It's not going around and around. No one else has engaged so just answer.
Assume I'm not scum. Who then are the last two scum? And answer my other question above as well.
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Gafia 2.5: The Bachelor Party |Mafia OT| One Last Override
- Thread starter Sorian
- Start date
It's not going around and around. No one else has engaged so just answer.
Assume I'm not scum. Who then are the last two scum? And answer my other question above as well.
flatearthpandas
Member
I got no results last night. I did get a banana, flavor matches what Sophia shared d1. Would like to get the plan down fairly quickly so Stanley has a good window to shoot in and we have a window to deal with things should the shot fail or something else go awry.
From scum to town, I'm thinking
Flame
Gorlak
Kawl/Royal
Stanley
Me
If we survive into D6, Kawl will be my suspect. If it's Royal, we'll probably lose. A role handing out lynch immunity would be crazy for scum. If the bananas have random effects, could see it being a scum role. Could see kawl's role being scum as well. Mine as well, for that matter, except scum already had a tracker. Stanley's is the most town imo.
From scum to town, I'm thinking
Flame
Gorlak
Kawl/Royal
Stanley
Me
If we survive into D6, Kawl will be my suspect. If it's Royal, we'll probably lose. A role handing out lynch immunity would be crazy for scum. If the bananas have random effects, could see it being a scum role. Could see kawl's role being scum as well. Mine as well, for that matter, except scum already had a tracker. Stanley's is the most town imo.
So, and I agree with you on Stanley (assuming he uses the role), who are the last two scum, if I am not one of them.
Everyone is making a mistake by lynching me today, I don't know what I can do to convince you all though. Just for hypothetical's sake, say I'm town. Do you then think it is Gorlak and Kawl who are the two scum? By that logic, shouldn't we shoot right now, me if you all think that's best, and then we don't have to worry about scum tunneling Kawl, do we?
Scum wouldn't put their votes onto Kawl, the numbers wouldn't work out. So we should go ahead and shoot me or Gorlak now if you really think Kawl is third likeliest to be scum.
flatearthpandas
Member
I don't know if I was or wasn't roleblocked.
Will you entertain my hypothetical posited above?
Also, who did you try and watch? Kawl?
flatearthpandas
Member
Eh. If Royal is scum I do think we're probably boned. Assuming Flame is town and kawl is scum, yes, we could shoot whenever. But there's no point in being hasty.
At the very least, we do know that RF is indeed the fruit vendor.
So, from your point of view based on your list. Shouldn't we go ahead and shoot right now, because Kawl is the next option to be scum? They won't turbo themselves, so we have another ~36 hours to figure out where to go.
Also, who do you think should be shot, myself or Gorlak? Look at the contributions and take a wide look at the game, do you really think I am scum?
flatearthpandas
Member
I think there's no reason to be hasty. I think the person more likely to be scum needs to be the vote target or else scum will hammer them before the shot and NK stanley/win.
So need to think about that.
So need to think about that.
Alright, so then answer the question, who should go down first. Gorlak or myself? Just giving an answer doesn't mean something is going to happen, it's just saying your opinion.
Say everyone somehow decides it's me.
Stanley shoots me -> Gorlak/Kawl/Royal/Stanley/FEP are left with say 24 hours in Day 5.
On your logic, and I'm inclined to agree, there's no need to vote stack as Kawl is the third most likely to be scum according to you. That gives the remaining people 1 day to find out who should be lynched.
The faster we shoot, regardless of who, the more likely we are to stand a chance at winning, right?
Also, FEP, you are convinced I'm scum, right? Top of your list and all.
If we miss with the shot the game is already over.
Since we haven't uncovered any new information since day 2s end in terms of scum flip I'm resorting to poor form and looking at it from a role and game mechanic stand point. I suspected Squidy and Sophia strongly so I don't really trust my reads at this point.
So I say shoot FEP. I don't think fruit vendor or day vig are scum roles. FEPs role is the only one I don't know for sure. I know he watched night 2, but he might very well have some type of JOAT role. Idk. I was sure Sophia was scum, so things look pretty grim now
Since we haven't uncovered any new information since day 2s end in terms of scum flip I'm resorting to poor form and looking at it from a role and game mechanic stand point. I suspected Squidy and Sophia strongly so I don't really trust my reads at this point.
So I say shoot FEP. I don't think fruit vendor or day vig are scum roles. FEPs role is the only one I don't know for sure. I know he watched night 2, but he might very well have some type of JOAT role. Idk. I was sure Sophia was scum, so things look pretty grim now
So what happened to your suspicion of me? Gorlak?
flatearthpandas
Member
I'm at work now, not much opportunity to post.
If kawl is scum, we can afford to miss the shot. But yeah, otherwise we need to hit both scum today.
Between a vig, vendor, and virgin, roles have been swingy enough that I could see the remaining scum team possibly being normals.
Among our pr's, kawl is the most likely. He didn't breadcrumb for shit, could have got info on Royal from Zipped N1, and just had to confirm everyone else's claimed roles from there. On the other hand, he did specify that Royal is a fruit vendor and not some other name so that makes me believe he is indeed a role cop. But again, that could feasibly be a scum role.
I am confirmed watcher. I could be joat, but it really makes no sense to have a scum tracker and a scum watcher in this game, even wrapped in a joat.
I'm not sure who I would rather have the votes on between Flame and Gorlak but I for sure think the votes should be there and the shot should end the day.
flatearthpandas
Member
Shooting me would be a huge mistake. I am convinced there is at least one scum between Gorlak and Flame, if not both. We have four pr's out and i could wifom myself into thinking any except stanley is potentially a scum pr. I think we need to attack where we are most sure there is scum. Shooting blindly into confirmed pr's seems like the best way to guarantee the lose.
To be honest, Gorlak is my number one so right now I would say put the votes on him but the execution here is tricky. If anything, I would say we should put the vote one under the new majority so it can't be hammered before the shot. Then stanley can immediately put in the final vote after taking the shot. Probably pm Sorian to make sure moderation is ready for the flurry.
To be honest, Gorlak is my number one so right now I would say put the votes on him but the execution here is tricky. If anything, I would say we should put the vote one under the new majority so it can't be hammered before the shot. Then stanley can immediately put in the final vote after taking the shot. Probably pm Sorian to make sure moderation is ready for the flurry.
flatearthpandas
Member
I think that's our best chance of a win.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
i swear to christ if flame tells us he is town one more time I, I....... well i just cant be held responsible for what i might do!
anyway,
i sure would like to have Gorlak's input before any decisions are made.
now this next part may take a bit of extra faith in me.
once we have decided on how we would like to use my Day kill, let me handle how we should organize our votes in regards to it, a little birdie has told me some particulars on how the kill will work, but i dont want to just throw that info out there and risk scum doing something with it that i haven't anticipated.
anyway,
i sure would like to have Gorlak's input before any decisions are made.
now this next part may take a bit of extra faith in me.
once we have decided on how we would like to use my Day kill, let me handle how we should organize our votes in regards to it, a little birdie has told me some particulars on how the kill will work, but i dont want to just throw that info out there and risk scum doing something with it that i haven't anticipated.
Shoot me then Stanley, it's clear I'm not going to be able to convince enough of you all that I am ordinary town, AbsolutBro, the broiest bro there is.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
Friend, i am a man with a loaded gun and trigger finger getting itchier by the second,
do not test me.
right now my scum suspects go:
You
you
You
Gorlak
uoY
RoyalFlush
You
Flame_AC
You
Me
You
Sophia, by the power of the banana, resurrected as our worst nightmare.
StanleyPalmetree
I'm going to bed.
Could you at least answer some of the stuff I've put forward?
At the very least you probably aren't making it out of today, if you are somehow town, I wanna know your thoughts.
Answer stuff you've put forward today, Flame? ...
You're not scum? - I don't believe you.
Roleblocking Stan's day kill? - How would that work? I have yet to see how a night action that would block a day action.
Forgetting FEP watched Kawl N2? Theorizing about Kawl being scum. - See below
What exactly are you trying to achieve? You prompt everyone into writing "Gorlak + x is scum" because "for the sake of the argument" you're not? Do you think repeating this more often will convince them?
Next you want to shoot even though two had not checked in yet because it was the middle of the night here in Europe. In addition you wanted to shoot Sophia immediatly yesterday and asked for shooting me immediatly at day start as well. What's up with that? Trigger happy to secure your win?
---
I am town. Throughout the whole game I have been scumhunting. Starting with the Droplet vanilla fiasco I made it very clear that it's useless to reveal your role as an ordinary. I tried to play my role as good as I could, up to the point that FEP still believes I'm scum because I wouldn't cooperate with him.
FEP, just one last time: I had no reason to believe anything you said back then. Try to take my viewpoint. Somebody comes along and says: "Reveal your role and we catch scum!" There was no indication if you were lying or not. We could have avoided this, but that's history.
Day 2 vote shenanigans? Flame was on his way out, why would I try to shift the votes and risk being exposed by tying on purpose? This would only make slightly sense if Zipped, Flame and me were the scum team, but at the same time why would I as the only one not in danger of being lynched at that time raise so much suspicion onto me? I was convinced Sophia was scum as I was yesterday and assumed a wrong vote count at the last minute of the day. Otherwise I (as a hypothetical scum) could have just sit still and not do anything, Sophia was the leading lynch, hypothetical scum members would have surely prevented me from doing something like that.
Yesterday was more about excluding every possibility where we could go wrong. We did and Sophia was the next logical step. She was the only one who was unconfirmed and could've been a PR. We were wrong about her though.
This brings us here today. Flame is scum. That's definitely confirmed for me, as I'm not scum. The next question is who is the last one?
If Stanley is scum with a day kill we already lost. He coasted all game and provided little to no insight about anything. His claim yesterday which nobody believes to serve a purpose (besides being confirmed by Kawl today maybe and not gaining suspicion?) would've effectively won scum the game. Anyway the fact that we are still talking makes me somewhat more optimistic. Scum could've simply ended this before long, so I agree with FEP that Stanley is the most towniest person at this point.
Next up is FEP himself. I disagree with Kawl about a possible JOAT, but just to make sure I would like to hear from FEP what he did the other nights? I doubt you are a 1-shot watcher. Even so, that makes no sense in a scum team with tracker. We have to find a solution and I think it's reasonable to assume that FEP is town.
Kawl? There is a way he could be scum. That would include having seen Flush visiting Sophia N1. Possible with the tracking power of zipped. Bringing up the fruit vendor term? Kawl was the one to bring up this exact term after Sophia talked about being fruity #344. I can't see a direct reaction from Flush to that. That is one weak point in this theory. Who else did Kawl confirm? Flame, his team partner in this case. And me, who said he didn't move N2. I could've easily been the day vig, another weak point. Now he confirmed Stanley who claimed beforehand. All in all it would've been a gamble to go this route. It's possible, but I don't know, it isn't exactly a strong theory.
That leaves Flush. Is the fruit vendor a scum role? Could be. He gave FEP the banana tonight though. Otherwise he is a low activity player and while his posts seemed townie, he could be very well scum. There isn't much else I can say. He left me alone against FEP, when I was defending his role/not minimizing the possible people having this role. Reasonable if he thought it's as powerful as it seems to be, but a valid strategy in either case. If he is scum he bussed Zipped on Day2 and voted with him and Flame on Day 1 against Droplet.
Looking at the vote count that could be the case:
They could've killed squidyj to frame me, because the other day1 voters are confirmed town and three scum on one suspect naturally looks unbelievable.
I'm inclined to believe it's either Kawl or Flush, with Flush more likely to be the last scum.
We can argue about this after we get rid of Flame. He is the second scum we have to shoot today. Anything else doesn't make much sense. I can't see two of the claimed PRs to be scum, so one has to be an ordinary and that's Flame.
You're not scum? - I don't believe you.
Roleblocking Stan's day kill? - How would that work? I have yet to see how a night action that would block a day action.
Forgetting FEP watched Kawl N2? Theorizing about Kawl being scum. - See below
What exactly are you trying to achieve? You prompt everyone into writing "Gorlak + x is scum" because "for the sake of the argument" you're not? Do you think repeating this more often will convince them?
Next you want to shoot even though two had not checked in yet because it was the middle of the night here in Europe. In addition you wanted to shoot Sophia immediatly yesterday and asked for shooting me immediatly at day start as well. What's up with that? Trigger happy to secure your win?
---
I am town. Throughout the whole game I have been scumhunting. Starting with the Droplet vanilla fiasco I made it very clear that it's useless to reveal your role as an ordinary. I tried to play my role as good as I could, up to the point that FEP still believes I'm scum because I wouldn't cooperate with him.
FEP, just one last time: I had no reason to believe anything you said back then. Try to take my viewpoint. Somebody comes along and says: "Reveal your role and we catch scum!" There was no indication if you were lying or not. We could have avoided this, but that's history.
Day 2 vote shenanigans? Flame was on his way out, why would I try to shift the votes and risk being exposed by tying on purpose? This would only make slightly sense if Zipped, Flame and me were the scum team, but at the same time why would I as the only one not in danger of being lynched at that time raise so much suspicion onto me? I was convinced Sophia was scum as I was yesterday and assumed a wrong vote count at the last minute of the day. Otherwise I (as a hypothetical scum) could have just sit still and not do anything, Sophia was the leading lynch, hypothetical scum members would have surely prevented me from doing something like that.
Yesterday was more about excluding every possibility where we could go wrong. We did and Sophia was the next logical step. She was the only one who was unconfirmed and could've been a PR. We were wrong about her though.
This brings us here today. Flame is scum. That's definitely confirmed for me, as I'm not scum. The next question is who is the last one?
If Stanley is scum with a day kill we already lost. He coasted all game and provided little to no insight about anything. His claim yesterday which nobody believes to serve a purpose (besides being confirmed by Kawl today maybe and not gaining suspicion?) would've effectively won scum the game. Anyway the fact that we are still talking makes me somewhat more optimistic. Scum could've simply ended this before long, so I agree with FEP that Stanley is the most towniest person at this point.
Next up is FEP himself. I disagree with Kawl about a possible JOAT, but just to make sure I would like to hear from FEP what he did the other nights? I doubt you are a 1-shot watcher. Even so, that makes no sense in a scum team with tracker. We have to find a solution and I think it's reasonable to assume that FEP is town.
Kawl? There is a way he could be scum. That would include having seen Flush visiting Sophia N1. Possible with the tracking power of zipped. Bringing up the fruit vendor term? Kawl was the one to bring up this exact term after Sophia talked about being fruity #344. I can't see a direct reaction from Flush to that. That is one weak point in this theory. Who else did Kawl confirm? Flame, his team partner in this case. And me, who said he didn't move N2. I could've easily been the day vig, another weak point. Now he confirmed Stanley who claimed beforehand. All in all it would've been a gamble to go this route. It's possible, but I don't know, it isn't exactly a strong theory.
That leaves Flush. Is the fruit vendor a scum role? Could be. He gave FEP the banana tonight though. Otherwise he is a low activity player and while his posts seemed townie, he could be very well scum. There isn't much else I can say. He left me alone against FEP, when I was defending his role/not minimizing the possible people having this role. Reasonable if he thought it's as powerful as it seems to be, but a valid strategy in either case. If he is scum he bussed Zipped on Day2 and voted with him and Flame on Day 1 against Droplet.
Looking at the vote count that could be the case:
They could've killed squidyj to frame me, because the other day1 voters are confirmed town and three scum on one suspect naturally looks unbelievable.
I'm inclined to believe it's either Kawl or Flush, with Flush more likely to be the last scum.
We can argue about this after we get rid of Flame. He is the second scum we have to shoot today. Anything else doesn't make much sense. I can't see two of the claimed PRs to be scum, so one has to be an ordinary and that's Flame.
I don't agree with that Gorlak. Assuming one of yall is scum then obviously you both know which is which and both will be making the case of okay clearly the other is scum so let's take of that before moving on to another. Unfortunately for the rest of us it's still a 50/50. Flame has been acting very erratic and you've been calmer and more assured throughout the game but that doesn't really convince me of much.
I think finding the scum pr (and I don't buy the double goon team) should be the goal of our shot. Having thought it over during the night, I think it's Royal Flush. A role that removes someone from being able to be lynched. It's usurping the one way town can impart it's will onto the game as a whole. We've been focused on it being town sided because it bumped the lynch onto a scum member but there's no way Royal could have known that's how it would play out.
Since then Royal has given it to himself, and then the night kill target. Why did he choose Crimson at that junction? I don't know if I buy that he isn't aware what his items do.
It's also possible he gave it to a teammate on N2 instead of himself which leaves him with the game on the bag even if we shoot the mafia goon.
If we hit on this first shot, there is a logical step on who we should lynch that hopefully everyone will see.
I think finding the scum pr (and I don't buy the double goon team) should be the goal of our shot. Having thought it over during the night, I think it's Royal Flush. A role that removes someone from being able to be lynched. It's usurping the one way town can impart it's will onto the game as a whole. We've been focused on it being town sided because it bumped the lynch onto a scum member but there's no way Royal could have known that's how it would play out.
Since then Royal has given it to himself, and then the night kill target. Why did he choose Crimson at that junction? I don't know if I buy that he isn't aware what his items do.
It's also possible he gave it to a teammate on N2 instead of himself which leaves him with the game on the bag even if we shoot the mafia goon.
If we hit on this first shot, there is a logical step on who we should lynch that hopefully everyone will see.
Royal_Flush
Member
I honestly don't see another possibility than my banana blocking the lynch on D2. If it was an override it would have been a Town-sided override and why on earth wouldn't that be claimed by now? Unless it was multi-shot which would just be silly. There is the possibility that it does some random thing based on RNG, but occam's razor and stuff.
That means that we don't need to hit both remaining Scum today to win but only one. But if we hit only one, a new risk emerges: Kawl could be the remaining Scum and be unlynchable with my banana tomorrow. In a Zipped-Gorlak-Kawl scumteam his claim would be very easy to fake if Zipped watched me N1. To go from banana flavor to fruit vendor is a bit risky, but not that much. It would be harder in a Zipped-Flame-Kawl scumteam since Gorlak didn't explicitly state his role was Ordinary before Kawl revealed. However, looking at the overall game performance, Flame is more suspicious than Gorlak to me. Given that 3/14 with at least one Neutral are pretty strong numbers for Scum we can't entirely dismiss the possibility of both being Vanilla Scum. FEP also is a distant possibility with a 2-shot Tracker and a 2-shot Watcher on the same team would be a nice symmetry (the 2 here is an assumption of the value for X based on symmetry), but I'm not sure if this Gorlak thing makes sense for Scum FEP. Does it make more sense for a Gorlak-FEP scumteam? I'm not sure the possible reward outweighs the risk.
The only person (other than me) I'm almost entirely sure is Town is Stanley. Claiming daytime vig makes no sense if he isn't. If he was a scum daytime vig he would shoot someone right no (Probably me) than he gets lynched, the remaining Scum does a NK and then that person can hammer Kawl tomorrow (Well, unless our Scum team is Stanley-Kawl). Also, come on, a Scum vig shot in a 3/14 scenario? It would have to be a 2/14 for this to be balanced and than it's even more unlikely that Stan went after Zipped as early as he did. If Stanley doesn't have a daytime vig-shot we will find out soon enough and can lynch him. Adding to this that he was gunning hard for Zipped since the beginning, I'd say he isn't part of the Scum team.
So, to answer that question that Flame already asked two times this phase: If we exclude Flame, my top Scum team would be Gorlak-Kawl, but I think both Flame-Gorlak and Flame-Kawl are more likely.
As for how to proceed: As soon as Stanley shoots the majority drops down to 3, right? So if we stack 3 people (including Stanley) on our second lynch target, that person would get automatically lynched when he shoots unless his target is part of those 3. However, if we do this and we stack on Town, a Scum player could hammer before Stanley has the option to take the shot and then simply NK Stanley. We would be 2-2 then by tomorrow, so this is a problem. It would be safer if we only stack 2 people, then Stanley shoots and in the same post votes. That would mean that the two Scum would have to neither be in the stack nor be its target for them to hammer before Stanley takes the shot. If we don't stack at all we have the problem that if Stanley misses, Scum can hammer Kawl afterwards. So I propose we stack 2 people Stanley isn't going to shoot.
That means that we don't need to hit both remaining Scum today to win but only one. But if we hit only one, a new risk emerges: Kawl could be the remaining Scum and be unlynchable with my banana tomorrow. In a Zipped-Gorlak-Kawl scumteam his claim would be very easy to fake if Zipped watched me N1. To go from banana flavor to fruit vendor is a bit risky, but not that much. It would be harder in a Zipped-Flame-Kawl scumteam since Gorlak didn't explicitly state his role was Ordinary before Kawl revealed. However, looking at the overall game performance, Flame is more suspicious than Gorlak to me. Given that 3/14 with at least one Neutral are pretty strong numbers for Scum we can't entirely dismiss the possibility of both being Vanilla Scum. FEP also is a distant possibility with a 2-shot Tracker and a 2-shot Watcher on the same team would be a nice symmetry (the 2 here is an assumption of the value for X based on symmetry), but I'm not sure if this Gorlak thing makes sense for Scum FEP. Does it make more sense for a Gorlak-FEP scumteam? I'm not sure the possible reward outweighs the risk.
The only person (other than me) I'm almost entirely sure is Town is Stanley. Claiming daytime vig makes no sense if he isn't. If he was a scum daytime vig he would shoot someone right no (Probably me) than he gets lynched, the remaining Scum does a NK and then that person can hammer Kawl tomorrow (Well, unless our Scum team is Stanley-Kawl). Also, come on, a Scum vig shot in a 3/14 scenario? It would have to be a 2/14 for this to be balanced and than it's even more unlikely that Stan went after Zipped as early as he did. If Stanley doesn't have a daytime vig-shot we will find out soon enough and can lynch him. Adding to this that he was gunning hard for Zipped since the beginning, I'd say he isn't part of the Scum team.
So, to answer that question that Flame already asked two times this phase: If we exclude Flame, my top Scum team would be Gorlak-Kawl, but I think both Flame-Gorlak and Flame-Kawl are more likely.
As for how to proceed: As soon as Stanley shoots the majority drops down to 3, right? So if we stack 3 people (including Stanley) on our second lynch target, that person would get automatically lynched when he shoots unless his target is part of those 3. However, if we do this and we stack on Town, a Scum player could hammer before Stanley has the option to take the shot and then simply NK Stanley. We would be 2-2 then by tomorrow, so this is a problem. It would be safer if we only stack 2 people, then Stanley shoots and in the same post votes. That would mean that the two Scum would have to neither be in the stack nor be its target for them to hammer before Stanley takes the shot. If we don't stack at all we have the problem that if Stanley misses, Scum can hammer Kawl afterwards. So I propose we stack 2 people Stanley isn't going to shoot.
flatearthpandas
Member
No point hiding it since I doubt we see another day phase. I am a two shot watcher. I first moved n2 and saw Kawl on Gorlak. I used my second shot n3 on Sophia and got no result. Pretty safe to assume nothing happened to Sophia that night so if there is a scum roleblocker I can't confirm any evidence of it.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
royal is pretty on the money in that plan to proceed with the 1-2 shoot lynch combo.
two votes on whoever we are lynching (votes not from the two being killed obviously) > th i vote > immediately after i shoot. town wins!
well i need to sleep now, will check back in as soon as i wake up.
two votes on whoever we are lynching (votes not from the two being killed obviously) > th i vote > immediately after i shoot. town wins!
well i need to sleep now, will check back in as soon as i wake up.
No. That plan is not the best path forward now that Sophia was a mislynch.
Reevaluate for a minute and think on the situation.
flatearthpandas
Member
I think the only way to win the game if we miss the shot is if Kawl is scum. Unless the bananas are random, I would not give kawl a banana if the game continues after the shot.
Right and given I know I'm not scum, if we miss the shot the game is over.
If we hit the shot, there is only one lynch to proceed with.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
ah i should have clarified that i just meant if we do want to do both kills simultaneously, thats how we should go about it. not that we necessarily should do them simultaneously.
i really do nee dsleep.
flatearthpandas
Member
There's an idea. Shoot royal. Lynch kawl. If we really believe there is scum in the prs, it's one of them. We can't lynch royal or I would suggest shooting kawl first. Assuming we hit scum, i get nk'd (banana), and then stanley, gorlak, flame take it to lylo. Of course, this plan doesn't look as hot from outside of my perspective.
I still feel very certain we have scum in flame gorlak though and would prefer to do that. If we shoot into them and hit scum, i say we lynch kawl. Then we can have a proper lylo tomorrow with whoever's left.
I like 50% odds of hitting scum better than 33.3%.
Other thought, if we shoot into flame gorlak and miss we can no lynch and banana kawl. Then we'll go into d6 with 3:2, lynch immune prs, and still likely scum in between gorlak and flame.
I still feel very certain we have scum in flame gorlak though and would prefer to do that. If we shoot into them and hit scum, i say we lynch kawl. Then we can have a proper lylo tomorrow with whoever's left.
I like 50% odds of hitting scum better than 33.3%.
Other thought, if we shoot into flame gorlak and miss we can no lynch and banana kawl. Then we'll go into d6 with 3:2, lynch immune prs, and still likely scum in between gorlak and flame.
Ideally, Kawl, we'd have established some credible leads, but this isn't a best case game. We've got little to work on other than what each of individually knows to be true. I know I'm town and shooting me likely loses town the game.
I can get on board with the shoot Royal/lynch Kawl train of thought. It's at least trying something.
I can get on board with the shoot Royal/lynch Kawl train of thought. It's at least trying something.
flatearthpandas
Member
I think it's possible. Like i said, we had a lot of swingy roles. Virgin lynch could've boned us pretty hard. Banana could have saved scum from a lynch. Stanley could have and still can shoot whoever he wants and can hit town.
I think it's likely they had another pr though. But I also think shooting into Flame and gorlak is the safest bet. This shot is important and we need the best odds were can get for it.
I think it's likely they had another pr though. But I also think shooting into Flame and gorlak is the safest bet. This shot is important and we need the best odds were can get for it.
If you're asking me to agree with Stanley's chance percentages, then sure he's right. He's got a 50% chance between me and Gorlak.
33% between the PRs.
The best play is for Stanley to shoot ASAP. By his own reasoning, you're third in line to be scum so we don't have to worry about hammer.
If he misses -> 3/2 Before Lynch (2 on Kawl)
->2/2 After lynch, game over. No lynch doesn't help other, game over if he misses.
If he hits -> 4/1 Before Lynch (2 on Kawl)
-> 3/1 After lynch (2 on Kawl)
-> 2/1 After Night Kill (1 on Kawl) - Scum can hammer to start day and win.
No I'm asking you to assume whoever Stanley shoots is scum.
What is towns best move?
Cause that doesn't change regardless of who the scum is.
If he misses scum, it's already game over. Even if we lynch scum afterwards.
So shooting early doesn't really matter. There's no discussion necessary unless you want my opinion before we move on.
What is towns best move?
Cause that doesn't change regardless of who the scum is.
If he misses scum, it's already game over. Even if we lynch scum afterwards.
So shooting early doesn't really matter. There's no discussion necessary unless you want my opinion before we move on.