GymWolf
Member
Fair point.To giant corporations they can be the same thing. Heck with projections they can say they lost money if they didn’t profit as much as they hoped.
This reminds me of ea and activision...
Fair point.To giant corporations they can be the same thing. Heck with projections they can say they lost money if they didn’t profit as much as they hoped.
I'm not going to waste my time reading any numbers here. You have to be an idiot to not immediately know that it was an amazing purchase for Disney. I've seen far less valuable things sold for more. Some people don't understand the money they make on just the existing IPs, merchandise, etc. The Mandalorian has shown it's worth into building Disney+ as a strong streaming service. It has absolutely increased Disney's value and stock price. That is what it's all about.
Many of you are basing your opinions on the new trilogy's sales, which still made a lot of money btw. You don't judge an acquisition that way. Don't forget the future movies to come. They've barely scraped the surface. No one's ever really gone.
I'm not going to waste my time reading any numbers here. You have to be an idiot to not immediately know that it was an amazing purchase for Disney. I've seen far less valuable things sold for more. Some people don't understand the money they make on just the existing IPs, merchandise, etc. The Mandalorian has shown it's worth into building Disney+ as a strong streaming service. It has absolutely increased Disney's value and stock price. That is what it's all about.
Many of you are basing your opinions on the new trilogy's sales, which still made a lot of money btw. You don't judge an acquisition that way. Don't forget the future movies to come. They've barely scraped the surface. No one's ever really gone.
I did a Time Value of Money(TMV) and Rate of Return (ROR) calculation based on what numbers I could find and they were in the red, deep in the red.
thanks for basically agreeing your prior post was completely wrong. ROI vs saying they are deep red is 2 different things. You can have a shitty ROI and not be red. Not that Star Wars has been a shitty ROI. Assuming they were in the black before TLJ, Disney is probably on the way to doubling its initial investment.Making their money back versus ROI is completely different. If I give you $4 and tomorrow you just give me $4 back I have earned nothing. Breaking even isn't bad but clearly Disney would like to see a return on investment. (And technically given TVM receiving my $4 back the next day is less than having $4 currently (inflation))
First I would like to say you're completely right about the other revenue streams. I have no way of finding that data easily. I use what I can from the annual reports such as TWDC 2019 Annual Report and make some assumptions about things.
But to simplify things down a bit lets just have a little fun and look at it this way.
Disney had a choice to acquire LucasArts for $4B, or invest in something else. Just for shits and gigs lets say they decided to invest that $4b into the S&P 500 (not remotely likely. Just to exemplify the point.)
Year Investment S&P Yearly Return 2012 4,000,000,000 YOI 2013
5,184,000,000 29.60% 2014 5,184,000,000 11.39% 2015 6,279,165,866 -0.73% 2016 7,498,579,878 9.54% 2017 7,017,171,049 19.42% 2018 9,043,730,049 -6.42% 2019 9,320,468,188 28.88% 2020 3.06% ROI 79.79%
S&P Historical Return Data
OK so if Disney has opted to do that roughly right now there investment would be valued at close to $9 billion.
Now due to Star Wars primarily being a film franchise first a foremost ( Yes I understand that Star Wars is a multimedia behemoth but lets just continue.)
let us take a look at their movie revenue post acquisition.
Star Wars Movie Revenue
Release Date Title Production Budget Opening Weekend Domestic Box Office World Wide Box Office 12/20/2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skyw… $275,000,000 $177,383,864 $492,019,801 $1,026,619,801 5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $275,000,000 $84,420,489 $213,767,512 $393,151,347 12/15/2017 Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… $200,000,000 $220,009,584 $620,181,382 $1,332,539,889 12/16/2016 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $200,000,000 $155,081,681 $532,177,324 $1,056,057,273 12/18/2015 Star Wars Ep. VII: The Forc… $306,000,000 $247,966,675 $936,662,225 $2,068,223,624 Total Production Cost $1,256,000,000 Total World Wide Box Office $5,876,591,934 Net Income $4,620,591,934
So now that we have some fun data lets extrapolate what we can.
- 8 Years after the 2012 $4b acquisition Disney have managed to make box office revenues of $4.6b
- The difference between our alternative investment vs. Lucas Arts purchase is 9,320,468,188 - 4,620,591,934 = 4,699,876,254
- Star Wars non-movie revenues would need to almost equal that of the movies.
I was going to include from PV and FV calculations but I just figured then we would be getting into the weeds of things.
I am kind of closing this up quickly due to other commitments but here are my closing notes.
- Yes there are plenty of holes in this assumption but that is was speculation is.
- Do I believe Disney has realized a meaningful gain on investment into Lucas Arts? No.
- Will that change over time? Most likely yes.
- Could Disney have used that $4b for other investments? Absolutely.
- What does any of this mean? Keep your mind on your money and your money on your mind.
Cheers Mate!
thanks for basically agreeing your prior post was completely wrong. ROI vs saying they are deep red is 2 different things. You can have a shitty ROI and not be red. Not that Star Wars has been a shitty ROI. Assuming they were in the black before TLJ, Disney is probably on the way to doubling its initial investment.
what has almost single handedly powered Disney+ and made it socially relevant? Star Wars (the mandelorian). Then you have all the legacy sales that will keep selling forever and the digital rights for video games which are incredibly lucrative. That’s not even counting future sales and future movies/streaming shows. Star Wars May not 10x it’s investment like it used to but any studio would kill for even its current profit output.
Someone posted this in another thread, and it's a pretty brutal summation: -
So here's my take, I don't care whether they're making money, my assumption is that they are based on their game plan for star wars. 1. buy the ip 2. license the ip. 3. create new ip and finish skywalker trilogy...... AND NOW WAIT
My guess is the numbers will have at least break even following RoS and will continue to make profit on items like this:
According to Disneyland's website, you can build a custom lightsaber at Savi's Workshop for $199.99, plus tax. The experience is so authentic and is expected to be so popular, you may need to book a reservation
At this point they've concluded the original IP and anything they choose to do going forward can be done in their creative room separate of any ties to the original characters and nostalgia. Now Disney truly owns Star Wars for good or bad, most people would say for bad based on the last trilogy and continued bleeding of soul for a fucking 200$ toy.
Between toys, video games, and merchandise everything is likely profit going forward at a marked up rate.
They need constant income. It's not just about revenue on the films, it's about paying the ongoing wages of everyone employed by Lucasfilm.
As for things like the toy sales, albeit I would always suggest taking anything on the internet with a hefty grain of salt, channels like WCB have looked into the toy sales and they haven't been great: -
I mean that is quite notable is that Disney didn't have anything in place for when The Mandalorian first hit. It was only really when the show became an internet phenomenon that they went crazy with the cheese whip and that's all principally centred around Baby Yoda toys that they know are going to sell like hot cakes versus anything else (No Mando or Greef Carga figures etc *)
Updated: ‘The Child’ Merch from The Mandalorian is Here! | StarWars.com
Bring your love of the new The Mandalorian character home!www.starwars.com
* I'm still hoping they'll get back to me about my suggestion for a Cara Dune Live Doll though ....
I actually saw Vintage series Mandalorian-branded stuff over the weekend at Best Buy of all places. They had an AT-ST from episode 4 or whatever. I see there are Mando and Cara Dude and Baby Yoda figures in the works too, but it is surprising they were not ready for the series debut (though glad they kept baby Yoda a secret).
I actually bought a stupid overpriced "Shadow Stormtrooper" figure at Target this weekend, no idea why, but it just looked cool.
I dare say it's coming, but the point was, it's after the fact versus beforehand. If you search that WCB Youtube Channel they have a bunch of videos of the main dude visiting toy stores and just everywhere with tonnes of cheap as fuck/discounted Figures. There's a shocking amount of pure Landfill just sitting on shelves, not going anywhere.
I wonder if they were not sure if Mandolorian would be a hit or not, or if the premier date was in flux up until launch? I imagine they should have (could have) easily had a generic "Wave 1" ready for the series premier. Mandalorian, Remenant Storm Trooper, Greef Carga, maybe a couple of aliens. Then released the follow up figure wave after the series ended with Baby Yoda, Mando with new Armor, other Mandos, Moff whatshisname, etc.
I *can* see holding back on a lot of those for before the series as they'd spoil what was to come. Even Cara Dune would be sorta spoiler'ish. The AT-ST would have been a major spoiler too.
But yes, the SW merch I've seen around town generally languishes.. granted I don't check in on it all the time like I used to. I see the same Snoke/Rey figures clogging the pegs though. I don't know if the newer waves are coming in and selling right out though, or if they're not even being ordered. The Shadow Stormtrooper I saw was sitting in some other section and I figured what the hell.
When did they buy it? 9 years ago? and they are still 2 billion away from making a penny profit in the lucasfilm division, and to top it off they have alienated the core fanbase and the next generation doesn't give two shits about Stars Wars.
This time last year Gillette was the go to razor brand...
PS Who the fuck is paying for Disney+ to watch the Mandalorian when the bay and KODI exist? That's right, no one outside of the US. Yet another spectacular fuck up by Bob "I have no idea what I am doing" Iger
I've got the complete 1st series f the Mandalorian sitting on my desk on DVD, here
this may be true, but we have to factor in how much they have run the franchise into the ground. SW must be at its lowest point right now. The toys are not selling, the movies are not selling, they have 0 presence in the Chinese market.
Imagine if Avengers 1 bombed and instead of 20 marvel movies Disney made 8 of them. Star Wars was supposed to be Marvel 2.0 with movies every year making 1 to 1.5 billion. It was also supposed to be a trojan horse into the the chinese market. Now its essentially dead with dead toy sales and dead box office.
..........
But they have been making 1-1.5 billion apart from Solo.
And why do the naysayers keep bringing up China? Star Wars has never been a thing there.
You mean to tell me the Rose Tico figures weren't flying off the shelves. I am shocked I tell you Shocked.
Solo was the last stand alone and now Disney is going to take a "break" from Star Wars, so no upcoming Billion dollar movies until this break is over. Could you imagine Disney taking a "break" from Marvel and not releasing Marvel movies for 2 or 3 years.
The original plan was to have spin offs every year and main line the other years. Once 9 was done RJ was supposed to have his trilogy ready to go. Well instead they moved these spin offs to Disney+ because of Solo bombing.
As far as China goes, its the 2nd biggest movie market, soon to be first. Star Wars was never a thing there, but you don't think Disney wants that Yuen? They paid 4 Billion to be locked out of one of the biggest markets in the world. And thats not accounting for toys and videogames and all other merchandise they could shove down the chinese throats. Disney loves China Yuen. I highly doubt they are happy that the IP has no value there. And consider TFA made 140 Million, to be down to something like 20 million at the end of the franchise is horrible. Not only did they not grow the brand, they started from a high and then destroyed it.
Solo was just a film that nobody asked for unfortunately, it's hard for people to accept a different actor in a famous role.
It was very clear that Lucasfilm was going to concentrate on familiar stuff for their side stories with Rogue One and Solo. Neither film is bad and both are well made and engaging. The actors are all great across both films. Characters were so-so in Rogue One but were great in Solo. I'm personally still annoyed that Solo bombed because it's highly entertaining and I would have loved to have seen a sequel with the same characters and actors.
I think there were rumours of a Boba Fett film and an Obi-Wan film, all the same-same stuff and I think they realised that they need to diversify their side stories more for theatrical releases. People want to see new and amazing things. It makes sense to take time off and rethink their strategy. And it's only a 2 year "break" that they are having, it's not long.
It's also unfair to compare Star Wars to the MCU. The Star Wars universe and comic universe are very different beasts. In the comics, characters have always interacted with each other and all the books are linked together, it's a connected universe and it's easy to transplant that to the big screen. Yes, It's genius that Feige was able to pull it off but anyone that reads comics has always dreamed of the movies all being connected together, it's really not rocket science. There are so many good characters in the in the Marvel comics universe, easily over 100 and so it's very easy to have continual new characters introduced with new movies.
Star Wars on the other hand, both in the movies and the Legends cannon do not have a "huge universe" of "things" to pick from. It's extremely condensed compared to Marvel. Many comics and books stick to characters from the films. Many comics and books (over half) stick to the OT time frame. Many comics and books (over half) stick to the struggle against the Empire. Many comics and books stick to locations that we already know about from the Films.
As for characters, new and original characters are very slim from the Legends EU. I'd say that Thrawn and Jaina Solo are probably the 2 most popular and note worthy characters. Even if Disney kept the Legends EU as cannon (which would be impossible) there would still be slim pickings for good films.
Think about that, there are 30+ years worth of Legends EU content and it primarily sticks to the same stuff. That's crazy.
Lucasfilm could still take the Marvel approach in a way. With the MCU films, they take characters and ideas from the comics but they don't transplant the exact same story to the screen. As an example, both the Civil War and Age of Ultron films are entirely different to the comics, they just take inspiration from it. Lucasfilm could take ideas from the Legends cannon, shift things and reinterpret them for the big screen to make new ideas.
But honestly, who knows how the crazy Star Wars fans will react to this. Where as the majority of Marvel fans have loved and embraced what Marvel Studios have done, Star Wars fans might get extremely angry because their precious EU was messed with.
As for China..........
Yeah, of course Disney want that money from that nation. All the movie studios want that money.
But Star Wars has done fine in the past without China and it's doing fine now basically without China.
he gave all $4bn away to charity.
I think you ignored what I actually typed. There are heaps of comics and books but the majority are set in the OT time frame with the same characters with the same struggle against the Empire. And as far as I know, Lucasfilm is staying away from the EU stuff. It's why the movies are completely different to the EU stuff.
Even looking at the Old Republic stuff. It's still all the same. The setting looks the same. Jedi vs Sither. Bounty Hunters. The only thing that changes is that there are more Sith than 2.
wait for real?
Literally all four billy?
wait for real?
Literally all four billy?
Yes he gave it all away for education. Just Google it.
People seem to not realize he was earning billions from licensing. I mean it's fucking Star Wars. $4bn was cheap as fuck. There is no way Disney has not earned at least twice that amount so far.
Whoa, sorry I asked
Just had never heard this before my bad
yeesh
You've cracked the code. All film industries should cease from making any new content because MilkyJoe has their number
MilkyJoe
So, Disney has alienated their Star Wars audiences but YOU have The Mandalorian on DVD sitting proudly on your desk.
Fucking hypocritical pirate.
Yes, the Star Wars movies have alienated fans. The TV shows however, are decent.
As far as people pirating The Mandalorian... Disney+ is not currently available in lots of countries. March 31, it will launch across Western Europe, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and a number of other countries in the region. Eastern Europe and Latin America as early as October 2020 and Asia anywhere between late 2020 to 2022.
So yeah, MilkyJoe is right when he says " Who the fuck is paying for Disney+ to watch the Mandalorian when the bay and KODI exist? That's right, no one outside of the US." Because is only available in the US, Canada, The Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand.
...And on a DVD right here on my desk.
I didn’t realize they weren't streaming outside the US. In that case, I apologize for calling you a hypocrite. Any time a company restricts access to other reasons for some arbitrary reason, then I can understanding resorting to pirating. Pirate away!
MilkyJoe
So, Disney has alienated their Star Wars audiences but YOU have The Mandalorian on DVD sitting proudly on your desk.
Fucking hypocritical pirate.
A mad star wars fan at work keeps bringing me everything star wars, EVERYTHING, despite me saying I have no interest in Disney Star Wars
I just hope they learn the right lessons from what happened. Mandalorian has been a great success but what will they take away from that. It seems obvious the reason for its success is that it is a more matured story that is respectful to the universe and it's fans and builds on it's lore with good writing, not pandering to modern trends. But is that what they will see or will they think its success is because "duh starwars fans prefer TV shows now and hate movies" or "dur they just love baby yoda lets make more baby versions of other characters" or some other crass conclusion.
It’s cute that Star Wars is allowed to use that as an excuse...........
But they have been making 1-1.5 billion apart from Solo.
And why do the naysayers keep bringing up China? Star Wars has never been a thing there.
The arrogance, the ass-kissing, the passive aggressive disgust for older Star war fans. The constant excuse making.Solo was just a film that nobody asked for unfortunately, it's hard for people to accept a different actor in a famous role.
It was very clear that Lucasfilm was going to concentrate on familiar stuff for their side stories with Rogue One and Solo. Neither film is bad and both are well made and engaging. The actors are all great across both films. Characters were so-so in Rogue One but were great in Solo. I'm personally still annoyed that Solo bombed because it's highly entertaining and I would have loved to have seen a sequel with the same characters and actors.
I think there were rumours of a Boba Fett film and an Obi-Wan film, all the same-same stuff and I think they realised that they need to diversify their side stories more for theatrical releases. People want to see new and amazing things. It makes sense to take time off and rethink their strategy. And it's only a 2 year "break" that they are having, it's not long.
It's also unfair to compare Star Wars to the MCU. The Star Wars universe and comic universe are very different beasts. In the comics, characters have always interacted with each other and all the books are linked together, it's a connected universe and it's easy to transplant that to the big screen. Yes, It's genius that Feige was able to pull it off but anyone that reads comics has always dreamed of the movies all being connected together, it's really not rocket science. There are so many good characters in the in the Marvel comics universe, easily over 100 and so it's very easy to have continual new characters introduced with new movies.
Star Wars on the other hand, both in the movies and the Legends cannon do not have a "huge universe" of "things" to pick from. It's extremely condensed compared to Marvel. Many comics and books stick to characters from the films. Many comics and books (over half) stick to the OT time frame. Many comics and books (over half) stick to the struggle against the Empire. Many comics and books stick to locations that we already know about from the Films.
As for characters, new and original characters are very slim from the Legends EU. I'd say that Thrawn and Jaina Solo are probably the 2 most popular and note worthy characters. Even if Disney kept the Legends EU as cannon (which would be impossible) there would still be slim pickings for good films.
Think about that, there are 30+ years worth of Legends EU content and it primarily sticks to the same stuff. That's crazy.
Lucasfilm could still take the Marvel approach in a way. With the MCU films, they take characters and ideas from the comics but they don't transplant the exact same story to the screen. As an example, both the Civil War and Age of Ultron films are entirely different to the comics, they just take inspiration from it. Lucasfilm could take ideas from the Legends cannon, shift things and reinterpret them for the big screen to make new ideas.
But honestly, who knows how the crazy Star Wars fans will react to this. Where as the majority of Marvel fans have loved and embraced what Marvel Studios have done, Star Wars fans might get extremely angry because their precious EU was messed with.
As for China..........
Yeah, of course Disney want that money from that nation. All the movie studios want that money.
But Star Wars has done fine in the past without China and it's doing fine now basically without China.
They own the IP. Whether they have turned a profit from the purchase yet, is irrelevant IMO. The IP is still strong and will stay strong for at least 10 more years I would guess without any reservations. And realistically, I could see it remaining a strong IP for several more generations if they just keep politics out of it for the most part.
Solo was just a film that nobody asked for unfortunately, it's hard for people to accept a different actor in a famous role.
It was very clear that Lucasfilm was going to concentrate on familiar stuff for their side stories with Rogue One and Solo. Neither film is bad and both are well made and engaging. The actors are all great across both films. Characters were so-so in Rogue One but were great in Solo. I'm personally still annoyed that Solo bombed because it's highly entertaining and I would have loved to have seen a sequel with the same characters and actors.
I think there were rumours of a Boba Fett film and an Obi-Wan film, all the same-same stuff and I think they realised that they need to diversify their side stories more for theatrical releases. People want to see new and amazing things. It makes sense to take time off and rethink their strategy. And it's only a 2 year "break" that they are having, it's not long.
It's also unfair to compare Star Wars to the MCU. The Star Wars universe and comic universe are very different beasts. In the comics, characters have always interacted with each other and all the books are linked together, it's a connected universe and it's easy to transplant that to the big screen. Yes, It's genius that Feige was able to pull it off but anyone that reads comics has always dreamed of the movies all being connected together, it's really not rocket science. There are so many good characters in the in the Marvel comics universe, easily over 100 and so it's very easy to have continual new characters introduced with new movies.
Star Wars on the other hand, both in the movies and the Legends cannon do not have a "huge universe" of "things" to pick from. It's extremely condensed compared to Marvel. Many comics and books stick to characters from the films. Many comics and books (over half) stick to the OT time frame. Many comics and books (over half) stick to the struggle against the Empire. Many comics and books stick to locations that we already know about from the Films.
As for characters, new and original characters are very slim from the Legends EU. I'd say that Thrawn and Jaina Solo are probably the 2 most popular and note worthy characters. Even if Disney kept the Legends EU as cannon (which would be impossible) there would still be slim pickings for good films.
Think about that, there are 30+ years worth of Legends EU content and it primarily sticks to the same stuff. That's crazy.
Lucasfilm could still take the Marvel approach in a way. With the MCU films, they take characters and ideas from the comics but they don't transplant the exact same story to the screen. As an example, both the Civil War and Age of Ultron films are entirely different to the comics, they just take inspiration from it. Lucasfilm could take ideas from the Legends cannon, shift things and reinterpret them for the big screen to make new ideas.
But honestly, who knows how the crazy Star Wars fans will react to this. Where as the majority of Marvel fans have loved and embraced what Marvel Studios have done, Star Wars fans might get extremely angry because their precious EU was messed with.
As for China..........
Yeah, of course Disney want that money from that nation. All the movie studios want that money.
But Star Wars has done fine in the past without China and it's doing fine now basically without China.
There is no, absolutely no doubt that Disney wanted to turn Star Wars into a CU. It didn't happen because they had an incompetent running the franchise and they released bad movies people didn't like. There would be no MCU if the first movies were as bad as the last few SW movies. Likewise, SW could be thriving IF THE MOVIES WERE GOOD! This isn't difficult and it doesn't take paragraphs of justification. Just make good movies and the rest will follow They couldn't do it.
This may blow your mind but tons of adults believe in actually paying for the content they view and don’t feel the need to fuel illegal sites to save $8 a month. Crazy I know.When did they buy it? 9 years ago? and they are still 2 billion away from making a penny profit in the lucasfilm division, and to top it off they have alienated the core fanbase and the next generation doesn't give two shits about Stars Wars.
This time last year Gillette was the go to razor brand...
PS Who the fuck is paying for Disney+ to watch the Mandalorian when the bay and KODI exist? That's right, no one outside of the US. Yet another spectacular fuck up by Bob "I have no idea what I am doing" Iger
I've got the complete 1st series f the Mandalorian sitting on my desk on DVD, here
It would help if you actually read the posts before posting. The Star Wars defense is basically “we still make billions”. Which is solid and factual. That’s not even counting books toys software and tv spinoffs. So yeah it’s a pretty rock solid defense actually.It’s cute that Star Wars is allowed to use that as an excuse.
I don’t know whether or not OP is right or wrong, but he has brought numbers and at least tried to think it through. Way to many people opinion in this thread seem to be boil down to “its Star Wars, so it must be popular. Star Wars can do no wrong.”
This is such a weird thing to read.
The MCU is a success story but Star Wars is struggling?
It took Marvel Studios 10 years to start pushing out constant billion dollar box office hits. Five out of the last six films made over a billion dollars. People know that that is a success.
People didn't say the MCU was starting to fail after the release of Ant-Man 2 which "only" made 622 million.
Meanwhile, four out of the five Star Wars movies by Disney make over a billion dollars.
HOLY SHIT FAILURE.