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Election 2016 [Mafia] | Everlasting GOPstoppers

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Fireblend

Banned
Quoting for new page. I want everyone's thoughts on this.

Alright then, let's get down to business.

=====This is a pretyped post. It contains no comments about whatever happened at night.=====

So, uh good job on yesterday. The playing field has been leveled and I think it's now even in our favor.

So, I'm sure most of you have already thought of this, but I'm gonna go for it right away. I'm absolutely 100% sure there's scum in this list, from likeliest to unlikeliest:

Palmer_v1
CornBurrito
El Topo
*Splinter
Never Forever->Blarg

In fact, I wouldn't be very surprised if the entire scum team was in that list. Here goes my reasoning:

The list above contains everyone who didn't vote for Hyperactivity, or who did but only after Kalor broke the tie (El Topo). Normally, a list such as this one would be useful by itself, but due to the nature of yesterday's lynch I think this one is even more useful and accurate. Basically, I really doubt any mafia voted for Hyper before Kalor broke the tie; they must have been hoping that not enough people would switch their vote to Hyper so that bsp would be lynched instead, it would have made no sense for mafia to bring the vote closer to a tie.

Now, I said this list is ordered from who I think is likeliest to flip mafia to the unlikeliest. I'll provide my reasons below:

Palmer_v1: This should be obvious. I had my suspicions before, but saying that shouldn't even be necessary now. He tried to build a case against SalvaPot, who we can now confirm as town, right after Salva started the bandwagon against Hyper, who we know is electorate. Either this is a closed case, or he was ridiculously unlucky and framed himself in the most magnificent way possible.
About my first day reads, he said:

He should be everyone's strongest lynch candidate for today, IMO.

CornBurrito: The case against him isn't as solid as Palmer_v1 (how could it possibly be?) but still, it's sort of similar. I think either he or El Topo are electorate. He joined Kalor's first doublevote against El Topo right after he did and never moved his vote. He can say now that he was just following Kalor and was pretty fucking confused about what was going on, but the fact that he hesitated to join the Hyperactivity train and put the vote in risk of getting tied again even after it was obvious Kalor had no chance of being lynched makes him pretty damn suspicious. He was present for the whole thing too.

El Topo: As I said, I think either him and CornBurrito are (very unlucky) town, or one of them is scum but the other isn't. If they were both scum I doubt Corn would have joined Kalor so quickly when he double-voted for El Topo. Anyway, El Topo joined the vote against Hyper but only after the tie had been broken. Maybe as electorate he realized there was no way to stop Hyper from getting lynched without provoking a tie (which would have exposed him) and how obvious it'd be if all of the electorate ended up on the other side of Hyper's vote. He's no newbie. So he voted Hyper to avoid that scenario.

*Splinter: Starting with *Splinter, I think ideally we should get more evidence before lynching this part of the list, but they're still somewhat safe bets, IMO. *Splinter didn't vote for Hyper but before the hyper vote even started he'd already posted something about having to leave the thread, and indeed he didn't post after that. 50-50 chance really; I wouldn't bet on it.

Never Forever: Same as above, super flimsy case. I only mention him because he had an active vote by the time the day ended that wasn't Hyper. But he'd already said he was going to get a replacement. However as I said, he had a vote on bsp and I guess that makes him a little suspicious. He's now Blarg though, and it's going to be difficult to build a case based on NF's case, so uh, maybe just keep an eye on him.

IMO there's simply no reason to even consider voting for anyone not on this list for now, or at least not until someone from the list flips scum.

GOP players: If you agree with me that there has to be mafia hiding there, or maybe even the entire team, then you'll agree that even if someone from the list flips GOP we'll be significantly closer to catching scum on our next attempt considering it's a very short list. I dunno if this is going to be a popular opinion, but either way obviously don't rush the vote, but unless a huge revelation occurs I doubt I'm going to stop pushing this strategy.

Also, a side note. I believe if we want to consider someone outside the list, we should reevaluate BSP's claim. Her role's name is too similar to Hyper's for my comfort. But still, I wouldn't consider that until after the first three players on the list have flipped.

VOTE: Palmer_v1

What do you guys think?

#AliveOnDay3 #LovinIt
 

cabot

Member
Hello my friends.

God it feels good to be able to speak.

I don't believe Palmer is scum.

I looked at who was present during the Hyper flip and didn't vote on him.

CornBurrito, you're up.

VOTE: CornBurrito

Here's what he said going on during the Hyper last second flip:

So the El_Topo vote is simply to show off your power?

Should I be not voting?

Question: is double vote pretty much always a town power? I can't imagine it not being one. Just want to make sure.

For fucking real?

.....

At the very least this power could easily be proven bullshit if he's lying. fuck idk who to even believe.

How much fucking time is left?

Bit of a mess, but not willing to vote on him, even after Hyper revealed his power was sending messages.

I read this as scum really just not having a clue what was going on.

It was pure luck we hit scum yesterday, but it works to our advantage. The fact it was so last minute means that there's a decent chance a scum was caught out of a bussing to save face. Splinter was my other pick, but with Palmer saying he's cleared essentially, I'll need to go back and check that.

Other question: Why exactly did Salva stick his neck out for BSP?

What's so useful about a currently neutral and voteless role?

It was a solid lynch choice. I'd like her to place a vote on someone and immediately take a vote count to confirm what the situation is with her role today.

Have at ye.
 
CornBurrito: The case against him isn't as solid as Palmer_v1 (how could it possibly be?) but still, it's sort of similar. I think either he or El Topo are electorate. He joined Kalor's first doublevote against El Topo right after he did and never moved his vote. He can say now that he was just following Kalor and was pretty fucking confused about what was going on, but the fact that he hesitated to join the Hyperactivity train and put the vote in risk of getting tied again even after it was obvious Kalor had no chance of being lynched makes him pretty damn suspicious. He was present for the whole thing too.

I'm well aware how bad I look. I really don't have much a defense because I was legitimately overwhelmed. Once Hyper false claimed, I started trying to dig through his Day 1 shit to see if his actions were consistent (about trusting kingkitty). I also spent time trying to find Splinter's first post because Hyper claimed there'd be some message in it.

I was also worried about looking like I was joining another bandwagon in the event Hyper was town, because my votes were all over the place yesterday due to the constant role claims.
 

cabot

Member
OK I see BSP is confirmed as useless still.

I still think she's hiding something. I don't know what, I just think there has to be something more than being voteless until a certain chance factor triggers.
 

Fireblend

Banned
I don't believe Palmer is scum.
It's good to have you back :)

Why?

I'm well aware how bad I look. I really don't have much a defense because I was legitimately overwhelmed. Once Hyper false claimed, I started trying to dig through his Day 1 shit to see if his actions were consistent (about trusting kingkitty). I also spent time trying to find Splinter's first post because Hyper claimed there'd be some message in it.

I was also worried about looking like I was joining another bandwagon in the event Hyper was town, because my votes were all over the place yesterday due to the constant role claims.

What do you think of the rest of my reasoning?
 

*Splinter

Member
Sorry for missing end of yesterday (also fuck you Salva, no need for that to happen so late)

I see my name came up, I can confirm I received a message from "God", as follows:

*Splinter, my child! You have been chosen to speak my word! So rise *Splinter, rise and take this task upon you.

Know and lead your brethren. Speak to them my words: "I know myself" at the earliest opportunity.

And know that this world is filled with those that will mock, fear, and attack my word.

I wasn't sure who sent it but figured I might as well play along for now. You can see my first post of yesterday (the one you quoted, Palmer) had the phrase "I know myself" shoehorned in there. I didn't spot any further clues from Hyper or anyone else throughout the day.


Now if you'll excuse me, I've had some NASTY cheap pizza and now I just want to vom or something.


Down with Palmer (scummy)
Down with CornBurrito (seems to be playing a caricature of himself, will elaborate later)
 
Bit of a mess, but not willing to vote on him, even after Hyper revealed his power was sending messages..

This isn't really fair to be honest. You make it sound like I should have just obviously known Hyper was scum after he revealed what his power was. But that's not the case. Hyper claimed that his was 100% and that's why he sort of believed kitty, and that he sent a message to Splinter. It was a believable claim, especially since all of that would be extremely difficult to fake.
 
What do you think of the rest of my reasoning?

I think you and I agree on El Topo. He placed his vote seconds before the vote ended, and when it wasn't needed. That to me seems like a distancing move.

Palmer has been interesting. Had El Topo not placed that vote, I think Palmer would have been my target today. But apparently I missed some post by Palmer that "100%" proves he is town. So I'm waiting to see what he argues.

I actually think I agree with all your reasoning. Save for that I think I had a stronger case against El Topo than against Palmer.
 

cabot

Member
It's good to have you back :)

Why?



What do you think of the rest of my reasoning?

I still think the PM thing with Sorian was a slip that showed him as town. I also agreed with a lot of what he said yesterday and I don't think he really got credit for the ideas he put forward.

His Salva vote made sense in that he was clearly annoyed at the role claiming madness.

Obviously, nothing is certain but I currently trust him well enough, much like I do you.
 

Kalor

Member
Well, I guess L_P was the most dangerous target for Electorate since they could roleblock so it makes sense they are dead.

Fireblend, I generally agree with your list of who you find suspicious. The part where I don't agree with you is on Never Forever/Blargonaut although you say they are on the list purely for their BSP vote so...
 
I still think the PM thing with Sorian was a slip that showed him as town. I also agreed with a lot of what he said yesterday and I don't think he really got credit for the ideas he put forward.

His Salva vote made sense in that he was clearly annoyed at the role claiming madness.

Obviously, nothing is certain but I currently trust him well enough, much like I do you.

Except Salva's role claim was actually a really good town play. We'd have wasted so much time looking for an SK. We'd have even wasted a role block on her. I really only wish it had been sooner. Things might have played out differently and then L_P might never have needed to role claim.
 

cabot

Member
This isn't really fair to be honest. You make it sound like I should have just obviously known Hyper was scum after he revealed what his power was. But that's not the case. Hyper claimed that his was 100% and that's why he sort of believed kitty, and that he sent a message to Splinter. It was a believable claim, especially since all of that would be extremely difficult to fake.

Perhaps, but two town roles that could send messages? seems a little over the top. His role was easily the weakest of the ones announced though, and you just seemed a little caught with your pants down.

Sure it's harsh, but going after the people that weren't voted by Hyper is my strongest hunch currently.
 

Fireblend

Banned
I still think the PM thing with Sorian was a slip that showed him as town. I also agreed with a lot of what he said yesterday and I don't think he really got credit for the ideas he put forward.

His Salva vote made sense in that he was clearly annoyed at the role claiming madness.

Obviously, nothing is certain but I currently trust him well enough, much like I do you.

Do you agree with the rest of the reasoning? IMO, if we lynch him and he flips town, we'll at least be narrowing down a list I feel pretty confident contains scum, but I'm confident already he's scum.

I placed him first on my list because really, is there anything more incriminating that voting for a townie when a scum is being voted out, even after it was obvious Salva wouldn't get lynched and we were worrying about a potential tie? He would have known.
 

cabot

Member
Except Salva's role claim was actually a really good town play. We'd have wasted so much time looking for an SK. We'd have even wasted a role block on her. I really only wish it had been sooner. Things might have played out differently and then L_P might never have needed to role claim.

It made sense yesterday though, when we didn't know this to be true yet, that's my point.
 

Fireblend

Banned
Well, I guess L_P was the most dangerous target for Electorate since they could roleblock so it makes sense they are dead.

Fireblend, I generally agree with your list of who you find suspicious. The part where I don't agree with you is on Never Forever/Blargonaut although you say they are on the list purely for their BSP vote so...

Yeah, I listed them mostly to keep the record of them not having voted for hyper, but I agree they're flimsy candidates. I'm mostly concerned about everyone's opinions on the first 3.
 
Down with CornBurrito (seems to be playing a caricature of himself, will elaborate later)

Could you elaborate sooner rather than later? I don't think I've been playing any different than I did in DR. Or if anything, I've been less aggressive. But there's a clear reason for that. Before the whole fight club nonsense became apparent, I was so sure our town leader in that game was Despair and everyone was buying into his nonsense. I felt I HAD to be the one to take charge. In contrast, this game started with practically two confirmed town.
 

Palmer_v1

Member
Can't you recognize my points make sense? You proposing something when the day started isn't as solid as what you did when it was ending. Anything can happen during the day.

Still, feel free to discuss my ideas, we've got 48 hours or so. Do you agree with the rest of my thoughts?

Your entire basis on voting me is that I didn't vote for Hyper? Did you not see the shitshow that Salva posted? How in the fuck can you call him confirmed town? Did I miss something? Also, if I was trying to keep Hyper alive, wouldn't I have voted for whoever had the second most votes? Most importantly, WHY WOULD I HAVE SERVED HIM UP AT THE START OF THE DAY?

I don't disagree that last second votes like El Topo should be considered, as well anyone that wasn't in the vote, but you (and maybe some of the others as well) are on some trippy confirmation bias when it comes to me. Every action I have taken has been explained and your reposted "gut feeling" excuse has never been justified(by any of you).

Thanks for putting me on tilt immediately with this bullshit. I was trying to get Splinter confirmed as town, and work out if anything changed with BSP. Now I have to go on the defense against your witch hunt with the limited amount of time I have.

My current reads

Town:
Cabot - Town for the obvious reasons
Nin - Town cause Cabot cleared him
Splinter - Town because I think Hyper cleared him unintentinally.
Kalor - Probably town because he had opportunity to bus BSP instead of Hyper.

Scummy:
BSP - Still scummy to me. The night has made no changes in my opinions.
Salva - I just don't understand the logic behind any part of your actions. If this was really your ability, you should have role claimed D1. You've been a liability at best, and flat out scum at worst. I don't know if I want to kill you to verify BSP, or vice versa.

Idiots:
You know who you are

Blarg:
Blargonaut

Cabot, are you silenced again? I need some fucking logic posted in this thread soon.
 

El Topo

Member
I honestly don't get how Burrito could believe I am scum. He even ("jokingly") asked me if I wanted to reveal my role yesterday, after Kalor and then him voted for me, even though at the very least my name should be evident. He also never changed his vote from me, although admittedly the last minutes were insane.
 

Fireblend

Banned
Scummy:
BSP - Still scummy to me. The night has made no changes in my opinions.
Salva - I just don't understand the logic behind any part of your actions. If this was really your ability, you should have role claimed D1. You've been a liability at best, and flat out scum at worst. I don't know if I want to kill you to verify BSP, or vice versa.

If Salva was scum, why would he have started the bandwagon against Hyper?

Also, any reason neither Corn or Topo are in this list?
 
Perhaps, but two town roles that could send messages? seems a little over the top. His role was easily the weakest of the ones announced though, and you just seemed a little caught with your pants down.

Sure it's harsh, but going after the people that weren't voted by Hyper is my strongest hunch currently.

I didn't think it would be over the top. I posted this yesterday, but I explained what I thought KK's role was meant to do.

50% chance to send message. Send message telling someone to post something.
50% chance to role cop.

The chance of BOTH abilities failing is low. The idea seems to be to see if someone got your god message. If they did, your role cop results aren't trustworthy. If they didn't, the odds of your role cop reads being right are higher. Its still a gamble, granted.

A 100% message was different enough in function from what I envisioned KK's role as, that I didn't immediately dismiss Hyper's claim. Especially since claiming "100% message from God" was in my mind a dumb thing for scum to attempt to claim given how easy it would have been to disprove. All he would have needed to do was send a message to you, or nin. Or have Splinter confirm that he got the message.

And well, I actually wasn't wrong entirely. Reading his role PM, he seemingly CAN send messages with 100% accuracy. I just didn't envision that it would be a scum role.
 

nin1000

Banned
Your entire basis on voting me is that I didn't vote for Hyper? Did you not see the shitshow that Salva posted? How in the fuck can you call him confirmed town? Did I miss something? Also, if I was trying to keep Hyper alive, wouldn't I have voted for whoever had the second most votes? Most importantly, WHY WOULD I HAVE SERVED HIM UP AT THE START OF THE DAY?

I don't disagree that last second votes like El Topo should be considered, as well anyone that wasn't in the vote, but you (and maybe some of the others as well) are on some trippy confirmation bias when it comes to me. Every action I have taken has been explained and your reposted "gut feeling" excuse has never been justified(by any of you).

Thanks for putting me on tilt immediately with this bullshit. I was trying to get Splinter confirmed as town, and work out if anything changed with BSP. Now I have to go on the defense against your witch hunt with the limited amount of time I have.

My current reads

Town:
Cabot - Town for the obvious reasons
Nin - Town cause Cabot cleared him
Splinter - Town because I think Hyper cleared him unintentinally.
Kalor - Probably town because he had opportunity to bus BSP instead of Hyper.

Scummy:
BSP - Still scummy to me. The night has made no changes in my opinions.
Salva - I just don't understand the logic behind any part of your actions. If this was really your ability, you should have role claimed D1. You've been a liability at best, and flat out scum at worst. I don't know if I want to kill you to verify BSP, or vice versa.

Idiots:
You know who you are

Blarg:
Blargonaut

Cabot, are you silenced again? I need some fucking logic posted in this thread soon.

LOL that made me laugh pretty hard :D I dont see you that scummy for the Moment, i only said that i had a bad Feeling about you palmer, nothing wrong with it since you dont seem to be that scummy even though you did not vote for hyper. For me it is firebend trying to push kalor and everyone else to push their votes for BSP and not hyper even though he started the bandwagon.
 

cabot

Member
Do you agree with the rest of the reasoning? IMO, if we lynch him and he flips town, we'll at least be narrowing down a list I feel pretty confident contains scum, but I'm confident already he's scum.

I placed him first on my list because really, is there anything more incriminating that voting for a townie when a scum is being voted out, even after it was obvious Salva wouldn't get lynched and we were worrying about a potential tie? He would have known.

The difference between him and CB was I saw a clear motive for his Salva vote. I saw CB just dilly dallying around not really sure what to do. It happened very fast and could legitimately have caught him off guard.

I also don't take too much stock on that because again, I think Hyper was more luck than anything. As far as I remember Hyper was piled on because we didn't want to hit the three other roles.

I still think BSP was a good choice, I'm curious as to why she was so protected. Salva stopped the SK hunt sure, but why exactly did he claim so late in the day after all the SK talk? It's something I'm trying to understand.

Naturally I wanted to get started on CB to see how he responded. I'll leave my vote there for tonight. I'll go to bed and try to have a fresh think of the situation now I knew for sure I was able to type.
 

cabot

Member
And well, I actually wasn't wrong entirely. Reading his role PM, he seemingly CAN send messages with 100% accuracy. I just didn't envision that it would be a scum role.

Makai's role in SW had message sending I believe and was also scum, it's why I wasn't too surprised.
 

Fireblend

Banned
Ok, can someone tell me how Salva starting the bandwagon against who we now know to be scum and ultimately causing him to be lynched isn't confirmed town now?

There was literally no worse outcome for the electorate. Salva started it.
 

Palmer_v1

Member
Oh, I see Cabot posted something about Splinter while I was typing.

I would like everyone to evaluate what I mean by him being cleared. I can't seem to post a decent explanation of it.

Basically, Hyper is scum.
He can send a message each night.
N1, he claims to have sent one to splinter and that splinter was supposed to do something in his first post.(need to go look at this again)

Assuming Hyper sent one, there's no reason to send it to a fellow scum, right? He didn't have any appreciable heat on him when D1 ended.
So presumably, we know whoever received his message is not scum, right?

We have no way to confirm if Splinter did receive it, but as long as nobody else claims to have received it, it means he's PROBABLY not scum. There's a vague chance he's neutral, or that something else weird like a role block or switch happened, but chances are he's good.

If someone else DOES claim to have received it, we have issues. It could be a scum CC, it could have been a switcher, or it could be the real target(but why wouldn't Hyper just name them instead?)
 

Fireblend

Banned
For me it is firebend trying to push kalor and everyone else to push their votes for BSP and not hyper even though he started the bandwagon.

I already beat my consecutive-days alive record, so I'm going all in today :p if it makes you feel safer about my reads or how I'm being truthful with my plan, then you guys can go ahead and lynch me. Just promise you'll come back and read my posts and realize I was at the very least not being malicious.
 

nin1000

Banned
I already beat my consecutive-days alive record, so I'm going all in today :p if it makes you feel safer about my reads or how I'm being truthful with my plan, then you guys can go ahead and lynch me. Just promise you'll come back and read my posts and realize I was at the very least not being malicious.

Nothing in mafia is Fire, dont worry :*
 

cabot

Member
I decided to keep quiet since I wanted to see how would people would rationalize the two deaths, and I am surprised how everyone jumped on the neutral wagon. Either way, I don´t want either bsp or l_p to die right now, I don´t feel either of them is a good choice for lynching.

Why is this surprising?

There was 1 extra unexplained NK that was GOP, it was either a poor vigilante or a SK. SKs are neutral that's why their SKs.

Again, why is BSP a bad choice for lynching?

She's neutral so she doesn't affect the mafia win condition, and she's voteless?

how is that a bad lynch choice?
 
Makai's role in SW had message sending I believe and was also scum, it's why I wasn't too surprised.

I have basically no knowledge of any GAFia game besides DR and this one. It is why I've been asking questions constantly about roles and potential alignments. Like when I asked if Override (if it exists) is always a scum role. Or if double vote it always a town role.
 

nin1000

Banned
Why is this surprising?

There was 1 extra unexplained NK that was GOP, it was either a poor vigilante or a SK. SKs are neutral that's why their SKs.

Again, why is BSP a bad choice for lynching?

She's neutral so she doesn't affect the mafia win condition, and she's voteless?

how is that a bad lynch choice?

The hope remains that she will become one of us, i know it is a small hope but still.
 

cabot

Member
There's just as much a chance that she's hiding something because hey, she's neutral.

That's my point, she could be a danger just as much as a benefit
 

nin1000

Banned
I have basically no knowledge of any GAFia game besides DR and this one. It is why I've been asking questions constantly about roles and potential alignments. Like when I asked if Override (if it exists) is always a scum role. Or if double vote it always a town role.

We can assume that the double vote is the power of a town Player since the vote is the only power we have and if the scum could have such powers it would be pretty OP.
But well this is a strange game so everything is possible.
 
Wait... BSP claimed that if we lynched scum she'd get her visa and gain a vote and town alignment. One of her claims is easy enough to prove now. She should have actual voting power.
 

Palmer_v1

Member
I already beat my consecutive-days alive record, so I'm going all in today :p if it makes you feel safer about my reads or how I'm being truthful with my plan, then you guys can go ahead and lynch me. Just promise you'll come back and read my posts and realize I was at the very least not being malicious.

Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think you're scum, I'm just utterly confused on how I'm coming across scummy this game. I'm frustrated by who is actually ending up cleared, basically.
 

nin1000

Banned
There's just as much a chance that she's hiding something because hey, she's neutral.

That's my point, she could be a danger just as much as a benefit

indeed but i see her not as much of a "thread" as of what happened in the last couple of ours. I like your idea of going after those taht whithhold their vote against hyper ( not you for the Moment palmer )
 

Fireblend

Banned
Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think you're scum, I'm just utterly confused on how I'm coming across scummy this game. I'm frustrated by who is actually ending up cleared, basically.

You haven't answered why I should consider Salva town when he started the bandwagon against Hyper. Can you please, please clear that up for me?
 

El Topo

Member
I have to agree with fireblend.

Palmer ultimately cast useless votes on both days. On the first day he voted for Sorian, on the second day he voted for Salva. He has held back when it came to accusations, or rather I don't think he ever followed them up much, it's almost as if he's flying under the radar even though he posted quite a lot, as evidenced by the fact that (if I didn't misread things) he only received a single vote in this entire game. That vote was cast by Sorian, who ended up dead. I'd also add that he didn't put me under confirmed town, even though I've already given away my name.

He also goes around and states the obvious, as well as calls people idiots. I honestly don't feel like getting called names and I don't feel like keeping him in the game.

VOTE: Palmer_v1
 
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