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[Branduil]

Hell, this year's popular "Hillbilly Elegy" fits.

People shouting that most of those folks are racist either haven't gone to rural areas or haven't lived in these areas for long to see that most folks are trying to get by and can't.

The reason these people are suffering is because they're so racist that they keep voting for people who screw them over just because they hurt minorities even more.

 

[Ogodei]

Pennsylvania's not beyond hope, we're still the only state that flipped the governor's mansion from red to blue in 2014. Democrats here were perhaps more discouraged by Clinton (her victory in the primary being down to how late PA's primary is).

Michigan's probably gone.

 

[GameAddict411]

Oregon is next. Oregon is getting more and more red each election cycle.

That's impossible, Eugene and Portland alone will make sure that Oregon will stay democratic. In fact democrats dominated the local elections this time too.

 

[DorkLord54]

Pennsylvania's not beyond hope, we're still the only state that flipped the governor's mansion from red to blue in 2014. Democrats here were perhaps more discouraged by Clinton (her victory in the primary being down to how late PA's primary is).

Michigan's probably gone.

I mean, a lot of its university students move to Chicago, and even parents of working-class households tell their kids to get the fuck out of the state as soon as they can, so it's not surprising the more conservative elements remain.

That's impossible, Eugene and Portland alone will make sure that Oregon will stay democratic. In fact democrats dominated the local elections this time too.

Yeah, don't get the pessimism about Oregon. State's definitely trending blue along with the rest of the West Coast.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Pennsylvania's not beyond hope, we're still the only state that flipped the governor's mansion from red to blue in 2014. Democrats here were perhaps more discouraged by Clinton (her victory in the primary being down to how late PA's primary is).

Michigan's probably gone.

Michigan was lost by like 8k votes

We're gonna have to fight for the Rust Belt but it's not like it's gone permanently.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I haven't read the whole thing, but they're only using Gallup's data up to 2015? So what if 2016 data tells a completely different story?

If you look at Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, you have negatives for 2015 (using Huff posts averages)

June 2015
Ohio: -9.5
Michigan: -1.7
Pennsylvania: -10.4
North Carolina: -8.2
Wisconsin: +0.8 (August 2015)

All similar to Gallup's dismal marks. But when you look at this year:

October 2016
Ohio: +1
Michigan: +3.7 (November 2016)
Pennsylvania: +5
North Carolina: +2
Wisconsin: +8.3

Obama was in the positive territory near the election. These numbers wouldn't suggest that Democrats were losing those states (if we're basing it off of Obama's job approval)

BTW, here's the link I used (I just changed the name of the state in the link to get the different state polls)

Typically outgoing incumbents see their approval ratings rise because they're outgoing - it's not worth the bother of hating Obama if he's leaving shortly. I think most models that look at incumbents' successors lag their approval ratings because of this.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

A lot of folks are seeing their industries die, and not being willing or able to move, their way of life is just vanishing. The GOP puts the blame on the democrats via trade agreements or regulations or such, and the democrats aren't fighting that by pushing that's the GOP's backers actually doing the automation or outsourcing.

All trump had to do is vaguely promise to big their jobs back somehow, and many were willing to give him a shot. The dems just didn't seem to really call him out on this, instead focusing on her personal behavior.

Is there a solution to the rust belt? Dunno, a lot of academics debating that in a lot of places.

 

[killer rin]

Eh, they'll swap parties again when they realize that Trump and by extension the Republicans can't bring back the jobs they promised. In the meantime, they just have to face the hard truth that Human Manufacturing work just can't survive in a modern day first world country without massive subsidies

 

[alexthekid]

The reason these people are suffering is because they're so racist that they keep voting for people who screw them over just because they hurt minorities even more.

So the reason that life is so depressing in these former steady blue states is that they keep voting for people that screw them over? Since they just turned red, who screwed then over and who should they have been voting for during the decline (probably the last 30 years).

Brilliant analysis. The Queen surely would have turned the rust belt around.

 

[Foffy]

Robert Reich is right to call Trump 35 years in the making.

Neoliberal policies and rural America being left behind with the way the world (Capitalism) has changed is only feeding this change.

This is why those for Trump want to go back to a world that was, instead of trying to work within a framework of a what that is. This is a crucial, yet dangerous distinction to emphasize.

 

[Rentahamster]

Hindsight is a funny thing, no liberal narrative pre-election made the Rust Belt out to be as pivotal as it ended up being. Of course though, everyone likes to act like they have Nate Silver levels of foresight now that the data has been made into history.

There was. But no one listened to us. That's okay though.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Robert Reich is right to call Trump 35 years in the making.

Neoliberal policies and rural America being left behind with the way the world (Capitalism) has changed is only feeding this change.

This is why those for Trump want to go back to a world that was, instead of trying to work within a framework of a what that is. This is a crucial, yet dangerous distinction to emphasize.

The bigger problem, and the one that Cornell West already observed, is that since neoliberalism is indelibly tied to establishment politics, when people vote for the populist candidates they are also getting racism and sexism and all the other nasty things that come with nativism and populism.

In short, neoliberalism is in fact speeding the world along towards a return to fascism and maybe it's time to do something about that. I mean so far we've had Brexit and Trump, maybe it will be too hard to unseat Angela Merkel in Germany but the French better watch out because Marine Le Pen is coming for them next.

 

[Foffy]

The bigger problem, and the one that Cornell West already observed, is that since neoliberalism is indelibly tied to establishment politics, when people vote for the populist candidates they are also getting racism and sexism and all the other nasty things that come with nativism and populism.

In short, neoliberalism is in fact speeding the world along towards a return to fascism and maybe it's time to do something about that. I mean so far we've had Brexit and Trump, maybe it will be too hard to unseat Angela Merkel in Germany but the French better watch out because Marine Le Pen is coming for them next.

Mark Blyth has a video called Global Trumpism that almost perfectly explains this situation, and links it to the rise of neonationalism found with Le Pen and Brexit.

It all really goes back to the point West, Reich, Blyth, you, and I all perhaps realize: neoliberal policies assumed to be the standard have been insolvent for many, many people, and in their failing comes a vacuum that claims change yet is only fuel to chaos, like trying to pour oxygen into a burning house to help its trapped inhabitants breathe. It only produces an accelerant effect by having the flames burn more profoundly.

We will see this as social policies for the wellbeing of the public are almost entirely abandoned for the typical short-term gains of a few, which is to say America's greatest world failing getting degrees worse. For the people that voted for him, their desperation and clouded vision will be put to a test, but it's a test that their delusion is getting the better of them. Look at how people actually, somehow, consider the Carrier deal an objectively good thing, ignoring even concerns from those directly involved that automation is still in a genuine pipeline. Job creators was the myth and excuse used to justify ills brought up by the public, especially when OWS tapped into the pulse of culture, and I can absolutely see a new myth of job "maintainers" existing, that we somehow need and ought to have deregulation to keep the "dignity" of these supposed America-possessed jobs sustainable in an entirely ephemeral framework because of changes, one of which Reich has alluded to constantly is the one of technological decoupling. If you want to make that angle, that started as early as the 1970s, almost a whole decade earlier than when people argue the rise of neoliberal policies found via Reagan and Thatcher.

The only thing I can see of this is that it's very hard to play the atypical Republican blame game. No evil black president, no democrat power system. Can't even blame the minorities, for a machine is not a minority. Can their 20th century failure of values and ideas really continue to hold in the 21st century when their cultural boogeymen are almost nonexistent in the current climate? You can only peddle shadows until people put a light on it.