Honestly, I assumed that squidy was picking the usual fight and you were sheeping for a reaction (evidenced by no vote) but sure, is there an actual reason?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Doctor, Doctor MAFIA | It's not Lupus
- Thread starter cabot
- Start date
Honestly, I assumed that squidy was picking the usual fight and you were sheeping for a reaction (evidenced by no vote) but sure, is there an actual reason?
I know I'm not going to learn anything that I don't already know by picking a fight with you. I just think that it'd be a good idea for town to lynch the scum and we might as well start with you.
Ok, so what makes you think I might be scum?
OH I thought you'd never ask!
For someone who's been thinking about this prefer you didn't come up with much. I didn't consider this at all before my first post of the game, and yet I had a few ideas.
The difference?
You're thinking was restricted to figuring out who does what, while I was tackling the slightly more open question of "how do we win?".
Knowing who does what is useful for both teams, but only scum have a realistic chance of solving that mystery.
VOTE: Sorian
Huzzah!
prefer = pre-game
Close but I'm not trying to solve who does what, I'm trying to solve what I do. "How do we win" is very straight forward. We can say that good old fashioned scum hunting is the key to victory but in a mini game based around such a heavy gimmick, that's not the case without some luck. Without actually planning night actions as a group the game could easily be over by D3 and two lynches isn't enough time to form patterns based on votes. Sure, we could stumble into scum kills at night but again, luck. The real key to success is making good use of your own power if you actually ended up with one but what I want to figure out is if there is a way of doing that without relying on luck like the other methods.
But I just made a bunch of mechanics speculation ;_;
*Ahem*
I gave everyone random roles and made random decisions to created a random game. In this game we agree that half of town (only 8 left after the lynch) are going to target someone during the night. All targets chosen are at random, only difference is scum's NK is from a pool of townies only ofc.
The results after one day were:
Sorian was lynched. He flipped doctor.
We agreed Splinter, Burb, Hobo and FEP would target someone.
In the night, Squidy was killed and flipped doctor.
Splinter targeted Burb
Burb targeted Ty4on
Hobo targeted Burb
FEP targeted Nin
--------------------------------------------------
I know everyone's roles and won't speculate. I'm just curious if anyone thinks this looks like noise or that it might tell us something about the roles?
It's hopeless without announcing our actions in advance. If we do that then scum will quickly know what everyone does, while some of us *might* know what we alone do.
I'm not really seeing the value anyway to be honest.
Unless there are ways to identify some doctors for sure... That would essentially give us confirmed townies...
Mr X does Y which is townie. Maybe they do it to look townie and are in fact scum.
Circular reasoning like that which doesn't get you anywhere.
Sorry, Wine In Front Of Me
What I mean is that scum could lead the scumhunting because they know it looks townie. Or it could just be town being townie.
Now that I write it out I'm not sure wifom was even appropriate, oh well.
You seem very negative. MafiaScum reported this setup having a 75% win ratio for town.
Not sure if that is really scummy though. IIRC you can be overconfident as scum.
So, from that spread, we are able to figure out that FEP is not a quack doc or CPR doc. Burb had two chances to be jailed so the fact that nothing happened to Ty4on means nothing and for the same reasoning, we couldn't rule out Splinter and Hobo as killer docs either.
Well the nurse is a confirmed townie that can essentially reveal as innocent child whenever they see fit. There is another option which is what I've been working towards with this mechanic talk (#scumplans). None of town ever does their night action, we play a vanilla game of mafia as scum has no PRs.
We know that scum targeted squidy.
We know that FEP is not a vig or CPR
Burb is not a vig or CPR UNLESS Splinter or Hobo is the Jailer
Splinter(/Hobo) is not CPR unless Hobo(/Splinter) is the vig. Or Burb is weak and Ty is scum.
Burb, Ty and nin are town IF the weak doctor was active last night.
Maybe there is something to that last line. The rest of it doesn't seem to be getting us answers fast enough and half the field is still untested.
I actually did assume that this was town favored (though not that high, was expecting maybe a 60%), only because with the wide array of death possible, it would be weird to not tag scum by accident before hitting lylo. That said, the unfortunate reality is that there is a scenario where we get one lynch and then the game just ends after tonight, is it likely? No, I don't know the exact odds but it seems low, but would I still want to mitigate that chance? Absolutely.
That's quite the 180 on your last post.
I considered going vanilla but after Heist I don't like our chances - especially now that Ty says this has a 75% winrate for town. The mega stack seems like a direct improvement over vanilla anyway, although it could swing depending on which doctors die (which we have no knowledge of)
I made it so CPR acts as a normal kill when the target isn't attacked.
That means CPR + save = no kill
Remember, it wouldn't actually be vanilla, the nurse is still basically a free town check.
I like that what I says is presumed fact
That 75% stat is from only 12 games tho according to the wiki.
It's a slightly weaker town than in Matrix6.
There you have:
Cop + 6 Ordinaries + 2 Goons
Jailer + 6 Ordinaries + 2 Goons
Doctor + Tracker + 5 Ordinaries + 2 Goons
1 shot BP + Tracker + 5 Ordinaries + 2 Goons
Another issue with the half the field does stuff method is that if the Nurse is in that half of the field they either out them selves as the nurse or have to pretend they targeted someone. Actually no , assuming we don't get scum today they would have gained a doctors power by then so ignore that.
I see where your coming from Sorian on playing it vanilla but I almost feel that's not in the spirit of the game. Guess it could gain us an extra day before lylo though. We would be there Day 3 worse case scenario as opposed to Day 2 worse case scenario (I think Burb said day 2 back up top.)
I see where your coming from Sorian on playing it vanilla but I almost feel that's not in the spirit of the game. Guess it could gain us an extra day before lylo though. We would be there Day 3 worse case scenario as opposed to Day 2 worse case scenario (I think Burb said day 2 back up top.)
Absolute worst case scenario is we lynch town today, 4 people die tonight, game is at 2 town/2 scum at the start of the day tomorrow which means game is over before day 2 even starts. Just so everyone is clear on that possibility.
Hmm
Mega stack is 6 ordinary, 2 goons, innocent child, and a slightly nebulous doctor.
Unless something better comes up I vote we go with that.
I'll sleep on a better way to use the weak doctor, but I'm not hopeful at this point.
Vote Sorian.
Oh yeah go ahead, couldn't hurt
But would we have the same people acting or a different 4?
Ah 5 ordinary. And the doctor's target is announced in advance :/
Also Ty by "go for it" I meant another random day, not spoilers
CrimsonFist
Member
How long would mega stack be sustainable for? It's likely that a doctor of unknown ability will die tonight. Would that mean that it's no longer a viable option tomorrow?
In this set-up (the game, not the RNG that Ty4on has going), I would think prioritizing the regular doctor over any of the killing ones would be key. From the first day and night, it appears that at least one of the killing doctors is in the 4 people who didn't act, one of which is the dead squidy. I'd lynch from the remaining pool of 3 for 6 people going into N2 then have the remaining 2 and 1 random from the initial list act again. Maybe that's non-sense but it makes the most sense to me in boxing scum in their lies.
Viable for what? It depends on what the goal is. Mega stack certainly isn't finding scum because of the obvious they could be holding their kill. It would serve to keep the person alive but so would no one doing anything so that's a moot point.
I think it's only guaranteed for night 1. It's also useful after 1 scum dies (target top suspect, chance to block or kill).
Hmm this sounds like it could be something.
Maybe we should only stack after we've found the first scum (and then we'd be stacking on top suspect).
On the other hand, this post also made me realise I hadn't even considered the possibility of lying scum in the 4 who acted :s
New. I chose the people acting at random. To make it 50% it's 3 this time.
Anyway, here goes:
Splinter is lynched, they flip doctor.
Burb, Hobo and Nin are chosen to target someone.
Everybody survives the night!
Burb targeted Ty4on (again RNG?)
Hobo targeted FEP
Nin targeted Ty4on
Didn't see this. I could run a second game where this is considered.
Uhh
Nope, I've got nothing. I would maybe lynch you hoping Burb or nin blocked you, but they could have just as easily protected you, or several other possibilities.
This looks less reliable than my SickReads, but try Sorian's idea
This is something I can agree with, do keep in mind the easy play of scum just witholding their kill and tricking us into lynching the person stacked on on the basis of them being blocked though. And yes, obviously we can't take what people say as ironclad, the best we could do is try to get everyone to report their targets at the same time but that is hard to do with forums. Weak cop is also useless in the set-up where reporting isn't done until the next day.
Yeah, same people (mostly) and lynching one of the original night 1 people isn't going to get much
If scum want to withhold their night kills while we lynch our top suspects that's fine by me.
Ok. Gotta eat first, but I'll probably roll one more before going to sleep.Yeah, same people (mostly) and lynching one of the original night 1 people isn't going to get much
The roles (I remember) are Burb and Ty4on are scum. That's what made Burb targeting me even weirder.
N2 was weird. Nin the jailor actually targeted me, scum, so I flipped the kill choice (hadn't thought of it before) and RNG choose Burb to make the kill. FEP was the NK target though and Hobo was CPR doctor. Hobo's "kill" on N1 was stopped by Splinter who was ordinary doctor.
Scum targeting anyone didn't do anything.
Nah
Not much unless I die sometime between now and then.
I'm sure some of my null reads will evolve some more.
Sorry for the delay. My reroll:
Ty4on was lynched, they flipped doctor.
Sorian, Squidy, Hobo, FEP were chosen to target someone.
Squidy died and flipped doctor, FEP also died and flipped nurse.
Sorian targeted Nin
Squidy's target is unknown
Hobo targeted Squidy
FEP's target is unknown
(I figured claiming targets beforehand would make the randomness even less realistic and I don't think the weak doc is that useful)
Ty4on was lynched, they flipped doctor.
Sorian, Squidy, Hobo, FEP were chosen to target someone.
Squidy died and flipped doctor, FEP also died and flipped nurse.
Sorian targeted Nin
Squidy's target is unknown
Hobo targeted Squidy
FEP's target is unknown
(I figured claiming targets beforehand would make the randomness even less realistic and I don't think the weak doc is that useful)
you know what kind of person likes to run a bunch of simulations? A Rocket Scientist.
Without testing all you're doing is quackery. It's not rocket science.
flatearthpandas
Member
What the fuck is going on? I thought there was a day start? Also Mr head hurts and under only read the last two or three posts. I'm the doctor!
flatearthpandas
Member
Pretend what i type is in middle English or katakana. Just say it out loud and do your best. Thanks, brexit