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[Pau]

This is what I don't get though, why vote for Czar at all in this scenario?

As far as we know, Despair might have known Crab was a PR, but they had no idea he was a doctor. If they wanted to kill him, they could have done it at night without Czar having to use his ability.

Instead we had a vote coming down between Czar and Sawneeks. Czar could have easily pushed a vote against Sawneeks, but instead he did the "I'll sacrifice myself" thing super early in the game. Why not push against Sawneeks (remember that Crab was pushing us to vote for Sawneeks), let Hope detain a Hope player and go on his merry way?

Instead he saves a (supposedly) Hope player, outs himself and kills Crab, netting them nothing in the end (remembering they couldn't know that Crab was a Doctor). I just don't see it. It's part of why I find Sawneeks so suspicious.

How I think it went down:

1) CzarTim posts his gamble.
2) AB bites, outs me and outs his own PR. Sleepwalker isn't the most powerful role out there, so he's not longer a priority target.
3) Ty4on and I out ourselves after some pressure. Masons/Lovers aren't that powerful either.
4) Crab starts a vote against Sawneeks, believing she must be Despair if none of the other PRs are. Doesn't roleclaim, but doesn't need to.

So two scenarios I can see:
a) If Despair didn't see *Redacted*, that leaves Crab very likely a strong PR. 50/50. Sawneeks looks like she's going to die anyways so Crab can be killed at night. In this case, Despair would definitely be voting for Sawneeks and CzarTim is still trying to survive the day and have Hope trust him for longer. Despair expects Sawneeks to be the majority vote. (If I recall it was very down to the wire!) CzarTim wins the vote instead, and Crab is chosen over Sawneeks for the kill. So CzarTim isn't saving Sawneeks as much as he's saving himself.
b) Despair doesn't want Sawneeks or CzarTim to die. CzarTim saves Sawneeks and takes Crab with him (who is even more likely now to be the strong PR.)

 

[CornBurrito]

This is what I don't get though, why vote for Czar at all in this scenario?

As far as we know, Despair might have known Crab was a PR, but they had no idea he was a doctor. If they wanted to kill him, they could have done it at night without Czar having to use his ability.

Instead we had a vote coming down between Czar and Sawneeks. Czar could have easily pushed a vote against Sawneeks, but instead he did the "I'll sacrifice myself" thing super early in the game. Why not push against Sawneeks (remember that Crab was pushing us to vote for Sawneeks), let Hope detain a Hope player and go on his merry way?

Instead he saves a (supposedly) Hope player, outs himself and kills Crab, netting them nothing in the end (remembering they couldn't know that Crab was a Doctor). I just don't see it. It's part of why I find Sawneeks so suspicious.

I do want to speculate about this. Assuming Sawneeks is Despair, Crab gave Czartim a chance to save himself at the expense of Sawneeks. He made the vote equal and told Czar to choose. Czar then voted for Sawneeks, but then a few others (I think Kalor and Vivioggi) put a few more votes on Czar and Crab got pissed and told Czar he spoke too late.

Lets say Czar was protecting Sawneeks, what Despair role could possibly be more powerful than Czartims "kill anyone you want no matter what and waste a whole day" power? We know Sawneeks isn't a Ninja at the very least.

 

[Pau]

Post 2515

Not sure I really follow his point though, like you said it was more about the gambit than proving anyone else's alignment

Thanks! For some reason it kept loading a CornBurrito post. D:

And yeah, it absolutely assumes that CzarTim can't be lying.

 

[CornBurrito]

edit: This is important. The actual vote order on that day was this

Crab forces a tie and tells Czar to decide which player will be more valuable to Hope. I think most of us believed Czar was Hope at this point.
Meanwhile I am on mobile and think Czar flip flopped. Unsure of what to do I unvote temporarily. and becomes 7-6 in Czar favor.

Terrabyte panics. Changes his vote away from Sawneeks to Rest. Causing a 7-5. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968293&postcount=2702
His post actually makes no sense. The vote was at 7-6. Terra's post implies he voted to Rest to help save Czar but this shifted the vote even further away from Czar's favor. I don't know how to interpret this post and greatly desire Terra to expand.

Crab quickly changes his vote to Sawn to reforce a tie: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968296&postcount=2703
6-6 tie.

I change my vote to Czar not realizing what is up: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968308&postcount=2704
7-6
Kalor hammers nail in coffin: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968372&postcount=2707
8-6.
Then Vivi: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968423&postcount=2711
9-6.

Before Kalor's vote, a tie could have been forced or Sawn could have been the result. Terra/Vivi/Kalor fucked up royally if they are Despair.

Makai says Czar is surely Hope. Hey, we all kind of thought that. But jesus christ he has made so many bad calls. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968450&postcount=2713
9-7.

Czar attempts to save himself:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175968591&postcount=2727
9-8!!!!

So Czar's "attempt" to save himself was actually really really late and so it is at least plausible that he did it half-assedly to increase the chances Sawneeks would survive.

But personally I struggle to think of a Despair power that would be worth trading Czartim for.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

Post 2515

Not sure I really follow his point though, like you said it was more about the gambit than proving anyone else's alignment

I'll give a couple examples of a good "kill me to prove something" execution, and a bad "kill me to prove something" execution.

In the first game (when death is on the line) Zatoth (or as he was known then Traube) faked being a drunk investigator, he "cleared" two people as town and after the group killed the serial killer we needed a jump. Our "lovers" weren't out in the open, so the group consensus was kill him, have at least two confirmed townies with only 6 people left. It turned out he was the last mafia and rejoicing was had throughout Sicily.

Then in Star Wars czartim decided for everyone that killing him was the best move, since he had played a very suspicious game and would appear as scum. The two scum and third party bounty hunter took him up on that offer and no information was gained.

At the time it looked like czartim was trying the exact same silly gambit he had the previous game. Except he had a despair override.

*history lesson over*

If the vote is close and I'm still looking likely then I will switch my vote, but it will be to save myself (because I like living), my reasons and suspicions still stand.

 

[kingkitty]

But personally I struggle to think of a Despair power that would be worth trading Czartim for.

i would say night kill immune despair...but if we don't have a serial killer/vigilante, it wouldn't make much sense. and i'm leaning that we don't because of how the night situation has played out. unless this serial killer/vigilante is saving up his or her kills for a rainy day.

 

[CornBurrito]

i would say night kill immune despair...but if we don't have a serial killer/vigilante, it wouldn't make much sense. and i'm leaning that we don't because of how the night situation has played out. unless this serial killer/vigilante is saving up his or her kills for a rainy day.

That's not a bad suggestion. But if Sawneeks is simply a night kill immune Despair why would she be seen wandering the halls so often? We know that she wasn't the N1 killer, and yet IIRC people did see her on N1. So if Despair, her role cannot simply be "immune to night kills."

 

[kingkitty]

maybe Sawneeks likes nightly walks.

 

[Sawneeks]

maybe Sawneeks likes nightly walks.

They are quite nice. It's cooler at night than it is during the day so that's an extra bonus as well and it makes the walks even nicer. o:

 

[*Splinter]

Looks like we're tied, 3 each on Zipped and Kalor. I guess I could go for either of those, would like more people to commit though. Either to one of these or by stating their case for anyone else.

90 minutes left

 

[Sawneeks]

But at the end of the day, we weren't really killing CzarTim to prove someone else's alignment... we were killing him to remove the doubt of a Despair gambit. I can't find the post you're talking about, re: Zipped not wanting to kill CzarTim.

That was CzarTim ''s whole reasoning for voting for him. He said if people didn't know if AB or Pau was the killer and if they doubted his claim they should vote for him. By lynching him and revealing his one shot cop PM it would clear AB and mean Pau was the killer. That's what it was at first anyway and a couple people found issue with this and CzarTim never really brought it up after that.

 

[Sawneeks]

Looks like we're tied, 3 each on Zipped and Kalor. I guess I could go for either of those, would like more people to commit though. Either to one of these or by stating their case for anyone else.

90 minutes left

I'm interested in the cases against Kalor as I have him as Hope in my mind. Quiet yes but he has given some good reads and theories when prodded.

 

[CornBurrito]

If it gets down to 20 minutes and nobody else has placed a tie breaking vote, I'll switch my vote from Kalor to Zipped which will get rid of the tie.

 

[Ty4on]

They are quite nice. It's cooler at night than it is during the day so that's an extra bonus as well and it makes the walks even nicer. o:

Launch will come in any second to tell you that this school has an advanced climate control that keeps the room temperature constant.

I'm interested in the cases against Kalor as I have him as Hope in my mind. Quiet yes but he has given some good reads and theories when prodded.

Kalor is resonating hope for me as well, but only just. I want him to be more active the next day if he's still alive.

 

[*Splinter]

I'm interested in the cases against Kalor as I have him as Hope in my mind. Quiet yes but he has given some good reads and theories when prodded.

For me I guess it's his invisibility, and his vote to end the day early yesterday.

It's a much softer read than Zipped though, not something I'd usually vote on.

As for other options: I'm not really confident enough to vote for any of the PRs today, but it seems likely that AB or you (Saw) are lying. I feel like I could build a case against either, but there isn't time for me to explore both right now

 

[*Splinter]

Kalor is resonating hope for me as well, but only just. I want him to be more active the next day if he's still alive.

Well how do you feel about Zipped? Or AB? Or Rest? You're vote is sitting on Kitty at the moment who I can't imagine being voted out today. Seems like you are wasting your vote without even trying to get anyone else to join it

 

[*Splinter]

Same question for you Royal? You going to leave your vote on Terra or actually try and convince us to vote him/someone else?

And Kalor? Sitting in goshu

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

I've been holding my vote off for in case of tie. To be honest, I'm having a hard time figuring out who I would vote though. Neither stick out to me more than the other.

Tentatively, I'm leaning Kalor, but I'm still wrestling in my head on voting Zipped.

 

[CornBurrito]

To be honest, I hope read Kalor too. I've said as much before.

Kalor/Royals/Pau/Typhon.

To a lesser extent I hope read Zipped but my gut says otherwise.

Voting for Kalor gives me a bit more info than voting Zipped does though. But I'm not sure if thats a smart move on my part.

Voting Kalor would let me confirm my read on Royals, and allow me to trust Rest to a greater extent.

Voting Rest wouldn't let me do much other than trust Kalor some more.

Voting Zipped may give me some evidence about Kalor/Royals.

Actually I guess I get a roughly equal amount of information.

Vote: Zippedpinhead

Sorry Zipped.

 

[Kalor]

Same question for you Royal? You going to leave your vote on Terra or actually try and convince us to vote him/someone else?

And Kalor? Sitting in goshu

I'll likely just stick with my vote for now. Since it looks like it will be between me and Zipped I'm not going to vote for them as I always feel weird about voting for someone to prevent myself from being lynched.

 

[AbsolutBro]

Zipped, fwiw I'm pretty certain you're not Despair.

Vote: Sawneeks

I know Sawneeks doesn't have any votes at the moment, and it's possible I'm falling for CzarTim's ruse all over again, but I just can't shake the feeling you're Despair. If you were Hope, Czar should have been willing to push your vote. When you didn't flip Despair he could have blamed Crab. If you flipped Despair he would have had brownie points for it. The fact that neither happened isn't really your fault, but it's the best I have.

 

[Ty4on]

Well how do you feel about Zipped? Or AB? Or Rest? You're vote is sitting on Kitty at the moment who I can't imagine being voted out today. Seems like you are wasting your vote without even trying to get anyone else to join it

So many nulls.

Zipped seems to stick out too much to be scum.
AB hasn't posted enough today, but his attitude has been much better and feels much less "scripted" than in the past. He also stated that either him or Pau's Redacted has to be the killer which, while not unprecedented for Despair, seems a bit risky.
Rest was one of the first to go against CzarTim which has me thinking silent hope there. There doesn't seem to be any reason for Despair to do it at the time as most people trusted him.

The only one I'm thinking of is Swamped, but she can't defend herself.

 

[Kalor]

On a different note I think redacted should be revealed tomorrow. The discussion of who they are took up a portion of the day and I feel like we'll be best suited if we know who they are.

 

[CornBurrito]

I'll likely just stick with my vote for now. Since it looks like it will be between me and Zipped I'm not going to vote for them as I always feel weird about voting for someone to prevent myself from being lynched.

Oh my fucking god.... I hate this self-sacrificial bullshit.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

Purely because I don't want to die

vote:kalor

 

[AbsolutBro]

On a different note I think redacted should be revealed tomorrow. The discussion of who they are took up a portion of the day and I feel like we'll be best suited if we know who they are.

(redacted) or <other>

?

 

[*Splinter]

(redacted) or <other>

?

Didn't Ty4on prove they are the same?

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Oh my fucking god.... I hate this self-sacrificial bullshit.

I'm almost tempted to vote him to test the theory that self sacrifice is a scum tell... But then that would be forcing a tie.


Eh, It's still annoying.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

I'll likely just stick with my vote for now. Since it looks like it will be between me and Zipped I'm not going to vote for them as I always feel weird about voting for someone to prevent myself from being lynched.

I don't, and as a hope player I don't understand why you don't want to live. The only way we win is to vote out people that aren't hope. If you are hope you should never want to die.

 

[AbsolutBro]

Didn't Ty4on prove they are the same?

I don't think so.

 

[*Splinter]

I'm almost tempted to vote him to test the theory that self sacrifice is a scum tell... But then that would be forcing a tie.


Eh, It's still annoying.

Actually Zipped just forced a tie (I think)

 

[*Splinter]

No sorry I'm wrong

4-3 Zipped

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

No it's 4-3 Zipped, the Google is not updated. Corn switched from Kalor to Zipped.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

No it's 4-3 Zipped, the Google is not updated. Corn switched from Kalor to Zipped.

WATCHU TALKIN BOUT

 

[Rest]

I'm almost tempted to vote him to test the theory that self sacrifice is a scum tell... But then that would be forcing a tie.


Eh, It's still annoying.

Well let me take care of that for you.

VOTE: Sawneeks

With one other person voting I feel like maybe we can get it going this way. I find Sawneeks suspicious, and think she's a good option to vote for.

 

[Ty4on]

I'm almost tempted to vote him to test the theory that self sacrifice is a scum tell... But then that would be forcing a tie.


Eh, It's still annoying.

All of NX Mafia thought the same before they lynched their cop...

 

[Makai]

VOTE: AbsolutBro

Zipped's still in the lead. I will switch to Zipped if he and Kalor are tied near the end.

 

[sandalphon]

I have been having internet issues, so I apologize for the drop in activity. I hope it will be resolved soon but if it continues, I will have to request either for Hope's understanding for my low post count or to be replaced. At the moment I have to resort to using the free half-hour internet at the local cafe. Therefore I may not be available after this post.

I had meant to come and post earlier and it discomforts me to cut so close to the bell, but as for my vote, I am afraid to say that I have been unable to come up with a strong conviction. I will cast my vote now to help Hope in the best potentials of turning up new information.

Vote: Kalor

His current seemingly resigned outlook sheds further doubt in my mind since CzarTim also had adopted similar feint during the last hour of voting line.

Regardless, I believe Kalor has performed better today and should he survive, I would like to say that I appreciate Kalor's vote on me. It lessens my suspicion on him since he is, I believe, undertaking a behaviour that Hope should adopt. No one should be above suspicion. This kind of attitude will blindside legitimate theories and I encourage Hope to continue to revisit every player's positions as new information comes to light.


TL21xx, I am sorry that real life constraints have pulled you away from us. Hope we may have the opportunity to play together again in the future.

As a closing, I would like to reiterate that Hope is at a favourable position to risk some mislynches. What Hope should do is to rally together better and convert unknown variables into known variables. From there, Hope can investigate and hunt Despair in a more cohesive manner.

 

[AbsolutBro]

VOTE: AbsolutBro

Zipped's still in the lead. I will switch to Zipped if he and Kalor are tied near the end.

So instead of addressing my post, you join in the votes against me instead?

 

[Makai]

So instead of addressing my post, you join in the votes against me instead?

Which post? Grocery shopping.

 

[AbsolutBro]

Which post? Grocery shopping.

Who posts from the grocery sto-

oh

right.



This post, but it's not a big deal right now.

 

[Kalor]

Oh my fucking god.... I hate this self-sacrificial bullshit.

When I posted that I wasn't really intending it to come across as self-sacrificial. It's a dumb reason not to vote, I know that. I should of thought more about it considering that CzarTim did something similar. Though since Zipped voted I may as well vote as well just to stick with my word.

Vote: Zippedpinhead

 

[*Splinter]

Zipped 5
Kalor 3
Absolut 3
Saw 2

 

[AbsolutBro]

On a different note I think redacted should be revealed tomorrow. The discussion of who they are took up a portion of the day and I feel like we'll be best suited if we know who they are.

(redacted) or <other>

?

Kalor. This. Answer it.

 

[*Splinter]

Ty4on and Flush still on wasted votes.

Anyone else not voted yet? I completely missed Makai last time I checked

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Kalor's vote change felt very... convenient.

 

[Kalor]

Kalor. This. Answer it.

(redacted)

 

[AbsolutBro]

(redacted)

So you don't want <other> to be revealed?

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Ty4on and Flush still on wasted votes.

Anyone else not voted yet? I completely missed Makai last time I checked

I haven't yet. I probably should, but I'm not confident on who to vote for...

 

[Kalor]

So you don't want <other> to be revealed?

I'm not against them being revealed as it could lead to clearing up some night phase stuff though I would bet on only one of them being Despair.