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[Sorian]

Sorry for the delay. My reroll:

Ty4on was lynched, they flipped doctor.

Sorian, Squidy, Hobo, FEP were chosen to target someone.

Squidy died and flipped doctor, FEP also died and flipped nurse.

Sorian targeted Nin
Squidy's target is unknown
Hobo targeted Squidy
FEP's target is unknown

(I figured claiming targets beforehand would make the randomness even less realistic and I don't think the weak doc is that useful)

So Hobo appears to be a quack or CPR doc or is trying to cover for himself and is scum. I'm likely not one of those, though squidy could have been a jailer on me. (Thus more of the issue of lost info if people don't claim targets beforehand though it's playing into scum's hand if we do).

VOTE: CrimsonFist

 

[flatearthpandas]

How about this... one person acts tonight only. Everyone else withhold. We choose who acts, they do not disclose their target. We will lose up to two because scum will kill, weak will likely die, quack and cpr will almost definitely kill.

Do we lose anything from nurse claiming? They can keep quiet unless they're chosen to act.

My thoughts are that our roles really aren't that important. We can figure those out slowly.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Sorry, misunderstood weak doctor. Thought it would die if they targeted someone not under attack for some reason.

Odds are weak doctor will not die, but we do miss out on finding scum not knowing their target. Hmm. I'm still feeling it's better to play this as close to vanilla as we can. CPR and Quack will be the closest to confirmed town we can get. Whoever is chosen, target your number one scum. Maybe give a short list of possible targets before night starts.

 

[Sorian]

We don't lose anything from nurse claiming aside from them getting to swerve a lynch later on. I'd actually prefer to leave that claim for later if possible so that scum/vig!doc doesn't target them purposely.

 

[cabot]

Ok so we have 3 doctors that protect, 1 that kills, 1 does nothing, CPR fucks everything up, and nurse wildcard. And 2 goons that presumably don't protect. I'm not sure that works...

Cabot, what happens if someone has 2 protections + the CPR on them?
Protect -> CPR Kill -> Protect = survive
Or
Protect -> Protect -> CPR Kill = die

Doctors who protect only stop a single kill ability.

If there is a protection on a target who also has a kill, the protect will counter the kill.

Cabot are you *sure* we don't learn doctor types when they flip? Seems like we can't get anywhere without that info

[BASTARD] Doctors are not told which power they have received – they receive a standard doctor Role PM. They will also flip as "Doctor". [/BASTARD]

I'm sorry, I thought all doctors would at least be literate. My mistake.

 

[*Splinter]

Ok so at least CPR is a bit simpler than I thought.

We seem to have stalled. Everyone get a vote down in your next post.

 

[nin1000]

I was just saying that your original reasoning was being little faulty .

Oh, yes of course. I agree on that since It was a hasty choice I made in the middlevof the night. Reading through the missed posts now. Please behold
Nin 2.0

 

[cabot]

ATTENTION

Just received an emergency page, our resident drunkard can't do the damn rules properly, and now we have to adjust to avoid litigation.

The following rule has been updated:

Most Doctors who protect only stop a single kill ability.

Carry on, doctors.

 

[*Splinter]

I guess he jailor is the exception

 

[*Splinter]

Couple of corrections to my previous thoughts

Mega stack works as long as the jailor lives (and isn't the target)
CPR counts as a protect until the vig dies (so never more than one kill command in the stack)

Assuming the worst:
1 doctor lynched today, replaced by nurse
N1 stack is effective, 1 doctor dies (either weak doc or Scum's kill target)
Another doctor lynched tomorrow. Enter N2 with 2 unknown roles missing. In the worst case this Jailor and vanilla or weak doc, N2 stack is effective (CPR + weak/vanilla vs vig + scum).
Actually N2 can fail in worst case + the target is CPR/vanilla/weak + scum kill, low probability.
D3 is lylo, so assume we lynch scum. Then we switch to stacking on our top target.

So I think this makes sense, we also get to argue about who gets protection which is possibly useful.

 

[*Splinter]

One option is to protect the nurse. The good thing is this carries the nurse through to lylo, but we lose the benefit of having someone that can shrug off a lynch.

Alternatively we protect the top town. We'd be voting for our top scum and informally voting for our top town, so it's another set of reads.

Thots?

 

[*Splinter]

Another note: assuming no scum deaths, day 3 is lylo unless BOTH nights have no kill (fat chance)

The other option is to target whoever we want, watch the world burn and just hope we hit scum before we lose.

 

[nin1000]

So, mega stacks mean we all target one single person? Did I understand that correctly doctor?

 

[nin1000]

One option is to protect the nurse. The good thing is this carries the nurse through to lylo, but we lose the benefit of having someone that can shrug off a lynch.

I would love to protect the nurse. But the thing is, who is a nurse? We don't want any nurse to claim that since it would essentially kind her N1. So it's a guessing game.

Alternatively we protect the top town. We'd be voting for our top scum and informally voting for our top town, so it's another set of reads.

Thots?

Typical mafia play then. It's OK I guess. Hope we don't lynch our nurse today though lol

 

[nin1000]

Another note: assuming no scum deaths, day 3 is lylo unless BOTH nights have no kill (fat chance)

The other option is to target whoever we want, watch the world burn and just hope we hit scum before we lose.

That's would be a lot of fun but in the end also a huge cluster fuck. ( sorry for the harsh words)

 

[Burbeting]

What is most important is that we'll try to avoid a situation where 3-4 people would die the next night. 4 dying would potentially turn the game into an automatic scum victory, while 3 would push it to dangerously close.

 

[*Splinter]

Burb, nin, votes please. Or thoughts at least.

And I agree that the clusterfuck isn't a great plan, it's basically praying to RNGsus

 

[Burbeting]

In terms of scum-reads, there obviously isn't lot of material to go for right now (We have 2.5 pages of conversation right now). It seems that Sorian is the vote leader with two votes right now, but I'm not really getting scum-vibes from him right now. He seems to mostly post like a town Sorian would, compared to scum Sorian, who I feel is maybe little more aggressive than his town counterpart. Well obviously scum-sorian could try to adjust his behaviour from his earlier scum plays, but that's little wifom-y.

Right now I feel like that *Splinter is my top town, mostly because I feel that he is trying to actually push the game forwards, and is giving lots of ideas about how to proceed with the night targetting. I do disagree with his reasoning against Sorian, somewhat.

As for top scum, I feel most wary about people who seem to have been pretty silent, and putting out mostly really safe and non-confrontational posts so far. It's possible that scum would try to stay on the sidelines for now, and take a wait-and-see approach. With the night phases still being bit of a question mark since we haven't decided on how to approach it, the scum might want to prioritise on surviving the day phases right now.

Right now I feel that the most safe posters are Nin, CrimsonFist and Flatearthpandas. Nin had that faulty logic suggestion on the early-game, but otherwise he hasn't really said anything that contributive to the game imo. Crimson has made some contributive posts, but those posts have been quite small and vague-ish, which makes me feel uneasy. FEP didn't post first at all, which could fit the profile of a scum being afraid of posting first (so that they don't slip up something), and I mostly disagree with his plan of just one person acting each night (we won't obtain much information from that, and in the worst case scenario we just let CPR or Quack to kill someone with absolutely no way to counter it).

I also feel little weird about Ty4on, but that's more of a gut thing right now. I just feel like his simulations might be a scum way of seeing contributive, while not really letting us learn much.

But right now I feel that my vote goes here:

VOTE: flatearthpandas

 

[nin1000]

Burb, nin, votes please. Or thoughts at least.

And I agree that the clusterfuck isn't a great plan, it's basically praying to RNGsus

Twill habe to read through the 4 pages again. The little vibes I will gather will have to be sufficient for a vote. It won't be a good vote though since it's very little posts we got. Give me a minute.

Thought would be that i would rather have everyone agree on who to target. I know somehow mafia and or another player who will try their shinenigans, will effectively up the' plan' but this is at least something.

 

[*Splinter]

I do disagree with his reasoning against Sorian, somewhat.

Why?

Also I slightly disagree about Ty4on. It could just be scum trying to look helpful, so I shouldn't town read him for it (although I am a bit), but his simulations were definitely helpful in giving us a real example to consider, to see how feasible it actually is to gain information and plan our night phase accordingly.

I agree on Crimson and FEP at a gut level. Maybe nin too but he's harder to read.

 

[Burbeting]

Actually, I want all three (FEP, Crimson and Nin) to answer these two questions:

1. Who is your top candidate for scum right now?
2. What do you think is the best plan with the night targetting, going forward?

---

I responded to that first question above, but for the second one, I might not be against mega-stacking, since it does mean that the amount of night kills would be minimalised, so at least the most disastrous result (game ending with 4 people dying N1) would be averted. It does mean that we will obtain little information though.

---

Why?

I guess it's more of a gut thing, but like I said earlier, I see town Sorian more than his scum self in the posts he has been making. I do agree that it's little weird that he didn't seem to come to the game with lot, despite "thinking about it lots", but I don't know if it's actually that scummy.

 

[nin1000]

Actually, I want all three (FEP, Crimson and Nin) to answer these two questions:

1. Who is your top candidate for scum right now?
2. What do you think is the best plan with the night targetting, going forward?

---

I responded to that first question above, but for the second one, I might not be against mega-stacking, since it does mean that the amount of night kills would be minimalised, so at least the most disastrous result (game ending with 4 people dying N1) would be averted. It does mean that we will obtain little information though.

---



I guess it's more of a gut thing, but like I said earlier, I see town Sorian more than his scum self in the posts he has been making. I do agree that it's little weird that he didn't seem to come to the game with lot, despite "thinking about it lots", but I don't know if it's actually that scummy.

1. Right now it would be hobo, since he said almost nothing ( I know the same can be applied to me lol) and did not contribute that much. Panda would be as a close second. With Crimson as the third candidate


Squid did asked the right questions and was contributing also, quality over quantity.
Other players such as *Splinter, Ty4on got the conversation going and in my mind tried to find a way with as little deaths as possible.

2. My thoughts on what to do tonight?
The stacking on one single target would be possible but as i said earlier the plan would only go well if everyone does as told. I can't and don't expect that to happen. In the end we wake up and we have to figure out what happened. But and here it comes it will be a lot better than the other option. Everyone does what he wants to.

So count me in on team #stacking.


VOTE:Hobohodo

 

[Burbeting]

I didn't count Hobo in my list of non-contributives because I felt that his idea of half of the people targetting is a viable tactic, and worthy of looking in to. But he has been quite quiet as well.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Digging the echo chamber, fellas. Much town very scum hunting.

I don't know if you read my first post of the day but i was clearly in no shape to be posting when the day opened at like 5am for me. I am not proud bit i certainly was lurking, afraid to somehow reveal myself.

I'm just getting off work so I'll read through again before i vote but I'm most wary of would-be town leaders right now. We can fuck ourselves pretty easily. Being scum in this game does not involve much lying, seeing as how no one knows dick. Scum in this game will be directing town into stupid circle jerks, mislynches, and allowing ourselves to get thinned out too quickly.

I still like my idea of only one person acting on their scum reads and revealing their target the next day. We control the information flow, we keep night kills manageable, and with luck we find our own killing roles and get some confirmed town before lylo.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Wasn't lurking, lol

 

[Burbeting]

There is another problem with just one person targeting per night. What if scum just kills said person, since self-targeting is not allowed?

 

[Ty4on]

I also feel little weird about Ty4on, but that's more of a gut thing right now. I just feel like his simulations might be a scum way of seeing contributive, while not really letting us learn much.

But right now I feel that my vote goes here:

VOTE: flatearthpandas

Do you like my simulations?

 

[flatearthpandas]

There is another problem with just one person targeting per night. What if scum just kills said person, since self-targeting is not allowed?

What if they do? They can't do that every night, odds are scum will be chosen to act sooner or later. We still learn more than we do by piling everyone on one target. We can't even utilize the weak doc in that strat because the jailer will remove the goon and weak doc won't technically target them. Or am i wrong?

 

[*Splinter]

What if they do? They can't do that every night, odds are scum will be chosen to act sooner or later. We still learn more than we do by piling everyone on one target. We can't even utilize the weak doc in that strat because the jailer will remove the goon and weak doc won't technically target them. Or am i wrong?

We have 2 nights before lylo. We can't exactly go around the group gathering info.

The weak doc is useless anyway

 

[*Splinter]

New idea

Assign everyone to 3 groups.

Pick 3 targets, one for each group.

Excluding the 3 targets, there will be 0, 1, or 2 deaths.

0 deaths: Scum targeted one of our targets (unlikely) AND either weak doc was a target or all targets were town.

1 death: Scum targeted one of our targets (unlikely) OR either weak doc was a target or all targets were town.

2 deaths: 1 is the scum kill, the other was the weak doc. This should give us a 50/50 thunderdome, on day 2, between 2 of our 3 targets.

2 death scenario is kind of useful... Thing is scum would know it's coming and could withhold their kill, putting us back in the much less useful 1 death camp.

Can we build on this in night 2 to make it more useful?

Bleh.

 

[Ty4on]

So Hobo appears to be a quack or CPR doc or is trying to cover for himself and is scum. I'm likely not one of those, though squidy could have been a jailer on me. (Thus more of the issue of lost info if people don't claim targets beforehand though it's playing into scum's hand if we do).

VOTE: CrimsonFist

How would you continue? Who should be the lynch target (or from what pool should they lynch) and who should target someone the next night?

I think we can get some intel this way.

 

[Ty4on]

New idea

Assign everyone to 3 groups.

Pick 3 targets, one for each group.

Excluding the 3 targets, there will be 0, 1, or 2 deaths.

0 deaths: Scum targeted one of our targets (unlikely) AND either weak doc was a target or all targets were town.

1 death: Scum targeted one of our targets (unlikely) OR either weak doc was a target or all targets were town.

2 deaths: 1 is the scum kill, the other was the weak doc. This should give us a 50/50 thunderdome, on day 2, between 2 of our 3 targets.

2 death scenario is kind of useful... Thing is scum would know it's coming and could withhold their kill, putting us back in the much less useful 1 death camp.

Can we build on this in night 2 to make it more useful?

Bleh.

This calls for a simulation.

I don't quite get the scenarios. 1 death especially. What does that tell us about the weak doctor?

In this example none of the targets die and the only kill would be scum kill:
CPR + vig + goon (nothing) = no kill
Weak + jail + none = no kill (target is town)
Ord + goon (nothing) = no kill

Assuming a doctor lynch, the nurse automatically replaces them.

 

[Ty4on]

The "all targets are town" bit is especially puzzling. Two targets could've been scum, they just couldn't have been targeted by the weak doctor.

 

[flatearthpandas]

We could see up to four kills in the three group scenario. Scum kill. Weak doc. Quack paired with scum or useless doc, cpr paired with scum or useless doc.

Then we lose.

Not likely to happen, but possible. Even assuming that doesn't happen, we don't really learn anything for sure until d3.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Also,

Vote: Burbeting

Only one actively trying to control the town imo. Sorian's head seems to be in the right place, top town for me. Splinter is putting ideas out, but some deadly flaws in them. I don't feel great about that but we might find something good.

 

[*Splinter]

The "all targets are town" bit is especially puzzling. Two targets could've been scum, they just couldn't have been targeted by the weak doctor.

Yep, that was wrong. So that plan is only useful if we get 2 deaths, which scum would be able to avoid.

 

[Ty4on]

[...] FEP didn't post first at all, which could fit the profile of a scum being afraid of posting first (so that they don't slip up something), and I mostly disagree with his plan of just one person acting each night (we won't obtain much information from that, and in the worst case scenario we just let CPR or Quack to kill someone with absolutely no way to counter it).

[...]

But right now I feel that my vote goes here:

VOTE: flatearthpandas

Also,

Vote: Burbeting

Only one actively trying to control the town imo. Sorian's head seems to be in the right place, top town for me. Splinter is putting ideas out, but some deadly flaws in them. I don't feel great about that but we might find something good.

Two weird votes. The latter is an OMGUS as well.

 

[*Splinter]

We could see up to four kills in the three group scenario. Scum kill. Weak doc. Quack paired with scum or useless doc, cpr paired with scum or useless doc.

Then we lose.

Not likely to happen, but possible. Even assuming that doesn't happen, we don't really learn anything for sure until d3.

Possible but extremely unlikely. You would need Jailer, ordinary and weak on scum*, everyone else on two town targets with vig and cpr separated.

I don't even like that plan, but I really don't like your criticism of it (and then using it against me in your next post).

In fact I don't like any of FEP's posts

VOTE: flatearthpandas

He even defended Sorian for goodness sake!

 

[*Splinter]

*Cabot if Jailer and weak both target scum, does weak die?

 

[Burbeting]

Do you like my simulations?

They were interesting to read and think about, but I don't know if we learned lot of important information out of them, which made me question just how much help we got from them.

What if they do? They can't do that every night, odds are scum will be chosen to act sooner or later. We still learn more than we do by piling everyone on one target. We can't even utilize the weak doc in that strat because the jailer will remove the goon and weak doc won't technically target them. Or am i wrong?

Like Splinter said, we don't have the luxury of multiple nights worth of checking out information right now. In one person checks the worst case scenario could be that the one person is CPR/Quack who kills someone town, while scum simply kill the CPR/Quack as well. We get multiple night kills, and not much information at all, other that the one targeting was CPR/Quack.

The question about the weak doc and Jailer is a valid one, though. Can cabot answer that?

 

[Ty4on]

They were interesting to read and think about, but I don't know if we learned lot of important information out of them, which made me question just how much help we got from them.

Don't know??? We?

Did you learn anything from them?

 

[Sorian]

Why?

Also I slightly disagree about Ty4on. It could just be scum trying to look helpful, so I shouldn't town read him for it (although I am a bit), but his simulations were definitely helpful in giving us a real example to consider, to see how feasible it actually is to gain information and plan our night phase accordingly.

I agree on Crimson and FEP at a gut level. Maybe nin too but he's harder to read.

Reminds me of whoever in danganronpa started doing those crazy spreadsheets to look helpful. I'm on the fence with Ty4on, which is good, that usually means he is town, but him runing these simulations means nothing in terms of his alignment.

New idea

Assign everyone to 3 groups.

Pick 3 targets, one for each group.

Excluding the 3 targets, there will be 0, 1, or 2 deaths.

0 deaths: Scum targeted one of our targets (unlikely) AND either weak doc was a target or all targets were town.

1 death: Scum targeted one of our targets (unlikely) OR either weak doc was a target or all targets were town.

2 deaths: 1 is the scum kill, the other was the weak doc. This should give us a 50/50 thunderdome, on day 2, between 2 of our 3 targets.

2 death scenario is kind of useful... Thing is scum would know it's coming and could withhold their kill, putting us back in the much less useful 1 death camp.

Can we build on this in night 2 to make it more useful?

Bleh.

This wasn't thought out all the way I don't think? It doesn't seem to take into account the quack and CPR docs being on different targets and all the protection being clumped elsewhere, this could still lead to 3 or even 4 kills.

How would you continue? Who should be the lynch target (or from what pool should they lynch) and who should target someone the next night?

I think we can get some intel this way.

This one is more awkward because Hobo seems to be one of the killing docs. Though he could also just be the useless doc and scum targeted squidy. I'd probably still lynch from the group who hasn't acted yet (which would be 3 in this scenario? Splinter, Crimson, Nin?) and then have the remaining two act that night. If we lynch scum, Hobo can act again on our next top scum pick, if we lynch town, Hobo stays home and Sorian would act like a normal doctor would.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Possible but extremely unlikely. You would need Jailer, ordinary and weak on scum*, everyone else on two town targets with vig and cpr separated.

I don't even like that plan, but I really don't like your criticism of it (and then using it against me in your next post).

In fact I don't like any of FEP's posts

VOTE: flatearthpandas

He even defended Sorian for goodness sake!

We've both submitted ideas for the night, mine is the one that can't possibly lose us the game on n1 and is more likely to give us usable information. But I'm the scum. Okay.

Anyway, bed time for me. I'll try to be up before day end. If i sleep through and don't end up lynched, I'll follow whatever plan we end up with. I still think i have the best one so far but w/e. Scum game here is basically talking town into bad plans and bad lynches. They don't need to lie about anything at this point, there's not much to slip up on.

I do think the best course of action will be getting as many people acting at night as possible. I don't want to risk an instant lose or even d2 mylo though so i think we can get safer while still getting more movement. Thinking more on piling half the group now. Maybe that is the way to go. Hm.

 

[Burbeting]

Don't know??? We?

Did you learn anything from them?

Well looking at the simulations, it is possible to make some predictions about what roles are possible for some of the people who are chosen. However, what makes this problematic is that there is a fairly good chance that scum is in the list of people who were chosen as one of the four, and there is no reason for us to believe that they are going to be truthful about who they were targeting. This untruth might throw us off while trying to make definitive conclusions, especially if there is two scum in that list of four.

There could be a chanche to figure out the lies, but I would assume it would also mean there would be a need for multiple nights of experimentation with different set-ups. But it doesn't seem we are going to get that luxury.

 

[Sorian]

If it's not crystal clear, I'd want to lynch from Crimson or squidy today. Crimson is oddly quiet, almost reminds me of his survivor heist game, like a wallflower. It almost borders on inactivity but his few posts went out of their way to ask questions while avoiding specifics to this group.

Then call me OMGUS but squidy seemed to line me up, get a bite with Splinter, and then ducked out. It's not behavior that I would expect, I'm not dumb, squidy isn't always his hyper agressive self but this seems very hands off so far. Scum has surely realized that this is a very quick game if they can both survive for a day or two so I'd imagine the plan is stay in the background and be forgettable.

In terms of meh players, I'd consider nin, not feeling FEP, and Burb is more of a toss up, it's that feeling of "I don't want to lynch a contributor because if we are wrong then less activity" but he does seem to be acting just a little bit staged and it's coming across stiff in his posts.

 

[Burbeting]

Can we get a vote-count, cabot?

 

[Ty4on]

Well looking at the simulations, it is possible to make some predictions about what roles are possible for some of the people who are chosen. However, what makes this problematic is that there is a fairly good chance that scum is in the list of people who were chosen as one of the four, and there is no reason for us to believe that they are going to be truthful about who they were targeting. This untruth might throw us off while trying to make definitive conclusions, especially if there is two scum in that list of four.

There could be a chanche to figure out the lies, but I would assume it would also mean there would be a need for multiple nights of experimentation with different set-ups. But it doesn't seem we are going to get that luxury.

Scum targets are do nothing in the simulations I run. If there are scum in the group of people targeting I roll their "targets" like I roll the other targets and separately from the NK.

 

[Sorian]

Scum targets are do nothing in the simulations I run. If there are scum in the group of people targeting I roll their "targets" like I roll the other targets and separately from the NK.

He's talking about the fact that scum will report lies to us in the lists. On N1, it's 4 people acting and if two of those end up being lies, it's a very iffy data set to start on.

 

[*Splinter]

Reminds me of whoever in danganronpa started doing those crazy spreadsheets to look helpful. I'm on the fence with Ty4on, which is good, that usually means he is town, but him runing these simulations means nothing in terms of his alignment.

Maybe it was worded poorly, but that's pretty much what I said: simulations mean nothing but I townread him anyway.

This wasn't thought out all the way I don't think? It doesn't seem to take into account the quack and CPR docs being on different targets and all the protection being clumped elsewhere, this could still lead to 3 or even 4 kills.

Possible but unlikely, as I said. Needs an almost unique distribution of roles, and even then it's only 4 kills if Weak ignores the Jailer for some reason.

3 kills would suck, but that's basically the choice we have:
Low info, chance of multiple kills (groups, clusterfuck, etc)
No info, limited kills (vanilla, megastack, etc)

Since I think we're overvaluing the possible info gain, I'm still pushing for megastack. We're also running out of time so need people to make their position clear asap.

 

[*Splinter]

We've both submitted ideas for the night, mine is the one that can't possibly lose us the game on n1 and is more likely to give us usable information.* But I'm the scum. Okay.

Anyway, bed time for me. I'll try to be up before day end. If i sleep through and don't end up lynched, I'll follow whatever plan we end up with. I still think i have the best one so far but w/e. Scum game here is basically talking town into bad plans and bad lynches. They don't need to lie about anything at this point**, there's not much to slip up on.

I do think the best course of action will be getting as many people acting at night as possible. I don't want to risk an instant lose or even d2 mylo though so i think we can get safer while still getting more movement. Thinking more on piling half the group now. Maybe that is the way to go. Hm.

* Citation needed
** Contradictory