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Fire Emblem Heroes |OT|The Future of Fire Emblem
- Thread starter Shun
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You're not computing the conditional probability correctly. It does not appear that the game is randomly choosing a color and then assigning the stone a focus hero with 3% probability, a regular 5* with 3% probability, etc. Instead, it seems to be first determining the rarity of the hero, then randomly choosing a hero from that rarity, and only then does it look at the color of that hero and show the appropriate color of stone. When you work this out, it actually is the case that each focus hero for a color is individually about 3% likely when you choose a stone of that color.
The reason for this is basically that there are 4 colors and banners are ~4 focus heroes. A random hero has a 3% chance to be a non-focus 5*, and so about a 0.75% chance of being a non-focus 5* of a particular color. A random hero has a 3% chance to be a focus 5*, and so about an n*0.75% chance of being a focus 5* of a particular color, where n is the number of focus 5*s of that color. You are about as likely to get a non-focus 5* as you are any particular focus 5* for that color, and your chances at a non-focus 5* are about 3%, so your chances at any particular focus 5* are about 3% if you're picking the appropriate color. The averages work out because of course if you're picking a color without a focus hero you have a 0% chance of finding one.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Anyone? Or is it basically don't make any moves until skill inheritance?
StrikeNinja24
Banned
You might as well wait to see how skill inheritance plays out
Went with Ephraim out of respect for the previous round.
I'm out of flags anyway, so I'll take my loss and last place feathers.
I did a pull for the effie/Nino banner and got two 3* Ninos. Better than nothing, I guess. One is +atk - spd, which might be kind of bad but maybe I can buff her enough so that she doesn't need to double.
I'm out of flags anyway, so I'll take my loss and last place feathers.
I did a pull for the effie/Nino banner and got two 3* Ninos. Better than nothing, I guess. One is +atk - spd, which might be kind of bad but maybe I can buff her enough so that she doesn't need to double.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Yea might as well I suppose. Sharena seems like such a good fit with Eirika and Nino though.
I mean, Eirika is already giving Nino an attack boost. Do they stack? If not, I would seek out a speed buffer.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Pretty sure rally attack stacks with Eirika's Spur Attack. Also Sharena gives boosts to defense making Nino even more powerful.
Eirika gives Speed too.
Eirika's (weapon) has Hone Attack, not Spur attack.
Oh, I didn't realize that. Thought she only boosted attack.
/
So do Hone Attack and Rally Attack stack
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Bah, just checked and they don't. Only bonuses I've seen that stack are the Goad skills since you just need to be within two spaces when the action occurs.
My understanding is that there are basically four classes of buff. Spur type buffs apply to nearby combats and stack with everything including each other. Hone buffs apply to nearby characters at the start of the turn and last for a turn, and only the single largest buff to a particular stat applies. Rally buffs are manually applied via an assist skill and otherwise function as Hone buffs - they don't stack with each other or with Hone buffs. Defiant buffs activate when a character is hurt and last for a turn, and these I think also stack with everything.
SenorArdilla
Member
Rally, Hone/Fortify, and Defiant don't stack. The strongest one takes priority.
The Rally/Hone/Fortify/Defiant buff will stack with the Spur/Goad/Ward (During Combat) passive.
The Rally/Hone/Fortify/Defiant buff will stack with the Spur/Goad/Ward (During Combat) passive.
I don't think Defiant or Spur buffs trigger Nino's weapon ability, though. Well, Spur buffs definitely don't, but I don't know how Defiant will work.
Edit: Sorry for double post.
If all heroes of a certain rarity have the same chance of being drawn, and the game always pre-draws 5 characters according to their rarity (covering them with color gems so you can't tell what you are picking), wouldn't the uneven distribution of 5-star units among the different colors mess this up some?
It seems like red would always have the highest chance at 5-star units, since Int Sys doesn't seem to be set on fixing their color distributions.
theprodigy
Member
Well no, which color has the highest conditional probability of 5* is almost entirely dependent on the focus list (though I suppose the "natural" probabilities are red/green>blue>colorless, not that the difference is notable).
Because while there are more 5* reds, there's also more 4*/3* reds.
Dr_LawyerCop
Member
I've been playing this game pretty casually since it's launch and I'm now at the point where I'd like to get a little more serious. Is there a good in-depth guide? What's the best way to post your box and ask for advice? I have 5 5-stars (Nowi, Corrin (male), Cain, Tiki, and Linde) and about 17 4-stars and I'm at the point where I'd like to build cohesive teams. I'm trying to clear Lv 30 Ursula but I don't know what I can do kill Ursula. If I just over level my best guys to 40 would I be able to brute force it?
Game's a lot of fun, but I definitely need to learn more about the systems to advance further.
Game's a lot of fun, but I definitely need to learn more about the systems to advance further.
I'm not quite sure what you're asking. There will be more red 5*s than 5*s of other colors, just because there are more unique red 5*s. That is, there are as many Ryomas and Leos as there are Hectors.
But your chances of getting a 5* when picking an orb of a particular color are, like theprodigy says, influenced by the number of 3*s and 4*s of each color. A red focus hero increases your odds of a red 5* less than a green focus hero increases your odds of a green 5* because there are more red stones than green stones, and the extras are mostly trash.
Wyndstryker
Member
Well if this keeps up I'll be in the rank 1-1000 of the voting gauntlet.
Rank 737 and I still got flags to throw. Sure Ephraim is probably
going to lose but at least I'll be making bank
Rank 737 and I still got flags to throw. Sure Ephraim is probably
he's so going to lose
Cool, thanks.
Didn't bother to write down any of character's stats at level 1, so I'll just have to hope they didn't get hindering natures.
I've got to say though, this:
just seems like a really dumb UI decision to me. Especially since your team size is 4 but the screens for all other team management stuff fit 5 heroes into a row.
WRT summoning, between your explanation and Gotchaye's clarification, it sounds like what the game does when you start a summon session is actually just roll five heroes behind the scenes based on the overall probabilities, then show you the colors of each one? Like they dealt out five cards facedown from a deck, so in a sense by the time you see the five orbs, whatever heroes you're going to get for that session have already been predetermined by the game?
First one is a lot better but don't merge or send home until we find out more details on skill inheritance and potential promotion to 6*.
SixMachine
Member
I just got around to beating Ursula's map. I had to spend most of my energy trying to level Olwen to 40 so I can actually have a max level caster (she is my only ranged 5* unit). I beat it with Palla, Hinoka, Olivia and Olwen. I sent Hinoka out first and destroyed the first wall. She can survive against Ursula, then the next turn she kills Ursula, Olivia dances for her, then she kills the ninja. Olwen repositions Olivia so she doesn't die, then on enemy turn the sword cavalry will attack her but she should still be alive. Palla also takes a hit from the 2nd ninja but she will be fine. Next turn everyone gets mopped up, since Palla can 1v1 the axe knight easily.
The big thing is having a unit that can survive the first 2 turns and kill Ursula without dying. In my first few tries I had Camellia out front but the sword cavalry will kill her on the 2nd turn if she goes after Ursula. After using Hinoka instead, it gets pretty simple since Ursula being a mounted mage that kills other mounted mages makes it hard to play around.
The big thing is having a unit that can survive the first 2 turns and kill Ursula without dying. In my first few tries I had Camellia out front but the sword cavalry will kill her on the 2nd turn if she goes after Ursula. After using Hinoka instead, it gets pretty simple since Ursula being a mounted mage that kills other mounted mages makes it hard to play around.
I managed to beat 4* Ursula with 3* FRobin, 5* Lilina, 4* Olivia, and 4* Frederick. FRobin killed Ursula on the first turn, Lilina ORKO'd the armored guy, Frederick tanked/killed the ninjas, and Olivia/Lilina/Frederick tag-teamed the red cavalry guy.
Both Olivia and FRobin finished with 1 hp.
Both Olivia and FRobin finished with 1 hp.
Sushen
Member
After $52, I've got HP-/Spd+ Lucina again. Now, Acura and eventual Ike are two remaining heroes that I want.
Not the same roles. Sharena is a support with buffs while Ursula kills stuff. Pick which one you want more.
Sushen
Member
This post caused me to spend $54 to look for another Lucina with a better stats. A crazy game this is or rather I am.
At least I'm done with red until Ike shows up. Off to Blue and some green later.
Reinhardt is fucking scary. He has the longest range of any Brave weapon user with a decent attack stat so he can just charge up to you from halfway across the map and delete anyone without good resist. He's a monster in defense arena matches. I'm just glad not many people has woken up to him yet.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Shhhhhhhh
I actually uninstalled this in disgust a week and half ago but I've since come crawling back. Between the Princess and Fighting Ursula banners, I've blown about 100 orbs and got poorly-natured 5* Lucina, Eirika, Camilla, Nino, and 4* Nowi, Sakura, Gwendolyn.
I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth, but should I keep rolling for Effie/Hector? The lack of a self-sufficient armored is taking away a lot of options on Lunatic maps but I'd rather save my last 100 or so orbs for a proper Tellius banner.
After watching some videos, spending a few stamina potions, and frantically grinding the training stratums, I beat 4* Ursula with with 5* MRobin (-Speed), 5* Camilla (-Def?), 5* lvl31 Maria, and 4* lvl23 Olivia. Spawned Maria and Camilla next to each other so Camilla has enough Res to negate Ursula's double attack when she's lured in turn 1. Turn 2, Olivia and MRobin 2RKO the Axe Knight, Maria healed Camilla, and Camilla beheads Ursula through the wall her teammates broke on turn 1. Turn 3, dance retreated Camilla back to spawn, Robin moved to the frontline, nuked the top Ninja w/Bonfire, and was healed by Maria. Turn 4, MRobin nuked the bottom Ninja and Maria healed. Turn 5&6, retreated everybody back further into spawn as MRobin 3RKO the Sword Cavalry.
I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth, but should I keep rolling for Effie/Hector? The lack of a self-sufficient armored is taking away a lot of options on Lunatic maps but I'd rather save my last 100 or so orbs for a proper Tellius banner.
After watching some videos, spending a few stamina potions, and frantically grinding the training stratums, I beat 4* Ursula with with 5* MRobin (-Speed), 5* Camilla (-Def?), 5* lvl31 Maria, and 4* lvl23 Olivia. Spawned Maria and Camilla next to each other so Camilla has enough Res to negate Ursula's double attack when she's lured in turn 1. Turn 2, Olivia and MRobin 2RKO the Axe Knight, Maria healed Camilla, and Camilla beheads Ursula through the wall her teammates broke on turn 1. Turn 3, dance retreated Camilla back to spawn, Robin moved to the frontline, nuked the top Ninja w/Bonfire, and was healed by Maria. Turn 4, MRobin nuked the bottom Ninja and Maria healed. Turn 5&6, retreated everybody back further into spawn as MRobin 3RKO the Sword Cavalry.
SenorArdilla
Member
Reinhardt? I don't think he exists.
Hours Left
Member
If Catria has around 33 DEF or more, you should be fine, otherwise the Theives might be too much for her.
Sharena is Infantry so she can't sub in for Subaki.
33 Def? Fuck thats absurd, she has 22 at level 28 right now. I really won't level her up to 40 just for this, specially considering I would have to do it all over again once I promote her to 5*.
I guess 4* Ursula is just impossible for me.
Hours Left
Member
33 DEF is the amount you need to take 0 damage from the Theives. She doesn't need to have exactly that much, but the closer she is the better. (The reason why Subaki is used is due to his high DEF.)
What star rank is your Catria? If she's 5*, neautral DEF caps at 29, and +DEF is 32. Either should be enough if you have a Healer. At 4*, she'd probably need +DEF or a lot of babysitting.
My Catria is 4*. I just rewatched the video and the Subaki used is level 40 with 31 Def. I definitely can't mimic that with my Catria without committing in maxing her, which would be a colossal waste of energy and time at 4*. Fuck this challenge.
toastyToast
Member
brb gonna grind my paycheck for Reinhardt
Catria is good thou
Hours Left
Member
If she's +DEF you might be able to do it still. She has higher attack than Subaki so the Red Cavalier will die faster.
These low ranking challenges will always require some form of investment, but it's not like there's much else to do right now.
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