3d fighting in general declined hard this gen, despite each of the 4 major series getting their best or 2nd best game in the series.
The real issue is that 3d games in the established franchises are too comparatively difficult for new blood to want to bother, when they can learn AE or grind out combos into anime games. 3d takes a lot more thinking, and thinking is something that benefits experience.
I don't think it will change unless someone comes up with a successful new IP, and companies are too risk-averse to even try that now. New IP= new chars= everyone starts from a similar page. It's not going to happen, it's way too risky ,and the only franchise with any sot of nostalgia is Toshinden.
I really wish SNK had succeeded with their 3d reboot of Samsho now.
eeeehhh. 3D fighters did fine. SCIV, SCV, T6, TTT2, VF5, VF5FS, DoA4, DoA5 and DoA5U were all pretty successful despite declining sales in the genre. I mean if you're getting Final Showdown and Ultimate updates, then clearly there must have been significant enough profits to validate an update.
If you look at the most successful fighting games from last gen, it probably goes like this:
1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl with an overwhelming sales lead on all other titles
2. Street Fighter IV across its various releases and iterations
3. Tekken 6
4. Mortal Kombat (2011)
5. Soul Calibur IV
I will agree that there needs to be a new IP for 3D fighters. On the other hand, however, I do believe 3D fighters are a lot harder to make (especially in the HD era). 2D fighters are (I assume) easier, which is why you have so many of them with new IPs all around (animmeeeee).
Namco, Sega, or Tecmo are really the only powerhouse studios for 3D fighters and they will stick with established IPs instead of risk something new. You will have TKXSF, so that's pretty much going to be your "new IP" and maybe it might introduce some ideas that might transform some parts of the genre.
And I'm sure we'll get another Tekken and another Dead or Alive. Though, I am worried about Virtua Fighter's future. Regardless, sales for these series will pick up again with next gen entries. A LOT of people are anticipating a 3D fighter to really showcase the hardware potential for PS4 so there's that.
you're probably right about each 3d series getting their best or second best entry this gen.
SCV - best or second best depending on how you feel about SCII
TT2 - second to 5BR from what I gather
VF5FS - second best to 4FT
DoA5U - best or second to 3.1
have I missed anything?
TTT2 is not second to anything. IT IS FIRSSSSSST!!!. As much as I love Tekken 5. Never played DR.