I was looking up the World Cup draw on a whim today, and it got me in the mood to make a crazy and bold prediction. It's not really in my nature to do so, but I don't think anyone is interested in reading a range of probability distributions over expected outcomes, so I figured a more definitive approach was better. so:
England are going to reach the Semi-Finals at the 2014 World Cup (and probably play terrible football all the way there)
My reasoning: first of all I don't think the group stage poses a big challenge. I see a win over Costa Rica, and a 1-1 draw and 1-0 win over the other 2. Hodgson has already shown he can grind out a result against Italy, and that was with the super shitty Euros team. As for Uruguay, yes they have Suarez, but the rest of the team? Cavani doesn't do well for them, whilst the others are all either well past it or players who couldn't cut it in Europe.
Then you get to the 4th round and things are decidedly easier here. Group D contains Colombia (sans Falcao), Ivory Coast, Japan and Greece. It won't be pretty, but 2-1 wins against any of those lot.
So getting to the Quarter finals doesn't really seem much of a challenge to me. Reaching the Semis seems a much taller order, with Spain as likely opponents if England win the group. I'm assuming here that Hodgson will set up with his usual super defensive tactics, but against Spain it will be to their advantage. The Barca cunts who make up the spine of the team, when faced with the defensive stuff they have failed against time and again, suffer a mass breakdown and England nick the win from a set-piece.
So that's the path to the Semis. England's luck probably runs out by that time and they get hammered. That's my bet.
Of course this is all reliant on Hodgson taking a semblance of decent players and not fucking Cleverly and Lampard.