StanleyPalmtree
Banned
we haven't already?
-
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Dark Souls Mafia |OT| Git Gud or Die Trying
- Thread starter squidyj
- Start date
we haven't already?
hey_monkey
Banned
I'm with FEP on this - it's a numbers game. But okay, we lynch d1, find out it's probably town, since after the NK, we're told that townies dropped, scum stayed the same. At that point, it's basically a standard d2 - we analyze the NK, which probably gives us nothing, and our votes on d1, which probably also doesn't give us much, but at least we have a little.
How do we then proceed? At least in the early phase - and this may change in late game - no lynch seems like a viable position if we have not-much to work with. Of course if we have some kind of lead, let's chase it. But if we're all like welp, we're flying blind, blind-lynching and hoping for the best can bite us in the ass in this game moreso than in others.
Early game phase, I'm all for the lynch-no lynch pattern until or unless viable clues come into presence.
Muffin1611
Banned
Man, I hate D1. Nothing to go on and I'm just wondering what I should even do.
oreomunsta
Banned
hey_monkey
Banned
We have way more to do in this game than in most games!
Talk !
It's perfectly normal to get into fights with one another since those are sincere.
Why are you unwilling to play ? At least try muffin
That's just wrong muffin and you know it.
You go with what you get. Posts that were made and responding to it or ask something.
Try to get into the discussion. If you don't like the discussion. Create your own
Muffin1611
Banned
Muffin1611
Banned
I was also just in college since in the morning, so my exhaustion is not really helping me finding something constructive to discuss. ^^"
What are your thoughts on the players that are currently not posting ? Or your thoughts about coasting players in general ?
What do you think about FEP and the way he is playing ?
Muffin1611
Banned
I don't really think we can determine already who is coasting and who is not, the day isn't that far in yet.
About FEPs talk about possible strategies, I don't really like the idea of No Lynch. Maybe on D2 only. Seems a bit risky to me giving scum and especially the arsonist more time.
In my eyes 70% of the players are currently coasting.
hey_monkey
Banned
whoa whoa whoa let's put the brakes on this one
Lord of Castamere
Member
I might be down for no lynch tomorrow but logically we have to try today. As today will probably be one of the few that we know the alignment of who dies with only 2 deaths possible. Almost every night after this will end with 3 deaths, and suspect allegiance.
The problem with waiting for pr's is that the arsonist can only be lynched. A day we may have hit them, might be completely wasted. Plus if we don't lynch, what can we gain from that day in past reads? It's entirely possible that scum hit n, or doc blocks one of the kills, giving us another pure alignment day. Every day we NL feels like a day where nothing is learned. Like we're trying to meditate our way to max intelligence, but we need to punch a dragon instead.
The problem with waiting for pr's is that the arsonist can only be lynched. A day we may have hit them, might be completely wasted. Plus if we don't lynch, what can we gain from that day in past reads? It's entirely possible that scum hit n, or doc blocks one of the kills, giving us another pure alignment day. Every day we NL feels like a day where nothing is learned. Like we're trying to meditate our way to max intelligence, but we need to punch a dragon instead.
Why ? Not everyone is constructive.
I mean most mean good and try to be but aren't.
I give him the advice to stay active first of all, which is miles better than being inactive.
Lord of Castamere
Member
I feel you. I had 5 hours of sleep before my 8am math class today. Still have to finish a speech outline before Friday, print a bunch of crap, and find the energy to work out.
hey_monkey
Banned
Yeah, with the way information is revealed and the work that's been done there, I agree - we have to lynch today.
True, inactivity is the lowest on the scale of usefulness, but why not go big and say yes, try to be constructive? Empty activity such as "gee, things are confusing, not sure what to do" might as well be inactivity.
whoa whoa whoa let's put the brakes on this one....
Jokes aside, that's why I gave muffin the suggestion to just stay active for the moment and then see where the boat takes you.
He was clearly having issues where to begin and I gave him one of the lowest branches to go by.
I know Fire checked in, that's why I also said 'contributed something' because he just checked in but gave no thoughts.
CM has just checked in since then though and is coming in hot.
So I've been mulling over the lynch everyday vs. don't lynch everyday and I think it actually comes down to how confident we feel we can lynch Scum/Neutral. Taking FEP's math, the only difference between No Lynching every other Day Phase and lynching every Day Phase is the extension of only a single Day Phase ( Day 5 v Day 6 ). HOWEVER, I think the bigger difference between the two is the amount of lynch attempts we have.
If we go for a No Lynch every other Day Phase then we only have 3 chances to hit Scum/Neutral and given Gafia Town's track record ( and the fact we have no flips ) I'd put our odds at very unlikely that we lynch correctly every single time. Not to mention the Neutral has the chance to royally fuck us over by igniting his/her targets the Night before we get our Dead Anti-Town number and potentially kills Scum which, while GREAT for us, means we now have to guess between a group of people who was Scum and who wasn't. Did we lynch the Scum? Did the Neutral Ignite them? It turns into WIFOM hell.
Now, if we decided to go for lynching every Day Phase we'd have 5 lynch attempts before things start getting dicey. That means more shots at Scum and more shots at the Neutral. True, we don't get any concrete information from the flips anymore other than we might have guessed correctly at some point in the past 2 Day Phases but I think the point of this game is to break our reliance on Flips and for us to find others way of nailing Scum/Neutral. It's also not like we're without any information either; we have a Day Cop and a normal Cop than can get us information as well to help us narrow down the playing field.
I see pros and cons to both sides of this, honestly. While getting some sort of info on flips would help tremendously I don't trust Gafia's track record enough to narrow our flip count to just 3 flips before potentially losing the game by lynching the wrong Anti-Town, not to mention the fact that the Neutral could ignite up-to 4 people in one go if we never lynched them. This does leave our PRs a better chance at hitting Scum, the Cop specifically, since we have less of a chance to mislynch them but this also relies on them hitting correctly and they wouldn't be able to fully trust their Town clears with a Godfather in play. I also really don't like the prospect of not having information on flips but leaving a Neutral that can murder a bunch of us in one go ( and maybe hit Scum ) and leaving Scum to run around doing their thing worries me even more.
I'm starting to feel we should just take the risk and go for lynching every Day Phase.
What do you see as coasting behavior, Nin?
hey_monkey
Banned
I appreciate the logic you lay out here, but I'm hesitant to decide either way at this juncture. I guess in the end, I think we should go forward as though it's a standard day, with No Lynch coming in as a more viable alternative than in a usual game if we need it (for some reason). Because I don't trust us either.
I think we should try to lynch every day. Everyone having the ability to comfortably hide behind a no lynch vote is going to make tracking voting less useful. I always considered end-of-day votes as a useful reference point for trying to find scum. It's just not very useful to vote not to lynch someone in a game of accusation.
hey_monkey
Banned
But - and I mean this as a good-faith, legitimate question - how can we use those end-of-day votes in the same way as we would in any game, when we don't have any concrete results to link them to? I mean, I love data. I'm just trying to visualize how this will work. We'll find out at the end of this day phase to a point, but it'll take the next two-day cycle to really see - and by then we're halfway to a loss as town if we haven't been careful.
Who people choose to vote for could still be useful....Maybe? We have a cop that can confirm alignments later in the game, hopefully......I don't really know. Yeah, my arguments have some holes.
Admittedly, I'm just not confident that no lynch days are going to be productive. They haven't been in previous games that I played in. By deciding ahead of time to not lynch people I feel like we're giving scum room to wiggle. It's harder to scrutinize people's stances on other players if we've all agreed to not lynch as town.They can do whatever they want knowing that they won't be eliminated.
hey_monkey
Banned
But I don't think anyone is absolutely saying let's not lynch. The argument is more this game is different; we should consider other possibilities, including the possibility of a time when no lynch is more viable outside of mylo/lylo.
CornBurrito
Member
Nothing. I forgot No Lynch counts as a vote.
So how do you plan to go about the rest of this Day Phase, Monkey? Because so far we've all just kind of circled around this issue and not a whole lot else.
Burb can I get any thoughts from you that aren't mechanics related
Everyone else seemed to ignore you on this so I'll ask: why did you bring this up?
Is that because you're the Arsonist trying to mess with our heads? o:
It was a joke, since we are in the early to middle phases of D1 and I know that not everyone has checked in yet or ready started to play.
Not posting
oreomunsta
Banned
I'm pretty firm in believing that not lynching is detrimental to town, so I'm curious as to why some are still wanting to go down that route
isaacnukem
Member
Who're the holdovers? I think even the purveyor of lynching on certain days agrees we have to lynch today. Hey, monkey!
oreomunsta
Banned
I'm talking lynching through the whole game, not just today. Monkey is being pretty vocal about not lynching every day, but there may be others who haven't spoken much or at all about it
flatearthpandas
Member
Actually, we have only four lynch attempts before we get into a sticky situation. So we basically trade +1 day and better info on flips for -1 lynch. Assuming worst case scenario for town in both cases.
I'm still in favor of the no lynches for a while, but would prefer to shelve it until tomorrow at this point.
So.. who to lynch today?
flatearthpandas
Member
I've outlined my piece already but the short of it is it isn't really detrimental. It gives us another day in a worst case scenario game in exchange for one less lynch attempt and gives us better info on our flips if we find some scum.
Scum are not going to be chatting with each other in their spare time devising devious plots. They'll be stuck with the rest of us and that is one more day for them to slip.
I'd be more curious why you're convinced this is a bad trade off.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
wow, i didnt sleep through several pages of discussion for once, if this keeps up i might actually be able to play confidently for once!
anyway, it seems like everyone is on board for a lynch today at least, and as fun as it is discussing the math of future lynchs (itsreallynotmathisfornerds) i think we might need to actually come up with a few lynch possibilities, no?
Tui ad: yeah right
anyway, it seems like everyone is on board for a lynch today at least, and as fun as it is discussing the math of future lynchs (itsreallynotmathisfornerds) i think we might need to actually come up with a few lynch possibilities, no?
flatearthpandas
Member
I'm going to leave my vote where it is. Between me and CM's omgus corn is the vote leader.
Someone give me a better target or say something good about him.
Someone give me a better target or say something good about him.
hey_monkey
Banned
Should I just... repeat everything I've said and that others have said? Like any other vote, this will have people for or against.
To clarify: I'm being pretty vocal that a no lynch vote should be discussed when appropriate, unlike in a "normal" game, when it's not appropriate, really, in mid-game. I'm not saying a blanket no lynch policy or always no lynch every other day or anything else. I'm saying that with this game structure, it should be an option that doesn't immediately get someone on the chopping block just for suggesting it.
indeed. hey, isaac!
Apparently I'm gonna explain the same thing several times, but when other topics of discussion arise, we'll talk about those. That is to say: hard to predict at this time, because not sure what's going to happen. Don't mean to give a nonanswer, but it's difficult to plan for a d1.
oreomunsta
Banned
I don't really understand where you were going with your math, fep, but here's my post outlining why no lynch isn't great
hey_monkey
Banned
vote: kitsunelaine
for voting for someone over an action in another game. As good as any.
for voting for someone over an action in another game. As good as any.
flatearthpandas
Member
They don't work twice as fast though... not even close. That's where the breakdown was going.
Hey guys sorry for my inactivity today despite promising to be more active. I'll try to share more and actually put a vote down on someone tomorrow, specially since I have a class to plan for tomorrow morning right now and can't give this thread much attention.
Do want to say that I would rather lynch everyday if anything because this is already a game in which we have little control and information and every bit of agency helps. I'm trying to stop myself from scum-reading people who want to take that agency away.
I'll actually look at the player list tomorrow and start writing down thoughts on people, as useless as that is on D1.
Do want to say that I would rather lynch everyday if anything because this is already a game in which we have little control and information and every bit of agency helps. I'm trying to stop myself from scum-reading people who want to take that agency away.
I'll actually look at the player list tomorrow and start writing down thoughts on people, as useless as that is on D1.
hey_monkey
Banned
By the same token, I'm trying not to scumread anyone who isn't willing to discuss the idea that alternate methods of play may be more suitable for games with alternate rules, so I guess we're sort of on the same page with that.
kitsunelaine
Banned
Hmm, interesting. Why does a joke vote in response to another joke vote make me-- Eh, you already said it doesn't. ¯\_(ツ
_/¯That plays a little to close into 'All those against me shall DIE' territory for me Monkey.
And by that, I'm asking if you're automatically scum reading people who disagree?