Sorian also brought Burb into contention on D1...
...but then immediately swerved to nin.
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Doctor, Doctor MAFIA | It's not Lupus
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CrimsonFist
Member
I targeted Nin.
Looking at time stamps, both Sorian and Squidy voted Burb at the same time. Either of them could have gone for Nin instead. and caused a tie/tried to swing the vote in that direction if Squidy didn't notice Sorian's vote. Pandas was also around day end, but he probably couldn't have justified swinging his vote if he was scum, since he'd been consistently on Burb.
Pandas was going after Burb from day 1, and Burb was going after Nin quite a bit.
Looking at time stamps, both Sorian and Squidy voted Burb at the same time. Either of them could have gone for Nin instead. and caused a tie/tried to swing the vote in that direction if Squidy didn't notice Sorian's vote. Pandas was also around day end, but he probably couldn't have justified swinging his vote if he was scum, since he'd been consistently on Burb.
Pandas was going after Burb from day 1, and Burb was going after Nin quite a bit.
flatearthpandas
Member
I targeted Sorian.
Not feeling the mega stack still but I'll give it more thought when I'm more awake
Not feeling the mega stack still but I'll give it more thought when I'm more awake
Not entirely true, squidy was already on nin at that point, but his vote isn't on the record due to a broken highlight tag.
I never liked that broken tag, wouldn't be the first time someone has borked formatting on purpose.
There are a few issues.
if there is 1 kill tomorrow after megastack it does not necessarily mean the megastack target was town, either the scum could have randomly targeted the weak doctor, or the weak doctor was already dead.
If there are no kills it does not mean the target is scum. I do not see a rule where scum is forced to kill each night so they could simply choose not to, more or less forcing a mislynch.
The only diagnostically definitive result is 2 night kills, if everyone plays along and there are 2 night kills then the megastack target MUST be scum as the weak doctor.
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Lets analyze n4 after megastacking
we enter the night with 3 players, if town dies without killing scum then town loses. town can prolong the game by
1. jailing the scum > requires 1 of 2 remaining town players to be jailer
2. healing the scum kill > requires cpr ordinary or jailer to target correctly
town can win outright by
Killing the scum player in the night > requires cpr or quack
Not sure what the best strategy for town targeting is on n4.
if there is 1 kill tomorrow after megastack it does not necessarily mean the megastack target was town, either the scum could have randomly targeted the weak doctor, or the weak doctor was already dead.
If there are no kills it does not mean the target is scum. I do not see a rule where scum is forced to kill each night so they could simply choose not to, more or less forcing a mislynch.
The only diagnostically definitive result is 2 night kills, if everyone plays along and there are 2 night kills then the megastack target MUST be scum as the weak doctor.
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Lets analyze n4 after megastacking
we enter the night with 3 players, if town dies without killing scum then town loses. town can prolong the game by
1. jailing the scum > requires 1 of 2 remaining town players to be jailer
2. healing the scum kill > requires cpr ordinary or jailer to target correctly
town can win outright by
Killing the scum player in the night > requires cpr or quack
Not sure what the best strategy for town targeting is on n4.
CrimsonFist
Member
Squidy, why did you target Sorian? You clearly scum read him, but from yesterday's claimed night actions, the only killing role you could have is CPR.
True, but I'm ok with the bolded. We'd lynch our top 2 suspects and still get a guaranteed shot at another day (by taking no actions). Would come down to 3 player lylo (unless we wanted to take a chance with our actions the previous night).
yes if they choose not to perform a night kill we are able to guarantee day 5
I want to hear from nin before I take more about any of this.
Are you ignoring that squidy tried to put nin up first and then only voted back for Burb when I denied him? The time stamps are the same but he had plenty of time to see my vote and put his down on Burb, I was refreshing constantly for updates.
It also wasn't actually only because you showed support. I was still under the impression that Crimson was dodging my question and that's my fault for not noticing it but yes, with what, less than a half hour left? I had to give up on Crimson and go with my second who seemed more likely, leave it to not moving my vote around and you all would have probably lynched FEP or something.
Was going to say this but it looks like dissent against megastack has already been pulled back, only one doctor is dead so odds are high jailer is still there and squidy and I aren't jailer if the other is scum.
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Crimson's question is good, why did you target me again squid?
I'll also own up that I put Burb up on the block on D1 and then promptly put him down in favor of nin but, taking it a step further, why would I bother? I seemed to be the only person interested aside from the one voter, Burb didn't seem likely to pull a 3rd vote and it would be silly to put a partner up for a tie and random chance to die. I'm ballsy but not stupid.
flatearthpandas
Member
What is nin's defense?
And what defense do i need for tunneling scum the entire game?
Well, if you were me that would be textbook tell of scumminess so these days, a little more is needed.
I thought about this a bit already and it made me think of all the times I voted against my real target so that I could swing against them later. I've been doing that as town and in theory it would work for scum, but the benefits are a lot lower.
Overall I townread your D1 vote.
I was referring to the things Crimson just pointed out.
Burb(scum) was attacking nin on D1.
FEP was attacking Burb(scum) on D2.
Bussing is possible but unlikely given how blind we'd be without a dead scum.
Was I being townread D1? Because noone protected me N1. Ty and FEP were on Burb so if a Jailer prevented the kill it's probably one of them.
This also explains Ty's death last night (again assuming he was killed by scum) - searching for the Jailer.
If that's the case then we only have a 50% chance that the Jailer is still alive (and that ignores the possibility that FEP is scum).
This also explains Ty's death last night (again assuming he was killed by scum) - searching for the Jailer.
If that's the case then we only have a 50% chance that the Jailer is still alive (and that ignores the possibility that FEP is scum).
wait for nin to show up.
I know you're scared of losing fast but we're only in plurality lynch, day won't end early.
flatearthpandas
Member
I want nin's action before i go too deep into the possible role rabbit hole. We effectively have that no kill night on just three targets now n1 so maybe that will be good.
I think burb would have wanted to push for a lynch on me or ty though if that was really the case. Possible his plan was to swing off nin later until rl got to him.
I think burb would have wanted to push for a lynch on me or ty though if that was really the case. Possible his plan was to swing off nin later until rl got to him.
flatearthpandas
Member
Second paragraph referring to scum hunting jailor.
ty as quack? really?
Sure, why not? His N1 target was protected. N2 had only 1 kill
Actually everyone should try predictions based on their current reads. It can be surprisingly tricky to get all the night actions to balance out. You'll have to guess Ty's action.
Nin won't be around for another 8 hours or so, so I'm not keen on twiddling our thumbs until he arrives.
Nin won't be around for another 8 hours or so, so I'm not keen on twiddling our thumbs until he arrives.
he has important information for resolving our understanding of last nights sequence of events, I'm not going to speculate on what happened without it.
flatearthpandas
Member
If someone is targeted by cpr and a doc do they live or die?
flatearthpandas
Member
I'm prepared to speculate one scenario without nin's input.
Burbeting: Scumlord
Nin: scumlord
Fep: quack
Squid: weak
Ty: jail
Splinter: doctor
Sorian: cpr
Crimson: naive
Burb basically left nin out of day 1 reads. Voted him early day 2 and then threw shade at me and crimson the rest of the day, possibly hoping to shift votes if we picked up. Nin started the hobo ml early, around the time burb dropped his own vote on me, which he never moved.
This only adds up if a doctor projects a cpr kill.
Burbeting: Scumlord
Nin: scumlord
Fep: quack
Squid: weak
Ty: jail
Splinter: doctor
Sorian: cpr
Crimson: naive
Burb basically left nin out of day 1 reads. Voted him early day 2 and then threw shade at me and crimson the rest of the day, possibly hoping to shift votes if we picked up. Nin started the hobo ml early, around the time burb dropped his own vote on me, which he never moved.
This only adds up if a doctor projects a cpr kill.
flatearthpandas
Member
That fits with my scenario.
I don't think we had a scum kill, my read is that Ty targeted Sorian last night which could have been Ty dying from being weak or Ty being targeted by another town member and killed by them. We had no deaths when Nin claimed not to act and now that nin targeted someone solo that person has died. Your entire read relies on a one out of nin being exactly naive and certain people exactly countering each other. It's more likely that nin is a killing town role because
a. there are 2 for him to be
b. it frees up space in the organization of roles that make our two nights of actions make sense.
Tired of looking it up so many times:
N1
Ty4on -> Burbeting
Burbeting -> Nin
*Splinter -> Ty4on
CrimsonFist -> Ty4on
Flatearthpandas -> Burbeting
Nin -> Nobody
Sorian -> Nobody
Squidyj -> Sorian
No deaths
N2
Ty4on -> Unknown
*Splinter -> Sorian
CrimsonFist -> nin
Flatearthpandas -> Sorian
Nin -> Ty4on
Sorian -> squidyj
Squidyj -> Sorian
Ty4on killed
N1
Ty4on -> Burbeting
Burbeting -> Nin
*Splinter -> Ty4on
CrimsonFist -> Ty4on
Flatearthpandas -> Burbeting
Nin -> Nobody
Sorian -> Nobody
Squidyj -> Sorian
No deaths
N2
Ty4on -> Unknown
*Splinter -> Sorian
CrimsonFist -> nin
Flatearthpandas -> Sorian
Nin -> Ty4on
Sorian -> squidyj
Squidyj -> Sorian
Ty4on killed
After the first night i "assumed" that i could be a potential killing role. Ofc it was risky to say such thing since it would attract some doubt and well burb was the one who jumped really soon into thinking that i could be a mafia goon trying to claim that role.
After i did not act i was still unsure if i should do something or not. After all i decided to do it on someone who would likely not be targeted. Thats why i waited until everyone claimed their targets. I am now pretty sure that i could be a killing target but wont fully say so, there are still a lot of parameters that could go into it.
nin 2.0
It's just a prediction. You can swap Ty and nin in mine (making nin the Quack) and it still works.
Who do you think scum targeted last night?
Eh?
still assuming of course *splinter or what was your question now ?
I don't understand why you waited for everyone to claim targets. You would have to submit a night action before knowing everyone's targets. Are you saying you didn't target Ty? Are you saying you did look at the thread last night but chose not to post?
What?
What?
Why?
What?
Do you mean you think you are a killing role but don't know for sure, or that you have info you haven't told us (i.e. that you lied about N1 or N2)?
I don't understand why you waited for everyone to claim targets. You would have to submit a night action before knowing everyone's targets. Are you saying you didn't target Ty? Are you saying you did look at the thread last night but chose not to post?
What?
What?
Why?
What?
I Did target Ty, lets make that one clear.
I chose Ty because i assumed he was a target or a player that would NOT be targeted by anyone else AND since i assumed i was a player who could be a killing role i chose him because i thought he could be in the end be scum.
Well that ofc was a bad choice.