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[GregLombardi]

Another devastating Euro run for Miami. Right front quadrant of cane slams into the city.

Worst model I've seen for Miami yet. Get the fuck out of that city.

Also - the later the model goes it appears to ride up Florida. All of Florida is hit badly in this model.

Also double edit, for those not aware: the right front quadrant of a hurricane is the absolute worst part of the cane as it comes ashore. It pushes water from right to left onshore, and also tends to have the worst winds. You don't want to be in the RFQ.

Triple edit: also, another question that comes into my mind is - why so many divergences on this? Will the Euro actually take the cane west into the gulf of mexico, threatening the panhandle instead?

What a terrible place to be 2-3 days before the storm, in terms of forecasting.

 

[SOLDIER]

Miami Dade resident here. We've got shutters up on our house, grandparent's house (next door) and additional rental properties. Looks like we're set on hunkering down and letting the storm pass. Our houses took Andrew with virtually no damage, and that was with half the shutters we had now.

But as I just discussed with my sister, I'm thinking I should come up with an emergency escape just in case. I'm not sure what the odds are that the hurricane will weaken or curve away enough that it won't be a big deal, but I much prefer the option of not risking my life.

So if anyone could offer pointers on where I should consider driving to, when would be the absolute latest time I could do so, etc, I'd appreciate it.

 

[Crispy75]

Older things being built better is a myth.

Yep.

True for some things, like machine tools. But for buildings what happens is the crap stuff gets demolished over time, leaving the good stuff standing.

"Those Victorians sure built sturdy homes huh? Not like the flimsy stuff around these days."

Actually they built loads of flimsy crap too; it just didn't last.

 

[zulux21]

Miami Dade resident here. We've got shutters up on our house, grandparent's house (next door) and additional rental properties. Looks like we're set on hunkering down and letting the storm pass. Our houses took Andrew with virtually no damage, and that was with half the shutters we had now.

But as I just discussed with my sister, I'm thinking I should come up with an emergency escape just in case. I'm not sure what the odds are that the hurricane will weaken or curve away enough that it won't be a big deal, but I much prefer the option of not risking my life.

So if anyone could offer pointers on where I should consider driving to, when would be the absolute latest time I could do so, etc, I'd appreciate it.

I would imagine if you don't leave really soon you shouldn't leave at all (from the hurricane thread)

Straight up the middle of Florida. Still a
Cat 2/3 hurricane here inland over northern Florida. Really bad.

the current projections are basically no where in florida is safe. That is on monday. and traffic is only going to continue to get worse from here on out.

 

[Gai Murakumo]

Stay safe Florida and South States GAF. I hope it reduces in magnitude before it reaches you guys.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Stay safe Florida GAF. I'll be praying for you guys the same way you guys prayed for me during Harvey's rampage in Texas. Wish you guys all the best!

 

[Zen Aku]

So what's the prediction looking like for Orlando?

 

[fluffydelusions]

Nuclear plants in Hurricane Irma's path are shutting down

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/07/inv...n=Feed:+rss/money_markets+(CNNMoney:+Markets)

 

[GoldenEye 007]

So what's the prediction looking like for Orlando?

I mean, if Euro comes to pass, you're looking at Category 2/3 conditions.

 

[SOLDIER]

I would imagine if you don't leave really soon you shouldn't leave at all (from the hurricane thread)



the current projections are basically no where in florida is safe. That is on monday. and traffic is only going to continue to get worse from here on out.

We were talking about Atlanta GA briefly.

Is there a possibility that traffic would die down some on Friday or Saturday, or would the opposite be more likely?

Our houses are super sturdy and were built in 1990, so I should be a little more rational about it. However, I would rather not tempt fate if this still ends up being a stronger-than-Andrew storm by the time it hits us.

 

[Zen Aku]

I mean, if Euro comes to pass, you're looking at Category 2/3 conditions.

That's good right? I mean a hell of a lot better than a Cat 4/5.

 

[Irminsul]

I posted this already in the other thread, but I think cross-posting does nothing but help people, so I hope it's okay:

GIF of the Euro run in three-hour steps:

Note that even though the projected pressure is higher, the speed of wind gusts at landfall is basically unchanged in comparison to the 0z model:

EDIT: 100mph (160 km/h) winds basically from coast to coast:

 

[Wag]

My parents are so fucking stubborn. They live not too far from the evacuation zone in Delray Beach and they absolutely refuse to leave, even go to a shelter. Unless someone removes them physically it's not going to happen.

We'll see what happens when their power is out for a few weeks.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

That's good right? I mean a hell of a lot better than a Cat 4/5.

3 is still a major hurricane. It's better than 4/5, but still very bad. That could come down to how well most people prepared. If a lot of people inland kind of shrugged things off thinking it would stay off the coast, they could be in for a rude awakening.

 

[Snaku]

We were talking about Atlanta GA briefly.

Is there a possibility that traffic would die down some on Friday or Saturday, or would the opposite be more likely?

Our houses are super sturdy and were built in 1990, so I should be a little more rational about it. However, I would rather not tempt fate if this still ends up being a stronger-than-Andrew storm by the time it hits us.

Homestead and Florida City got the worst from Andrew. This thing looks like it's gonna hit Miami dead on. Just because your house survived Andrew doesn't mean it'll get through Irma. I would get out if I still lived down there, and I wouldn't wait.

 

[SOLDIER]

Homestead and Florida City got the worst from Andrew. This thing looks like it's gonna hit Miami dead on. Just because your house survived Andrew doesn't mean it'll get through Irma. I would get out if I still lived down there, and I wouldn't wait.

Same question applies then: where should I consider going, and what would be the best path to take?

 

[zulux21]

We were talking about Atlanta GA briefly.

Is there a possibility that traffic would die down some on Friday or Saturday, or would the opposite be more likely?

Our houses are super sturdy and were built in 1990, so I should be a little more rational about it. However, I would rather not tempt fate if this still ends up being a stronger-than-Andrew storm by the time it hits us.

odds are traffic will just get worse over friday and saturday and the odds people will run out of gas and block the roads also increases.

from weather.com

you really don't want to be in a car anywhere in florida if that is accurate. I am not an expert on these things in any means, but I would guess that if you can't get out by tonight, just hunker down as it would likely be safer than trying to drive when everyone is trying to flee friday and saturday.

Same question applies then: where should I consider going, and what would be the best path to take?

I mean, I am asking in the other thread if I am reading things right and atlanta could actually be hit by something still considered a hurricane, but even if it was it would likely only be a cat 1 or so, thus atlanta is likely far enough away to be safe.

in general north for a while and west seems to be your best bet from the forecasts I am seeing.

 

[Zen Aku]

Same question applies then: where should I consider going, and what would be the best path to take?

I think going north, stay away from the coast and drive as far up north as you can. If you can drive all the way to Georgia, head west a bit. It will be much better than staying in Miami.

 

[FyreWulff]

My parents are so fucking stubborn. They live not too far from the evacuation zone in Delray Beach and they absolutely refuse to leave, even go to a shelter. Unless someone removes them physically it's not going to happen.

We'll see what happens when their power is out for a few weeks.

Tell them to make it easier for you to have them identified by writing their social security numbers on their arms

 

[Snaku]

Same question applies then: where should I consider going, and what would be the best path to take?

North as far as you can, most of my family that I have down there are going to Atlanta. Not in Florida anymore so I don't know what the road situation is like down there right now.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Estimated max winds speeds from the most recent euro

 

[Dark_3nergy]

I posted this already in the other thread, but I think cross-posting does nothing but help people, so I hope it's okay:

GIF of the Euro run in three-hour steps:



Note that even though the projected pressure is higher, the speed of wind gusts at landfall is basically unchanged in comparison to the 0z model:



EDIT: 100mph (160 km/h) winds basically from coast to coast:

Christ, it's basically going over my folks place.

 

[wwm0nkey]

odds are traffic will just get worse over friday and saturday and the odds people will run out of gas and block the roads also increases.

from weather.com


you really don't want to be in a car anywhere in florida if that is accurate. I am not an expert on these things in any means, but I would guess that if you can't get out by tonight, just hunker down as it would likely be safer than trying to drive when everyone is trying to flee friday and saturday.



I mean, I am asking in the other thread if I am reading things right and atlanta could actually be hit by something still considered a hurricane, but even if it was it would likely only be a cat 1 or so, thus atlanta is likely far enough away to be safe.

in general north for a while and west seems to be your best bet from the forecasts I am seeing.

If that thing keeps up 60 when it hit's Ohio it will probably cost us another $500 million like Ike did

 

[Wag]

Tell them to make it easier for you to have them identified by writing their social security numbers on their arms

My parents are fatalists. My dad is 89 and can barely walk. At this point they're like, "whatever happens, happens".

Elderly parents- I can't force them to leave and even if the evacuation was "mandatory" they wouldn't leave anyways.

At best they'll lose the enclosed porch (aluminum roof) and power. Hopefully the house is still there at the end of all this.

 

[Gordon Shumway]

Christ, it's basically going over my folks place.

Yeah..just got a little sick..

 

[Dinokill]

So, not even Sarasota is safe anymore?

 

[Kusagari]

So, not even Sarasota is safe anymore?

Absolutely zero parts of Florida are safe.

 

[Krakatoa]

So, not even Sarasota is safe anymore?

Its always been a waiting game. I'm from Sarasota.

 

[Wag]

My parents really need someone to at least secure their house for them. I don't even know who to ask- I don't know anyone down there.

 

[Dinokill]

Absolutely zero parts of Florida are safe.

Holy shit. I might die this weekend.

 

[BattleMonkey]

If you don't have access to extra fuel, don't try leaving the state or going too crazy far, and of course don't just go without a place to stay or plan, lot of hotels up north are filling up fast as well as local hotels.

If you need a place to go, look up your local hurricane shelter and register to stay there, don't get caught being stuck with no gas on the highway

 

[Dark_3nergy]

If that thing keeps up 60 when it hit's Ohio it will probably cost us another $500 million like Ike did

I was in Ohio when Ike hit. 75 mph acorns hurt as did trying to walk normally.

 

[J_Viper]

Damn, the Greyhound my dad and brother were supposed to be in has been delayed by at least three hours

I really hope it comes

 

[JPKellams]

A category 3/4 riding up the center of Florida with the eyewall hitting both coasts is SCARY.

 

[HeartlessNobody213]

Not liking this latest euro track. Damn

 

[Valkyr Junkie]

Estimated max winds speeds from the most recent euro

What's the logic with using certain colors twice in the scale?

 

[Vestal]

That euro model initial impact is probably best case for Florida, as it hits the Everglades... But a category 3/4 riding up the center of Florida with the eyewall hitting both coasts is SCARY.

NE Quadrant eyewall smashing Homestead and Miami is not best case.

 

[JPKellams]

NE Quadrant eyewall smashing Homestead and Miami is not best case.

Yeah, I take that back.

 

[DOWN]

Holy shit. I might die this weekend.

Bruh stop. It’s not a twister going through stick houses. There’s ways to prepare, get shelter, or even safely evacuate if needed.

 

[Gordon Shumway]

My parents really need someone to at least secure their house for them. I don't even know who to ask- I don't know anyone down there.

Have you still not contacted their local police or anything to see if they can assist? There must be someone available to help the very elderly in these situations..it's Florida, after all. Start checking online, dude..and good luck to you..

 

[Wag]

Someone want to go board up my parents windows for me? Please? Shit. This sucks. I can't do anything to help them.

 

[bachikarn]

Also remember none of these models are 100%. The actual hurricane can wobble quite significantly. This could be good (it could wobble further off the coast) or could be worse for some people as it shifts the storm closer to them.

 

[Kusagari]

Also remember none of these models are 100%. The actual hurricane can wobble quite significantly. This could be good (it could wobble further off the coast) or could be worse for some people as it shifts the storm closer to them.

Exactly. So everyone in the state needs to prepare. With the size of the thing, one wobble can put you in the worst of it.

 

[Z3M0G]

What a terrifying situation for those further South... nowhere to go but North to get away... ahead of its direct path... literally being chased by the thing... probably only a few major highways to use...

 

[DOWN]

Also remember none of these models are 100%. The actual hurricane can wobble quite significantly. This could be good (it could wobble further off the coast) or could be worse for some people as it shifts the storm closer to them.

Hurricane Floyd was gonna be a wild 4/5 and then unexpectedly turned so sharp it missed Florida entirely

 

[GregLombardi]

Also remember none of these models are 100%. The actual hurricane can wobble quite significantly. This could be good (it could wobble further off the coast) or could be worse for some people as it shifts the storm closer to them.

This is true.

The problem with this, is that there is really not a lot of time left to prepare. By Friday night / Sat morning, there will be tropical storm force winds over much of FLorida I believe. As such, decisions and actions have to be made now, even if they aren't necessary.

 

[darkside31337]

Estimated max winds speeds from the most recent euro

I have no idea how to read this graph because it uses the same colors twice...

either way not great

 

[fluffydelusions]

image 1: Sunday morning -
image 2: Sunday afternoon-evening
image 3: Sunday night

Blues = 138mph+
Greens/Yellows = 120-135mph
Reds/Oranges = 110-120mph

 

[DOWN]

Yeah for anyone wondering, if you are in a coastal south area, today is the time to make your preparation decisions

 

[CitizenVectron]

I have no idea how to read this graph because it uses the same colors twice...

either way not great

Yeah that's a really poor graph.