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[DOWN]

Not all Hurricanes are created equal. A direct hit from Irma is going to be the worst natural disaster Florida has seen in 80 years.

Direct hit will be in lower Florida if anything, and while this one is definitely stronger... it’s just not the craziest thing to me when you’ve already been through storms that were 80% or more as powerful before. It’s not a crazy jump to me...

And Florida now is a little different from Florida pre-Andrew. My building will definitely be fine.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Saw this on reddit. Wish more weatherman were like this guy. Informative, educational, and to the point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwW6ZWaQ4bs&feature=youtu.be

 

[Traumnovelle]

How safe is it to be in Delray Beach (not on the coast)? I heard the eye might be there?

 

[Captainbojanglesiii]

Just heard Pinellas county is ordering "zone A" evacuated tomorrow morning. I get better safe than sorry, but now that they're almost out of the cone and highways clogged for miles was rhis smart?

No. Probably not

My parents gotta drive up here tonight now

 

[Krakatoa]

Saw this on reddit. Wish more weatherman were like this guy. Informative, educational, and to the point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwW6ZWaQ4bs&feature=youtu.be

thanks very informative.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

In north GA seeing long streams of utility trucks and tree removal companies heading south on 75.

 

[TheCochese]

903? Holy shit.

Yeah, family lives in Savannah. I have a feeling I'll be either heading there tomorrow to board shit up or there on Wednesday to clean shit up.

Or both.

 

[JoeBoy101]

Yeah, NC is starting to get in on the stockpiling. Stores are starting to get hammered, and those forecasts keep pushing it east and north for a Charleston to OBX hit.

 

[AlphaSnake]

Saw this on reddit. Wish more weatherman were like this guy. Informative, educational, and to the point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwW6ZWaQ4bs&feature=youtu.be

Wow, that was extremely informative. It also has put me a little bit more at ease. I'm feeling a little optimistic now, it looks like Central FL will be spared from the worst, just like Matthew last year. But it looks like it will head into the Carolinas, as will Jose.

 

[Lkr]

Wow, that was extremely informative. It also has put me a little bit more at ease. I'm feeling a little optimistic now, it looks like Central FL will be spared from the worst, just like Matthew last year. But it looks like it will head into the Carolinas, as will Jose.

Don't forget that the forecast will change 10 times before the end of the day

Direct hit will be in lower Florida if anything, and while this one is definitely stronger... it’s just not the craziest thing to me when you’ve already been through storms that were 80% or more as powerful before. It’s not a crazy jump to me...

And Florida now is a little different from Florida pre-Andrew. My building will definitely be fine.

You're right. So much fear mongering from people that don't live in Florida and understand how these things work. Gonna have to travel over miles and miles of land and weaken if the eye hits Orlando (if it even does).
If you live in the south and near the coast: GTFO
In Orlando: you'll be fine if your home isn't 20 years old or you don't live in a manufactured home

Weather channel is reporting live from a publix in Hollywood. Confirmed for being gaf members?

 

[TheCochese]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...frzn&runtime=2017090712&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=200

Those models have it making a second landfall at Savannah.

Guess I should get my tools ready for cleanup and repair.

 

[witness]

You're right. So much fear mongering from people that don't live in Florida and understand how these things work. Gonna have to travel over miles and miles of land and weaken if the eye hits Orlando (if it even does).
If you live in the south and near the coast: GTFO
In Orlando: you'll be fine if your home isn't 20 years old or you don't live in a manufactured home

Mine is 30 years old but has a brand new roof (2016) and is made out of a mixture of brick, wood, and cinder block. Should I worry? Anything I should inspect or specific precautions I should take?

 

[Rixxan]

My friend left west broward and took turnpike - for to Orlando in about 4.5 hours? He left this morning at around 7

That doesn't align with some of the comments in this thread though - makes it seem like you'll die on the road in here

Not sure - think I'm gonna take 27

 

[Judge Magister Zexion]

My house was made in 99' so I think I'm good for riding it out, though I might just go to my dad's apartment that's 3 minutes away since he's in the 3rd floor and it's brand new.

 

[Linkura]

Another college buddy and her family (2 young ones including a newborn) live in Savannah. They've already posted that they have a flight up to Ohio to stay with family.

Getting fucking pissed at my PSL family. They haven't posted dick and the forecast continues to show them getting directly hit.

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Another college buddy and her family (2 young ones including a newborn) live in Savannah. They've already posted that they have a flight up to Ohio to stay with family.

Getting fucking pissed at my PSL family. They haven't posted dick and the forecast continues to show them getting directly hit.

Link to where PSL is getting hit please

 

[Gordon Shumway]

Neighbor just texted me. Took him 9 hours to get from Miami to Orlando on I-95 N this morning. If anyone plans on evacuating the city I suggest leaving by tonight at the latest.

Ain't that normally a fucking 3 hour drive?

 

[Sectorseven]

Once it's over land, does it become easier to predict the path and how much it will weaken?

 

[Karkador]

Ain't that normally a fucking 3 hour drive?

3 and some change, but yeah, crazy

 

[spawnsniper]

fuck man stay safe everyone.

I volunteered through my job to go help for what hurricane Harvey took out. I'll probably once again volunteer for this one as well once it clears out.

 

[BobNewbert31]

Link to where PSL is getting hit please

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154730.shtml?gm_track#contents

You'll have to zoom in to find PSL.

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

A significant amount of Georgia east of I95 was just put under a mandatory evacuation order.

Map

 

[Linkura]

Link to where PSL is getting hit please

Just look at the NHC's latest cone. If it follows the current projections, it's right in the path of the eye.

Fakeedit: Thanks for posting, Bob. I'm on mobile so it's a dick for me to copy/paste.

 

[Sectorseven]

My house was made in 99' so I think I'm good for riding it out, though I might just go to my dad's apartment that's 3 minutes away since he's in the 3rd floor and it's brand new.

Don't forget that the forecast will change 10 times before the end of the day

You're right. So much fear mongering from people that don't live in Florida and understand how these things work. Gonna have to travel over miles and miles of land and weaken if the eye hits Orlando (if it even does).
If you live in the south and near the coast: GTFO
In Orlando: you'll be fine if your home isn't 20 years old or you don't live in a manufactured home

Weather channel is reporting live from a publix in Hollywood. Confirmed for being gaf members?

Why is newer construction more desirable during a storm? I was always under the impression older homes were built more solid / with better craftsmanship.

 

[maniac-kun]

The simulation here:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/...ographic=-88.37,31.11,1156/loc=-70.078,20.099

shows it will hit Florida on Saturday 9-11 am and move towards the land. You can select the next steps by clicking on earth and then on the brackets.

If you select height -> 250 you see the jetstream winds that "carry" the storm to a direction.

 

[Lkr]

Mine is 30 years old but has a brand new roof (2016) and is made out of a mixture of brick, wood, and cinder block. Should I worry? Anything I should inspect or specific precautions I should take?

Your roof should probably be fine, board up your windows and pray if you're staying. It's really all any of us can do tbh. Current track shows it staying off coast as a cat 3 at its closest approach to Orlando. 30 years old puts you at pre-Andrew though so I'm not sure how safe it is

 

[Irminsul]

The simulation here:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/...ographic=-88.37,31.11,1156/loc=-70.078,20.099

shows it will hit Florida on Saturday 9-11 am and move towards the land. You can select the next steps by clicking on earth and then on the brackets.

That simulation uses GFS data, by the way. Not that this makes it worse, just as a FYI.

 

[Vyrance]

I'm in Ft. Pierce myself. Finished boarding up my windows. If it directly hits I'll be staying at my parents house in town. Will certainly be interesting. Hopefully it doesn't crash my two palm trees into my house. The huge oak should be fine.

 

[Lkr]

Why is newer construction more desirable during a storm? I was always under the impression older homes were built more solid / with better craftsmanship.

After every devastating storm, new housing codes are put in place to better withstand storms. If your home was built before 1992, it does not meet building codes put in place after hurricane Andrew destroyed Miami. Homes rebuilt or built in general after Hurricane Charley in 04 have to be built to a more strict code. Then there is also the predicament where a lot of homes in Florida are manufactured homes or trailers. These will not withstand a hurricane and people living in those need to get out to a sturdier structure.

Older things being built better is a myth.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Ain't that normally a fucking 3 hour drive?

Miami to Orlando is about 4 and half to 5 hr drive depending where in Miami. It's at least 4 from Broward, drive it almost monthly here.

 

[Karkador]

Why is newer construction more desirable during a storm? I was always under the impression older homes were built more solid / with better craftsmanship.

Not necessarily. I think the question is about certain building methods and technologies being standardized.

After Andrew in 1992, the building codes became more strict, and building 'hurricane proof' homes was a priority. Certain things like attachments for hurricane shutters (rather than nailing plywood to your house) became a lot more common. Also, building homes that don't allow a proper airflow through them. A lot of issues with Andrew, IIRC, were homes that literally bursted apart, because the winds could get in but not out.

It doesn't mean an older home can't withstand a hurricane (and it's possible to retrofit some of these things), but some of these design decisions are a little more about proper engineering than materials/craftsmanship.

 

[Karkador]

Then there is also the predicament where a lot of homes in Florida are manufactured homes or trailers.

This, too. One of those Andrew aftermath photos getting circulated these days, of a totally flattened neighborhood, appears to be one of these neighborhoods.

 

[GregLombardi]

The latest IR images of the storm indicate to me a potential period of intensification. Much more symmetry in cloud tops starting to develop on all sides.

 

[JimJamJones]

Coral Springs area here. Been putting up shutters all around the neighborhood today. It's 93 out and everyone around here is either in line for gas or water or raiding Publix for food. Saw a guy drag another guy out of his car and beat him up because he couldn't get into the gas line soon enough. Haven't seen it this crazy since Wilma.

 

[Kusagari]

This, too. One of those Andrew aftermath photos getting circulated these days, of a totally flattened neighborhood, appears to be one of these neighborhoods.

Anyone living in a mobile home just needs to expect to come back to nothing.

Sad, but it's the truth.

 

[Alligatorjandro]

What are the chances this stays a 5 all the way up the Florida coast?

 

[BlazinSkatinAxel]

And Florida now is a little different from Florida pre-Andrew. My building will definitely be fine.

DOWN

 

[Spinluck]

My friend left west broward and took turnpike - for to Orlando in about 4.5 hours? He left this morning at around 7

That doesn't align with some of the comments in this thread though - makes it seem like you'll die on the road in here

Not sure - think I'm gonna take 27

Broward to Orlando is normally a 3 hour drive.

 

[MechDX]

What are the chances this stays a 5 all the way up the Florida coast?

If is primarily over land very doubtful. Will still be dangerous but not a 5

 

[pulsemyne]

903? Holy shit.

Yeah, family lives in Savannah. I have a feeling I'll be either heading there tomorrow to board shit up or there on Wednesday to clean shit up.

Or both.

Don't read too much into the 903 from GFS. They have constantly overcocked the pressure. It's still going to be a solid cat 4 when it hits shore though. Do not take this storm lightly.

 

[maniac-kun]

What are the chances this stays a 5 all the way up the Florida coast?

The water at the sea is about 1-2 °C warmer than normal and around 30°C so its not weakening much. Its pretty good conditions for a hurrican to exist in.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#SST_anom

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-79.91,30.51,1156/loc=-78.818,28.242

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-79.91,30.51,1156/loc=-78.818,28.242

 

[Irminsul]

What are the chances this stays a 5 all the way up the Florida coast?

Well, even the latest Euro model, which had Irma basically stay off land until it directly hits Miami, had wind gusts just reaching Cat 5, which means sustained winds (and thus, Irma itself) are a strong Cat 4.

So it's possible. How probable it is is too early to tell. The new Euro model should be around in about an hour, so let's see if that changes anything.

 

[TyrantII]

Not necessarily. I think the question is about certain building methods and technologies being standardized.

After Andrew in 1992, the building codes became more strict, and building 'hurricane proof' homes was a priority. Certain things like attachments for hurricane shutters (rather than nailing plywood to your house) became a lot more common. Also, building homes that don't allow a proper airflow through them. A lot of issues with Andrew, IIRC, were homes that literally bursted apart, because the winds could get in but not out.

It doesn't mean an older home can't withstand a hurricane (and it's possible to retrofit some of these things), but some of these design decisions are a little more about proper engineering than materials/craftsmanship.

Those codes are for category 3 winds. Not a 190MPH category 5 hurricane.

Just something to keep in mind. If this storm doesn't degrade, it'll be something no one has seen in modern times.

People should prepare for the worst. Better safe than sorry

 

[BattleMonkey]

Not necessarily. I think the question is about certain building methods and technologies being standardized.

After Andrew in 1992, the building codes became more strict, and building 'hurricane proof' homes was a priority. Certain things like attachments for hurricane shutters (rather than nailing plywood to your house) became a lot more common. Also, building homes that don't allow a proper airflow through them. A lot of issues with Andrew, IIRC, were homes that literally bursted apart, because the winds could get in but not out.

It doesn't mean an older home can't withstand a hurricane (and it's possible to retrofit some of these things), but some of these design decisions are a little more about proper engineering than materials/craftsmanship.

Yea lot of homes rode through Andrew just fine, I had lot of family that were here for Andrew and outside of mostly exterior damage to stuff, their houses and roofs came out just fine. Lot of the pics of Andrew destruction were in the areas like Homestead where houses were almost all wood plus they got smacked with tornadoes also. Lot more stronger codes are now placed on how roofs have to be built, how doors are placed, window fixtures, plus people have shutters on their homes. Back during Andrew, lot of people didn't have any shutters, it wasn't common, lot of people just boarded up or had no real protection which made things worse as wind got into their homes and would blow off roofs like a scoop. Shutters are almost standard on any new home you buy in the past decade.

Roofs are still the biggest weakness, but overall most newer homes are far better build nowadays and if you are well in land, you got much better chances.

 

[Rebel Leader]

PSA

if you have a sun pass there's an express lane you can use on your way to Atlanta George on i75

 

[Rixxan]

Broward to Orlando is normally a 3 hour drive.

Still, point is it doesn't seem that bad all things considered

 

[kinggroin]

Ha! I literally was about to post that!


The peachpass express lane.


If you have a sunpass, TAKE IT

 

[Vestal]

PSA

if you have a sun pass there's an express lane you can use on your way to Atlanta George on i75

PSA:

All tolls have been cancelled until after the emergency.

EDIT: IN FL.

 

[Spinluck]

My girlfriend's mom took a week off vacation that started on Wednesday to go to Miami.

She still went regardless of how fucking stupid we told her it was to not simply move her vacation around the storm.

 

[DOWN]

My bosses just emailed us to please do whatever we need to be safe and there will be no consequences. They will be closed Monday.