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Destiny |OT15| What Cheese May Come

H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Jest Chillin said:
I think some of the disconnect is that the concept of odds and chance is confusing in and of itself. Or at least, the way we're taught odds and chance work.

We're told that if something has a 50% chance that Result A should happen roughly 1 out of every 2 times. What many people forget though is that in reality Result B can happen every single time. It's not likely but it's entirely possible and when that happens to a person or to certain groups of people, the feeling is that either the odds are wrong or something else is influencing the outcome.
Click to expand...
right, and everything about a game where it tends to come down to "that one drop you really really want" lends itself to the gambler's fallacy.

I guess if I really get down to it, I've had it easy being able to see randomness for what it is. because if you forbid yourself from believing that it is random, and you're getting screwed, then you're getting screwed on purpose, however convoluted the means.

I just get lost trying to concort the version of events that would appear to people to legitimately be random. every possible option I weigh seems, well, not random :p
 
D

Derpyduck

Banned
Anyone want to take a 31 hunter on PS4 to either of the raids? As a disclaimer, I've never done either. I thought I'd try here first before trying to join one of the people on Twitch that take viewers.
 
N

Namikaze1

Member
Derpyduck said:
Anyone want to take a 31 hunter on PS4 to either of the raids? As a disclaimer, I've never done either. I thought I'd try here first before trying to join one of the people on Twitch that take viewers.
Click to expand...
Hawkian is your guy. He takes raid newbies and make true raiders out of them.
 
K

Kadey

Mrs. Harvey
Flawless tonight? Would also be good since unless you did it already, rewards ala killing two birds with one stone.
 
S

Sword Of Doom

Member
Jest Chillin said:
I think some of the disconnect is that the concept of odds and chance is confusing in and of itself. Or at least, the way we're taught odds and chance work.

We're told that if something has a 50% chance that Result A should happen roughly 1 out of every 2 times. What many people forget though is that in reality Result B can happen every single time. It's not likely but it's entirely possible and when that happens to a person or to certain groups of people, the feeling is that either the odds are wrong or something else is influencing the outcome.
Click to expand...

If the odds are 50% then if you roll long enough you will eventually get an even distribution of A/B because that is the result with the highest probability. It's how casinos make billions of dollars.
 
G

GRIP

Member
Finally got a fucking helmet to drop from Crota so I can get to level 32. Still looking for a chest piece for my hunter, but i'm glad i got something I can use to level up.

Thanks for the runs guys! I'm not used to getting the raids done this early in the week.
 
J

JTran2003

Member
All my characters have equipment to reach 32. Now all that's holding me back are radiant shards or lack thereof. So ready for hard mode!
 
D

Dazzler

Member
holy shit

ran one nightfall, one weekly and one VoG hard Atheon kill

loot:

Vex Mythoclast
Truth
The Last Word
Vision of Confluence

and Timebreaker Vehicle

RNGesus blessed me today
 
N

Namikaze1

Member
1) namikaze1 - 32 Titan Defender
2) ???
3) rodiard - 32 any class
4) Captain_Cold - 32 Hunter/Titan
5) zewone - 32 Titan
6) KxozZ - 32 Warlock

Again:
Don't wait for any invites! Immediately join in on me once you updated the game. I'll be sending party chat invites around 9 AM PST/12 PM EST, an hour before the supposed time Bungie will drop the Hard Mode update.

For those who won't be joining and/or just want to follow our attempt:
Stream will be up on: http://www.twitch.tv/namikaze01

Stream will go up half an hour early so around 9:30 AM PST / 12:30 PM EST. I want it up early so that I don't have to waste any time setting it up once the game has been updated with tomorrow's patch. I'll post a link here for when it is up.


I'll be sending out friend requests to those who aren't on my friend list.

Well, with fig out, I'll be needing a 6th. Rubenov, xplicite, and a couple others offered their services.

Rubenov, if you can make it, the spot is yours. If not, xplicite or some of the others can take the spot.

I'll look for a 6th tomorrow morning just in case.
 
N

Navid

Member
WHOAguitarninja said:
1.WHOAguitarninja
2.b_spooky13
3.blazeuk
4.glottis8
5.ethomaz
Click to expand...
Thanks for the run guys, sorry I lost my router at Crota.

Still, was pretty impressed that we got through what we did with all the issues issues going on... made for a interesting experience and a fun laugh as well.
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Sword Of Doom said:
What makes you so certain that it is completely random?
Click to expand...
Completely random is dangerous territory.

I'd contrast that phrase to what I'm talking about in that I believe Destiny's loot rolls are legitimately random, i.e. not pattern-based, pre-ordained, tied to certain fixed elements, different per player, etc... you know what I mean hopefully. Not not random. :p

Completely random evokes the idea that on any given loot roll, you have an equal chance of achieving any possible result. I definitely don't think this is the case in Destiny, which employs extreme weighting of possible results. This is equivalent to rolling an uneven die; the outcome is still random, but biased toward certain outcomes. Shards are a more likely result than Fatebringer from the Templar roll, the Vex Mythoclast is a less likely result than a Timebreaker from the Atheon roll. If you narrow the focus enough, we (the playerbase) can actually prove this with relative ease. Players have collected enough data to prove- though the margin of error may be significant, rendering the absolute percentages inaccurate- the relative chances of a certain drop that results from this weighting.
7YWah6A.png
Click to expand...

This is a completely different story than saying certain accounts are getting drops in a non-random way, or others are predisposed to get good loot, or having an item makes you more likely to get that item, etc.; these would be non-random factors. They are tied to something other than a dice roll.

What makes me so certain that Destiny's loot is legitimately random? A lack of evidence that it's anything else, I guess... I know it's hard to come to terms with. I wish I could tell you that I have seen the database and there really is just a machine rolling virtual dice.

But I keep seeing anecdotes, over and over and over again, that describe experiences so close to the individual as to be statistically irrelevant, let alone evidence to contradict the idea of a random system.

No of us know how the loot drops work exactly. Based on experience, I don't think the system awards you weapons you already have, but it does seem like people are predisposed to certain weapons and other types of loot (sparrows and ships) more than others.
Click to expand...
Let me try this tack again-

If no one got many copies of the same items,
and no one got more sparrows than anyone else,
and no one got more ships than anyone else,
would this appear to you to be truly random?
 
H

Hugstable

Banned
iRAWRasaurus said:
My aplogizes got side tracked T_T
Click to expand...

Haha no problem, I'm still down for a nightfall anytime. Someone is gonna help me out with the weekly too, will probably have enough strange coins to get something good from Xur again this week! I've had so many strange coin drops these last 3 days lol
 
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