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GAF Mafia [Mafia] lOTl Should've Gone for Bagels...

"just jokin guys, i was pretending to act scummy because of reasons!"
what does this statement do to demonstrate its premise? How is a town player supposed to react to this statement? It simply seems like a statement designed to obtain unearned good-will and credit. It acknowledges suspicious behavior while at the same time attempting to excuse said behavior on the basis of nothing.

I said it because, from my perspective, the events of yesterday went a pretty long way in clearing me. I suppose I'm biased in that respect. You could still suspect me if you think Scrafty and I engineered an all-scum Thunderdome scenario, but in that case you're severely overestimating both of our abilities.
 

Swamped

Banned
A lot of us seem quite certain that the override yesterday was a Mafia power, but Town misuses overrides all the time. Even so I'm inclined to think it's a mafia power too, since it was a secret power (we don't know who used it), but I'm just saying we should keep our minds open. The other reason I think it was a Mafia power is because Sorian had soft-claimed, so Mafia may have wanted to get rid of a potential threat.

Now, about Flushy, I feel uneasy about him. I have a sample of his posts here from the end of the day, and on their own they are ok I suppose but it just reads like he's trying too hard to act Town, especially in light of Scrafty getting lynched and being Mafia. It's likely I'm reading too much into it, but some of these interactions feel forced.

What in the world are you doing? We had three hours to go and you are one vote in front of the two runner-ups (neither of them has your vote). There was literally no reason to claim just yet. You just should have tried to steer it towards your suspected scums instead of claiming. Once more people pile up on you, fine, but not in this situation...

That being said, I'm not at all convinced about that roleclaim. On the off chance that you're speaking the truth, I'm not sure if it is the right move to investigate further and therefore clear the supposed confusion for Mafia. But as I said, I'm not convinced about your claim at all yet. Tell us as much as you can without spoiling the confusion part!

For example, this is the exact sort of thing Mafia could say to get some Town cred ('Nooo don't roleclaim!'). Is Flush implying that he would rather people roleclaimed at the deadline itself? I'm really glad Scrafty did her #unnecessarygambit2015 in advance of it, as it gave me some time to evaluate (even though she was scum in the end). So basically, I don't agree with Flush's point in the above post, and it feels forced.

Okay I may not be able to post again after this and by the time I'm able it'll be the end of the first day. It's been a pretty typical first day, too much activity from some not enough from others. So in protest to there being no vote from me I will leave one here unless I can catch some others post in the next hour or so and my vote is...

VOTE: Ourobolus

I will just leave that there without any words, I don't expect any of you to act upon it of course.

That's ... inconsistent? At least give us a reason why especially Ouro if you changed your mind about hopping onto the next bandwagon.

It sure is but a vote is a vote, if you want me to vote someone else then you should probably say so now because after this post I'm a ghost.

I just wanted to know why you chose Ourobolus. There has to be a reason as it is not bandwagoning. As king me who you should vote for seems odd at least.

(I know I might not get an answer from you before the day ends, I just wanted to point it out)

Also, I'm not sure what to make of this interaction between GC and Flush. This also feels a little forced to me. Was Flush pushing GC to change his vote, as it could potentially save his teammate? Again, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but something feels off. Not sure what to think of GC's reaction to Flush's prodding either. Looking forward to GC to shed some light on this.

Who do we think were scum's top targets last night?

When I was Despair, my kill decisions were not necessarily about who to kill, but who not to kill. I preferred to leave the 'controversial' figures alive so that people could talk about them the next day and hopefully mislynch. For example, I would have left Rats, Terra, Flush and Retro alive (assuming they themselves are not mafia lol). I would have probably targeted Ouro, Sawneeks or Roy, seeing as they were strong Town in many people's lists.

I'm sort of inclined to believe Scrafty, but at this point it could come down to the two of us and I know for a fact I'm Town.

I still don't know how I feel about this post by Rats, considering that Scrafty was Mafia. I called him out on it before Scrafty was lynched. If we assume Rats is mafia, then it would make sense for him to bus Scrafty in that situation, especially if his power was more useful than hers. The reason I'm not so sure is because he specifically says 'I'm sort of inclined to believe Scrafty'. If he was Mafia he could have just said 'I don't believe Scrafty' -> BUS. Anyway, Rats feels less scummier than yesterday, but I'm keeping an eye on him.

VOTE: Royal_Flush

I still feel uneasy about Rats and Retro as well.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
And I'm sure they know more about it than I do. That's how this game works. I have a piece of information that leads me to believe someone is scum. It's also why I am considering alternatives. But because while it's a low chance, the fact is there was no kill last night.
 
I still don't know how I feel about this post by Rats, considering that Scrafty was Mafia. I called him out on it before Scrafty was lynched. If we assume Rats is mafia, then it would make sense for him to bus Scrafty in that situation, especially if his power was more useful than hers. The reason I'm not so sure is because he specifically says 'I'm sort of inclined to believe Scrafty'. If he was Mafia he could have just said 'I don't believe Scrafty' -> BUS. Anyway, Rats feels less scummier than yesterday, but I'm keeping an eye on him.

When I wrote that post I was sitting in my car and had all of three minutes to catch up on the thread and compose a final statement before heading into work. I just didn't have time to read everything carefully and fully weigh the implications.
 

squidyj

Member
honestly if you're going to go about it like this you might as well just make it explicit because you can't think for a moment that you're fooling mafia with this, can you?
 

Ourobolus

Banned
honestly if you're going to go about it like this you might as well just make it explicit because you can't think for a moment that you're fooling mafia with this, can you?
I'm fine with that. I'm sure you can figure it out though. I even left a breadcrumb if you're so inclined to dig it up.
 

Swamped

Banned
When I wrote that post I was sitting in my car and had all of three minutes to catch up on the thread and compose a final statement before heading into work. I just didn't have time to read everything carefully and fully weigh the implications.

Driving and texting? How Scummy! :p
 

squidyj

Member
I of course don't mean outlining the limits of the ability, hell i'd probably lie about that if I was you but I want the name of your role at the very least.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
I of course don't mean outlining the limits of the ability, hell i'd probably lie about that if I was you but I want the name of your role at the very least.
Nah, I don't feel like limiting the pool of GAF names in case someone wants to fake claim.
 

squidyj

Member
After Scrafty claimed SalvaPot, nobody counterclaimed. Can we assume mafia has a list of fake names they can use?

so then this would obviate both my insistence on ouro's role name AND his insistence on not giving it as mafia with a list of free names wouldn't fall into his supposed trap.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
Though if Launch did what I did, I gave mafia one less fake name then they had players, so they had to invent at least one.
 

roytheone

Member
Though if Launch did what I did, I gave mafia one less fake name then they had players, so they had to invent at least one.

Tim gave us all a fake role claim in nx, and he even gave us a new fake role claim after he realized one of the fake ones we got was pretty weak and too similar to a real one.
 
:)

The names are flavor and just that. The focus of the game is not for you to draw conclusions from a flavor name alone, hence why there is a legitimate role name attached to it such as "Ordinary" or "Saboteur".
 

Ourobolus

Banned
so what do we do with you if retro turns up town?
All I have is correlating data. I did something, and there was no kill. It's not causation, but it's more than enough for me to want to test my theory.

If I'm wrong and you want to lynch me tomorrow, go for it. But I'm not doing anything aside from testing. I've asked for alternative options, and so far there haven't been any (which is fine, I don't really want PRs to claim).
 
All I have is correlating data. I did something, and there was no kill. It's not causation, but it's more than enough for me to want to test my theory.

If I'm wrong and you want to lynch me tomorrow, go for it. But I'm not doing anything aside from testing. I've asked for alternative options, and so far there haven't been any (which is fine, I don't really want PRs to claim).

There are all kinds of possible explanations for what (didn't) happen last night. One piece of data is not enough to go lynching somebody in lieu of a person who has exhibited demonstrably suspicious behavior, in full sight of everybody.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
There are all kinds of possible explanations for what (didn't) happen last night. One piece of data is not enough to go lynching somebody in lieu of a person who has exhibited demonstrably suspicious behavior, in full sight of everybody.
I know that. But we do it all the time. It's day 2, we don't have much information as-is.

I've outlined Retro's odd posts from D1, and I used my role on him last night. It's not like I went after him randomly.
 
I know that. But we do it all the time. It's day 2, we don't have much information as-is.

I've outlined Retro's odd posts from D1, and I used my role on him last night. It's not like I went after him randomly.

His posts are odd, but do they make a stronger case than the one against Royal Flush?
 

roytheone

Member
I think I just found your breadcrumb ourob! Seriously, it is so goddamn obvious what you are that I am kind of surprised people are still confused about it.
 
I'm not against lynching Retro altogether, I just think one night of incomplete data isn't enough to be making decisions with. Launchpad said when we signed up that this probably isn't a terribly balanced game, so we can't even begin to imagine what went down after only seeing two flips.

The case against Flush is purely based on what we all have in front of our faces. It's a shockingly solid lead for Day Two.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I'm all for Flush, considering the evidence, but I do want to point out that Scrafty also gave Retro a ??? Read in her read post. This is part of why I think ouro is on to something.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
In a game called GAFia Mafi, that'll be the day!

I don't think we'll get so lucky though, I mean, Blarg has yet to surface with his ultimate plan!

#TEAM800FEET

#NASABRUCEWILLIS
 

*Splinter

Member
We hit scum N1, we can afford a mislynch.

On the other hand, it's by no means unlikely that Ouro was right. In that case this is a very short game: we lynch Retro today, he flips scum, Ouro blocks Royal, no kill N2, we lynch Royal, gg, Launch changes the win conditions and 3 serial killers activate and murder us all, gg
 

roytheone

Member
I'm all for Flush, considering the evidence, but I do want to point out that Scrafty also gave Retro a ??? Read in her read post. This is part of why I think ouro is on to something.

I really doubt a scum member would make both of her two scum partners stand out in her read list in the exact same way. That would be the biggest mistake of a scum in Gafia history.
 
Concerned about:
roytheone
GreatCharleston

You shouldn't concern yourself over us. I heard through the grapevine that roytheone is a Townie.

My vote to Ourobolus was just a shot in the dark, a vote is better than none at all and instead of bandwagoning on Scrafty (Who I so deeply wanted to trust) so I just threw out a vote on one of the strongest players in the game and like clock work Sorian has been killed so there was no point in voting for him. I have no real ulterior motive though at the time it was a last minute decision.

Also, I'm not sure what to make of this interaction between GC and Flush. This also feels a little forced to me. Was Flush pushing GC to change his vote, as it could potentially save his teammate? Again, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but something feels off. Not sure what to think of GC's reaction to Flush's prodding either. Looking forward to GC to shed some light on this.

I was awaiting anyone to try and shift my vote to another because I knew Ouro was not the best choice to go with, he never did sway me in the end obviously but I was open to it, it's up to you really whether he was trying hard to have me switch it up because at the time I was the one who wanted to be talked into voting another person.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I really doubt a scum member would make both of her two scum partners stand out in her read list in the exact same way. That would be the biggest mistake of a scum in Gafia history.
She got lynched day 1, doesn't she already own that dubious honor?


All kidding aside, you make a good point,
We can only really use the reads post as a side comparison rather than definitive evidence.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Top Town:

- Roytheone: Has willingly given out information as to what the Mafia might be doing based on his previous Mafia-aligned actions in past games as well as questioning people on their scummy behavior.
- Squidyj: Early game was definitely very weird and his open defense of Star is odd but other than that he has a fairly solid play. Of course I may be reading it incorrectly.
- *Splinter: Really active and has been pushing people who are giving questionable answers or results. Some dodges here and there but the good outweighs the negative right now.
-Ourobolus* : Soft-claim aside I went back and did some reading and didn't really find anything horribly suspicious in his Day 1 actions. Unless Mafia had planned from early on to bus Scrafty and then let Ouro bread crumb his way into today just to lynch Retro I have a hard time believing he is scum.

Top Scum:

- Terrabyte20xx: Never fully explained his actions Day 1, dodged around questions for a while, never even answered my questions directed at him, etc. Likes to dance around things a lot which is weird considering this taco place doesn't even have music playing. :(
- GreatCharleston: Really quiet and the only posts of note are a vote without any real explanation. I just don't know for him tbh but he feels scummier than some others.
- Royal_Flush: Doubling down on your defense of Scrafty? I mean, makes sense, but given the evidence against her at that time plus how loose the roleclaim even was it is just odd to defend her at all. But hey, you already made your choice to defend her so you might as well go down with the ship, huh?
- RetroMG* : I'm waiting for Ouro and Retro to fight it out but it isn't looking good for Retro right now. Quiet in Day 1, the notable posts are of him being uncertain in the Scrafty v. Rats end vote before finally going after Scrafty because of something fishy in her claim. Feels bandwagon-y, really.

I don't think there are 4+ Mafia in this game so I doubt all 4 of my Top Scum names are accurate but they are who I think have the biggest chance of flipping Mafia.

* Pretty easy to test out. I will see what Retro pops up and says but it seems like we already have our decision on who to lynch today. Also, if Retro flips Town it won't necessarily mean Ouro is scum, just means there was another reason for a no kill last night.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
I don't think there are 4+ Mafia in this game so I doubt all 4 of my Top Scum names are accurate but they are who I think have the biggest chance of flipping Mafia.
So I was thinking about this, and considering this game was touted as "unbalanced," we should probably at least consider the fact that there may be 4 scum. Again, we don't know and don't need to really worry about it just yet, but it's just a thought.

* Pretty easy to test out. I will see what Retro pops up and says but it seems like we already have our decision on who to lynch today. Also, if Retro flips Town it won't necessarily mean Ouro is scum, just means there was another reason for a no kill last night.

Right. This is why I was concerned about competing theories.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
My vote to Ourobolus was just a shot in the dark, a vote is better than none at all and instead of bandwagoning on Scrafty (Who I so deeply wanted to trust) so I just threw out a vote on one of the strongest players in the game and like clock work Sorian has been killed so there was no point in voting for him. I have no real ulterior motive though at the time it was a last minute decision.

I don't understand the reasoning behind the bolded.
 
I don't understand the reasoning behind the bolded.

There's either players with a strong presence or those with a weak one and you're certainly the former and to play as scum and be that is quite a talent not that I'm saying I have any hints of you being such. It's just voting someone less notable is kinda boring and a weak play in being paranoid about them being a killer. Just like how some of you are with me. I don't have no real drive to vote for you again though, quite the opposite actually.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
Random thought. I don't think squidy is scum. I believe he's a neutral lyncher, looking for a specific player.

El Topo looking for roy?

Anyway, just a thought.
 
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