I've been putting some thought into this (since I have to admit I've kind of put all my eggs in one basket by now), but if Crab is hope I'm pretty lost. I guess it doesn't clear Terra but apart from that I wouldn't know who the hell to point to next.
Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It
- Thread starter LaunchpadMcQ
- Start date
I see it as being a neutral role as depending on how it is used it can benefit either side but then you can say that about most roles. Thematically it makes sense as a Hope role and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Despair variant of it. As you say, Despair wouldn't use it D2 unless they were really confidant that they could get their target lynched. That reason alone makes me consider voting Crab.
I don't think this is the last time we see this happen. Kgtrep said something at some point that made it sound like he might be able to do it again at some point.
CornBurrito
Member
The way I see it, Crab is going to win the duel today.
If he is Despair, we've already lost.
If he is Hope, well maybe I'll jump on the "let him lead" bandwagon and just let him call the shots without contesting anything anymore. Because yeah I'm at a loss too.
Though I do have a few other suspects in mind.
Honestly? Everything is a weird mess and I'm still sifting through it all trying to find anything to cling on to. I agree using the power now might have been a waste and is detrimental to Town because it narrows our focus of Day 2 around only 2 people instead of the whole group. I'm leaning on the power itself being Hope-aligned only because if this is a Despair play it is INCREDIBLY risky and would give the Mafia a 50% chance of being lynched which is something that seems too much given the odds. Which is also why I'm not instantly jumping on the 'kill Crab' train because many of the arguments assume that he went for false Hope Leader and, which I have said earlier, is REALLY risky and has a really high chance of getting yourself caught in mid-to-late game. So unless the Mafia really like to play a high-risk-high-rewards game, both Kg and Crab are Hope and it will ultimately come down to who do we want to keep around.
As for suspicions, after Fran was killed I had to rethink a lot of my could-be-Mafia list and I'm still narrowing things down and changing things. For a while CzarTim, SalvaPot, Terra, and a few others were prominent on my list but after the Day 2 posts my thoughts have changed. Nothing concrete, but my suspicions have changed for sure.
CornBurrito
Member
Saying and repeating this lie doesn't make it true. I really wish people would stop it with this shit. Nothing forces us to focus only on kgtrep and Crab today. We can discuss multiple things at once. And just because we can't threaten people with votes on D2 doesn't mean we can't threaten people.
Ever since the Day started we have been heavily focusing on Crab and Kg, something that would not have happened if Kg hadn't have used his ability. 100% of the discussion has not been locked to them and nothing has stopped us from talking about others but everything eventually comes back to those two. And while we can threaten people without a vote, if there was one thing I learned from Day 1 is that a vote is the best way to get a person's attention and without it there isn't a lot of threat you can really place on someone.
CornBurrito
Member
I'm voting for you D3. Boom.
Zippedpinhead
Member
The more I think about it, and this leads into your thoughts, if this was a despair power then the only time to use it would be night 1/day 2. By challenging night 1, you can target someone who is very vocal, AND claim hope without issue. Because most of us would assume a role like this was hope. This would also give you leeway if a similar power got used later, you could point and say " I got the hope version, that other person they got the despair version you should vote for them"
Still very risky, but if this was a despair power today was the only day that made sense...
CornBurrito
Member
If this was a Despair power it would make sense to use it precisely never, or if you could 100% snag someone that everyone in Town already distrusted and wanted out anyway.
Despair gambling a 50/50 of losing one of their own is fucking terribly dumb.
The only way to justify it as Despair is if you think Despair are morons, or if the role forces kgtrep to use it. Which seems like a pretty lame Despair handicap.
But that's no where near as concrete as an actual highlighted vote. And with the way this game moves and how things can change, a threat to vote on a different Day doesn't hold as much weight. For example, we haven't heard much from a lot of players today and I can threaten to vote for them on Day 3 but it wouldn't get them to talk today. They wouldn't have to worry until Day 3.
No I was thinking that as well while talking with Corn. Kg's ability takes away the one power Town has: their ability to vote. If you looked at it that way it would inherently make it a Despair role as it is detrimental to Town by taking away our power to threaten people which gets information and, in turn, allows us to make more calculated lynch targets.
or there can be 2 versions of this power; one Despair and one Hope. My gut tells me there is only 1 person with this power given how powerful it is but it's only a gut feeling.
But Crab playing false Hope Leader isn't dumb??
to me that seems just as risky as Kg being Despair as both actions lead to them being discovered eventually.
Zippedpinhead
Member
That's the risk, if you can convince us that both players are hope by this power. Then essentially you have one player set to cruise to the end of the game. As long as you never have them submit the night time punishment, No one will investigate them, And no one will ever see them as a threat until all the other despair are dead.
CornBurrito
Member
Normally yes. But if Crab is Despair, it is working because he has most of us around his thumb inadvertently or not.
And I think there's a difference between that strategy and using this power.
A False Hope Leader strategy can win the game. It is high risk high reward.
Kgtrep being Despair and using this power D2 in this way is high risk low reward. Best case they eliminate Crab who some of us don't even trust anyway. Yeah, making Hope more cohesive potentially is worse than low reward.
CornBurrito
Member
I say I'll vote for you D3 and you won't talk until D3 actually rolls around? Why are you purposefully wasting time and dragging things out? The more we get done on D2 the more we get done on D3. Anyone who refuses to talk about anything other than kgtrep/Crab today is obviously Despair or incompetent.
Barrylocke
Member
Another "Here's my thoughts before I spirit away post", it's the one I said I had for Terrabyte. I may have to see where I stand with the next season to see where I stand.
The one thing I think is interesting is the idea that killing Crab solely because of being a distraction is a good idea. I think that as more pressing things happen, Hope will have to address those things, so to kill Crab solely because of distractions makes little sense. Beyond that though, he's mostly seemed very townish, wanting to foster discussion, and hoping to turn us away from the KK troubles.
The one thing I think is interesting is the idea that killing Crab solely because of being a distraction is a good idea. I think that as more pressing things happen, Hope will have to address those things, so to kill Crab solely because of distractions makes little sense. Beyond that though, he's mostly seemed very townish, wanting to foster discussion, and hoping to turn us away from the KK troubles.
CornBurrito
Member
Adding on to this. Anyone who refuses to talk on D2 should also be looked at with the highest amount of suspicion. I'm treating anyone who just votes today and gives minimal input as a Despair.
Nah, I've consistently said that I can use my PR only once in the game. Even if I could a second time, I wouldn't. I have my own thesis to work on.
I'd gladly accept your vote. I really appreciate how you defended me this week. You will have my back if I make it to Day 3.
I would disagree. If I had posted my case on Day 2 without using PR on Night 1, there would be chance that some of you may ignore it, since we would be free to vote for whomever we wish.
If I used my PR on Night 2 but died on that night, my PR would have been useless. If I lived through Day 3 and my PR activates, however, some of you may think that I am being petty for not being able to gather votes to lynch Crab on Day 2, and decide to lynch me right away.
CornBurrito, you too. I really appreciate your help.
Kg being Despair and using the power is not high risk low reward, it's a fairly high reward. We would knock out Crab who is one of the main people here who will point towards someone and get them to talk, we will have wasted an entire Day focusing on these two and leaving us in a very rough spot for Day 3, and it would arguably allow Despair to discover who their next target is by figuring out who might become a troublesome player later on.
Saying Kg being Despair makes no sense while also claiming Crab to be Despair makes perfect sense just doesn't fit. It's why I feel that both of them are Hope and why this situation is just a mess.
And yes, I do agree that those who say nothing or very little today will have to be looked at for Day 3 but at the moment that's a vast majority of the players in the game. I would prefer it if more people would talk and voice their opinion because those who are still quiet after 90% of us have said something are either very busy or scummy at best and need to be focused on. But I can't call people forward, I can't threaten a vote. And it sucks.
I mean the ship has sailed so there's no point in getting too angry about it, but I strongly disagree. I know your heart was in the right place, but I just can't see any way this was a pro-town move. If crab is despair, building a case against him and getting him lynched "the right way" would have provided us way more information than this. Day 2 is just as important as Day 1 in terms of gaining info. If no one had listened to you, you could have always used your ability later. If you died? I think you are discrediting the rest of your teammates, we are capable of independent thought and if we feel like crab is scummy, we'll vote for him. You don't have any info we don't even if you came to a different conclusion.
Also you shouldn't assume people are town just because they agree with you. those early quick votes on crab are weird (*cough* rest *cough*)
CornBurrito
Member
Eliminating Crab is not high reward. Even Crab himself has pointed this out. See the post where he votes for himself. There's no point to Despair using this force vote power on D2 on Crab. It isn't high reward despite you trying to spin it as such. At best it may be better than the utterly low reward I painted it as, but do you really think Despair would gamble away one of their own for that level of reward? I don't. You also say "Crab could lead us to victory" but remember that he sort of led some people to voting out Hagi yesterday. That's not really a track record that Despair should fear to the extent of using a desperate power like this.
This move also doesn't force us to only focus on those two. We can and should talk about other things. There are still other suspects. I'm getting increasingly annoyed and suspicious of people pretending that we can't talk about anything else effectively just because we cant vote.
A False Hope leader strategy is far less dumb than the usage of this power if kgtrep is Despair.
CornBurrito
Member
At this point I'm done discussing Crab/kgtrep. Unless someone has any new insight, we should all stfu about it and focus on pretending it is D3.
DING DONG DING DONG
IT IS NOW D3. Nobody died during the night. Discuss.
DING DONG DING DONG
IT IS NOW D3. Nobody died during the night. Discuss.
Does anyone remember who died yesterday? I can't find it...
Also does anyone remember that first part of D2? I know this is old news now but that was a fucking masterclass in deflection
CornBurrito
Member
Help I have a rare mental disorder where I can only be suspicious of or question people who I can directly vote for. 
I never said that at all. Also 'sort of lead' =/= lead in this case. If people are following Crab simply because of his seniority and experience in these games then that is the fault of that person for blindly following someone else and not investigating people on their own.
But seeing as it's now magically Day 3.
What's up with Fran's death? I went back and looked and he only voted for Makai ( #860 ) during the bandwagon-marathon and then voted Hagi ( #1126 ) at the end. The only person who voted for him was Corn but I feel like I wrote that down incorrectly and there was someone else who voted Fran as well. Still, seems like a weird target for the Mafia.
Also the odd silence from Rest in Day 2, we haven't heard quite a lot from TL21xx, Pau, Ty4on and suddenly both SalvaPot and AbsolutBro are now posting much more than Day 1. All little things really, but I still found them odd.
I mean, first he just attacks the people attacking him (pretty bold when people are throwing around "OMGUS" like it's going out of fashion), calling them liars for not reading his posts. Then when they respond he doesn't read their posts, and pretends to throw a tantrum until everyone feels shitty and Barry has to give a pep talk. Then no one really feels like fighting anymore so we come to some obvious conclusions (yep, fran really commited to fuck all). And now he doesn't post all day while people try not to avoid not talking about nothing except anything that isn't not related to him.
But don't worry, he'll be back later to apologise for being busy all day, and only a total dick would accuse him of lying about that.
Help I have a rare mental disorder where I can only be suspicious of or question people who I can directly vote for.
I thought being passive aggressive was Crab's thing.
CornBurrito
Member
Let's pretend that kgtrep did not use his power today. What would you discuss? Who WOULD you vote for if you weren't locked into two choices? Why?
I thought we were trying to move away from Crab?
CornBurrito
Member
Pretending kgtrep didn't use his power is functionally the same as pretending it is D3.
Everyone keeps bitching that we can only focus on kgtrep/crab because he used his power. Which is False.
So you only have a single person that you are suspicious of is what you're saying?
Yes you've said this multiple times and yet you are still talking about it. Pau gave a big list of reads and you say it wasn't enough when I haven't seen you put in much more effort. I posted my reads day one and some today (not a lot granted) and you suddenly say I haven't posted anything of value. Then you ask splinter for someone to talk about when he posted his reads on this very page.
You aren't paying attention to this game and pretending you are, so consider my d3 vote on you for real.
Zippedpinhead
Member
i probably would be trying to make more sense of franconp's death, honestly.
The last time anyone mentioned him In a read yesterday was when I gave him a town read on page 10 (21 for the 50 posters like me on .net)
He posted for hagi, then helped explaine the override joke after the day ended.
My thoughts are that he was either switched (which I would caution no one admit to) OR the despair went fishing for someone who fit the bill of "low -key day one but NOT inactive" that many power and despair roles do on day 1. I'm still looking to see if anyone cast any bad looks at franconp.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Fran was a walking ball of 'I have no clue what to think of him'... Which honestly makes him the perfect night one kill as it leaves town with as little info as possible.
CornBurrito
Member
Actually me word were that she didn't cover enough people to quell my suspicions entirely. And then I said I wanted to hear from the people she didn't mention.
I also wasn't really asking splinter himself for a read. He's already said he kind of put his eggs into one basket. I'm more talking to everyone in general.
He asked what I wanted to talk about. If I knew I wouldn't be asking other people. I've already mentioned I was suspicious a bit of Pau. I listed my reasons. I also listed that I wanted to hear from the people she didn't post a read on, and most of those people still haven't posted. So there's not much else I personally can do. Which is why I'm asking others for thoughts.
CornBurrito
Member
I also posted thoughts on franconp's death last page or two pages ago. Sorry CzarTim, my thoughts and reads are scattered but they ARE in this thread despite you not believing it to be so.
I can make a summary post for you if you want.
I can make a summary post for you if you want.
CornBurrito
Member
[m] Rest: Leaning Despair despite what Crab seems to think.
[ f ] Sawneeks: Not sure what to make of her. I know we disagree on a bunch of stuff but nothing we've disagreed on has led me to think "Despair."
[m] kgtrep: Hope. Almost positive.
[m] CornBurrito: I'm Hope.
[m] ViviOggi: Not really sure since they haven't been active much. My gut doesn't scream "Despair."
[ f ] Pau: I'm thinking Despair. Has done a very good job blending in to the crowd in my opinion. I lean Despair.
[m] *Splinter: I lean Hope. But I'm biased because Splinter has agreed with me on some stuff.
[m] Crab: As much as I wanted him to be Despair, I think he might actually be Hope.
[ f ] swamped: Vanished but she's on vacation. She was active initially but then kind of faded and let someone else take the spotlight. Not sure what to make of that. Will hold off on any gut read.
[m] Kalor: I dunno
[m] franconp: I read him as Despair because of my suspicions on Crab. I was wrong.
[m] Zippedpinhead: Really unsure. I'm not leaning towards Despair. He's been fairly active. Moreso than Pau.
[m] CzarTim: Having cooled down, I do think he may be Hope. But I'll be keeping my eye on him. Would like other people to chime in.
[m] Makai: I'm actually thinking Hope contrary to what other people are saying.
[m] SalvaPot: Not sure.
[m] AbsolutBro: People keep saying he's playing too quiet to be Despair, because he's good enough at the game to know not to do that, but...
[m] Barrylocke: Where's he even been?
[m] Terrabyte20xx: Posts occasionally. Defended Crab a lot. Though perhaps he is Despair and Crab is Hope and he's hoping to make himself seem more innocent by continuously defending Crab.
[m] kingkitty: Hope or not, I think he's generating a lot of confusion. I wouldn't mind defaulting to him if we have no good leads later on.
[m] goshujinsama: I believe Hope.
[m]Ty4on: Dunno.
[m]TL21xx: Dunno.
[ f ] Sawneeks: Not sure what to make of her. I know we disagree on a bunch of stuff but nothing we've disagreed on has led me to think "Despair."
[m] kgtrep: Hope. Almost positive.
[m] CornBurrito: I'm Hope.
[m] ViviOggi: Not really sure since they haven't been active much. My gut doesn't scream "Despair."
[ f ] Pau: I'm thinking Despair. Has done a very good job blending in to the crowd in my opinion. I lean Despair.
[m] *Splinter: I lean Hope. But I'm biased because Splinter has agreed with me on some stuff.
[m] Crab: As much as I wanted him to be Despair, I think he might actually be Hope.
[ f ] swamped: Vanished but she's on vacation. She was active initially but then kind of faded and let someone else take the spotlight. Not sure what to make of that. Will hold off on any gut read.
[m] Kalor: I dunno
[m] franconp: I read him as Despair because of my suspicions on Crab. I was wrong.
[m] Zippedpinhead: Really unsure. I'm not leaning towards Despair. He's been fairly active. Moreso than Pau.
[m] CzarTim: Having cooled down, I do think he may be Hope. But I'll be keeping my eye on him. Would like other people to chime in.
[m] Makai: I'm actually thinking Hope contrary to what other people are saying.
[m] SalvaPot: Not sure.
[m] AbsolutBro: People keep saying he's playing too quiet to be Despair, because he's good enough at the game to know not to do that, but...
[m] Barrylocke: Where's he even been?
[m] Terrabyte20xx: Posts occasionally. Defended Crab a lot. Though perhaps he is Despair and Crab is Hope and he's hoping to make himself seem more innocent by continuously defending Crab.
[m] kingkitty: Hope or not, I think he's generating a lot of confusion. I wouldn't mind defaulting to him if we have no good leads later on.
[m] goshujinsama: I believe Hope.
[m]Ty4on: Dunno.
[m]TL21xx: Dunno.
I know you've made reads, you don't need to do a summary post unless you want to.
Okay, thanks for responding. I just feel like it's weird that you keep posting "let's talk about other people" over and over again yet those posts don't have any discussion points in them. So let me ask you:
what do you think of barry, zipp, and TB?
So do we still believe Makai's role claim? He suddenly seems to be fully conviced that Crab is Despair which isn't a scummy thing per se, but iirc he was completely quiet on the issue when we were discussing it on D1. I find that a bit odd, like only now jumping on the push on him when it's as safe as it's going to get due to the duel.
[m] Rest - scum read, shutting down discussion
[ f ] Sawneeks - quiet, null tell
[m] kgtrep - town
[m] CornBurrito - null for the most part, honestly I keep going back and forth on him
[m] ViviOggi - quiet, null tell
[ f ] Pau - quiet, null tell, but hope she posts more reads because they were ok
[m] *Splinter - active, and disagree with him a lot, but leaning town
[m] Crab - leaning town but dont like how he vanished
[ f ] swamped - want to hear more from her when she gets back, started strong
[m] Kalor - quiet, null
[m] Zippedpinhead - zipp
[m] CzarTim - most town 2015
[m] Makai - scum reading
[m] SalvaPot - havent gotten a great read on him but leaning town
[m] AbsolutBro - town
[m] Barrylocke - really quiet, scum reading
[m] Terrabyte20xx - going back and forth on TB. Kind of have a funny feeling about him this game, but can't place my finger on it.
[m] kingkitty - kind of wish he'd post more after his stunt
[m] goshujinsama - quiet, null
[m]Ty4on - quiet, null
[m]TL21xx - quiet, null
[ f ] Sawneeks - quiet, null tell
[m] kgtrep - town
[m] CornBurrito - null for the most part, honestly I keep going back and forth on him
[m] ViviOggi - quiet, null tell
[ f ] Pau - quiet, null tell, but hope she posts more reads because they were ok
[m] *Splinter - active, and disagree with him a lot, but leaning town
[m] Crab - leaning town but dont like how he vanished
[ f ] swamped - want to hear more from her when she gets back, started strong
[m] Kalor - quiet, null
[m] Zippedpinhead - zipp
[m] CzarTim - most town 2015
[m] Makai - scum reading
[m] SalvaPot - havent gotten a great read on him but leaning town
[m] AbsolutBro - town
[m] Barrylocke - really quiet, scum reading
[m] Terrabyte20xx - going back and forth on TB. Kind of have a funny feeling about him this game, but can't place my finger on it.
[m] kingkitty - kind of wish he'd post more after his stunt
[m] goshujinsama - quiet, null
[m]Ty4on - quiet, null
[m]TL21xx - quiet, null
CornBurrito
Member
To be perfectly honest, I want other people to do the work for me. Which is why I keep stressing talking about other people while not talking about others in the very same post. Why put that extra effort in when others can do it?
When I get fed up enough though I do tend to make at least one read or post about some other topic. Which is why you get 5-6 posts of "lets talk about other stuff, who's first?" followed by one post actually about something else.
As for Barry, Zip, TB. You can see my review post. But I'm going to go further and actually review ALL the posts they've made in this thread. Though I think we should also focus on the people I said "dunno" to because those are often the people who have barely posted at all.