old, not seeing the faces of their peers and teachers is stressful, not to mention ineffective… if for no other reason than that 7 year olds can not wear masks for 8 hours a day with any cleanliness whatsoever. The idea we are doing any of this to “protect the kids” is and has always been a smokescreen. The kids are fine. They will be fine.
 
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Welp, my country is on the verge of imploding from a political, economical and social perspective due to the pandemic and the light shined at an incompetent backdoor government that is using the pandemic for nothing more than to solidify its power.

My country has become a dictatorship, slowly but surely.

Not even hyperbole, it is literally the truth.

Thanks covid.

Now I gotta move back out again once this fucking thing is over unless the government steps down.

It's either that, or idk, civil unrest like you have never seen before within the nation.
 

Jaysen

Banned
Just so we are clear about the kids. We are talking about almost 18 months of covid in the US. Out of the 75 million Americans under 18 years old, the number of deaths is approximately 350. The vast majority of that 350 had significant health complications. So while the risk may not be zero, it is extraordinarily low. There have been FAR more suicides by people in that age group in the last 18 months, and no one is trying to do very much to stop that outside of some lip service. So maybe let’s cool it on “protecting the children” by further isolating them from their peers and education.

The amount of stress and arrested development we have put on children is shameful. Maybe for adults, a mask is no big deal. But for a 7 year old, not seeing the faces of their peers and teachers is stressful, not to mention ineffective… if for no other reason than that 7 year olds can not wear masks for 8 hours a day with any cleanliness whatsoever. The idea we are doing any of this to “protect the kids” is and has always been a smokescreen. The kids are fine. They will be fine.
This is stupid considering each variant is more infectious and dangerous than the last. To children as well.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
This is stupid considering each variant is more infectious and dangerous than the last. To children as well.

Nope. You have no evidence for that. Zero.

Take a look at England who is winding down their Delta wave and previously had an Alpha wave with a wild variant wave before that. They've got daily deaths to COVID by age group for every single day here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...19-total-announced-deaths-06-August-2021.xlsx

You can look for yourself, but there have been a total of 47 deaths in the 0-19 age group in 519 days, out of a total of over 13 million people in that age group (source). 30 (64%) of those deaths took place in the 307 tracked days of 2020 and 17 of which took place in the 212 tracked days (thus far) of 2021.

Just look at it for yourself. It's quite clear that the Delta is certainly not more deadly and likely quite a bit less deadly than past variants/wild incarnation.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Except Joe didn't say that at all. He just listed a study that mentioned that vaccines that don't kill the virus outright could cause mutations.

Are all people on Twitter fucking retarded?

That kind of overblown flippant no-nuance misrepresentation doomcrying routine is very much what is done on Twitter and Reddit and other similar spheres.

edit: just checked out the guy's profile and apparently he belongs to "Pod Damn America" which is described as a "Goth Socialist Podcast," so that probably tells you all you need to know about his beliefs.

Welp, my country is on the verge of imploding from a political, economical and social perspective due to the pandemic and the light shined at an incompetent backdoor government that is using the pandemic for nothing more than to solidify its power.

My country has become a dictatorship, slowly but surely.

Not even hyperbole, it is literally the truth.

Thanks covid.

Now I gotta move back out again once this fucking thing is over unless the government steps down.

It's either that, or idk, civil unrest like you have never seen before within the nation.

I'm guessing Australia, but it says a lot about the state of things that I can't be sure!
 
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This is stupid considering each variant is more infectious and dangerous than the last. To children as well.
There’s nothing stupid about it. It’s facts. The efforts to control the pandemic have had a far greater direct impact on children than the virus itself. What I find stupid is people’s unwillingness to see this when it’s completely obvious to anyone who looks at the numbers even briefly. Kids aren’t in exceptional danger from covid. We have caused them far more damage psychological and socially trying to “save” them than covid itself.
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
Can you point me to where you read that, please? It’s a hopelessly stupid strategy. Always has been. But they fucked up vaccine procurement so badly, they've had no other choice. Scotty From Marketing strikes again.
It was mentioned on the French channel LCI yesterday citing directly Gladys.
There’s nothing stupid about it. It’s facts. The efforts to control the pandemic have had a far greater direct impact on children than the virus itself. What I find stupid is people’s unwillingness to see this when it’s completely obvious to anyone who looks at the numbers even briefly. Kids aren’t in exceptional danger from covid. We have caused them far more damage psychological and socially trying to “save” them than covid itself.
I agree, and this is one of the things I am happy France did, with keeping schools open as long as possible. It also shows how incompetent WHO is by insisting on keeping school open ina communiqué a few weeks ago - where were they in 2020?
 
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FunkMiller

Member
Except Joe didn't say that at all. He just listed a study that mentioned that vaccines that don't kill the virus outright could cause mutations.

Are all people on Twitter fucking retarded?

About as retarded as anyone who informs their decision about Covid on what someone like Joe Rogan says (great at BJJ, terrible at epidemiology), whatever he says.
 
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