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[Moriarty1889]

Simply incredible how the PS5 is selling. Utter domination. Xbox is embarrassing at this point. Where are all the people bragging about Xbox engagement numbers? Console sales matter if you want to build a dedicated console base. That is and has always been a fact. If Xbox continues to do this poorly then maybe it isnt out of the question they hold true to their statement of abandoning gaming in 2027. We shall see I guess won’t we?

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Didn't PlayStation need to sell 10 million units in this last calendar year quarter to stay on Pace for their 25 million units in a fiscal year?

Sales of 16.8 million is required for the next 2 quarters combined. To stay on course for 25 million then 11.5 million would be needed for Q3 in my opinion, this is of course an insanely high target.

 

[SneakersSO]

I can understand for the PS5. But the Switch 2? This would be even more desperate than I think they need to be. Why loose ressources for a console months away, and not really up to the task compared to this gen, when most engines struggle to give us clean 4K? And with most of those studios under Microsoft not really friends with Nintendo, will they even have dev kits now, or are they just looking at how feasible it is? Not that I don't believe you. But it would be so damning for Xbox to do so. We do have Nadella comments that for him there is no need for exclusivity. Time will tell, I suppose.

I really don't see how releasing on the Switch 2 would be seen as desperate. Ninteno has a massive userbase and GAAS titles have done well in that eco. MS has loads of GAAS games that would compliment Switch users.

You have to also consider - they aren't gonna drop support for their current consoles, or even stop their plans for their upcoming hardware. They are just gonna widen their publishing targets. This means, they are still going to be supporting the XSS for quite awhile, on top of already looking towards supporting the Switch 2 with some of their titles, such as Minecraft and CoD, the latter of which they are contractually obligated to support, and that is MS biggest revenue earner as of right now.

How far do you expect Microsoft to commit to that type of revamped business model though? IMO, it would basically have to involve completing ending console exclusivity altogether, not just for ABK games but also Zenimax and XGS. That's likely one way they make a better case to get Game Pass on Sony & Nintendo platforms, for example.

The next step would be just fully going into that model with the next generation of hardware, but maybe conditioning X & S owners at current for what's to come, such as an expanded Dev Mode feature that opens up even more general-purpose Windows functionality on those platforms. If possible they can then I guess offer a full Windows 12 Home Edition-like upgrade to Series S & X users for a one-time payment fee and/or subscription (there's already rumors the next Windows might be subscription-based at least as an option), ahead of launching new hardware where this stuff is more or less the default (but that hardware being explicitly designed to leverage it in a more wholistic matter than the Series S & X ever could).

Ending console exclusivity is the road this is ultimately ending up at for them. Internally, Nadella and other execs have been questioning why they haven't gone this route a long time ago, and this is before the absolute collapse of their HW sales this year.

Ending exclusivity yields them a host of benefits, not the least of which is getting regulators off their backs for future acquisitions. You just have to measure the loss of revenue you'd get from users abandoning the HW platform, to the potential revenue you can make by selling on all platforms, not to mention even your lost users are just as lucky to keep using your software anywhere else.

Does your uncle work for Bethesda?

Serious answer: I'll believe it when I see it.

No, but I have done work as a contractor for many pubs, Zenimax included, even after their acquisition.

 

[SneakersSO]

That's interesting. But, does that mean they pivot Xbox to that type of Surface angle just in terms of messaging & marketing, or do they fully commit and shift the whole business model more along those lines? Because IMO those are two different things.

For example, if it's the former, they still more or less keep Xbox the way it currently is: hardware subsidized in upfront MSRP to make up through 3P cuts, subs, peripherals etc. Very closed ecosystem-wise (no alternative gaming storefronts for example), no real purpose for aspects of productivity (which shifting OS to a more general-purpose Windows would allow), etc. So while they in a sense could make more money by otherwise publishing all their content everywhere, they still eat into their profit margins because Xbox itself otherwise just functions the way as current, which is eating at operating expenses for very little gains.

It still means they're producing systems at high-million volumes annually, still handling marketing in the space of a traditional console, still bleeding users to competing platforms, still bleeding money in subsidization of hardware MSRP just to keep user bleed from getting worst, etc. IMO if MS are looking to grow their profit margins, they'd have to retool the entire business model for Xbox from the root and up. Just treating it more like a Surface-type endeavor for optics & messaging won't accomplish that, not by a long shot.

I mean, they now know without a doubt that playing the traditional console business model tactics isn't going to work, so producing a unit that needs mass market adoption doesn't need to happen if your SW can still make money on other platforms, so my prediction is that the next Xbox HW release will likely be very high end on the price tag, with very limited production. I also don't think they are going to enter an annual or semi-annual production model for their units. I expect HW demand will slide even further once titles are routinely releasing elsewhere, but like I said, it'll be greatly offset by the revenue from other platforms

Xbox has never really been concerned with 'growing their profit margins' - they regularly and famously don't make profit and have lost money on this outing for a very long time. Releasing software on other platforms isn't necessarily a high-margin endeavor, but the revenue it does generate does make it make sense. We're talking about a HW generation (XSS/X) where they were still selling units at a loss at full MSRP in year 3 - Sony was selling PS5s at a profit starting in year 2.

I don't imagine a situation where they maintain the current Xbox business model as is. The console isn't selling. Retailers are doing everything in their power in MS' strongest market to absolutely clear out stock or MS risks having to honor stock buybacks. They don't even have any big titles in the pipe on the scale of Starfield to even hope for a console sales rebound.

 

[DForce]

Why are so many people happy with the Xbox selling poorly? Serious question.

Many people predicted Sony's downfall this generation at the hands of Microsoft.

It started with Sony not being able to compete with Microsoft with Game Pass and XCloud. There were many doom and gloom posts after Microsoft acquired Zenimax and ABK.

This has been going on for almost 4 years now, so all you can do is look back and laugh. Game Subscription services (day one releases) are not the future, Cloud gaming is very stagnant, and console sales are on pace to sell worse than the Xbox One.

 

[woahwoahwoah]

This has to be the worst leadership team in gaming

 

[yurinka]

That doesn't completely get rid of the threat Microsoft poses to Sony in terms of foreclosure strategies though, unless Microsoft either get rid of the Xbox hardware or significantly revamp the hardware side into a PC-centric business model and product type.

Unless that happens, even if they expand their publishing output on other platforms, it can be a problem for competitors if the gains in revenue with such a strategy basically let Microsoft ride out with Xbox hardware as a traditional console business model-wise. It'd just let them build up a cash flow that could keep Xbox as a console on life support for any number of years and consolidate control of the 3P market under their ownership.

Then pressure companies like Sony or Nintendo into catalog-type deals, threaten foreclosure of certain titles etc. and give Xbox a massive push again. That's a long-term play any company smaller than Microsoft would not be able or want to sustain because of all the operating expenses incurred in the meantime, but that just shows the danger of a company as big as Microsoft potentially trying to play both hands, since gaming revenue still means little to nothing in their bottom line cash flow within the entire company itself.

So chances are, something would still have to give, especially if MS want Game Pass on competitor platforms. It'll likely be time for them to make a big choice sooner rather than later.

For MS, the cost of mantaining all these huge amounts of AAA studios is too high to lock them in a single platform as would be PC, even more if the owner of the store with most of the market share is someone else. And would make even sense to lock them in a way smaller platform as is Xbox.

The bigger their costs are, the more revenue they need to have a healthy business. The installbase of their console has pretty low growth potential, so their only options are to raise prices, to bet more on GaaS and to expand to more platforms, mainly mobile and PC but also indirectly (via acquired 3P companies) rival consoles.

The case of Sony is pretty different: their own console is more important for them because it's their main product and the market leader. For MS, their main platform is PC because of their involvement on Windows, Office etc. And now anything related to servers because Azure is very important to MS too. In the near future, IA too.

So Sony can still rely on their own console because it's insanely popular, but still need to continue growing outside their console, mostly on PC and specially mobile, but indirectly also from rival consoles. They are insanely successful with their 1st party games, specially non-GaaS, so they don't need to focus on GaaS that much.

Unlike MS, Sony can grow in GaaS while also growing in non-GaaS 1st party games.

Regarding game subs, MS is eating shit: after spending dozens of billions to get content (1st or 3rd party) for it, not only via acquisitions, they got stuck at 25M for a while. Meanwhile, spending a shit ton less Sony has twice the subs and skyrocketed their game subs revenue. Unlike MS they have a thriving, successful, growing and healthy business with their game sub.

Sony is destroying Microsoft, not the opposite. PS is dominating Xbox, not the opposite. PS Plus is crushing GP, not the opposite. MS is the one who has the pressure to improve and fight a bigger rival they can't beat even if spending many dozens of billions. Sooner or later, MS will surrender and will leave Xbox to become full 3rd party.

And Sony will have the MS, Bethesda or ABK games on PlayStation making money for them. And won't care if they are 1 or 3 companies.

 

[DJ12]

All of them. I know of several high-profile Bethesda titles whose port work started up a few months ago. I also have some knowledge on ABK in general, and not a single project that was in dev, or that has gotten an initial approval to have an exploratory milestone achieved, has had a single discussion on exclusivity. I also now know of several titles that fall squarely under XGS, titles that have yet to be announced, that now are doing PS/Xbox/Switch 2 development.

The console wars are basically over. The public just doesn't know it yet.

Name 1 just 1 and please don't ruin my day and say starfield.

Let's see if you have any confidence or if you are just full of it.

Everyone's got an uncle somewhere right...

 

[Astray]

Name 1 just 1 and please don't ruin my day and say starfield.

Let's see if you have any confidence or if you are just full of it.

Everyone's got an uncle somewhere right...

I will name one without having any inside info: Blade.

 

[SneakersSO]

Name 1 just 1 and please don't ruin my day and say starfield.

Let's see if you have any confidence or if you are just full of it.

Everyone's got an uncle somewhere right...

I really won't talk in depth on some of the other games coming cause announcing games for other teams is simply not my business.

But of course Starfield is gonna wind up elsewhere. I don't know why you'd even be surprised by that. Also - why would you even care? Why would this ruin your day?

Also, I don't have an uncle anywhere. I've worked at various pubs over my career, including Zenimax in recent times.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Ending console exclusivity is the road this is ultimately ending up at for them. Internally, Nadella and other execs have been questioning why they haven't gone this route a long time ago, and this is before the absolute collapse of their HW sales this year.

Ending exclusivity yields them a host of benefits, not the least of which is getting regulators off their backs for future acquisitions. You just have to measure the loss of revenue you'd get from users abandoning the HW platform, to the potential revenue you can make by selling on all platforms, not to mention even your lost users are just as lucky to keep using your software anywhere else.


No, but I have done work as a contractor for many pubs, Zenimax included, even after their acquisition.

I know the benefits for Microsoft in shifting to being a full 3P as it would, as you said, help get regulators off their back (at least in theory; I actually think it wouldn't help too much because there are other concern points for the market in terms of consolidation that will come into the picture). But I'm more interested in what Sony's benefits would be in that scenario.

Even if, for example, regulators by some chance ease up on Microsoft buying publishers if they went full 3P, would Sony (or Nintendo for that matter, or Apple and Google considering the likelihood MS will be able to establish a storefront on their mobile devices and bypass Apple & Google's own stores or giving them a 30% cut) feel comfortable with a singular entity consolidating so much of the 3P publisher market? I just don't think that concern, or the legit issues with that type of consolidation, suddenly disappear just because Microsoft step away from being a platform holder and focus more on being a full 3P publisher themselves.

I mean, they now know without a doubt that playing the traditional console business model tactics isn't going to work, so producing a unit that needs mass market adoption doesn't need to happen if your SW can still make money on other platforms, so my prediction is that the next Xbox HW release will likely be very high end on the price tag, with very limited production. I also don't think they are going to enter an annual or semi-annual production model for their units. I expect HW demand will slide even further once titles are routinely releasing elsewhere, but like I said, it'll be greatly offset by the revenue from other platforms

Xbox has never really been concerned with 'growing their profit margins' - they regularly and famously don't make profit and have lost money on this outing for a very long time. Releasing software on other platforms isn't necessarily a high-margin endeavor, but the revenue it does generate does make it make sense. We're talking about a HW generation (XSS/X) where they were still selling units at a loss at full MSRP in year 3 - Sony was selling PS5s at a profit starting in year 2.

I don't imagine a situation where they maintain the current Xbox business model as is. The console isn't selling. Retailers are doing everything in their power in MS' strongest market to absolutely clear out stock or MS risks having to honor stock buybacks. They don't even have any big titles in the pipe on the scale of Starfield to even hope for a console sales rebound.

Currently I'm picturing a hardware future for Xbox where they might try making it as much like a PC as possible but find some way to "gimp" Windows where it isn't as open to run alternative storefronts on it. Or, they do just let that happen (particularly since they themselves will be able to likely have storefronts on Apple & Google devices) and the cost of the gaming hardware goes up to reflect it. So say for example whatever specs a PS6 has, Microsoft refreshes their higher-end (mid-high end?) PC gaming device to roughly be on that level spec-wise, but it's going to run close to $900 or $1000. That's to make up for the fact it can basically run some edition of Windows, run alternative gaming storefronts upfront, run all the productivity software Windows PCs run, etc.

And you're still getting hardware that gaming-wise is at or above comparable NUCs/mini-PCs from other vendors, you're still getting something with a console-style form factor & footprint (but open to RAM expansions and maybe CPU upgrades & smaller form factor GPU expansions), controller, storage, a gaming UI by default basically an extension of what Xbox systems already do today, and so forth.

Putting all the fanboy stuff aside, genuinely I feel that's probably the best path for Xbox hardware going forward. To me it just makes too much sense. And maybe that is where Microsoft are going to take it but have to ease and ween their most diehard Xbox fanatics into that reality.

For MS, the cost of mantaining all these huge amounts of AAA studios is too high to lock them in a single platform as would be PC, even more if the owner of the store with most of the market share is someone else. And would make even sense to lock them in a way smaller platform as is Xbox.

The bigger their costs are, the more revenue they need to have a healthy business. The installbase of their console has pretty low growth potential, so their only options are to raise prices, to bet more on GaaS and to expand to more platforms, mainly mobile and PC but also indirectly (via acquired 3P companies) rival consoles.

The case of Sony is pretty different: their own console is more important for them because it's their main product and the market leader. For MS, their main platform is PC because of their involvement on Windows, Office etc. And now anything related to servers because Azure is very important to MS too. In the near future, IA too.

Well, basically accurate read, but I've seen others saying that going fully 3P would lead to a consolidation of the internal studios because with no platform of their own to stand upon, they face increased competition from 3P on other, healthier platforms. I feel that part is definitely true.

So in that being true, part of the costs issue gets naturally resolved because, naturally, MS have to cull the amount of content being produced since their operations are leaner. Like someone else said, for a game like Forza Motorsport without Xbox as a device whatsoever, it's either the quality has to get better or that branch of the IP gets pruned. With Xbox as gaming hardware but more as a PC than a console, there is probably more justification for Forza Motorsport to exist as long as competing sims like Gran Turismo continue to not prioritize PC (and at least with the traditional releases, they shouldn't, because the console market for PS should be more than enough and leaving it off PC reduces competitive advantages for PC over a PlayStation in terms of getting another PlayStation sold).

So Sony can still rely on their own console because it's insanely popular, but still need to continue growing outside their console, mostly on PC and specially mobile, but indirectly also from rival consoles. They are insanely successful with their 1st party games, specially non-GaaS, so they don't need to focus on GaaS that much.

Hmm...this is a very interesting change of tune for you

Unlike MS, Sony can grow in GaaS while also growing in non-GaaS 1st party games.

True, but it's been some tough growing pains and the means of that growth may not be so clear-cut. Take today's news with Naughty Dog as a good example.

Regarding game subs, MS is eating shit: after spending dozens of billions to get content (1st or 3rd party) for it, not only via acquisitions, they got stuck at 25M for a while. Meanwhile, spending a shit ton less Sony has twice the subs and skyrocketed their game subs revenue. Unlike MS they have a thriving, successful, growing and healthy business with their game sub.

Sony is destroying Microsoft, not the opposite. PS is dominating Xbox, not the opposite. PS Plus is crushing GP, not the opposite. MS is the one who has the pressure to improve and fight a bigger rival they can't beat even if spending many dozens of billions. Sooner or later, MS will surrender and will leave Xbox to become full 3rd party.

And Sony will have the MS, Bethesda or ABK games on PlayStation making money for them. And won't care if they are 1 or 3 companies.

Well that's the trajectory things seem to be heading in now that's for certain. Question is how long will it take to get there, and does MS becoming a "full 3P" still mean they keep Xbox hardware around as a console, keep it around as a gaming-centric PC line, or just phase out the hardware altogether but keep peripherals like controllers going?

I think that's the question no one has an answer to yet other than those in the deepest of the Xbox division and Microsoft itself.

 

[Moriarty1889]

Simply incredible how the PS5 is selling. Utter domination. Xbox is embarrassing at this point. Where are all the people bragging about Xbox engagement numbers? Console sales matter if you want to build a dedicated console base. That is and has always been a fact. If Xbox continues to do this poorly then maybe it isnt out of the question they hold true to their statement of abandoning gaming in 2027. We shall see I guess won’t we?

This has to be the worst leadership team in gaming

Worst and most PC bunch as well. Just look at the state the xbox division is in and that will tell you everything. But they do all list their preferred pronouns at MS even good old Phil. Shows where their heads are.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Why are so many people happy with the Xbox selling poorly? Serious question.

Literally study the history of Microsoft and you'll have your answer.

Every market MS enters, they try to monopolize and ruin. Every market they are forced out of, the market immediately gets better and more competitive and more free afterwards.

They tried to muscle in on spinning round discs but the entire consumer electronics industry had to work together to fight MS + Toshiba off. Blu-ray was and is a technically superior standard to HD DVD. Today we have 4K UHD Blu-ray and it's only possible because Blu-ray was designed to be extensible like that.

They tried to muscle in on mobile phones but the entire wireless industry had to work together to fight MS off. Windows Phone was kinda shit and had no reason to exist, today we have iOS and Android and phones are infinitely more powerful and free than they could ever have been if they were shackled to running Windows.

They have been trying to muscle in on gaming for over 20 years now. Nobody wants them in gaming. It's time they fucked off and left gamers alone.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

I really don't see how releasing on the Switch 2 would be seen as desperate. Ninteno has a massive userbase and GAAS titles have done well in that eco. MS has loads of GAAS games that would compliment Switch users.

You have to also consider - they aren't gonna drop support for their current consoles, or even stop their plans for their upcoming hardware. They are just gonna widen their publishing targets. This means, they are still going to be supporting the XSS for quite awhile, on top of already looking towards supporting the Switch 2 with some of their titles, such as Minecraft and CoD, the latter of which they are contractually obligated to support, and that is MS biggest revenue earner as of right now.


Ending console exclusivity is the road this is ultimately ending up at for them. Internally, Nadella and other execs have been questioning why they haven't gone this route a long time ago, and this is before the absolute collapse of their HW sales this year.

Ending exclusivity yields them a host of benefits, not the least of which is getting regulators off their backs for future acquisitions. You just have to measure the loss of revenue you'd get from users abandoning the HW platform, to the potential revenue you can make by selling on all platforms, not to mention even your lost users are just as lucky to keep using your software anywhere else.


No, but I have done work as a contractor for many pubs, Zenimax included, even after their acquisition.

I consider that desperate because it is a new console. Even porting games to the Switch would not surprise me as much. Why help a competitor in the hardest part of their job, launching a console? I think that there is no need to be there in the first months as the install base will be too weak to matter, and as the console hardware is a lot different, it will need more work than the ports that they often do. I am being over the top and exaggerating in saying this, but it would be like having more Xbox games on the Switch 2 launch than Nintendo ones. A normal publisher would wait and see before doing this, I think. Of course maybe the industry is certain that the Switch 2 will be like the Switch and sell lots of consoles, and will try to make games for all 3 platforms going forward. Then yes I can understand your post. But I have been so accustomed to see Nintendo being snubbed by publishers that I an still not ready to see that happen.

 

[Varteras]

So where was the location where Xbox won Black Friday?

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Simply incredible how the PS5 is selling. Utter domination. Xbox is embarrassing at this point. Where are all the people bragging about Xbox engagement numbers? Console sales matter if you want to build a dedicated console base. That is and has always been a fact. If Xbox continues to do this poorly then maybe it isnt out of the question they hold true to their statement of abandoning gaming in 2027. We shall see I guess won’t we?

I'm starting to think MS set unrealistic expectations for their Xbox Division with their 100M GP subs by 2027 for that reason.

 

[jm89]

Looks like ms are doing huge discounts in the uk for the series X £369.99 - £379.99, maybe rest of europe might follow with discounts aswell.

Wonder if Sony responds. Slim doesn't look like it actually got any decent discounts atleast outside the USA.

 

[StealthGoblin]

The Xbox Twitter loonies are gonna need to be put on watch when the realisation dawns on them. It's gonna be desperately unfortunate and we'll need more copium.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I'm starting to think MS set unrealistic expectations for their Xbox Division with their 100M GP subs by 2027 for that reason.

I'm not sure for what reason, but they absolutely did set unrealistic expectations. Considering that GP growth has stalled and it has missed its growth target 3 years in a row, there is no way it will hit even 60 million subscribers by 2027, let alone 100 million.

I think they set that unrealistic goal because of internal pressure to perform.

As evident by leaked internal emails and documents, it is evident that Microsoft has been demanding better performance from the Xbox division. They were also not willing to give any more P&L relief to Xbox.

I think to keep the lights on, Xbox set this goal that, if achieved, would satisfy Microsoft's leadership. But we know it is not attainable, and things will change drastically when they inevitably fail in 2027.

Moreover, considering by some of the recent trends and leaks, it is very much possible that that end comes well before 2027.

 

[Melchiah]

Honestly? I can't speak for everyone but for me, it is the following:

1- Fuck MS, why would anyone cheer for the 2 trillion dollar mega-corporation?
2- It's nice to see the trillion-dollar company that has been flexing its "war Chest" by buying publishers and taking away games from other companies being humbled by the other smaller companies
3- Selling poorly may lead them to exit the hardware business and release their games on the relevant platforms, like Sega.
4- I want Game Pass to fail. The Netflix gaming model is devaluing games and this business model sets a dangerous precedent for the gaming industry IMO. I much prefer Sony's and Nintendo's traditional business model.
5- Bitter tears from the Xbox shills and influencers are delicious

+ It's nice to see an America-centric platform fail. It's always amusing how the fans of the platform residing in America can't comprehend that there's no demand for it outside of their bubble. Imagine, if you can, that there's a platform which doesn't have a proper localisation for your language, no presence or online store in your region, and treats your country like a tier 2 area. Would you want to buy that system, and support their low effort practises, eventhough they treat you like a second class customer? Microsoft has had over two decades to make an effort to correct the matter, but they've done nothing about it. You reap what you sow.

 

[xiskza]

Someone posted this on Era:

Nov 2023:
PS5 ~978k
NSW ~267k
XBS ~54k

If this is true....omfg...that's all i'm saying.

Whats the excuse now Xbots? Cant wait for Destiny to break down these numbers... he wont though

 

[TheTony316]

The PS5 broke the all time November record in Europe. It's the best selling system ever with 1.7 million dethroning the NDS at 1.5.

 

[xiskza]

The PS5 broke the all time November record in Europe. It's the best selling system ever with 1.7 million dethroning the NDS at 1.5.

Where did you find those numbers?

 

[TheTony316]

Where did you find those numbers?

Saw it on VGchartz.


Here are the top 12 November European sales (every time a console sold over 1m units)

Console	Year	Sales
PS5	2023	1,710,324
DS	2008	1,556,491
PS4	2015	1,281,992
PS4	2016	1,257,341
DS	2007	1,203,386
PS4	2014	1,134,004
Wii	2008	1,054,118
PS4	2017	1,047,150
Switch	2021	1,034,812
Wii	2009	1,026,395
PS4	2018	1,008,523
Switch	2020	1,004,781

 

[Thirty7ven]

Dying to hear the Xbox geniuses in podcasts argue that hey “Europe is all about PC, so MS is focused on PC in Europe” because you know that just makes so much sense.

 

[yurinka]

I know the benefits for Microsoft in shifting to being a full 3P as it would, as you said, help get regulators off their back (at least in theory; I actually think it wouldn't help too much because there are other concern points for the market in terms of consolidation that will come into the picture). But I'm more interested in what Sony's benefits would be in that scenario.

Sony benefits on the MS going 3P scenario:

• PS would get (maybe temporary) monopoly on high end home consoles, as Switch had with portables this gen. Meaning, the PS userbase would grow due to getting an important part of the formerly XB userbase.
• PS would get all future MS games. Not only Mojang, Zenimax and ABK, also the MGS ones like Fable, Halo, Gears, Hellblade etc.
• Sony won't need to moneyhat console exclusives that in the past had to keep away from XB or GP, so they will be able to invest this money on 1st/2nd party games or acquisitions (not big 3P publishers because wouldn't be needed and regulators probably wouldn't allow it).
• Since PS userbase would grow, several 3P who now choose Switch would now choose PS instead.

Even if, for example, regulators by some chance ease up on Microsoft buying publishers if they went full 3P, would Sony (or Nintendo for that matter, or Apple and Google considering the likelihood MS will be able to establish a storefront on their mobile devices and bypass Apple & Google's own stores or giving them a 30% cut) feel comfortable with a singular entity consolidating so much of the 3P publisher market? I just don't think that concern, or the legit issues with that type of consolidation, suddenly disappear just because Microsoft step away from being a platform holder and focus more on being a full 3P publisher themselves.

Seems that regulators will force at least in Android to allow 3P stores. Meaning we'll end seeing there Epic, MS and Sony stores in Android.

If Xbox is totally dead, Sony could allow MS include a limited version of GP in PS, which only would include MS games published to be sold in PS, while also including some of them in PS Plus. The equivalent to what Sony already does with EA or Ubisoft subs.

Currently I'm picturing a hardware future for Xbox where they might try making it as much like a PC as possible but find some way to "gimp" Windows where it isn't as open to run alternative storefronts on it. Or, they do just let that happen (particularly since they themselves will be able to likely have storefronts on Apple & Google devices) and the cost of the gaming hardware goes up to reflect it. So say for example whatever specs a PS6 has, Microsoft refreshes their higher-end (mid-high end?) PC gaming device to roughly be on that level spec-wise, but it's going to run close to $900 or $1000. That's to make up for the fact it can basically run some edition of Windows, run alternative gaming storefronts upfront, run all the productivity software Windows PCs run, etc.

And you're still getting hardware that gaming-wise is at or above comparable NUCs/mini-PCs from other vendors, you're still getting something with a console-style form factor & footprint (but open to RAM expansions and maybe CPU upgrades & smaller form factor GPU expansions), controller, storage, a gaming UI by default basically an extension of what Xbox systems already do today, and so forth.

Putting all the fanboy stuff aside, genuinely I feel that's probably the best path for Xbox hardware going forward. To me it just makes too much sense. And maybe that is where Microsoft are going to take it but have to ease and ween their most diehard Xbox fanatics into that reality.

I originally thought MS would stop making their own hardware and would make their own version of the Steam Machines: console shaped PCs that fit certain specs build by other brands. But the thing is that these brands wouldn't get any benefit because they'd prefer to do it using Steam as store, or as main store.

Hmm...this is a very interesting change of tune for you

Nah, it isn't. The majority of the games under development to be published by Sony aren't GaaS. While almost all the main MS IPs already are GaaS. There's Gears and Doom left and I'd bet their next entry will be GaaS.

1st/2nd party GaaS are a help for Sony, they are very important and need them for their future. But they are very successful with their non-GaaS games, so they will continue focusing on growing them too. It's what I always thought and said.

True, but it's been some tough growing pains and the means of that growth may not be so clear-cut. Take today's news with Naughty Dog as a good example.

No, to have some important changes, delays and cancellations during development always have been normal business in the gaming industry. There's nothing special in that front in the GaaS side.

Well that's the trajectory things seem to be heading in now that's for certain. Question is how long will it take to get there, and does MS becoming a "full 3P" still mean they keep Xbox hardware around as a console, keep it around as a gaming-centric PC line, or just phase out the hardware altogether but keep peripherals like controllers going?

I think that's the question no one has an answer to yet other than those in the deepest of the Xbox division and Microsoft itself.

MS has been slowly moving away from Xbox since a long time ago and slowly transitioning to being a multiplatform 3P. Not sure when, but at some point they will kill their own hardware (gamepads may continue alive) and say 'now Xbox is now a digital ecosystem that covers all gaming platforms: PC, mobile, smart tvs, PS and Nintendo'.

They are already saying similar things, and if they can skip the 30% cut in mobile (something that sees will happen in a few years) they may accelerate it. Apparently they are working on a next gen console, which I assume it will be the last one if they release it.

But their market share is shrinking year after year, to a point that they may decide they don't have enough Xbox userbase or market share to continue fighting for the console market and that it's time to go 3rd party. Specially that now with ABK they will be the top 1 3rd party on console and a one of the top 3rd parties in mobile too.

I think they will be fine and ok as 3rd party, specially if in addition to stopping the Xbox hardware and related moneyhats, which are only money sinks, they also cut the '3rd party games day one on GP' moneyhats, which is also a worthless money sink because GP growth is stagnant and isn't worth to keep trowing billions at it.

They would be able to refocus their main goal to sell games, and then they'd remove including their 1st party games on GP day one following that new focus, copying the more reasonable focus of Sony for game subs: including there games that already completed -or almost- their sales lifecycle.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Latest Spain sales, Spain accounts for about 7% of the European market.

Spain | Week 49, 2023 | Retail | Gamereactor

1. Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Switch): ~20.000 / >150.000
2. EA Sports FC 24 (PS4): 10.500 / ¿?
3. Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora (PS5): >10.000 / New
4. EA Sports FC 24 (PS5):
5. EA Sports FC 24 (Switch):
6. Nintendo Switch Sports (Switch): >7.000 / ¿?
7. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Switch):
8. Marvel's Spider-Man 2 (PS5):
9. Hogwarts Legacy (Switch):
10. Just Dance 2024 (Switch):

Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora (ALL): ~12.000 / New

Grand Theft Auto V (ALL): 2.500 / ¿?


Hardware:

PS5: 15.000 (11.500 'Slim' | 2.500 Digital) / 462.200 YTD / 1.059.000 LTD
Switch: 13.000 (~98% OLED+Standard) / 328.200 YTD
XBS: 1.000 (750 X ) / 74.900 YTD
PSVR2: 300 / ¿?
PlayStation Portal: 100 / ~7.350

 

[SkylineRKR]

This is pretty dire. The Xbox is about 400 euros for about 2 months now, the Series X. The PS5 costs about 150 more. There is simply no message. I never see any ads.

 

[SimTourist]

This is pretty dire. The Xbox is about 400 euros for about 2 months now, the Series X. The PS5 costs about 150 more. There is simply no message. I never see any ads.

That's the problem with having an undesirable product out on the market, at some point even price cuts don't work. At this point Sony could jack up the price on the PS5 to 600 or 700 dollars and get away with it easily, people would grumble for a bit but still wouldn't go for an xbox. The perceived value of the Xbox brand has never been lower.

 

[SkylineRKR]

That's the problem with having an undesirable product out on the market, at some point even price cuts don't work. At this point Sony could jack up the price on the PS5 to 600 or 700 dollars and get away with it easily, people would grumble for a bit but still wouldn't go for an xbox. The perceived value of the Xbox brand has never been lower.

It seems to be the case and its kind of strange as the Series is pretty good. It was on time, not more expensive, not less powerful and it kind of had the same games as the PS5 during the maiden year. Sure, Sony differentiated itself with good 1p output when shortages stopped. And yeah, MS pretty much seems to have no marketing whatsoever in Europe.

Really, the PS5 would've been much, much further ahead if half of this generations current lifetime wasn't marred by supply issues.

 

[Sw0pDiller]

I'm starting to think MS set unrealistic expectations for their Xbox Division with their 100M GP subs by 2027 for that reason.

Well, their plan is to launch gamepass on PS and Switch and maybe then they can make it. 2027 is still about 3 years off so it could still happen. OR let microsoft game studio PC games only be playable through a GP launcher with a GP login accont. Then they can boost numbers. Just like how they boosted GP subs by adding all xbox live subs to the GP nametag. I bet within a year everybody who owns a battlenet login will be added to the GP family. WELCOME! and then they can boost even further about number of logins per day! IGN and windows central will love it!

 

[Daneel Elijah]

It seems to be the case and its kind of strange as the Series is pretty good. It was on time, not more expensive, not less powerful and it kind of had the same games as the PS5 during the maiden year. Sure, Sony differentiated itself with good 1p output when shortages stopped. And yeah, MS pretty much seems to have no marketing whatsoever in Europe.

Really, the PS5 would've been much, much further ahead if half of this generations current lifetime wasn't marred by supply issues.

Brand power is a thing. Consistency is a good quality too. You know what Nintendo means. Same for Playstation. Sadly Xbox is not the same. In the PS2 generation Xbox was the best console for adults. I was a kid, so it was not for me. The 360 was the best for online, and even more for FPS. Not into FPS, and multi so not for me. We know what Xbox did for the Xbox One. And now Xbox means Gamepass. If you are not into subscriptions, then Gamepass appeal is weaker. Then all of Xbox deal get weaker by association. When they will have games, it will change. But it will take time. And they are late, as Redfall or Starfield don't help with their image problem.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

Brand power is a thing. Consistency is a good quality too. You know what Nintendo means. Same for Playstation. Sadly Xbox is not the same. In the PS2 generation Xbox was the best console for adults. I was a kid, so it was not for me. The 360 was the best for online, and even more for FPS. Not into FPS, and multi so not for me. We know what Xbox did for the Xbox One. And now Xbox means Gamepass. If you are not into subscriptions, then Gamepass appeal is weaker. Then all of Xbox deal get weaker by association. When they will have games, it will change. But it will take time. And they are late, as Redfall or Starfield don't help with their image problem.

I was an adult in the 6th gen and no, Xbox was not the best console for adults. It was the best for Windows users looking to get into the console market. The PS2 was that console.

I mostly agree regarding the 360. Best Xbox console by far and hasn't been matched by its parent company since.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

I was an adult in the 6th gen and no, Xbox was not the best console for adults. It was the best for Windows users looking to get into the console market. The PS2 was that console.

I mostly agree regarding the 360. Best Xbox console by far and hasn't been matched by its parent company since.

Hard to find something good to say about it. I often heard that it had a big controller and that it was better for adults but I never tested it so no idea. OF COURSE that the PS2 library was better for all. But that was outside of Xbox control.

 

[nowhat]

I mostly agree regarding the 360. Best Xbox console by far and hasn't been matched by its parent company since.

It was a great console, hardware issues aside. But I got a used model and never had issues with it, so I guess I won the lottery. My only complaint was the D-pad on the controller. Tekken - forget about it. Or pretty much anything where a half-decent D-pad was required.

 

[Woopah]

I thought the same when saw the sentence.

Mat confirmed that all platforms were down at least 20%

I consider that desperate because it is a new console. Even porting games to the Switch would not surprise me as much. Why help a competitor in the hardest part of their job, launching a console? I think that there is no need to be there in the first months as the install base will be too weak to matter, and as the console hardware is a lot different, it will need more work than the ports that they often do. I am being over the top and exaggerating in saying this, but it would be like having more Xbox games on the Switch 2 launch than Nintendo ones. A normal publisher would wait and see before doing this, I think. Of course maybe the industry is certain that the Switch 2 will be like the Switch and sell lots of consoles, and will try to make games for all 3 platforms going forward. Then yes I can understand your post. But I have been so accustomed to see Nintendo being snubbed by publishers that I an still not ready to see that happen.

If they take a wait and see approach they will miss out on the money they could make in the first years of Switch 2.

If their start planning and preparing now, they will be in a much better position to make money from the platform.

Sony benefits on the MS going 3P scenario:

• Since PS userbase would grow, several 3P who now choose Switch would now choose PS instead

Fully agree with the rest of your post but not sure about this part.

Which third parties do you think would do this? Wouldn't the Switch 2 userbase also grow from MS going full third party?

I think it's more likely that third parties will be supporting both PS and Switch ecosystems, and that MS' decision wouldn't really affect the platform decisions of other publishers.

 

[yurinka]

Fully agree with the rest of your post but not sure about this part.

Which third parties do you think would do this? Wouldn't the Switch 2 userbase also grow from MS going full third party?

I think it's more likely that third parties will be supporting both PS and Switch ecosystems, and that MS' decision wouldn't really affect the platform decisions of other publishers.

My idea is that if Xbox dissapears, there's a portion of Xbox players who already are on other consoles or PC, so would continue playing there. The people who only play on Xbox would move to either PC, PS or Switch.

You'd think many of them would move to PC, following MS and GP, but if MS completes their transition to going full 3P it would mean their games will be on PS. And many console players play on console and not in PC for many reasons.

So I think a big majority of the Xbox only players would move to PS. So between Switch and PS, PS would be the most benefited. On top of that, people will see PS more appealing because now would have the former 1st and 3rd party Xbox exclusives.

I also think that independently if Xbox dies or not, the PS userbase will be bigger than now specially in the non-Japan Asia due to growing their brands via PC, mobile and movies or tv shows plus taking extra efforts like China/India Hero project and deals with Korean companies.

Considering everything, I think PS will have a considerably bigger userbase around 5 years from now. While I think Nintendo will see their portables monopoly broken due to PC handhelds (but with Nintendo still having like 66.6%-75% of the portables market) as soon as due to times costs go low and for the same price of a Switch 2 you'll be able to get a similar or more powerful PC handheld equivalent. There's also a nascent market of AAA games on mobile (we just saw a few examples in Apple, and there are the Meta Quest games, which are Andriod games), that I think in 5 years from now will be bigger but still pretty small.

So certain 3P companies will choose PS+PC (which includes PC handhelds), particularly indies who aren't Nintendo fanboys because they won't need Switch to get a portable version of their game and because for having a console version of their game they'll favor the console with the biggest install base, which I think will be PS.

But I'm not saying that all 3rd parties that still are there will drop their support to Switch 2. I think only a small portion -and most will be indies- will do, but when having to choose between Nintendo or Sony exclusives more will choose PS than they do now.

 

[Melchiah]

Brand power is a thing. Consistency is a good quality too. You know what Nintendo means. Same for Playstation. Sadly Xbox is not the same. In the PS2 generation Xbox was the best console for adults. I was a kid, so it was not for me. The 360 was the best for online, and even more for FPS. Not into FPS, and multi so not for me. We know what Xbox did for the Xbox One. And now Xbox means Gamepass. If you are not into subscriptions, then Gamepass appeal is weaker. Then all of Xbox deal get weaker by association. When they will have games, it will change. But it will take time. And they are late, as Redfall or Starfield don't help with their image problem.

WTF?! I was 25 when the PS2 came out, and it was by far the best console for a horror fan with Silent Hill 2-4, Shadow of Memories, Project Zero 1-3, Resident Evil: Code Veronica + 4, Siren 1-2, Rule of Rose, The Thing... Everything worthwhile but REmake was available on the platform.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

WTF?! I was 25 when the PS2 came out, and it was by far the best console for a horror fan with Silent Hill 2-4, Shadow of Memories, Project Zero 1-3, Resident Evil: Code Veronica + 4, Siren 1-2, Rule of Rose, The Thing... Everything worthwhile but REmake was available on the platform.

Already answered that to someone else. It was about the controller. Of course the PS2 library is the best ever. I think that by tomorrow I will have a lot of people angry with me...my fault for not being clear enough.Sorry.

 

[Melchiah]

Already answered that to someone else. It was about the controller. Of course the PS2 library is the best ever. I think that by tomorrow I will have a lot of people angry with me...my fault for not being clear enough.Sorry.

So, the PS2 controller isn't fit for adult hands?

 

[Daneel Elijah]

So, the PS2 controller isn't fit for adult hands?

It was a thing that I heard often enough. I loved the Dualshock 2 and even now I don't have a problem with it. But I remember some people online that were with the enormous Xbox controller and decided to put it as a good point in my post. I had to say something good about it. Not easy when I never was into it back then.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

This is beyond dire. Xbox is in very serious trouble. They are pretty much dead in mainland Europe with no hope of recovery and non-existent in Asia. US and UK are the only places where Xbox is still relevant and it’s still less popular than the PS5 by a significant margin. MS really fucked up the brand over the last decade and have thrown away any goodwill they gained during the 360 era.

The thing about brands and marketshare is that they can get significantly worse if left unattended over time. MS has ignored the Xbox brand for too long and buying out a lot of studios or publishers isn’t gonna salvage their brand image. The perception now more than ever is that PS is the place to go for AAA high quality games both first and third party. Starfield flopping and Redfall being an absolute disaster did nothing to change that perception this year. If Starfield couldn’t do it for MS, nothing will.

Microsoft would be complete idiots to keep going in this same trajectory going into next gen. Which is why I believe that this will be the last generation of traditional consoles for MS. Another traditional console from MS next gen would risk performing even worse than the Xbox Series consoles now.

The funny thing is that I predicted exactly this would happen at the start of the gen but a lot of people called me delusional. Those same people are now very quiet and completely dumbfounded by Xbox’s terrible performance right now. I didn’t predict this because I’m some kind of genius, I predicted this because it’s pretty obvious to anyone who isn’t sipping the koolaid being given to us by the western gaming media. MS has spent millions on astroturfing and trying to brainwash gamers through the gaming media into being on their side. I completely ignore the propaganda and look at sales trends and what my two eyeballs and brain are telling me. What my eyes and brain are telling me is that MS has completely lost the plot and a lot of average gamers don’t give a crap about Xbox or GamePass for that matter.

Sales and interest in Xbox software and hardware have been on a huge downward spiral since 2013 and for some reason people in the gaming media and forum astroturfers completely ignore this reality and focus on GamePass and the likability of Phil Spencer. No one in my casual gaming friends circles talks about Xbox or is excited about the brand. All they talk about is PlayStation and the Switch but when you get on Twitter and forums it’s like MS is the dominant brand. Complete switch on reality. Which tells me that MS has very vocal and numerous fans online or they pay a lot of astroturfers and the gaming media to market for them. I think it’s the latter.

 

[SkylineRKR]

Gamepass is a catch 22, and has gotten more expensive as well. Its in no mans land. If you want to play the latest games; GP isn't worthwhile since almost nothing of relevance appears on it day one (is RE4 from early this year available? no). If you barely play you have to ask the question if its worth your cash too. There are some discounts on there, some indies, and some old games. That is if you even want to play them or have the time for those. I just bought some occasional games from the store, like KI for 10 bucks, I bought Ninja Gaiden 2 on sale (which was later removed, because of the shitty Sigma trilogy version), I bought some indies on sale etc. They are mine to keep and can be played without GP sub.

Xbox was merely lucky with the shortages. Their narrative of not believing in generations worked for a few months, because Sony didn't have much next-gen ready too (as impacted by covid and other things). But MS is still running that narrative. And Sony laughs. Yeah, there is no real Smart Delivery on PS5. But think about it; who cares? You want a PS5 version. And rather a PS5 exclusive. And you don't want an XSS in your ecosystem as Baldur's Gate and many other developers claim. So fuck Smart Delivery?

MS should've dropped Xbone for many of their exclusives way earlier. Just make Halo Infinite and FH5 for Series only, and tell your fans you have to upgrade to this system. I mean its nothing to be ashamed of one year into a new generation. Granted Sony also kept going cross-gen with some of their big games, but still released the odd PS5 exclusive like Demon's Souls, Returnal and Ratchet early on. Besides, PS4 was in a better place than Xbone anyway. MS is the one that seeks to recover market share.

 

[Banjo64]

I'm starting to think MS set unrealistic expectations for their Xbox Division with their 100M GP subs by 2027 for that reason.

Surely Xbox themselves pitched that figure to the MS board as part of their projections in order to secure funding agreement for their purchases.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I'm starting to think MS set unrealistic expectations for their Xbox Division with their 100M GP subs by 2027 for that reason.

Nadella to Phil in a couple of years.

 

[Thirty7ven]

There’s no way GP gets to 100 million by 2027. There’s probably little chance it gets to 50 million. People think that clockwork game or Hellblade 3, or Blade is going to push subs? Those games highest goal is to reduce churn, and keep people that already have GP from unsubscribing.

People who thought this was Netflix, and the MS idiot who said PlayStation was blockbuster, are learning cold hard truths about the real world and how it’s not as easy as copying a model from another industry. There’s no water cooler here, these idiots really thought my wife would suddenly know how to control a 3D camera through a controller? What the fuck man, do these people making decisions even know how to play games?

 

[skit_data]

To me it seems its
"taking a long time for Xbox to see that their future exists off of their own hardware."

 

[SneakersSO]

This is pretty dire. The Xbox is about 400 euros for about 2 months now, the Series X. The PS5 costs about 150 more. There is simply no message. I never see any ads.

A big reduction on ad spend promoting the console happened not long after Starfield launched. Not just in EU, but WW even, and right before the holidays to boot. Can't really be surprised at the results, but ad campaigns are typically flexible enough to allow you to save some money in the short term as you change-up long-term plans.

 

[SneakersSO]

There’s no way GP gets to 100 million by 2027. There’s probably little chance it gets to 50 million. People think that clockwork game or Hellblade 3, or Blade is going to push subs? Those games highest goal is to reduce churn, and keep people that already have GP from unsubscribing.

There were several growth milestones they were expecting to hit before 2027 and outside of the ones they hit thanks to the boost Covid/pandemic gave them and everyone else, they have yet to hit any of them, and are churning around the same number of users, more or less. They also massively overshot how much they expected to invest in the division. Again - Covid boost to GP really blinded them on how well the service was actually doing.

To put it bluntly, when Nadella removed GP growth off of his KPIs, a whole heck of a lot changed at Xbox and Microsoft gaming.

 

[Fabieter]

I seriously think they would make a bigger profit without having to worry about hardware at all. What's the hold up?