It really depends. Overall yes I think you're right, but technology changes so much over the lifespan of a console that it's hard to predict what the next big thing will be.
MS will be fine. They started the turnaround much earlier than Sony did during the PS3 launch. Quite frankly, i am impressed by the speed of the turnaround. Besides, this is MS we are talking about.
As for the whole console war stuff...its quite simply really. You know the games you want to play, you know the exclusives you are looking forward to, you know the console your friends will be getting. These should guide you on which one to get. Best case scenario, get both systems if you can afford it (that's what I am doing). Both system have games that i am looking forward to, in terms of exclusives. Multiplat goes to the system that performs better in said title ( this will probably be the PS4 for the majority of games).