mr checkpoint are you still there? I just got home.No worriesif you wanna run it soon let me know. My friend wants to do it
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Destiny |OT15| What Cheese May Come
- Thread starter Hawkian
- Start date
You understand that the answers to these questions are calculations, right?
The odds are whatever they are. That's what I'm trying to tell you. You, Hudson, are the experiencer of a multitude of one-in-a-million events on a regular basis in Destiny- merely because there are millions of people playing.
You have to understand... the implicit argument you're making is that if this stuff didn't happen, if you received only one MIDA Multi-Tool, 1 Ghorn, 1 Thunderlord, 1 No land beyond, 1 Dragon's Breath, and fusion rifles with a different perk each time- that would necessarily be more random. Does that sound right to you? Random gives you everything you want, in equal distribution?
*shrug* Monte Carlo is my "locked drop" too
I've gotten 7. Except for the "seemingly random" (you're saying it explicitly does NOT seem random), of course it could. Any nonrandom scenario could be concocted to drive the experience, instead of a random one. But again, what's the actual evidence that this is the case? Why does your individual experience make this setup more likely than actual randomness producing the same results?
You're absolutely right- this is human nature. It's almost impossible to avoid, actually.. pattern recognition isn't just a pasttime for human beings, it's a survival instinct.
Let me ask you this: the fact that most everyone more or less seems to have a story like this- the fact that most anyone, at command, can produce an anecdote of unimaginable odds- does that make you feel more confident that it's not random? I'd like to be able to make my case more cogently, and I know there's an angle I haven't looked at it from yet.
I... I don't tend to make much progress in this debates. The way something feels to you is always going to be more compelling than the absolute odds. But like I said... I make the general point- everything I've seen so far supports true randomness (or psuedorandomness, again, for those who know why I'd make this distinction). Then, people respond with anecdotes about their loot drops, or those of people they've seen. These anecdotes typically involve no more than 1-5 players and the conclusion is "this is so weird, it can't be random." As though randomness producing results that feel weird means anything at all outside of the individual experience.
This is laughable in terms of evidence. You need a statistical analysis of some significant pool of players... at least hundreds, but preferably hundreds of thousands... showing not that the system produces lots of coincidences- it HAS to do that- but that the results adhere to some pattern rather than aligning roughly with a random distribution.
Vog or crota?
Amibguous Cad
Member
What exactly are the rewards for the Daily Story Mission? I thought it was strange coins, but didn't get one for doing it, so that must not be right.
iRAWRasaurus
Banned
Join whenevermr checkpoint are you still there? I just got home.
figadapaura
Member
Crota. Full now, sorry. :/
weremichael
Member
PSN? I'm going to start a Nightfall run if you want to slog it out with me. PSN same as my neogaf.
No worries. Friended ya in case you need someone to jump in for anything later.
forza_aldi
Banned
Mind if I join up? No mic, though.
iRAWRasaurus
Banned
Yeah just letting people get the checkpoint currently
Orochinagis
Member
Cant find you =(
Could I hop in or are you looking to start?
toastyToast
Member
Added Shito but it looks like the group filled up. I'm doing nightfall as well. Check profile for psn
Hidden One
Member
Can you add FD_Reborn? I'd like the run the night fall real quick.
MrS
Banned
Loading up the gorgon HM checkpoint if anyone wants it
You still doing this? Can I get if so?
Lushious, it's making me install a patch!
I'm telling you it absolutely makes sense. If it didn't happen, would you think, "gee, this is really random?" Is that what would make the difference- not seeing frequent coincidences?
more anecdotes aaaaaaaah
We don't know, but yeah, that all seems right.
The one thing I can give you here is that the odds of getting the exact same result from the same two probabilistic events within 30 minutes are the same as getting the exact same result within one year of each other. The duration of time between the results has no impact.
I'm telling you it absolutely makes sense. If it didn't happen, would you think, "gee, this is really random?" Is that what would make the difference- not seeing frequent coincidences?
The odds of getting both (7 Suros) and (7 Truths), alone, even without regard to "before (x)," are already pretty huge. Probably <1 in one or two million already... but you're just driving my point home. That you, as an individual, have experienced this, is meaningless, or even moreso, an expected result.
Joining now
iRAWRasaurus
Banned
I'm stockpiling planetary mats. Winter is coming.
MrS
Banned
Thank you!
You understand that the answers to these questions are calculations, right?
The odds are whatever they are. That's what I'm trying to tell you. You, Hudson, are the experiencer of a multitude of one-in-a-million events on a regular basis in Destiny- merely because there are millions of people playing.
You have to understand... the implicit argument you're making is that if this stuff didn't happen, if you received only one MIDA Multi-Tool, 1 Ghorn, 1 Thunderlord, 1 No land beyond, 1 Dragon's Breath, and fusion rifles with a different perk each time- that would necessarily be more random. Does that sound right to you? Random gives you everything you want, in equal distribution?
*shrug* Monte Carlo is my "locked drop" too
Except for the "seemingly random" (you're saying it explicitly does NOT seem random), of course it could. Any nonrandom scenario could be concocted to drive the experience, instead of a random one. But again, what's the actual evidence that this is the case? Why does your individual experience make this setup more likely than actual randomness producing the same results?
You're absolutely right- this is human nature. It's almost impossible to avoid, actually.. pattern recognition isn't just a pasttime for human beings, it's a survival instinct.
Let me ask you this: the fact that most everyone more or less seems to have a story like this- the fact that most anyone, at command, can produce an anecdote of unimaginable odds- does that make you feel more confident that it's not random? I'd like to be able to make my case more cogently, and I know there's an angle I haven't looked at it from yet.
I... I don't tend to make much progress in this debates. The way something feels to you is always going to be more compelling than the absolute odds. But like I said... I make the general point- everything I've seen so far supports true randomness (or psuedorandomness, again, for those who know why I'd make this distinction). Then, people respond with anecdotes about their loot drops, or those of people they've seen. These anecdotes typically involve no more than 1-5 players and the conclusion is "this is so weird, it can't be random." As though randomness producing results that feel weird means anything at all outside of the individual experience.
This is laughable in terms of evidence. You need a statistical analysis of some significant pool of players... at least hundreds, but preferably hundreds of thousands... showing not that the system produces lots of coincidences- it HAS to do that- but that the results adhere to some pattern rather than aligning roughly with a random distribution.
I think you're articulating this as well as you possibly can. However, it is our very genetic predisposition to assign patterns to everything--it is a survival instinct.
Either way, my "coping" mechanism for Destiny RNGesus is to never expect any loot. If I get something useful, then it's bonus. If I get an Exotic, I'm thankful that at the very least I have a free shard to use for something else.
figadapaura
Member
Fucking energies.
Nice run phantom! Good fun and I was able to be a little risky with the sword for kicks! Still no black hammer or hunger of crota for me, but I guess RNG is just waiting to bless me with hard raid love...
My man....
EL CUCO
Member
Nice! Congrats. You should try to find a group that's running VOG one of these days. The gear is a little outdated (except for the exotics) but the experience is second to none in Destiny.
CraigerGamer
Member
How's that Fatebringer?
Lighthouse
Member
TalentBurke
Member
Need a 6th for the DeathSinger checkpoint
Pretty much. I don't get how in a seemingly 100% completely random scenario I can so frequently get the same item when the chances of getting said item are already low.
Loading up the gorgon HM checkpoint if anyone wants it
How you finding Destiny on the Vita?. Think 70% of my playtime has been via the Vita, it works perfectly with Destiny.
Really really good approach, especially with the Nightfall. The XP/rep buff, rep, marks, and XP are pretty substantial, the roll is a bonus
jadedm17
Member
Truth.... so close yet so far. Free shard is always great so thank you.
More people need to understand , moreso with things like nightfall that have a lot of outdated rolls for high level players.Really really good approach, especially with the Nightfall. The XP/rep buff, rep, marks, and XP are pretty substantial, the roll is a bonus
Darryl M R
Member
For VoG normal what level is recommended? My Warlock just hit 25 and I want to know when can I take him through VoG. . I need someone who is patient. I completed it 50+ on my Hunter but I don't know how I will do with a level 25 Warlock.
iRAWRasaurus
Banned
You can prob do it as a lvl25 since you know what you're doing
Btw need 3 more for VoG HM starting from gorgon checkpoint.
manicstreet
Banned
Whoever needs the death singer checkpoint add me and I'll give it to you.
Psn: manicstreet
Psn: manicstreet
iRAWRasaurus
Banned
I should have kept it a secret
shh it still is a secret to whomever didn't read that post hahaTheTylerDurden
Member
Anyone dishing out cp for gorgon chest?
BadAss2961
Member
We've got a group of 3 looking to finish the raid from that checkpoint.Anyone dishing out cp for gorgon chest?