But the folks that picked Lucina are going to have a very hard time getting ranked at all right? It's all about the feathers
.
Assuming that every hero's army is using flags in more-or-less the same way, it appears that about 1/3 of people are on Team Lucina right now. I say this because I'm rank 15k in that team and rank 46k overall. It's true that you get fewer feathers when you're on a more popular team, but you also win more rounds. The average team other than Lucina's will have about 30% as many people as hers. The average
winning team in the first round will have somewhat more than that. I'm not sure if there's a round 1 match where
both heroes are significantly less popular than the average non-Lucina. Possibly Ephraim vs Leo?
Someone with my score on Team Alphonse would presumably be something like top 5k. But note that I get 500 extra feathers for Lucina beating Sharena. So my top 30k position is still getting me 100 feathers more in total, and only 100 less even if that score is sufficient for top 1k on Team Alphonse. If you're not competing for top 1k or 5k on whatever loser team you're on then you're definitely better off on Team Lucina.
The feather-maximizing strategy was probably to go with the most popular hero on the left side of the bracket, so that you pocket 1000 feathers from round wins before getting crushed in the final. Chrom, I assume, though maybe Japanese people like Ephraim. That gives you three rounds on a somewhat less popular team to make up the 500 feather loss in the finals. You probably do okay picking someone who's going to get knocked out in the semis - you can just switch to Lucina for the final anyway.
Also note that it will get harder and harder to get a good in-army rank as the rounds go on, because with fewer heroes there will be more people per hero. Let's say that your rank is multiplied by 1.5 each round, figuring that 1/3 of people sided with losing heroes. This makes it very hard to place in later rounds, and since the difference between a 10k-30k finish and a >100k finish is only 400 feathers, being on the winning team after round 1 is huge. Lucina needs to have 10x as many people as the other hero in the finals in order for the typical person on the other team to compete in feathers.
Edit: I've just talked myself into spending more than a proportional share of flags on round 1 to try to get top 10k, since it's going to be a lot harder to place well in later rounds.