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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report

B

Barryman

Member
m.i.s. said:
What does this actually prove? You know, apart from the obvious that A console saw X no of views and B console say Y no of views? It's not uncommon for trends to vanish as quickly as they were established.

There was a time time when people thought that there was no way NCL could go from the 101 million selling Wii to 13 million for the Wii U. But, you know, things change.

I think Nintendo has changed for worse - they appear to be positioning themselves as some kind of "premium" brand and extolling "Nintendo-like" profits to their shareholders and moving far, far away from the mass market roots established by Yamauchi, Lincoln, Howard etc
Click to expand...

It actually proves there is far more interest in the Switch than there was in the WiiU.
 
farmerboy

farmerboy

Member
First of all it needs games, which I don't see. Secondly, it needs 3rd party support, which is a 50/50 proposition at best right now. Pokemon Zelda Mario. They'll all do well but if 3rd parties don't get a look in then that support will dry up quick smart.

It's an intriguing design but when something tries to be all things to all people then its never really good at any one thing.

Hope it doesn't fail but 10 mil a year is optimistic.
 
Jaguar Victory

Jaguar Victory

Member
Yeah, that's pretty

L2AkOdq.gif
 
H

hatchx

Banned
azyless said:
I'm not sure what you refer to as "joy-con thingers" but there's no fan in the dock.
Click to expand...

Really? How do games run better when in docked mode then? Is it just because it's not running on battery and using the 720p display? I didn't know this...


dmaul1114 said:
I'd be shocked if there weren't some revisions (unless it outright fails and they just give up on it). All of their handheld lines have had multiple models overtime.

GB/GB Pocket/GB Color
GBA/GBA SP/GBA Micro
DS/DS Lite/DSi
3DS/3DSXL/N3DS/N3DSXL

And that's not even getting into special editions for certain games etc. They know their fanbase will rebuy things like that, and every new form factor potentially brings in some people who'd held off/not bought in yet.

Hell, it's not just them, even Sony/MS consoles have gotten Slim versions, and now pro versions, Vita got the 2000 model revision despite being a sales failure etc.
Click to expand...

I agree, I just don't think they will change the fundamentals of the joy-con so that it can be backwards compatible with the entire library. None of your examples removed control apparatus.

Also you are probably right about the display size, but I'd wager it would still work if docked in the OG base dock.
 
F

Floody

Member
Barryman said:
It actually proves there is far more interest in the Switch than there was in the WiiU.
Click to expand...

Yes and no. There's no real way to know how many of those Switch views are from ads that play before someone's video, that most people just skip. The Wii U were probably all legitimate though as I don't think YouTube allowed companies to pay to make the video an ad back then.
 
B

Barryman

Member
notaskwid said:
There's more interest? Or was better advertised? Either way it can or not translate to sales.
Click to expand...

The post I was responding to was questioning whether there was any more interest in the Switch than there was in the WiiU. I'm pretty sure there is a definitive answer to that question - that's all my post was intended to illustrate...
 
G

GameAddict411

Member
I don't see that happening. The mobile market has changed significantly since the 3DS launched. Nintendo won't ever see numbers like those ever again with how much smartphones have taken over. The Switch price point won't make accessible either and it will not appeal to most XO and PS4 users. I honestly don't see many people picking one up apart from Nintendo fans. It's just going to flop pretty badly IMO
 
A

azyless

Member
hatchx said:
Really? How do games run better when in docked mode then? Is it just because it's not running on battery and using the 720p display? I didn't know this...
Click to expand...
My guess is it either detects when there's video output through HDMI or there's some proprietary handshake in the dock. But other than that it's a pretty basic USB hub.
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
randomengine said:
You act as if it doesn't play Nintendo games or that Nintendo games have little value? That's a position....I guess.
Click to expand...

No, they were arguing that being a tablet didn't add value to that since it lacks key tablet features (at least at launch).

Moot for me anyway as this will rarely leave the house--only for out of town trips, and even then not for most of them as I'm just not that into gaming that I feel a need to play more than I already do at home. I certainly wouldn't use it as a tablet in place of my iPad pro 9.7 either, regardless of what apps etc. it had even when traveling and would be lugging both along. As well as my e-ink Kindle. Which is why I'm unlikely to take it often. I already lug multiple gadgets and gaming isn't a high priority outside the home for me.
 
W

wildfire

Banned
B.O.O.M said:
I mean, I haven't followed the switch news as closely as many here so pardon me if I'm off base, isn't this system basically replacing both their handheld and home console products? (I know the 3ds will stick around for a while but still)

if so..wouldn't this be a disastrous number even if it's reached?
Click to expand...

Disastrous? No. That would put it on par with 3DS growth and would mean in 3 years they outdid the Gamecube.


But selling only as well as the 3DS instead of the 3DS and Wii U combined is still under-performing what it should be doing.



m.i.s. said:
What does this actually prove? You know, apart from the obvious that A console saw X no of views and B console saw Y no of views? It's not uncommon for trends to vanish as quickly as they were established.
Click to expand...

He's proving that there is drastically higher interest in the Switch before the price reveal which was half the point he was arguing against. The other half was about the price but it's harder to gauge market reaction to that.
 
H

hatchx

Banned
azyless said:
My guess is it either detects when there's video output through HDMI or there's some proprietary handshake in the dock. But other than that it's a pretty basic USB hub.
Click to expand...


I suppose they are just limiting the output when in handheld mode....to save battery?
 
m.i.s.

m.i.s.

Banned
Barryman said:
It actually proves there is far more interest in the Switch than there was in the WiiU.
Click to expand...

The point is, will that translate to sales? Did the Wii's sales translate to Wii U? It's just an N press blurb / reveal when no details of the device were revealed.
 
m.i.s.

m.i.s.

Banned
wildfire said:
He's proving that there is drastically higher interest in the Switch before the price reveal which was half the point he was arguing against. The other half was about the price but it's harder to gauge market reaction to that.
Click to expand...

Are these unique views?
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
I wonder what Nintendo's expectations are. Do they expect it to make up sales for a console and a handheld?
 
P

protomouse

Member
Raylan said:
According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one :p

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.
Click to expand...

Why does everything have to be binary? The USP of the Switch hardware is the versatility it offers out of the box. Whatever PR Nintendo puts out in order to appease the market is not something to get hung up on. The majority of Nintendo's marketing material shows the device removed from the dock, brought on public transportation, and played outdoors. Ever since the reveal trailer, Nintendo's messaging has been crystal clear: it's a device that allows you to keep playing while you're on the move, as opposed to the more confined traditional home console experience.

The pocket argument is just silly. The English language defines two different terms: "portable" and "pocketable". Something not being pocketable (i.e. most gadgets, particularly if you're like me and prefer slim fit) does not preclude it being viewed as portable. It's such a weird angle to be coming from - particularly given the increased demand for increased sizes of traditionally pocketable devices.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I mean, this may not be THAT far fetched. Remember, this will be the first Nintendo console to have a proper Pokeyman game.
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Duxxy3 said:
I wonder what Nintendo's expectations are. Do they expect it to make up sales for a console and a handheld?
Click to expand...

Based on an older estimate report (This was before we knew the name and details), Nintendo apparently expected 10 million sales by the end of either the year or the fiscal year. So I guess it's in line with that if they don't expect a YoY decline by 2018.
 
T

TS-08

Member
notaskwid said:
Still sold double the WiiU in less time with less youtube views.
Click to expand...

Sure, but it took a complete reversal of policies and philosophy and massive price cuts to get there. I'd say the views for that video pretty accurately reflect how much interest there was in the Xbox One leading up to release and immediately thereafter. The distinction between it and the Wii U in sales may say a lot about how the two companies reacted differently to their systems' failure to launch, but it doesn't say much of anything with respect to prelaunch interest.
 
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