davidjaffe said:
I would be fine with game rentals if there were a waiting period of 1-3 months from when game hits retail to when it can be rented. As is, I can't stand them. But would be fine with them if we had the waiting period, like movies do.
The only way that would work is if the physical discs were held back for three months. The fair use doctrine says that once a physical product is sold at retail, anyone can buy it and rent it out for a profit. So when the game is released as a packaged product, it can (and will) be rented right away. The solution, I suppose, is to offer digital downloads first, then offer physical media after a waiting period, and the pre-release of DD might allow the price to hold up, but that practice would upset retailers, as it would accelerate the move by consumers to digital.
The analogy to car sales is not quite fair, since cars are sold to be consumed over a multi-year period, and the car maker is indifferent if the original purchaser drives it for ten years, or if he resells it after two. Games are more like other intellectual property, intended to be consumed only once (at least, that's the idea behind books and movies--music is different). In other settings, there is not much of a resale market, likely because the initial price is relatively low (movies and books are typically priced at $20 or less, and are widely available under $10 after a few years), and the products have a very long life. A book isn't "stale" when the sequel comes out, and a movie doesn't become irrelevant because a new hardware format launches.
Games are intended for single use, and are priced very high. Because of that, there is a great deal of demand for the game at lower price points. The used market is bigger as a percentage of overall demand than for any other intellectual property, with GameStop selling approximately 1.5 - 2x as many used games as it sells new. Since GameStop has 25% of the new game market, this means that used games represent around 1/3 of all games sold. That's a crazy big number, and it's part of what drives Jaffe crazy.
I don't think that Jaffe or the publishers would be upset if used game prices were limited to 50% of the price of a new game. In that case, GameStop could only make its 50% profit if it paid $15 for a trade-in and charged $30 for a game that was originally sold for $60. If GameStop only paid $15, most gamers would hold off trading games in for several months, and 75 - 90% of lifetime game sales for the new game would be in the books by the time the used game was offered for sale. As it stands now, GameStop offers huge trade in credits beginning just a few weeks after a game is released, and typically sells these games for a $5 or $10 discount to the new price. They compound matters by recommending the used game to people who approach the counter with a new game.
Interestingly, GameStop apparently ended the practice of recommending a used game for the first 60 days after launch. The new policy took effect around the same time that Activision announced that CODMW2 would be the biggest game launch in history. I have no information about whether this is a coincidence, but it's possible that Activision used its power over allocation of new games to coerce some modification to the GameStop policy.
Digital distribution is a foregone conclusion once hard drives are big enough to accommodate a lot of content and once high speed Internet is ubiquitous. The publishers make more money on a download (70% of retail vs. 60%), and pricing will likely be the same. People who prefer a physical disc will still be offered one, but some of the lazy folks will take the convenience route and download. Over time, digital content will grow to over 50% of the market, and demand for used games will outgrow supply. My guess is that GameStop will try to raise used game prices to take advantage, which will attract increased competition from Amazon and Best Buy. Competition should serve to drive used game prices back down.
This isn't happening overnight. Console HDDs are barely 120Gb, and then, only 10% or so of the installed base will have them by year end. Next year, we'll probably see a 500Gb Xbox 360 plus, and I'd bet that all games are offered digitally day and date with the packaged product release. Sony will follow suit (no clue when Nintendo will figure this out), and ultimately, a lot of gamers will have big hard drives and high speed Internet.
Just in time for Twisted Metal Black II.