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Doctor, Doctor MAFIA | It's not Lupus

*Splinter

Member
Well looking at the simulations, it is possible to make some predictions about what roles are possible for some of the people who are chosen. However, what makes this problematic is that there is a fairly good chance that scum is in the list of people who were chosen as one of the four, and there is no reason for us to believe that they are going to be truthful about who they were targeting. This untruth might throw us off while trying to make definitive conclusions, especially if there is two scum in that list of four.

There could be a chanche to figure out the lies, but I would assume it would also mean there would be a need for multiple nights of experimentation with different set-ups. But it doesn't seem we are going to get that luxury.
Exactly. So it shows us how unreliable that plan would be.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Scum targets are do nothing in the simulations I run. If there are scum in the group of people targeting I roll their "targets" like I roll the other targets and separately from the NK.

Sorian already responded with what I was trying to say. If there is scum in the list, their targets are most likely lies, and it makes the information gathered during the night much more doubtful. Even more so, if there is two scum chosen in that list of four.

Since I think we're overvaluing the possible info gain, I'm still pushing for megastack. We're also running out of time so need people to make their position clear asap.

I think stacking is the best way to go right now. It minimalises the chances of multiple night kills, so we get more time in terms of day phases. The other proposed plans either seem to give us even less information than stacking IMO, or leave the possibility of 3-4 night kills open, which is not the preferable outcome.
 

Sorian

Banned
There is one thing when we are talking about little info gained or not that I think people are forgetting. Just because the group didn't get a lot of info doesn't mean it was a waste. Going back to Ty4on's last example, squidy and FEP were dead so whatever, we have no real chance of knowing exactly what they were but Hobo and I acted and are still alive. The group can have doubt because one or both of us could have been scum there but each individual does learn a lot about themselves. I would know that I can start acting like a regular doc, it's unlikely that I'm a killer of any sort. On the flip side, Hobo is likelier to be a killer of some sort (or just the bum useless role) so he would later target based on that fact and would go after scum. If this comes down to the wire and play might be needed during the final night phase and being able to at least know if you are in the protection or killing category is going to help a lot in making that informed decision.

I'm in the camp of half of the people acting and hopefully choosing different targets. Just assigning people let's scum pick off someone from that list getting us less info the following day. I'd propose something a bit more behind the scenes so that scum can't know what we are doing, like making a 1-10 roll and acting if you are in the higher 50% and holstering if you are in the lower 50%.
 

*Splinter

Member
Hmm not a bad plan. A vig/CPR "might" be able to identify themselves and adapt their later play accordingly, although in that case scum would be able to identify (and remove) them as well.

It also has a higher chance of 3 deaths than the plan you just criticized for allowing 3 deaths. 4 deaths is also possible.

------

Splinter - Megastack
flatearthpandas - is scum
Burbeting - Megastack
Sorian - Diet Clusterfuck
 
There are a lot of benefits to assigning everyone a target and everyone moving tonight. We run the chance of instant losing but we will likely learn some good info. Town basically controls the scum kill in this situation.

First vote: one person moves and reports target the next day.
Essentially playing vanilla but with a chance of really great info (quack or cpr) for very little risk. Cons are that scum can kill indiscriminately.

Second vote: everyone target the person after you in the list. We control scum kill and will identify a few roles. Risk losing but reward is higher than other suggested controlled actions. And we control the scum kill.

Third vote: No one moves and play vanilla.

No vote for any of the other suggestions. Higher or same risk as everyone assigned targets but less concrete info. Low risk like dogpile runs a very real risk of having no benefit and also allowing scum to kill indiscriminately.
 

cabot

Member
ty4on (0)
sorian 54 (151)

sorian (1)
squidyj 83
*splinter 104 (188)

crimsonfist (1)
sorian 151

flatearthpandas (2)
burbeting 168
*splinter 188

hobohodo (1)
nin1000 172

burbeting (1)
flatearthpandas 185

DAY 1 ENDS:
red_1470344400.png
 
Splinter - Megastack
flatearthpandas - is scum
Burbeting - Megastack
Sorian - Diet Clusterfuck

The scum would be in jail, which comes before the protect, so no.

Splinter - (useless) Megastack
flatearthpandas - used actual logic to discard useless garbage and submit an actual strategy
Burbeting - (useless) Megastack
Sorian - Diet Clusterfuck

Ftfy


Also, to iterate on why full assignment everyone moving controls scum kill, the first night they will only have two targets they know for sure can be killed. Choosing any other target runs a very high risk of them wasting the kill on a protected target.
 

*Splinter

Member
There are a lot of benefits to assigning everyone a target and everyone moving tonight. We run the chance of instant losing but we will likely learn some good info. Town basically controls the scum kill in this situation.

First vote: one person moves and reports target the next day.
Essentially playing vanilla but with a chance of really great info (quack or cpr) for very little risk. Cons are that scum can kill indiscriminately.

Second vote: everyone target the person after you in the list. We control scum kill and will identify a few roles. Risk losing but reward is higher than other suggested controlled actions. And we control the scum kill.

Third vote: No one moves and play vanilla.

No vote for any of the other suggestions. Higher or same risk as everyone assigned targets but less concrete info. Low risk like dogpile runs a very real risk of having no benefit and also allowing scum to kill indiscriminately.
Your first option is better than vanilla but not by much. But fair enough.

Your 2nd option is the best for info, but almost guarantees 3 kills. 4 is also not that unlikely and ends the game.

Your 3rd option is a straight downgrade from megastack, which you then rule out for being too low info?
 

Burbeting

Banned
I guess the question boils down to what is more valuable: Information or time. The megastars seems to maximise the amount of time we have, but gives minimal information. Other plans might give more info, but they also might cut down time.
 

Burbeting

Banned
I'm not really fond of FEP's attitude in his last posts. He just comes off as aggressive and dismissive, which is kinda weird when he accuses other people from controlling the game.
 

Hobohodo

Member
I'm not a fan of the mega stack idea. I feel it's going to be difficult to work out what happened when so much is centred on one person. I'm in favour of half of us targeting which ever players we want as it doesn't give the game away to scum completely and as Sorian has since pointed out (from Tys simulations) it also allows those who acted to work stuff out about them selves a little bit more clearly.
 

*Splinter

Member
I'm not a fan of the mega stack idea. I feel it's going to be difficult to work out what happened when so much is centred on one person. I'm in favour of half of us targeting which ever players we want as it doesn't give the game away to scum completely and as Sorian has since pointed out (from Tys simulations) it also allows those who acted to work stuff out about them selves a little bit more clearly.
It isn't an attempt to work out what happens, it's there to prolong the game.
Why is this info so important?
Why does stacking "give the game away to scum completely"?
 

Hobohodo

Member
It isn't an attempt to work out what happens, it's there to prolong the game.
Why is this info so important?
Why does stacking "give the game away to scum completely"?

Hadn't tweaked it's there to prolong the game, but with such a small player count how long will it actually prolong us for and is that trade off worth not being able to maybe work out what it is we do.

Which info? The potential doctor roles we are? I feel it's pretty self explanatory why we would want to know that.

The comment about giving the game away to scum was in regards to the players that would act choosing randomly/without the group consensus as opposed to saying 'Hey I'm going to act on Y today'. I don't feel that stacking is giving the game away to scum.
 

Ty4on

Member
Why can't I code?
I'm not a fan of the mega stack idea. I feel it's going to be difficult to work out what happened when so much is centred on one person. I'm in favour of half of us targeting which ever players we want as it doesn't give the game away to scum completely and as Sorian has since pointed out (from Tys simulations) it also allows those who acted to work stuff out about them selves a little bit more clearly.

I kinda agree with this. Unless we really want to protect someone the mega stack doesn't seem that useful. It basically gives the Mafia free reign apart from the person stacked and if a scum member is stacked.

I don't understand the big issue with scums faking whom they targeted. They can't achieve a whole lot with clever claiming. If two people claimed killing the same person they were either really unlucky (something like null + vig) or one is scum. This means if only one person claims killing someone (and it wasn't the only kill) not only can we be quite sure they're a vig/CPR, but by extension we can also be fairly confident they're town as well.

This of course assumes claiming as soon as possible so scum can't wait until they see nobody is taking credit, but I think we'll find it scummy regardless if someone claims their target much later. Maybe we could agree on when to claim so everybody can chime in? FEP's timezone makes day start hard for him (he is the most likely lynch target tho...).
 

Hobohodo

Member
Sorian: I'm feeling good about Sorian. He got discussion rolling on what strategy we should use and has been quite active in looking at what we gain from Ty4on's model, so it remains consistent with his interests in the mechanics.

Splinter: Down on ideas that involve working out what we do. Valid reason is given for it but I do feel we have seen though Ty's model that there is some merit to it at this point. In summary feeling uncertain here, I don't really agree with much that he says but I also feel he is trying to keep the game moving.

Burbeting: Puzzling out a lot of possibilities in regards to the games mechanics, I get the feeling that this is all legitimate from the amount of posts that have been made.

Ty4on: A lot of simulation stuff which has been useful for looking at the effectiveness of the 'half players act' strategy. I agree with Burb that this does allow him to be active without revealing much about himself, but I feel if it was a ruse he wouldn't have bothered to do as many as he has.

squidyj: Don't feel that squidyj is being his usual self but this is such an odd set up that I don't know how much can be put into that. Lean scummier at the moment.

flatearthpandas: Disagree with the comment that Burb is trying to control town, is that applies to anyone I would say it's Sorian or Splinter. Other than that not much to say.

CrimsonFist & nin1000: Pot calling the kettle black and all that but not much posted here so not much to say. I feel happier with nin's posts than crimsons.

Vote:flatearthpandas I would rather put a vote on Crimson or Squidy but Squidy has no votes and I don't want to cause a tie by voting for Crimson. Sorian is the only other player to have had two votes at one point in the game and I'd like him to stick around for now, so I'm assisting in giving FEP a lead.
 

squidyj

Member
Sorian: I'm feeling good about Sorian. He got discussion rolling on what strategy we should use and has been quite active in looking at what we gain from Ty4on's model, so it remains consistent with his interests in the mechanics.
Sorian is the only other player to have had two votes at one point in the game and I'd like him to stick around for now, so I'm assisting in giving FEP a lead.

you're going to feel good about sorian all the way up until town loses.
 

Sorian

Banned
Multi quote worked out of order on mobile if anyone is curious why the earliest post came last.

It isn't an attempt to work out what happens, it's there to prolong the game.
Why is this info so important?
Why does stacking "give the game away to scum completely"?

The info of what we do in a mini game based around a gimmick? Are you really asking why that's important? Mega stack doesn't give the game away to scum though, I agree on that, they have no PR so we are in control of we want to play the gimmick or play vanilla.

you're going to feel good about sorian all the way up until town loses.

Oh good, you're back. So tell me what you think about what I've said about you.

Hmm not a bad plan. A vig/CPR "might" be able to identify themselves and adapt their later play accordingly, although in that case scum would be able to identify (and remove) them as well.

It also has a higher chance of 3 deaths than the plan you just criticized for allowing 3 deaths. 4 deaths is also possible.

------

Splinter - Megastack
flatearthpandas - is scum
Burbeting - Megastack
Sorian - Diet Clusterfuck

I didn't criticize your plan because it allowed 3 deaths, I criticized it because you outlined conclusions but didn't seem to take the town killing powers into consideration.

------

You all know that FEP is always aggressive right? This isn't a new thing. I am wondering if there is an ulterior motive with how he is trying to steer the plan but get out of here with the garbage that he has been aggressive in his last few posts.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Squidyj, what do you think is the best plan for town to take in regards of using doctor powers?

You all know that FEP is always aggressive right? This isn't a new thing. I am wondering if there is an ulterior motive with how he is trying to steer the plan but get out of here with the garbage that he has been aggressive in his last few posts.

Frankly, I haven't been playing with FEP much outside Harry Potter, where I died pretty early, and he was a replacement, so I don't have good grasp on his play-style.


---

Where the heck is Crimson? And nin, for that matter.
 

*Splinter

Member
The info of what we do in a mini game based around a gimmick? Are you really asking why that's important? Mega stack doesn't give the game away to scum though, I agree on that, they have no PR so we are in control of we want to play the gimmick or play vanilla.
I wanted to hear Hobo say it. He seems to be parroting you pretty hardcore so far.

I didn't criticize your plan because it allowed 3 deaths, I criticized it because you outlined conclusions but didn't seem to take the town killing powers into consideration.
Fair enough. I wasnt ignoring the dead targets, just looking at what we would learn. (I don't think we learn much from the main targets dying except that we had a bad distribution).
 

*Splinter

Member
You all know that FEP is always aggressive right? This isn't a new thing. I am wondering if there is an ulterior motive with how he is trying to steer the plan but get out of here with the garbage that he has been aggressive in his last few posts.
Well, if you say so

VOTE: Sorian
 

Hobohodo

Member
At the risk of detracting from discussions about voting for the last hour, do we have a game plan we wanna agree on tonight or we just going to have everyone do whatever?
 

Sorian

Banned
Squidyj, what do you think is the best plan for town to take in regards of using doctor powers?



Frankly, I haven't been playing with FEP much outside Harry Potter, where I died pretty early, and he was a replacement, so I don't have good grasp on his play-style.


---

Where the heck is Crimson? And nin, for that matter.

The golden question, yet I seem to be the only one that cares, how odd.

Well, if you say so

VOTE: Sorian

[faux outrage]

Considering this set-up is all RNG at this point, I'll be voting to defend myself obviously if it comes to it.

Also, I am now here full time until eod.
 

Hobohodo

Member
It's kinda hard on deciding on the plan when only around half has told their preference...

Those of us who are here could try to agree something and hope that those who aren't take a look here before committing to any night actions? Could result in a slight plan as opposed to no plan that way.
 

Ty4on

Member
Ty4on, are you planning to vote?

Maybe. I'm mostly feeling Nin and Burb.

Everybody doing their own thing (at random) isn't that devastating. I had to roll a bunch of games to get one where only five remained and all Goons were alive. There were a surprising amount of games where both Goons were dead after N1.
 

Hobohodo

Member
Maybe. I'm mostly feeling Nin and Burb.

Everybody doing their own thing (at random) isn't that devastating. I had to roll a bunch of games to get one where only five remained and all Goons were alive. There were a surprising amount of games where both Goons were dead after N1.

Huh, guess it's not as devastating as we thought.
 

Sorian

Banned
Wonder how the last minute swerve will go. I could put FEP on top but I'll go with my gut and assume that's a bum lynch.

VOTE: Burbeting

That's 2-2-2 I believe
 

Sorian

Banned
Oh, well if nin gets to be on the table, I prefer that, same odds of being scum as Burb but with less punishment for being wrong.

VOTE: nin1000
 

cabot

Member
Keep in mind its a random lynch between the tied if that happens, not a no lynch.

I was so ready to throw the death dice.

oh loverboy.

2-2-2 fep, hobo and nin.

ty4on (0)
sorian 54 (151)

sorian (1)
squidyj 83
*splinter 104 (188)
*splinter 222 (245)

crimsonfist (0)
sorian 151 (241)

flatearthpandas (2)
burbeting 168
*splinter 188 (222)
hobohodo 216

hobohodo (2)
nin1000 172
*splinter 248

burbeting (1)
flatearthpandas 185
sorian 241 (243)

nin1000 (2)
ty4on 240
sorian 243
*splinter 245 (248)
 
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