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[JustenP88]

It'll have Pokémon, it'll have Minecraft. Nintendo has mentioned that the hardware has been engineered to where future price drops are possible without them taking a loss. They never had that luxury with the WiiU. Iirc, it still costs them ~$90 just to manufacture the Gamepad. No bueno. Switch, as a platform, is scalable.

I think 40 million in ~4 years would be great for Nintendo and it's absolutely doable. The hybrid concept, and their execution of it, has legs and it introduces a consideration to the value-proposition that might be more compelling than GAF's "durrr, how many gigaflopz? Fuck you Nintendo you're stupid." argument. As eloquent and original as those gripes may be, I think the general consumer won't be too concerned with that vs the other, unique advantages this hardware offers.

This is NeoGAF.

People predicting Switch at ~10M are predicting the end of Nintendo as a hardware manufacturer.

They're projecting their desires out as predictions. Nintendo would've had to announce a console with power that rivals the PS4 Pro at half the price to, maybe, shut these people the hell up.

 

[Milly Osworth]

It will sell more.

Or less.

 

[Barryman]

It's a handheld and the majority of its sales potential is as a handheld. There's a reason the games people are expecting to sell it are primarily handheld titles like Pokemon. If those games weren't there, we'd be looking at Wii U 2.

It has virtually no support from third parties for home console games.

I would agree with you in that it does not appear to be a competitor to the other home consoles (PS4 and Xbox One), but that makes it no different than the past several home Nintendo consoles.

Would it more marketable with better 3rd party support? No question. Does that mean it's a handheld? Absolutely not.

Furthermore I would argue that future hardware iterations of the Switch are well-positioned to eat Sony and Microsoft's lunch in the home console market.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Yeah this is what i've been saying. A cheap/handheld sku is where the sales are going to be coming from.

Yeah, I think from Iwata's comments about wanting a family of devices, and being a bit dimissive of a hybrid at one point, that he more envisioned having a console and portable that shared games.

I feel that was his plan, and after his death they decided it was too hard to market separate devices and really wanted a simple message after the terrible Wii U naming and marketing, and went the hybrid route.

I do think they'll revisit it down the road, at least if sales slow down. If the Switch sku ends up selling great long term, then there's no reason to muddle the messsage. But if it slows down I'd be shocked if we didn't see a cheaper redesigned portable only model and a cheap console only model. Relatively easy I to do and market when it's not at launch and can be more appealing pricewise to people who only game on consoles or only on portables by being cheaper and less compromised (smaller portable, more storage in console version etc.) than the hybrid.

But really, I think the main fuck up is the focus on waggle, the IR camera, HD rumble etc. That's what's really driving costs up and I just don't see a lot of games/gamers really using those that much. Take those out and this could be $250 easy and much more attractive pricewise. As well as extra controller pairs being way cheaper than $80.

 

[ThatStupidLion]

I'm imagining this getting an exclusive Yokai Watch game.

this switch needs the software support the nintendo handhelds have received over the years or else... womp womp.

 

[randomengine]

One that is priced like a console.

So was the Vita. Will be beloved by the same audience or is the bias against it that strong? I guess time will tell.

 

[Kacho]

I'm beginning to think the Switch will be a hit. The potential is there and most reactions I've been seeing online have been positive. I could easily see this outselling the 3DS when all is said and done.

 

[Barryman]

Yeah, I think from Iwata's comments about wanting a family of devices, and being a bit dimissive of a hybrid at one point, that he more envisioned having a console and portable that shared games.

I feel that was his plan, and after his death they decided it was too hard to market separate devices and really wanted a simple message after the terrible Wii U naming and marketing, and went the hybrid route.

I do think they'll revisit it down the road, at least if sales slow down. If the Switch sku ends up selling great long term, then there's no reason to muddle the messsage. But if it slows down I'd be shocked if we didn't see a cheaper redesigned portable only model and a cheap console only model. Relatively easy I to do and market when it's not at launch and can be more appealing pricewise to people who only game on consoles or only on portables by being cheaper and less compromised (smaller portable, more storage in console version etc.) than the hybrid.

But really, I think the main fuck up is the focus on waggle, the IR camera, HD rumble etc. That's what's really driving costs up and I just don't see a lot of games/gamers really using those that much. Take those out and this could be $250 easy and much more attractive pricewise. As well as extra controller pairs being way cheaper than $80.

When the iPhone launched there was one SKU. Now there are like 6-10 iOS SKUs in Apple's lineup at any given moment.

I don't have any reason to believe that launching with one SKU means they've deviated from the original plan.

 

[wildfire]

My prediction is that 40m will be far surpassed.

Well the 3DS stumbled right out the gate so as long as E3 is solid they probably could pull it off. If E3 is a disaster and by that I mean there still is a lack of proper support from even major Japanese devs and Activision, Ubisoft and Take 2 and Nintendo only has Mario and Pokemon in the pipeline then that indicates a huge problem creating and getting software. The months October through March '18 can't look as barren as March through July '17 looks now.

 

[Jacce]

Seriously, you see tons of people in every switch thread claim they are going to cancel their preorder. I am not trying to troll. How can it sell out at launch with all these people cancelling it? It does not add up.

 

[Crayon]

It's expensive for a handheld, has no third party support, and is another online subscription. The most appealing thing about it is that it will some day get the Nintendo handheld exclusives.

They way I saw it, to does a really good job of combining nintendo's handheld and console lines. Has a pleasing design. And two kids can play on it at once.

The price is 50 bucks more than many expected, and the online fee is unfortunate but as we know, free online is leaving money on the table. The third party support is going to be different from ps4 but by inheriting 3ds and vita development, it will be healthy in it's own way.

We have a lot of people here who seem to be sure that this in on track to sell like wii u. I don't know where you stand on that but I think that's a laugh. I can easily see it selling faster than xbox1 which we for some reason consider a universe apart from the wii u in terms of success.

 

[randomengine]

The Switch will force every developer to ha e to answer whether they will make a portable version of their PS4/XBO game for at least the next 5 years.

 

[Floody]

If Pokemon goes Switch exclusive and back to yearly releases maybe, otherwise nah at best it'll do XB1 numbers.

 

[AniHawk]

Seriously, you see tons of people in every switch thread claim they are going to cancel their preorder. I am not trying to troll. How can it sell out at launch with all these people cancelling it? It does not add up.

because neogaf represents a niche part of the overall market. hands-on impressions have been positive and the main issues are questions about online, price, and the launch lineup - the latter two being increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

people expecting a wii u level failure are going to be off the mark. the wii u had enormous problems one after another that the switch doesn't share.

 

[Barryman]

Seriously, you see tons of people in every switch thread claim they are going to cancel their preorder. I am not trying to troll. How can it sell out at launch with all these people cancelling it? It does not add up.

Because the posts you are seeing in all likelihood represent a fraction of a percent of the market. Don't lend significance to self-selected anecdotal evidence.

 

[gate stormer]

Seems possible, but only time will tell. There's already a lot more buzz surrounding the system than there was with WiiU around launch.

Plus as others have mentioned, if this gradually replaces 3ds then there will be that dedicated handheld market cornered even more by a solitary device.

First party output this year is already looking solid and thats just what has been announced so far. 2017 is just beginning.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

We'll see that first year before we make that olympic goal.

 

[Kacho]

Seriously, you see tons of people in every switch thread claim they are going to cancel their preorder. I am not trying to troll. How can it sell out at launch with all these people cancelling it? It does not add up.

It's NeoGAF lol

Any cancelled preorders will get put back up at some point, sell out and the world will move on.

 

[cyberheater]

Yep. Not going to happen.

 

[Neoweee]

Seriously, you see tons of people in every switch thread claim they are going to cancel their preorder. I am not trying to troll. How can it sell out at launch with all these people cancelling it? It does not add up.

There will be a shortage in the launch shipment, because $300 is completely on par or with ~15% or so (inflation adjusted) with most of Nintendo's previous launches (excepting NES and SNES), while also having a much better launch lineup than several Nintendo consoles, almost exclusively on the back of Zelda.

 

[Team Filler]

.

 

[Floody]

Seriously, you see tons of people in every switch thread claim they are going to cancel their preorder. I am not trying to troll. How can it sell out at launch with all these people cancelling it? It does not add up.

Because Gaf is just a tiny bubble in the grand scheme of the gaming industry.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

I believe it'll sell more than the Wii U, probably in the first year alone.

 

[onemanasylum]

So was the Vita. Will be beloved by the same audience or is the bias against it that strong? I guess time will tell.

Problem is not that it will be beloved, it's a very small audience.

 

[Toxi]

The Switch will force every developer to ha e to answer whether they will make a portable version of their PS4/XBO game for at least the next 5 years.

See Titanfall developer response

 

[Okami Haundo]

There will always be market for Switch due to its exclusives and portability. However, Nintendo's anti-consumer stance this time around is really bothering me

Care to elaborate?

 

[Cidd]

The Switch will force every developer to ha e to answer whether they will make a portable version of their PS4/XBO game for at least the next 5 years.

So what you're saying is Switch will be Wii U 2 because only Japanese devs are going to develop for it.

 

[psyfi]

50 million minimum. Calling it.

 

[Oregano]

I think 40 million in that timeframe would be surprisingly good.

They'd have to do a lot to add value there.

 

[Hidden One]

It'll be lucky to reach 10 million in 2 years.

 

[Lexxism]

It will sell more.

Or less.

Either way this kind thread is going to be fun or the next 3-4 years.

 

[Kimawolf]

im going with 45 to 50 million by then as well. it is,reminding me a lot of the Wii lead up. hated online but every one who tries it loves it and gets it.


they get the software right and yeah I can see it.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Seems overly optimistic.

im going with 45 to 50 million by then as well. it is,reminding me a lot of the Wii lead up. hated online but every one who tries it loves it and gets it.


they get the software right and yeah I can see it.

There is nothing to try. It's either an expensive underpowered console or a really expensive powerful handheld depending on your perspective.

 

[Inferno313]

So what you're saying is Switch will be Wii U 2 because only Japanese devs are going to develop for it.

More like 3DS and Vita 2.

WiiU's third-party support was non-existent. Western, or Japanese.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

People say this, and I'm 100% sure it's conjecture. Like, what are you basing this on? Who are these "people" who would find this so difficult?

My point is that the 3DS, while slightly smaller than the Switch, managed to exist just fine as a "portable" system, and people didn't seem to have aneurysms trying to figure out how to carry it around.

I just don't know what's so difficult, and to everyone speaking on behalf of what "the people" want, I'd like to see how your personal market research stacks up to Nintendo's.

I mean the ENTIRE appeal of smartphones (and tablets) is that it's an all in one device. You can handle all your communication needs (phone, texts, e-mail, facebook messenger, skype and every other communications app), be your music player, give you games to kill time when stuck in line or on plane, be your camera, be your calendar/PDA etc.

As such it's greatly shrank dedicated device markets like stand alone MP3 players, PDAs, lower end digital cameras (pocket cameras). They're doing the same with dedicated gaming portables, with just more core gamers still buying them (like more serious photography people buying nice digital cameras), and a lot of the more casual players (people that loved Tetris or Brain Age or Nintendogs) finding the games good enough. And Nintendo could hurt themselves there with some former fans finding their mobile apps "good enough" to scratch their itch. Why would they pay $300 for a Switch and lug it around if there phone is a good enough time waster?

I agree the size over 3DS isn't a barrier for the serious portable gamer. But at the same time, I work at a University with over 30,000 full time students on my campus and I haven't seen anyone playing a 3DS or Vita in a couple of years, while people were (and still are but fewer) catching Pokemon all over the place. So I think a lot of portable use is just at home/on out of town trips as people just don't like lugging gadgets around. Unless you've got a long public transit commute, most people don't have the downtime out and about to make lugging a portable around worth it. Much less a bigger one.

As for market research, Nintendo's is clearly fucking terrible at that outside of the magic they pulled off with the Wii and DS. Makes me wonder if they just got lucky that time or if those people left the company.

Ignoring that post NES they've:

-Had a failed partnership with Sony that give birth to their most dominant competitor
-Stuck with carts in the CD era
-Went with proprietary discs for the GameCube, when DVDs were exploding and helped sell PS2s like crazy
-Named the Wii U the Wii U, thought people would be attracted to that "tablet" thought there was a burning desire for offtv play in the West (especially US) where people have big houses and multiple TVs etc.

How do you know so much? You can see the future? I'm just wondering because you don't know how it will play out.

Of course I'm just speculating like everyone else. I find this fun, and will be fun to look back down the road and see how right or wrong we all were.

When the iPhone launched there was one SKU. Now there are like 6-10 iOS SKUs in Apple's lineup at any given moment.

I don't have any reason to believe that launching with one SKU means they've deviated from the original plan.

True. Maybe this was the original plan. Just seems risky to me as it's so flawed for everyone but hardcore people that want to game on TV and portables. For the console only crowd it's overpriced, underpowered, lacking storage etc. For the portable only it's very big compared to past portables, has middling battery life and is also overpriced at $300 given the Vita and 3DS failed to sell at $250 (and portable only folk don't care about console mode).

But only time will tell. Maybe it will do gangbusters and the concept has mass appeal among millineals that I"m admittedly (and fucking willingly) out of touch with. And/or there's enough suckers like me that love Nintendo games enough to bend over again and overpay for hardware we dislike to play their top notch games (though that clearly didn't work for Wii U).

 

[B.O.O.M]

I mean, I haven't followed the switch news as closely as many here so pardon me if I'm off base, isn't this system basically replacing both their handheld and home console products? (I know the 3ds will stick around for a while but still)

if so..wouldn't this be a disastrous number even if it's reached?

 

[Kuosi]

Maybe if they cut the price in half, otherwise snowballs chance in hell.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I mean, I haven't followed the switch news as closely as many here so pardon me if I'm off base, isn't this system basically replacing both their handheld and home console products? (I know the 3ds will stick around for a while but still)

if so..wouldn't this be a disastrous number even if it's reached?

The number of systems sold isnt telling the entire story. Sony sold 80 million PS3s and that thing was a disaster that lost them billions of dollars.

Is the system being sold for a profit? (yes) How many first party games did you sell? Whats the software attach ratio? How many online subs do you have? how many accessories did you sell? Whats the hardware failure rate?

There's alot that goes into it, 40 million LTD wouldnt be a bad number for Nintendo if things go well for them.

 

[FreedomFighter]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

GAF =/= general public

 

[Missingnomer]

Never thought I would see the day. Gamers are downplaying Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Smash. Wow. Really, gaf? They would be lucky to sell 10 or 20 mil in three or four years? Hardly. It will sell 40 or 50 mil easily.

Easily.

 

[LordRaptor]

See Titanfall developer response

With a hugely expensive and public lawsuit around setting them up, and two swings at the plate so far, realistically their next project is whatever the fuck EA tells them to make, whether they like it or not.

 

[Barryman]

True. Maybe this was the original plan. Just seems risky to me as it's so flawed for everyone but hardcore people that want to game on TV and portables. For the console only crowd it's overpriced, underpowered, lacking storage etc. For the portable only it's very big compared to past portables, has middling battery life and is also overpriced at $300 given the Vita and 3DS failed to sell at $250 (and portable only folk don't care about console mode).

But only time will tell. Maybe it will do gangbusters and the concept has mass appeal among millineals that I"m admittedly (and fucking willingly) out of touch with. And/or there's enough suckers like me that love Nintendo games enough to bend over again and overpay for hardware we dislike to play their top notch games (though that clearly didn't work for Wii U).

I think the Switch we are seeing is a transitional machine to Nintendo's new strategy (NVIDIA has said they see a fruitful relationship with Nintendo for the next 20+ years). The technology is good, but imagine where it will be in the next 2 years or so - I think a Switch 2 should be able to at least achieve parity of content with other home consoles (although certainly not parity of fidelity). As the years go by, Switch tech will inevitably inch closer in functional capability to traditional graphics hardware. This is assuredly a long term play for Nintendo.

 

[Vital Tundra]

More than reasonable.

 

[Crayon]

I mean, I haven't followed the switch news as closely as many here so pardon me if I'm off base, isn't this system basically replacing both their handheld and home console products? (I know the 3ds will stick around for a while but still)

if so..wouldn't this be a disastrous number even if it's reached?

Probably not disastrous but you could say it's conservative. It would hopefully be getting ready for a strong year by the time it reached 40 mil in 2020.

 

[opricnik]

The Switch will force every developer to ha e to answer whether they will make a portable version of their PS4/XBO game for at least the next 5 years.

"protecting the average person from the looming threat of Japanese cultural contamination
"

R-right but about that , they were ready to leave PS4/XBO Behind and continue with PRO/Scorpio. So luck next time.

 

[notaskwid]

The Switch will force every developer to ha e to answer whether they will make a portable version of their PS4/XBO game for at least the next 5 years.

lol, GTA sales will go down the toilet drain.

 

[opricnik]

With a hugely expensive and public lawsuit around setting them up, and two swings at the plate so far, realistically their next project is whatever the fuck EA tells them to make, whether they like it or not.

I am pretty sure EA said they have no Switch game plans outside of FIFA so EA wont tell them to make Switch games out of sudden.

 

[B.O.O.M]

The number of systems sold isnt telling the entire story. Sony sold 80 million PS3s and that thing was a disaster that lost them billions of dollars.

Is the system being sold for a profit? (yes) How many first party games did you sell? Whats the software attach ratio? How many online subs do you have? how many accessories did you sell? Whats the hardware failure rate?

There's alot that goes into it, 40 million LTD wouldnt be a bad number for Nintendo if things go well for them.

I get that..but that's one hell of a shrinkage in their market share..which IS important for all of those things you just mentioned.

Probably not disastrous but you could say it's conservative. It would hopefully be getting ready for a strong year by the time it reached 40 mil in 2020.

So 40mil for two of their market segments (home and portable)..over 3 years? :S Sounds pretty bad to me. I would like think this is the minimum unless they introduce another successor to 3DS

 

[LordRaptor]

R-right but about that , they were ready to leave PS4/XBO Behind and continue with PRO/Scorpio. So luck next time.

Which upcoming games are Pro / Scorpio only?
That's a pretty brave platform choice to go with.

e:

I am pretty sure EA said they have no Switch game plans outside of FIFA so EA wont tell them to make Switch games out of sudden.

I didn't say they are, I'm saying they're not in a position where they can act like, well, Rockstar, and pick and choose what they feel like working on.

 

[randomengine]

See Titanfall developer response

retail response to titanfall. The developer won't be around long.

Taken during my lunch break. Today.