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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report

hatchx

Banned
I'm just going to chime in and say it would be easy for Nintendo to release a standalone Switch without the base. Like a SKU with just the tablet, joy-cons, and USB-C charger - maybe 1,2,Switch pack-in. They could probably get this cost down to 199.99 or 249.99. And it's not like they couldn't buy the charging unit later.

It's much more feasible than releasing a WiiU without the gamepad, which would have required fundamental OS changes.

I think the console will sell pretty well. Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Sandbox 3D Mario, Splatoon, open-world Zelda, Lego, Minecraft all in one year. It's a portable. It has multiplayer on-the-go and out-of-the-box.

Those saying it will do worse than WiiU are insane.
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
I think the Switch we are seeing is a transitional machine to Nintendo's new strategy (NVIDIA has said they see a fruitful relationship with Nintendo for the next 20+ years). The technology is good, but imagine where it will be in the next 2 years or so - I think a Switch 2 should be able to at least achieve parity of content with other home consoles (although certainly not parity of fidelity). As the years go by, Switch tech will inevitably inch closer in functional capability to traditional graphics hardware. This is assuredly a long term play for Nintendo.

I doubt that. It would take a hell of a leap for a tablet sized device to be equivalent to graphics output by large consoles/PCs that can have big GPUs, big cooling systems etc.

I think as engine scaling continues to improve we can see them having fidelity with competitors when docked (or on their console only furture sku) that just scales down significantly for handheld play. So I agree if that's what you meant. But not on the handheld portion catching up and being equivalent to the PS5 or what not.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Never thought I would see the day. Gamers are downplaying Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Smash. Wow. Really, gaf? They would be lucky to sell 10 or 20 mil in three or four years? Hardly. It will sell 40 or 50 mil easily.

Easily.
Most of those was on WiiU and the general public couldn't care less. I can't see why they would magically go for an expensive handheld. The interest is simply not there.
 

Floody

Member
I get that..but that's one hell of a shrinkage in their market share..which IS important for all of those things you just mentioned.



So 40mil for two of their market segments (home and portable)..over 3 years? :S Sounds pretty bad to me. I would like think this is the minimum unless they introduce another successor to 3DS

The 3DS will likely keep selling in that timeframe too. And 40m over 3 years would be pretty damn good, especially as they'll have tons of accessory sales and millions of monthly subs bringing in the cash too. They'll also have their mobile games too.
 

Crayon

Member
I'm just going to chime in and say it would be easy for Nintendo to release a standalone Switch without the base. Like a SKU with just the tablet, joy-cons, and USB-C charger - maybe 1,2,Switch pack-in. They could probably get this cost down to 199.99 or 249.99. And it's not like they couldn't buy the charging unit later.

It's much more feasible than releasing a WiiU without the gamepad, which would have required fundamental OS changes.

I think the console will sell pretty well. Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Sandbox 3D Mario, Splatoon, open-world Zelda, Lego, Minecraft all in one year. It's a portable. It has multiplayer on-the-go and out-of-the-box.

Those saying it will do worse than WiiU are insane.

The dockless pack is in their back pocket, for sure. The dock goes for 90 bucks tho so i suspect only a 50 dollar break. So around when the wywtem with dock goes 249 or 199, they can drop a dockless one at 199 or 149.
 

opricnik

Banned
retail response to titanfall

7Ftm2wq.jpg


Taken during my lunch break. Today.

Are you just trolling at this point? What is TITANFALL 2 underperforming have to do with this thread?
 

Barryman

Member
I doubt that. It would take a hell of a leap for a tablet sized device to be equivalent to graphics output by large consoles/PCs that can have big GPUs, big cooling systems etc.

I think as engine scaling continues to improve we can see them having fidelity with competitors when docked (or on their console only furture sku) that just scales down significantly for handheld play. So I agree if that's what you meant. But not on the handheld portion catching up and being equivalent to the PS5 or what not.

Yeah I'm not saying it will have equivalent FLOPs or anything like that - clearly that won't be the case. But what are the PS4 Pro and the like doing with the extra horsepower? 4K? Most consumers just don't care about that.
 

novabolt

Member
I can see 35 mill at the highest if the console has a steady 2018/19/20, but not 40. I think 17 will be a tough time for Nintendo and if the Scorpio is an awesome upgrade that people just can't say no to, it will have a tough time competing with it and PS4/Pro in the holidays season.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I'm just going to chime in and say it would be easy for Nintendo to release a standalone Switch without the base. Like a SKU with just the tablet, joy-cons, and USB-C charger - maybe 1,2,Switch pack-in. They could probably get this cost down to 199.99 or 249.99. And it's not like they couldn't buy the charging unit later.
.

Why? The dock adds basically nothing to the price. You're turning it into a pure portable for no real reason.
 

Floody

Member
retail response to titanfall. The developer won't be around long.


Taken during my lunch break. Today.

I don't get it. Because TF2 didn't do too well the developers opinion doesn't matter? Should the same apply to Nintendo then considering the Wii U was a far bigger bomb than Titanfall has been for Respawn?

Oh, and I'm pretty sure Respawn have a Star Wars game in the works, so won't be going anywhere for awhile.
 

StereoVsn

Gold Member
I'm just going to chime in and say it would be easy for Nintendo to release a standalone Switch without the base. Like a SKU with just the tablet, joy-cons, and USB-C charger - maybe 1,2,Switch pack-in. They could probably get this cost down to 199.99 or 249.99. And it's not like they couldn't buy the charging unit later.

It's much more feasible than releasing a WiiU without the gamepad, which would have required fundamental OS changes.

I think the console will sell pretty well. Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Sandbox 3D Mario, Splatoon, open-world Zelda, Lego, Minecraft all in one year. It's a portable. It has multiplayer on-the-go and out-of-the-box.

Those saying it will do worse than WiiU are insane.

If Nintendo can manage to produce mobile version of the Switch (so no dock, maybe smaller screen, simplified joycons, whatever) that can hit $200 price tag sometime in 2018, then I think they can get close to the 40 mil mark (my guess more like 30-35 mil). If they cannot, then 20-25 mil.
 

farisr

Member
If this means by the end of 2020, then yeah I can see it. Even though I'm not getting it for a couple of years and think it has a bad first year ahead of it (after sales die down once the early adopters and diehards have already gotten it). I can see it hitting that actually.

Sale price or a nice bundle this holiday season --> permanent price cut early or mid next year (2018) --> 3DS support pretty much drops sometime in 2018 and Pokemon for Switch releases --> non-portable and portable-only variations release early to mid 2019 at an even cheaper price. (the portable only variation may even release earlier, alongside Pokemon if the Switch hasn't been doing that well).
 

Neoweee

Member
Why? The dock adds basically nothing to the price. You're turning it into a pure portable for no real reason.

It's probably about $20-$30 to make. Having distinct and separable Joy Cons adds to the price, as each as its own rechargeable battery, rumble, and wireless connection. Having controllers as part of the unit, and ending support for motion control, probably would save some costs.

I don't think Nintendo will go that route, though.
 
I don't get it? Because TF2 didn't do too well the developers opinion doesn't matter? Should the same apply to Nintendo then considering the Wii U was a far bigger bomb than Titanfall has been for Respawn?

Oh, and I'm pretty sure Respawn have a Star Wars game in the works, so won't be going anywhere for awhile.

Obviously they don't understand the market.
How many Star Wars games have. Even cancelled and developers shuttered while working on them? It's a graveyard.
 

m.i.s.

Banned
Never thought I would see the day. Gamers are downplaying Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Smash. Wow. Really, gaf? They would be lucky to sell 10 or 20 mil in three or four years? Hardly. It will sell 40 or 50 mil easily.

Easily.

Wii U also had Mario 2D / 3D platformers, Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon. GCN also had a similar lineup for that matter - at a much cheaper price and power parity with PS2. That did not prevent them from being commercial duds.

Many of those games are also are not exclusive to Switch or are remasters of Wii U games often costing twice as much as their disc based Wii U counterparts.

And there is just no way the next mainline Pokemon games will be Switch exclusive.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Why? The dock adds basically nothing to the price. You're turning it into a pure portable for no real reason.
It does, Nintendo sells it for $90. They could also remove the grip. They even already sell these two elements separately. In terms of packaging and supply chain, this new Sku would also cost far less.

It totally makes sense to release this SKUCat some point, should they feel the need to reduce price and increase the user base.
 

RPGam3r

Member
Most of those was on WiiU and the general public couldn't care less. I can't see why they would magically go for an expensive handheld. The interest is simply not there.

You went from comparing it against their previous console to then switching the argument and saying it's a handheld, which had far higher public appeal. Pick a side.

Also it is more than just a handheld come on.
 

hatchx

Banned
Why? The dock adds basically nothing to the price. You're turning it into a pure portable for no real reason.

The dock is like 80$ standalone. It has some internal fans, an hdmi cable, the joy-con thingers, it's plastic. I don't see why that wouldn't pull the price down by $50, and in a year or two might be a realistic proposition.

I'm just considering how they might appeal to the younger 3DS market who were buying 3DS at ~$200.
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah I'm not saying it will have equivalent FLOPs or anything like that - clearly that won't be the case. But what are the PS4 Pro and the like doing with the extra horsepower? 4K? Most consumers just don't care about that.

Not just 4K. I have a pro and just a 1080p set. Several games already with better graphics, better framerates etc. But you're right that the average joe gamer doesn't care much about that as the most powerful console hasn't always (or even most of the time) one generations.

That said, it's moot as they'll probably never compete for industry dominance again unless there's some big technology shift after VR that they get out on first.

They just failed to adapt when the market shifted westward (unlike Sony) and just don't have the genres, franchises, art styles etc. that sell to the mainstream market. It will be near impossible for them to get the mindshare to be viewed as they place to go to play games like GTA and CoD when they lack similar first party exclusives to attract those fans.

They're success really lies in maintaining their niche, bringing back lapsed Nintendo fans, and being appealing as a secondary platform to some core gamers by offering something different than what they can get on their main platform. Hopefully the Switch does that for them. But I feel the $300 price, paid online, accessory pricing etc. is a bad start on that front. But maybe that will sell well to their core fans and they can get prices down etc. when those sales dry up and they need to expand their market.

The dock is like 80$ standalone. It has some internal fans, an hdmi cable, the joy-con thingers, it's plastic. I don't see why that wouldn't pull the price down by $50, and in a year or two might be a realistic proposition.

Keep in mind that the dock and all their accessories are horribly marked up. So are controllers from MS and Sony. Accessories have always had the biggest profit margins.

So yeah, there's no way that dock even costs near $50 for them to produce in bulk. So that does give them flexibility to drop price and still not lose money on console sales even if they don't do a dockless sku.
 
If the Switch starts to falter after the initial launch sell through, which Nintendo will show up? The one that saved the 3DS, or the one let the Wii U die?

Well considering they're only pushing one machine right now which is intended to cover both markets, I'd suggest the answer to that is fairly obvious. The great thing about Switch is that if push comes to shove, Nintendo can untether the dock and grip from the main unit bundle and sell a 'handheld' SKU at a market-friendly $199 price. The Wii U, on the other hand, was based around the gamepad. So it couldn't be easily moved as you'd be left with an underpowered system( compared to Ps4/XB1) without any kind of hook whatsoever( and that hook as it was proved to be a failure at capturing the mass market).
 

opricnik

Banned
The dock is like 80$ standalone. It has some internal fans, an hdmi cable, the joy-con thingers, it's plastic. I don't see why that wouldn't pull the price down by $50, and in a year or two might be a realistic proposition.

I'm just considering how they might appeal to the younger 3DS market who were buying 3DS at ~$200.

Dock is 90$ i think standalone .
And probably cost them 5-6$ to make.
 

hatchx

Banned
If Nintendo can manage to produce mobile version of the Switch (so no dock, maybe smaller screen, simplified joycons, whatever) that can hit $200 price tag sometime in 2018, then I think they can get close to the 40 mil mark (my guess more like 30-35 mil). If they cannot, then 20-25 mil.


I don't think the bolded will ever happen in the console's lifetime.

But if the MSRB of the Switch was going to drop in 2018 by $50 anyways, removing the dock/hdmi and packing in Mario Kart for 199.99 is completely within reason.
 

Floody

Member
Obviously they don't understand the market.
How many Star Wars games have. Even cancelled and developers shuttered while working on them? It's a graveyard.

It was more because EA sandwich it between Battlefield and CoD than anything Respawn did though. TF1 showed they at least know a good chunk of the market, go back future and a good chunk of them arguably changed the entire industry with CoD 4, they at least know a little about the market.
Edit: Anyways the same logic can just as easily be used against Nintendo because outside of the Wii they haven't really hit it out the park with their home console (I know the Switch is something inbetween, but Nintendo have said the 3DS isn't going anywhere so I see it as their Wii U successor) offering for awhile.
 

purdobol

Member
Using highly scientific and complicated (I might add) method i've came to conclusion that this forecast is 10mil short.

Switch will be unexpected surprise saleswise, much too gaffers contempt.
See ya in 2020!
 

azyless

Member
The dock is like 80$ standalone. It has some internal fans, an hdmi cable, the joy-con thingers, it's plastic. I don't see why that wouldn't pull the price down by $50, and in a year or two might be a realistic proposition.
I'm not sure what you refer to as "joy-con thingers" but there's no fan in the dock.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
You went from comparing it against their previous console to then switching the argument and saying it's a handheld, which had far higher public appeal. Pick a side.

Also it is more than just a handheld come on.
Yes. It's an expensive new tablet with a 720p lowish rez screen that doesn't even run Netflix. That's some appeal.
 

Cerbero

Member
At 300$/330€ with those acccessories pricing? No way, if they pull a 3DS like price cut then yes, i think it's entirely doable.
 

m.i.s.

Banned
First Look at Nintendo Switch
Posted October 20, 2016
25,289,945 views
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5uik5fgIaI

Nintendo Wii U Trailer (E3 2011)
Posted Jun 7, 2011
11,637,048 views
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e3qaPg_keg

What does this actually prove? You know, apart from the obvious that A console saw X no of views and B console saw Y no of views? It's not uncommon for trends to vanish as quickly as they were established.

There was a time time when people thought that there was no way NCL could go from the 101 million selling Wii to 13 million for the Wii U. But, you know, things change.

It appears that Nintendo has changed for the worse - they appear to be positioning themselves as some kind of "premium" brand and extolling "Nintendo-like" profits to their shareholders and moving far, far away from the mass market roots established by Yamauchi, Lincoln, Howard etc
 
Key thing is when and if do handheld type games start appearing and dominating. If it's mainly console games then I see it doing a bit better than the Wii U but if this turns into a 3DS successor and has price drops sooner than later I can see it taking off sales wise.

Just a disclaimer, don't quote saying its a console, its a handheld, its the only machine Nintendo is releasing. We've had every theory, no one really knows yet.
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
I don't think the bolded will ever happen in the console's lifetime.

I'd be shocked if there weren't some revisions (unless it outright fails and they just give up on it). All of their handheld lines have had multiple models overtime.

GB/GB Pocket/GB Color
GBA/GBA SP/GBA Micro
DS/DS Lite/DSi
3DS/3DSXL/N3DS/N3DSXL

And that's not even getting into special editions for certain games etc. They know their fanbase will rebuy things like that, and every new form factor potentially brings in some people who'd held off/not bought in yet.

Hell, it's not just them, even Sony/MS consoles have gotten Slim versions, and now pro versions, Vita got the 2000 model revision despite being a sales failure etc.
 
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

The truth is very likely somewhere in the middle. They will definitely still out the first few initial shipments. I even think their 2017 holiday months will be very good (I predict either a slight price cut or a inclusion of a game by then, further spurring demand).

The question is what happens in 2018 and beyond.

That said, 40 million in ~4 years isn't overly-ridiculous.
 
Yes. It's an expensive new tablet with a 720p lowish rez screen that doesn't even run Netflix. That's some appeal.

smfh. Come on, dude. Of the folks who have played the system, even the ones who were less hot on it than others all praised the crispness and quality of the screen. 720p looks great when it's shrunk down to 6.2".
 
You guys realise this site doesn't have a clue right? They predicted 100 million for x1, they predicted ps3 sales would storm past 360 in 2008/2009, etc...
 
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