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Georgia's 6th Congressional District Special Election |OT| Round 2: Fight!
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
Did someone say there were only 192k votes last time? This would be pretty impossible total to overcome at this point if that's true. But guessing voter are also up given the attention. The 39% precinct total wouldn't make much sense in that case either.
They don't need to care about it, in fact I hope they don't. It means they are ignoring warning signs.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The SC race was never going to be a victory ever in a million years.
The GOP (and everyone else) would be stupid to ignore such a huge shift in a single random district. These are warning signs for the GOP to panic. If they ignore them, it's on them when 2018 is a D+10 Wave and they take the House and maybe the Senate.
It's pretty much the exact pattern we saw in Kansas while back. Low attention allowed for high Democratic mobilization without triggering a conservative backlash. Not enough to win in either case, but the electoral sneak attack is potent, unlike GA and to a lesser extent MT, where high attention let conservatives know they were under threat so they could turn out in turn.
Only people who don't know what they're talking about think getting close is just a moral victory.
RPGCrazied
Member
Oh well, another loss. We weren't expected to win this one. This isn't whats bothering me, is listening to Trump gloat about this win on twitter that has me raging early.
plagiarize
Banned
Until we win one, basically.
Such is the power of denial for the GOP, and pessimism for the dems.
TheCochese
Banned
If you want to look at it solely negatively, you could say that Republicans rally when it really matters. That these results aren't indicative of the House flipping next year, but them doing just enough to get by.
I don't know if I subscribe to that. There's way too much time between then and now to draw conclusions. There is a Democratic shift, it's just a matter of how much and what news will influence that.
I don't know if I subscribe to that. There's way too much time between then and now to draw conclusions. There is a Democratic shift, it's just a matter of how much and what news will influence that.
SolidSnakex
Member
It still doesn't mean shit just like it doesn't mean shit that Hillary got more votes than Trump. He won and they won. Until Democrats actually start winning these things, then it really doesn't matter.
Lord Frieza
Member
We're half reporting in and Handel is almost a full 4 points ahead now. This is turning out worse than expected unless there's a surge coming.
reelbigtink
Member
I was hoping we were turning a corner but it looks like Republicans are just as stupid and frothing at the mouth to vote as ever.
Democrats aren't supposed to be winning these races, even in a scenario where they win the house in 2018.
maabus1999
Member
SC-05 is under 3% at 93% in. That is crazy.
balladofwindfishes
Member
These results (and all of the "losses" over the last few months) are indicative of the Democrats taking the House.
RumbleHumble
Banned
Channel that fucking rage local.
TheCochese
Banned
Well, tonight isn't a total loss.
Important to note distinction between trends and predictions.
It absolutely "means shit." I cannot understand how the fuck people are so desperate to be negative they can't even reason a little bit.
If a district that was R +20 is now R +5, is that important? What do you think that suggests? What can we hope for in an R +10 district?
People need to fucking pay attention and stop tripping over themselves to drop their real talk bullshit on everyone.
neurosisxeno
Member
The point is it's a barometer for how the political climate is trending. No Democrats are expecting them to run the board on Republicans in Special Elections, because Democrats always struggle more when elections are at random times/days. When turnout goes up, Democrats win more. As it stands, we've got a bunch of R+5, 10, 15, 20+ districts that Democrats are losing by single digits, during a voting period that heavily favors Republicans. Now imagine turnout goes up substantially and people have seen that Democrats can win these places. In 2018 anything that would normally be "Leans Republican" or even some that are generally "Safe Republican" are going to be seats up for grabs. That means Democrats just need to flip anything that's R+5 and lower and can likely take the House back.
balladofwindfishes
Member
These areas were never meant to be this close at all. These are all solid red areas the Democrats keep losing. But they're not losing them by solid red margins.
Is she? She is massively anti-abortion, and that makes her a fantastic candidate for republicans. A great number of Republicans are single-issue voters on that, they refuse to do anything except vote against the "Party of Death".
Politically speaking, she's fairly bog-standard Republican from what I've seen.
SC is a lot closer than it had any business being but Ossoff looks like he'll underperform his polling. The national exposure definitely got the Dems to show up but the Repubs once again showed they will continue to show up. SC being so damn close does show that dems are energized everywhere, imo.
Lord Frieza
Member
Handel is over 5 points ahead now. She's on her path to doing well over what was expected. I was expecting Ossoff to lose, but the fact that it's not even going to be close is a bummer.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Ossoff has more "likely votes" remaining so it isnt over yet.
Tarkus
Member
She is not a great candidate to those in Georgia tbf
you take everything that is negative and exaggerate it and take anything positive and say it doesnt matter. NYT is predicting handel +2.5%
Lord Frieza
Member
I'm just reporting what I'm seeing. She's steadily been going up over the last half hour or so.
And now shes back down again. These things go in waves based on what districts are reporting.
StrikeNinja24
Banned
That's a fallacy of probability. There's no proof that one race being closer means another one will follow the same pattern. They are each individual races. That +10 district could jump to +20 or +2 or whatever other number at, at least in theory, the same amount of probability.
What you're doing is just making yourself feel better. Does it show progress? Absolutely, and that should be commended. But let's not act like it's a victory for anyone but republicans.
fredrancour
Member
Appointees are selected from seats that are unlikely to be won by the opposition. These special elections are in the seats republican advisors told trump it'd be impossible to lose. I really hope republican strategists dismiss the blueshift here as thoroughly as you do. In practice, anyone who'd say "shit I'll lose my seat by sticking with trump" from a 1% payoff victory should probably be saying that to a 2% ossof loss. if knowledge of a probable blue wave isn't stopping the with a 22 seat majority, it wouldn't with a 21 seat majority.
BlazinSkatinAxel
Member
That flash flood in 6th district affected the voting today.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Special elections can be indicative of trends going into the next year's midterm.
What I mean is that she came into the race with lots of baggage and not the best reputation. Plus she has zero charisma. I really think Ossoff should have just moved back to his district. It's a ridiculous error on an otherwise well run campaign.
It has nothing to do with probability, it shows national trends, regional trends and demographic trends.
Lord Frieza
Member
On 538, she's still the same. That's what I'm looking at.
maabus1999
Member
WTF with the results between 538, CNN, and NYT. None match up even close.
A fallacy of probability? Is that a joke?
These races are consistently closer than they were previously. We haven't had an election since November, as far as I know, that hasn't trended toward D. There are polling numbers around the country showing generic D up by a lot. These races are bearing out those numbers. Large republican majorities are shrinking. That is NOT a victory for them and you can guarantee they aren't treating it like one when they have frank discussions in strategy meetings.
Please, please, please work to know what's going. Please.
Lord Frieza
Member
Lol, I think that Silver's last post sums all this up well
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