Nope, that's not how it works. You're confusing cumulative probability with a single-event probability. Opening a chest is not the same as coin flipping. Loot from a drop is a single-event, coin flipping is cumulative probability because it has two independent events, heads or tails.
You're trying to make a single-event probability into a cumulative probability.
:-/ No, you're confused about what cumulative probability is. Coin-flipping and dice-rolling (i.e.: chests/drops) can both involve single-event and cumulative probability. Cumulative probability has to do with the cumulative nature of odds when accounting for
more than one possible result of a single event. It has nothing to do with the odds of any given result being better or worse the more times the event occurs.
With a coin flip, there's a cumulative 100% chance of getting heads
or tails on a given flip. Or to use the much more relevant sort of probability for this game: on a dice roll, there's a cumulative 50% chance of getting
either [1 or 2 or 3] or [4 or 5 or 6], because each side of the die has a ~16.6% chance of landing.
Splinter also isn't wrong, he's just talking about something completely different. When you flip a coin (or open a chest) your odds are the same every single time. It's a 1/2 chance of heads, every time. However, if you flip a coin 100 times, the odds of having seen heads
any given one of those times are of course higher than if you'd merely flipped the coin twice, even though it's
possible to see heads 0 out of 100 times, or 2 out of 2 times. It's like you're trying to tell him he's invoking the gambler's fallacy when in actuality he's just doing this:
1 - (1/2 ^ 100) = ~99.99999...%
i.e., if you flip a coin 100 times there's an extremely close to 100% chance that at least one flip will be heads.
This link explains what I just said and contradicts what you were describing. hopefully this puts the matter to bed.
