A ton of things will be different in 4 short years. I made a heavily sourced thread about upcoming tech and projections in 2020 . There is no stopping this (driver less) train
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Fully Autonomous (Level 4) Vehicles on Roads 2020, say multiple industry reps
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Angelus Errare
Banned
I always heard SLC is like a great place to be if you're a software developer of any skill level.
Might have to look into this...
I think the robot cars are more concerned with you.
Pagusas
Elden Member
Very curious what on-demand auto driving services would cost. Like says I want to take one of those for my commute everyday to work (25 miles, about 45 minutes in Dallas traffic)
Right now I pay about $300 for the car payment, $60 - $80 in gas a month, $50 for full coverage insurance and about $300 a year in maintaince.
So this service would have to come in under $500 a month for me to feel it was worth it to get rid of my car.
Right now I pay about $300 for the car payment, $60 - $80 in gas a month, $50 for full coverage insurance and about $300 a year in maintaince.
So this service would have to come in under $500 a month for me to feel it was worth it to get rid of my car.
show me your skeleton
Member
you better hope the laws don't change to take you, the very dangerous human prone to error, off the road.
There could always be the boomerang effect in work. Easier and cheaper access could also mean more consumption, which could lead to more cars on the road.
Pagusas
Elden Member
That will be like trying to legislate guns in the us, cars are just as important culturally to us (city folk don't count)
We obviously don't care how many people it will kill (see alcohol, guns, cigarettes, corn syrup). Lives don't matter.
The insurance industry though will see this as a gold mine oppertunity. Not using a robo car? That will be an extra $300 a month for "human error" insurance
It's not like a switch is going to be flicked in four years.
Anyway, I still think 2020 is optimistic. There are a ton of policy issues etc. to be addressed, never mind the technology itself.
They very likely won't make it illegal, at worst they might make "robo-car only" roads. The insurance costs however will be ridiculous.
EDIT: They might ban it one day, once human drivers become the major source of car accidents, but that won't be for at least another 20-30 years
John Kowalski
Banned
You mean the coder, right? Or the standards associations.
definitely interested in seeing how they deal with winter conditions. Black ice, cornering in bad slush/snow, covered lanes etc.
I don't think it's impossible at all for a computer to deal with it, it's not that hard. I actually believe the biggest problem with winter driving is just that people don't adapt and keep driving the same way they normally do, it's why there's so many accidents on the first snow. In some cases they drive even more recklessly because they get impatient about how reasonable, sane human beings are not going 120 in a blizzard and start passing.
I don't think it's impossible at all for a computer to deal with it, it's not that hard. I actually believe the biggest problem with winter driving is just that people don't adapt and keep driving the same way they normally do, it's why there's so many accidents on the first snow. In some cases they drive even more recklessly because they get impatient about how reasonable, sane human beings are not going 120 in a blizzard and start passing.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
buh im a good driver. muh driving freedoms
sans_pants
avec_pénis
hopefully the government just straight up makes it illegal to drive yourself
There's going to be some societal push back, that's inevitable. One bad accident and things will get interesting.
I do see this as inevitable, it's not like Google Glass, but there will be some serious growing pains.
Like the Ford guy said, autonomous taxis and Ubers and what have you will be first. Then the debate begins.
I do see this as inevitable, it's not like Google Glass, but there will be some serious growing pains.
Like the Ford guy said, autonomous taxis and Ubers and what have you will be first. Then the debate begins.
sans_pants
avec_pénis
Also we are gonna lose a ton of jobs but also no more traffic jams or accidents
Humanity is probably gonna botch this transition
Humanity is probably gonna botch this transition
Do you guys think that autonomous vehicles will lead to an increase in suburban house values? Here in Toronto, people take streetcar + subway to work which can vary between 30-45 minutes (some shorter, some much longer). But if one could just sit in a car, relax with a laptop or read a book, etc., for 45 minutes instead, wouldn't that make a suburban commute that much more desirable?
show me your skeleton
Member
jobs will be the big cause of social pushback, i feel. long haul lorry drivers and things like that. that's a big chunk of the workforce gone.
I feel like they should compromise, at least for the time being. Build autonomous cars capable of driving themselves, but leave the option for people to manually operate them. This would also help with the weather and crappy road issues, you could set the car on autopilot in clear conditions on nice smooth roads, and you can take over controls in bad conditions or on janky roads.
Yeah I -absolutely- think that people will be more willing to spread out when autonomous cars are a thing. Not a -loot- mind you, not until mobile-mini homes are a thing, but absolutely. It's not just that it will be easier getting to the services and experiences that are difficult to find outside of a city core - but it will probably be that these services and experiences will increasingly be mobile and automated, spreading their reach. That P&L burger you love will drive to you.
For $22.47
DrGonzo615
Banned
I love driving but would definitely like an automated car for longer trips (so I can just take a nap or something)
Sad to see how much shit-posting this topic brings about though.
Sad to see how much shit-posting this topic brings about though.
Yeah, it's a big problem in a service economy when a large number of service jobs disappear.
It's a conversation we need to have now before the tech gets here.
Saucycarpdog
Member
Ziltoidia 9
Member
How about self flying drones that job you off at your location? Is that going to be the "next" thing after?
Ironically it's the cost savings that has pushed this along so quickly though I think.
Usually there's a lobby standing in the way of big changes like this, but everyone from car manufacturers to big business stands to gain from this arriving sooner rather than later.
whatsinaname
Member
That's what Global Warming is for.
Yeah, that's why I think this is definitely going to happen.
If we can figure out how to employ everyone there are no losers with this tech. As it is the people who stand to lose won't have enough pull to stop the train(awful pun intended).
crazygambit
Member
Unless it becomes illegal. Which it has to at some point if we want to take full advantage of all the features of autonomous driving.
I can't wait for speed limits to increase and going at 100+ mph at intersections with only inches of clearance, which would be impossible if your slow ass brain is trying to control a vehicle manually on the road.
I can't wait for traffic lights to be a thing of the past, since every car can be fully connected and aware of all the other cars, making them unnecessary. You will see a dramatic improvement in traffic and commute times, but by all means lets forgo that so you can have "fun".
I'm thinking we'll see a major boost to track days, where you'll be able to drive your primitive cars in closed courses to your hearts content.
evilromero
Member
I'm most excited about the overall safety benefit since it will hopefully reduce the number of accident-related deaths, injuries, as well as improve commuting congestion. Possibly mean less time on the road per car, less stress to the driver and numerous other environmental or personal health benefits.
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
and ride a motorcycle.
Human drivers have always been the major source of car accidents
DrGonzo615
Banned
SSShhhhhhhh, dont ask questions, just ride the hype train
Thats great until something goes wrong and slams you into a wall or other car.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
more people alive means less job availability, and all those truck drivers losing their jobs to machines. my god, you are asking for the apocalypse! can't you see!!!
Maybe on the highways, but speeds wouldn't increase much in the cities. You still need to factor in pedestrians and bicyclists. Unless you plan on outlawing bicyclists also. And what happens to all the existing classic cars? They suddenly become lawn ornaments?
Some manufacturers have said that they'll take on liability issues. Like Volvo:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...about-liability-for-selfdriving-car-accidents
I think statistically that will be proven out very quickly. I can see manual driving becoming as socially irresponsible as drunk driving in the years to come.
evilromero
Member
I expect insurance companies to be major proponents of autonomous vehicles as it should greatly reduce the number of claims they'll be liable to payout. And with the added onboard sensory equipment, it'll pretty much guarantee who will be at fault so the human occupant will be 100% liable if they happened to "turn off" the automation, etc. Basically, it'll be much harder to fraud the insurance company when your car is outfitted with enough technology that it can drive itself.
lol. I hope they make slow lanes for people who drive themselves.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
i think insurance companies may not even bother selling individual insurance anymore, and will need to broker deals with manufacturers and transportation companies.
evilromero
Member
This is really my hope. While I can understand the concerns of not being in control, I think the benefits far outweigh them. Hell, I'll take the "less stress" of not worrying about shitty mile-long accidents and sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic. Will do wonders for a large portion of American's heart condition.
Jon Carter
Member
I don't just need to see the receipts for this, I need to have them in my hands and inspect them with a microscope.
evilromero
Member
I imagine if there's still a "manual" driver mode, then we'll still need some amount of personal liability insurance. But I completely agree that we could be seeing an "insurance fee" of sorts built into the cost of the car. I'm curious how manufacturers will address those costs. One time fee at purchase? Or a yearly subscription?
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