If 1st crystal has 5% chance of being rainbow and the other 10 have 1% chance of being rainbow then the chance of getting a rainbow is
1 - (0.95)*(0.99)^10 = 14%
That's where the "hell" the number comes from.
This is the correct calculation.
GL doesn't have stacking, the base will be harder to reach for that.
Bracers are a bit better. More ATK, More HP.
But the Ruler Ring is basically 80-90% of it. For none of the grind.
Bingo. Exactly this. Could have applied the TM credit towards something significantly useful than a marginally incremental upgrade over a craftable that I will be swimming in 3 days after the patch.
Welp, sunk costs are sunk costs. I'm over 90% on the bracer, so I might as well finish it out at this point.
I want Ramza and Ramza, and Ramza, and Ramza. That's my choice.
I have enough moogles to buy out the rest of my Brave Suit, if I wanted. Awfully tempted to do so...
In memoriam for the death of Troll Rainbows, how many have you guys historically pulled?
Out of 12 rainbows, I'm pretty sure I got:
Gilbert
Kefka
WoL
Only a 25% troll chance. Considering the expected trollcentage is 50% ... Lyrian, help. What metric do we use to measure expected vs. actual value?
I'm assuming that you are counting a troll as a 3 or 4* base that appears as a troll 5* and not an off-banner 5* base (this would be a good pull, perhaps?)?
The long-term expected off-banner rainbow rate is 50%, but the percentage of trolls is generally increasing over time as a proportion of the 50% miss rate. Over time, with increasing unit pools, the percentage of true 5*s from a off-banner rainbow becomes smaller and smaller as more potential troll crystals enter the summon pool.
The answer would depend at the point of time you pulled each rainbow and the number of potential units that were available at the time for each rainbow.
That said, if the summon change did not occur, the trend would be for more and more trolls to continually enter the summon pull as for every 1 true rainbow added, there are 2-3 potential trolls added with each and every banner.
(First one was just crafted, supposedly in JPN. Took 300+ Hero Rings)
Saw a post about that. That's crazy. Hard to derive what the actual drop rate on the components with a sample size of 1, but it seemed like the components from the higher trophy rings were increasingly rarer than earlier ones. However, that could have just been good/bad luck in play.
Still, it would be (virtually) impossible for anyone on Global to ever craft one of the Exceed Rings before the crafting time removal change happpens (it's 3 days per ring upgrade before then, correct?).