My opinion.
Didn't XV sell like 10 million copies? Sure that was also on PC and XBox, but XBox yeah was probably only 20% of sales and PC not very much.
If you want to say that FF has become a niche franchise... then yeah it has.
Since when is 10 million lifetime sales niche? Maybe it depends on budgets & marketing, but even so, 10 million is nothing to sneeze at.
Truth is vast majority of AAA games do not break beyond 10 million in lifetime sales. People got too used looking at the exceptions (COD, Zelda, Spiderman, GOW, Mario Kart, Smash Bros. Pokemon, GTA5 etc.) and now think that is the rule.
That's because you don't understand Sony's communication strategy. Their aim is to create a context where SF = PS even though SF gets released on other consoles. They have worked like this since 1995 by the way.
What? They never did this. Back in '95 they got a timed deal for MK3, that's about it. Most console players of SF games went with Saturn because the 2D was slightly better. SF EX were side games by Arika and they defaulted to PS because the arcade version was made on PS-like hardware. The games were default PS-exclusive because Arika were a smaller dev, Capcom was busy with other games, and the N64 & Saturn would've required too much work in terms of ports.
This is why they bought EVO and forced tournaments on PS4 despite the abysmal port of USF4 (that had to go back to being played on 360 by the way). Back then people knew that 360 was the superior platform for fighting games, so they bought their place in that market.
So, nothing different by your logic to what Microsoft are trying to do in gaming as a whole. I.e they know the majority of customers, developers, and publishers prefer buying and working with PlayStation, so they can only "compete" by purchasing 3P publishers who have close partnerships with Sony, and hopefully force customers to buy Xboxes by foreclosing more and more games of acquired assets on PlayStation platforms.
...
With the notion SF = PS now implanted in people minds, they don't feel a need to pay for SF6 again, which is completely logical. People are going so skip Xbox anyway now, so why pay ? Casuals will buy the game so at least there's that for Capcom. Sony will only pay when they feel that the market might slightly shift again towards competition.
The game's already sold 2+ million copies, so obviously people think it's worth paying for. The question is: if the audience on Xbox were as big as people have constantly made it out to be, wouldn't the overall sales be even larger than they currently are?
Can't on the one hand say games like SFV should have released on Xbox because the audience was there to buy it, then claim SF6 has a low purchasing percentage on Xbox because of people being jaded over SFV. They complained, Capcom responded, they didn't buy. So, when the next game comes around, Capcom have less of an incentive to prioritize Xbox, and the cycle repeats all over again.
We've literally seen this happen with Square-Enix.
When your game is exclusive, you are not fighting against your main competitors on the platforms that you skip as well. So you are losing market share.
So Nintendo lost market share by making TOTK exclusive? Sony's lost market share making GOW Ragnarok and Spiderman exclusive? Aren't the Insomniac Spiderman games the best-selling iterations of that IP in gaming history?
Making exclusive a multiplatform series that is a main source of benefits is always super risky for a third party. I think that Capcom are paying the price, and Square Enix as well.
Mind you I did not once say SF6 sold badly; it's outperforming SFV launch-aligned, so your idea that Capcom are "paying a price" for SFV being console-exclusive to PS4 doesn't even have anything to stand on. I just mentioned SF6 because so many have been wanting to say FF XVI is a failure, yet it sold more copies in a shorter span of time on less platforms than one of the biggest multiplatform releases of the year.
There are SO many multiplat IPs with dwindling sales that the idea going exclusive for one installment hurts the next doesn't really hold up...except, ironically, in cases like Tomb Raider. Where going XBO-exclusive for Rise of the Tomb Raider, negatively impacted that game's release on PS4, which then negatively impacted its sequel. Ironically the only recent instances I can think of where a game's sequel performed worst than the previous one due to exclusivity, are when said previous installments were
Xbox console exclusive :/