They will if FIFA does well relative to their internal expectations.
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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report
- Thread starter Volotaire
- Start date
They will if FIFA does well relative to their internal expectations.
I'm just going to chime in and say it would be easy for Nintendo to release a standalone Switch without the base. Like a SKU with just the tablet, joy-cons, and USB-C charger - maybe 1,2,Switch pack-in. They could probably get this cost down to 199.99 or 249.99. And it's not like they couldn't buy the charging unit later.
It's much more feasible than releasing a WiiU without the gamepad, which would have required fundamental OS changes.
I think the console will sell pretty well. Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Sandbox 3D Mario, Splatoon, open-world Zelda, Lego, Minecraft all in one year. It's a portable. It has multiplayer on-the-go and out-of-the-box.
Those saying it will do worse than WiiU are insane.
It's much more feasible than releasing a WiiU without the gamepad, which would have required fundamental OS changes.
I think the console will sell pretty well. Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Sandbox 3D Mario, Splatoon, open-world Zelda, Lego, Minecraft all in one year. It's a portable. It has multiplayer on-the-go and out-of-the-box.
Those saying it will do worse than WiiU are insane.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
I doubt that. It would take a hell of a leap for a tablet sized device to be equivalent to graphics output by large consoles/PCs that can have big GPUs, big cooling systems etc.
I think as engine scaling continues to improve we can see them having fidelity with competitors when docked (or on their console only furture sku) that just scales down significantly for handheld play. So I agree if that's what you meant. But not on the handheld portion catching up and being equivalent to the PS5 or what not.
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Most of those was on WiiU and the general public couldn't care less. I can't see why they would magically go for an expensive handheld. The interest is simply not there.
The 3DS will likely keep selling in that timeframe too. And 40m over 3 years would be pretty damn good, especially as they'll have tons of accessory sales and millions of monthly subs bringing in the cash too. They'll also have their mobile games too.
Crayon
Member
The dockless pack is in their back pocket, for sure. The dock goes for 90 bucks tho so i suspect only a 50 dollar break. So around when the wywtem with dock goes 249 or 199, they can drop a dockless one at 199 or 149.
retail response to titanfall
Taken during my lunch break. Today.
Are you just trolling at this point? What is TITANFALL 2 underperforming have to do with this thread?
Yeah I'm not saying it will have equivalent FLOPs or anything like that - clearly that won't be the case. But what are the PS4 Pro and the like doing with the extra horsepower? 4K? Most consumers just don't care about that.
That's what I once thought about home consoles last generation too.
onemanasylum
Banned
retail response to titanfall. The developer won't be around long.
Taken during my lunch break. Today.
It was fifth in December NPD...... what does TF have to do with this thread?
I can see 35 mill at the highest if the console has a steady 2018/19/20, but not 40. I think 17 will be a tough time for Nintendo and if the Scorpio is an awesome upgrade that people just can't say no to, it will have a tough time competing with it and PS4/Pro in the holidays season.
Why? The dock adds basically nothing to the price. You're turning it into a pure portable for no real reason.
onemanasylum
Banned
lol, too funny.
I don't get it. Because TF2 didn't do too well the developers opinion doesn't matter? Should the same apply to Nintendo then considering the Wii U was a far bigger bomb than Titanfall has been for Respawn?
Oh, and I'm pretty sure Respawn have a Star Wars game in the works, so won't be going anywhere for awhile.
First Look at Nintendo Switch
Posted October 20, 2016
25,289,945 views
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5uik5fgIaI
Nintendo Wii U Trailer (E3 2011)
Posted Jun 7, 2011
11,637,048 views
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e3qaPg_keg
StereoVsn
Gold Member
If Nintendo can manage to produce mobile version of the Switch (so no dock, maybe smaller screen, simplified joycons, whatever) that can hit $200 price tag sometime in 2018, then I think they can get close to the 40 mil mark (my guess more like 30-35 mil). If they cannot, then 20-25 mil.
If this means by the end of 2020, then yeah I can see it. Even though I'm not getting it for a couple of years and think it has a bad first year ahead of it (after sales die down once the early adopters and diehards have already gotten it). I can see it hitting that actually.
Sale price or a nice bundle this holiday season --> permanent price cut early or mid next year (2018) --> 3DS support pretty much drops sometime in 2018 and Pokemon for Switch releases --> non-portable and portable-only variations release early to mid 2019 at an even cheaper price. (the portable only variation may even release earlier, alongside Pokemon if the Switch hasn't been doing that well).
Sale price or a nice bundle this holiday season --> permanent price cut early or mid next year (2018) --> 3DS support pretty much drops sometime in 2018 and Pokemon for Switch releases --> non-portable and portable-only variations release early to mid 2019 at an even cheaper price. (the portable only variation may even release earlier, alongside Pokemon if the Switch hasn't been doing that well).
It's probably about $20-$30 to make. Having distinct and separable Joy Cons adds to the price, as each as its own rechargeable battery, rumble, and wireless connection. Having controllers as part of the unit, and ending support for motion control, probably would save some costs.
I don't think Nintendo will go that route, though.
randomengine
Banned
Obviously they don't understand the market.
How many Star Wars games have. Even cancelled and developers shuttered while working on them? It's a graveyard.
m.i.s.
Banned
Wii U also had Mario 2D / 3D platformers, Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon. GCN also had a similar lineup for that matter - at a much cheaper price and power parity with PS2. That did not prevent them from being commercial duds.
Many of those games are also are not exclusive to Switch or are remasters of Wii U games often costing twice as much as their disc based Wii U counterparts.
And there is just no way the next mainline Pokemon games will be Switch exclusive.
It does, Nintendo sells it for $90. They could also remove the grip. They even already sell these two elements separately. In terms of packaging and supply chain, this new Sku would also cost far less.
It totally makes sense to release this SKUCat some point, should they feel the need to reduce price and increase the user base.
onemanasylum
Banned
Oh my bad, I thought I read that, weird.
You went from comparing it against their previous console to then switching the argument and saying it's a handheld, which had far higher public appeal. Pick a side.
Also it is more than just a handheld come on.
onemanasylum
Banned
Neither do Nintendo then according to this logic.
The dock is like 80$ standalone. It has some internal fans, an hdmi cable, the joy-con thingers, it's plastic. I don't see why that wouldn't pull the price down by $50, and in a year or two might be a realistic proposition.
I'm just considering how they might appeal to the younger 3DS market who were buying 3DS at ~$200.
Duxxy3
Member
That's amazing! I can't wait to get this new controller for my Wii!! How much is it? $100??
Yeah, they seriously fucked up with that first trailer.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
Not just 4K. I have a pro and just a 1080p set. Several games already with better graphics, better framerates etc. But you're right that the average joe gamer doesn't care much about that as the most powerful console hasn't always (or even most of the time) one generations.
That said, it's moot as they'll probably never compete for industry dominance again unless there's some big technology shift after VR that they get out on first.
They just failed to adapt when the market shifted westward (unlike Sony) and just don't have the genres, franchises, art styles etc. that sell to the mainstream market. It will be near impossible for them to get the mindshare to be viewed as they place to go to play games like GTA and CoD when they lack similar first party exclusives to attract those fans.
They're success really lies in maintaining their niche, bringing back lapsed Nintendo fans, and being appealing as a secondary platform to some core gamers by offering something different than what they can get on their main platform. Hopefully the Switch does that for them. But I feel the $300 price, paid online, accessory pricing etc. is a bad start on that front. But maybe that will sell well to their core fans and they can get prices down etc. when those sales dry up and they need to expand their market.
Keep in mind that the dock and all their accessories are horribly marked up. So are controllers from MS and Sony. Accessories have always had the biggest profit margins.
So yeah, there's no way that dock even costs near $50 for them to produce in bulk. So that does give them flexibility to drop price and still not lose money on console sales even if they don't do a dockless sku.
dragonyeuw
Member
Well considering they're only pushing one machine right now which is intended to cover both markets, I'd suggest the answer to that is fairly obvious. The great thing about Switch is that if push comes to shove, Nintendo can untether the dock and grip from the main unit bundle and sell a 'handheld' SKU at a market-friendly $199 price. The Wii U, on the other hand, was based around the gamepad. So it couldn't be easily moved as you'd be left with an underpowered system( compared to Ps4/XB1) without any kind of hook whatsoever( and that hook as it was proved to be a failure at capturing the mass market).
I don't think the bolded will ever happen in the console's lifetime.
But if the MSRB of the Switch was going to drop in 2018 by $50 anyways, removing the dock/hdmi and packing in Mario Kart for 199.99 is completely within reason.
It was more because EA sandwich it between Battlefield and CoD than anything Respawn did though. TF1 showed they at least know a good chunk of the market, go back future and a good chunk of them arguably changed the entire industry with CoD 4, they at least know a little about the market.
Edit: Anyways the same logic can just as easily be used against Nintendo because outside of the Wii they haven't really hit it out the park with their home console (I know the Switch is something inbetween, but Nintendo have said the 3DS isn't going anywhere so I see it as their Wii U successor) offering for awhile.
I'm not sure what you refer to as "joy-con thingers" but there's no fan in the dock.
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Yes. It's an expensive new tablet with a 720p lowish rez screen that doesn't even run Netflix. That's some appeal.
onemanasylum
Banned
lol so true.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Its not going to be expensive forever though.
m.i.s.
Banned
What does this actually prove? You know, apart from the obvious that A console saw X no of views and B console saw Y no of views? It's not uncommon for trends to vanish as quickly as they were established.
There was a time time when people thought that there was no way NCL could go from the 101 million selling Wii to 13 million for the Wii U. But, you know, things change.
It appears that Nintendo has changed for the worse - they appear to be positioning themselves as some kind of "premium" brand and extolling "Nintendo-like" profits to their shareholders and moving far, far away from the mass market roots established by Yamauchi, Lincoln, Howard etc
chromatic9
Member
Key thing is when and if do handheld type games start appearing and dominating. If it's mainly console games then I see it doing a bit better than the Wii U but if this turns into a 3DS successor and has price drops sooner than later I can see it taking off sales wise.
Just a disclaimer, don't quote saying its a console, its a handheld, its the only machine Nintendo is releasing. We've had every theory, no one really knows yet.
Just a disclaimer, don't quote saying its a console, its a handheld, its the only machine Nintendo is releasing. We've had every theory, no one really knows yet.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
I'd be shocked if there weren't some revisions (unless it outright fails and they just give up on it). All of their handheld lines have had multiple models overtime.
GB/GB Pocket/GB Color
GBA/GBA SP/GBA Micro
DS/DS Lite/DSi
3DS/3DSXL/N3DS/N3DSXL
And that's not even getting into special editions for certain games etc. They know their fanbase will rebuy things like that, and every new form factor potentially brings in some people who'd held off/not bought in yet.
Hell, it's not just them, even Sony/MS consoles have gotten Slim versions, and now pro versions, Vita got the 2000 model revision despite being a sales failure etc.
randomengine
Banned
You act as if it doesn't play Nintendo games or that Nintendo games have little value? That's a position....I guess.
Hockeymac18
Member
The truth is very likely somewhere in the middle. They will definitely still out the first few initial shipments. I even think their 2017 holiday months will be very good (I predict either a slight price cut or a inclusion of a game by then, further spurring demand).
The question is what happens in 2018 and beyond.
That said, 40 million in ~4 years isn't overly-ridiculous.
Inferno313
Banned
smfh. Come on, dude. Of the folks who have played the system, even the ones who were less hot on it than others all praised the crispness and quality of the screen. 720p looks great when it's shrunk down to 6.2".
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
A lot of things to pick on the Switch for but the screen wouldn't be my first choice...
onemanasylum
Banned
You guys realise this site doesn't have a clue right? They predicted 100 million for x1, they predicted ps3 sales would storm past 360 in 2008/2009, etc...
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